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olivLaw · US equity research

Adecoagro S.A. AGRO

Agricultural Production-Crops · SIC 0100 · Vertical: Agricultural Production-Crops (SIC 0100)

9.23USD−2.94% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Adecoagro is a South American agro-industrial group operating in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, combining crop and dairy production, industrial processing and nitrogen fertilizers. Its relevance grew after the December 2025 acquisition of Profertil, which positions it as a major urea and ammonia producer, while capital expenditures in fiscal 2025 were also high.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) stock was 9.23 USD (−2.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, P/E 10.3 on diluted EPS of 0.90 USD over the last 12 months, beta -0.00, 52-week range 7.13–15.25 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.3 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
10.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.90 · TTM to 31 Dec 2024
E/P (TTM)
9.71%
TTM to 31 Dec 2024
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
-0.00
Volatility (1y) 51%
52-week range
7.1315.25

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
32.9
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
9.20 – 10.59
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.02 · band width 14.1%
SMA 50 / 200
10.64 / 11.04
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.29 / -0.26
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−14.1%−1.1%−13.0 pp—
3 months−0.6%−0.5%−0.2 pp—
6 months−33.2%+4.4%−37.6 pp—
Year to date+16.4%+12.3%+4.1 pp—
1 year+20.8%+13.5%+7.3 pp−26.0%
3 years−16.6%+76.4%−93.0 pp−31.5%
5 years+1.0%+63.7%−62.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−41.6%
30 Mar 2026 → 14 Aug 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−46.1%
18 Apr 2022 → 14 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+0.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 43 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 5.3, median 10.5, max 2,266.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20172018201920202021202220232024
Revenue933.2 m793.2 m887.1 m817.8 m1.1 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.5 bn
Revenue YoY+7.4%−15.0%+11.8%−7.8%+37.5%+19.9%−3.6%+16.9%
Net income13.2 m-24.6 m-772.0 k412.0 k130.7 m108.1 m226.3 m92.3 m
Net income YoY+14.1%−286.6%unavailableunavailable+31,615.8%−17.2%+109.3%−59.2%
Diluted EPS0.11-0.21-0.010.001.130.982.110.90
Diluted EPS YoY+14.9%−295.4%unavailableunavailable+37,566.7%−13.4%+115.0%−57.4%
net %1.4%-3.1%-0.1%0.1%11.6%8.0%17.4%6.1%
Free cash flow38.6 m11.4 m69.7 m88.6 m149.4 m152.3 m193.3 m68.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024

Cash
211.2 m USD
Financial debt
680.0 m USD
Net debt
468.8 m USD
Equity
1.4 bn USD
Total assets
3.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.48x
Current ratio
2.54x
ROE
6.9%
ROA
2.9%
FCF margin
4.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2022
1.3 bn
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2022
1.1 bn
2023
973.2 m
2024
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Gross profit
2022
465.6 m
2023
415.4 m
2024
434.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Operating income
2022
249.8 m
2023
241.6 m
2024
182.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2022
155.8 m
2023
158.1 m
2024
189.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

EBITDA
2022
405.6 m ≈
2023
399.7 m ≈
2024
371.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025derived

Interest expense
2022
137.6 m
2023
122.1 m
2024
166.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2022
135.4 m
2023
305.4 m
2024
35.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Income tax
2022
26.8 m
2023
78.7 m
2024
-57.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Net income
2022
108.1 m
2023
226.3 m
2024
92.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2022
0.98
2023
2.11
2024
0.90

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2022
110.4 m
2023
107.5 m
2024
103.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2022
230.7 m
2023
339.8 m
2024
211.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Receivables
2022
183.8 m
2023
179.1 m
2024
213.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Inventories
2022
274.0 m
2023
256.1 m
2024
289.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Current assets
2022
1.0 bn
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2022
1.6 bn
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Total assets
2022
3.1 bn
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Accounts payable
2022
242.4 m
2023
190.7 m
2024
206.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Long-term debt
2022
728.0 m
2023
697.8 m
2024
680.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Current liabilities
2022
610.9 m
2023
494.1 m
2024
400.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Total liabilities
2022
1.9 bn
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Equity
2022
1.2 bn
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2022
108.2 m
2023
106.0 m
2024
100.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2022
370.0 m
2023
434.9 m
2024
328.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Capex
2022
217.8 m
2023
241.6 m
2024
260.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Free cash flow
2022
152.3 m ≈
2023
193.3 m ≈
2024
68.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2022
-299.3 m
2023
-111.6 m
2024
-231.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2022
-23.6 m
2023
-208.7 m
2024
-274.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Share repurchases
2022
36.8 m
2023
26.2 m
2024
66.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Revenue CAGR 3Y
10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
EBIT growth (YoY)
-24.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net income growth (YoY)
-59.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net income CAGR 3Y
-10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-57.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
EPS CAGR 3Y
-7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-64.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Profitability

Gross margin
28.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
EBITDA margin
24.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
EBIT margin
12.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net margin
6.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
FCF margin
4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Returns

ROE
7.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROA
2.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROIC
8.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROCE
6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
468.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Net debt / EBITDA
1.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Interest coverage
1.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Quick ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024

Cash

Operating cash flow
328.3 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Capital expenditure
260.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Free cash flow
68.1 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2024
FCF conversion
73.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Cash conversion
88.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
47 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Days inventory outstanding
83 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Days payables outstanding
61 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Cash conversion cycle
70 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Enterprise value
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Market cap / net income TTM
14.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/E (TTM)
10.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Earnings yield
9.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/B
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/S
0.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/EBIT
9.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/Sales
1.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/FCF
19.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
FCF yield
5.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 68 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

9.23 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/E (TTM)
10.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/B
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROE
7.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Net margin
6.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Revenue growth (YoY)
16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2024
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2024
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2024
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Apr 2026
verified 303

The data is older than the freshness threshold.

Score by group

  • Balance sheet59
  • Valuation80
  • Quality76
  • Growth44
  • Returns73

Estimated value range

Low
15.02
USD per share
Mid
16.10
USD per share
High
34.02
USD per share
Price: 9.23 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 74.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 42.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.88 – 42.58 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)23.27 – 42.58 (Mid 30.23)
    WACC 7.8% · starting FCFF 207.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -28.2%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA15.02 – 34.02 (Mid 16.10)
    3 companies used · median multiple 7.4x · quartiles 7.0x – 14.3x
    AGRZ, DMC, DOLE
  • Peers: P/E14.88 – 17.34 (Mid 15.08)
    3 companies used · median multiple 16.8x · quartiles 16.6x – 19.4x
    DMC, DOLE, VFF
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Agricultural Production-Crops (SIC 0100)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 68/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality8.7%86 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality6.1%73 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality73.8%63 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth10.5%88 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-7.4%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.3x78 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.1x0 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.5x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation10.3x80 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation4.8x93 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation5.2%65 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.1%73 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial73/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.5 bn USD in 2024; YoY growth 16.9%; net margin 6.1%; ROE 7.1%; net debt/EBITDA 1.3x.

The estimated value range is 15.02–34.02 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 16.10 USD, the price of 9.23 USD leaves a potential of 74.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 42.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 68/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 8.7%
  • Net margin: 6.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.3x
  • Current ratio: 2.5x
  • P/E (TTM): 10.3x
  • EV/EBITDA: 4.8x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.1%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -7.4%
  • Interest coverage: 1.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Agricultural Production-Crops (SIC 0100) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
10.3x
vertical median 16.8x
below median (−38.8%)
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
vertical median 7.4x
below median (−35.4%)
P/S
0.9x
vertical median 0.4x
above median (+95.8%)
P/B
1.0x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+6.8%)
ROE
7.1%
vertical median 4.0%
above median (+75.8%)
Net margin
6.1%
vertical median 0.6%
above median (+865.7%)
EBIT margin
12.0%
vertical median -16.7%
above median
Revenue YoY
16.9%
vertical median 2.9%
above median (+481.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.3x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+57.7%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 3.5%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CTVACorteva, Inc.8.2 bn8.14.0%5.7%+2.9%+21% / +81%
DMCDel Monte Corporation1.4 bn16.84.0%1.9%+1.0%−21% / +26%
AGROAdecoagro S.A.1.3 bn10.37.1%6.1%+16.9%+21% / −17%
DOLEDole plc1.3 bn21.94.5%0.6%+8.2%−4% / +20%
VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.358.3 m16.47.6%9.8%+10.2%−26% / +271%
LMNRLimoneira Company190.7 m—-25.7%-33.0%−16.6%−24% / −31%
AGRZAgroz Inc.42.0 m48.025.6%8.6%unavailable−98% / unavailable
LOCLLocal Bounti Corporation22.1 m——-130.5%+26.8%−61% / −73%
TULPBloomia Holdings, Inc.10.9 m—-87.9%-23.2%unavailable−40% / −54%
SEEDOrigin Agritech Limited8.6 m——-58.4%−20.6%−49% / −64%
EDBLEdible Garden AG Incorporated1.4 m—-197.1%-51.0%−7.6%−100% / −100%
LNDBrasilAgro – Brazilian Agricultural Real Estate Company——6.3%15.7%+13.8%−12% / −32%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AGRO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
4.18
Total return -55% · Per year -55%
7.38
Total return -20% · Per year -20%
11.08
Total return 20% · Per year 20%
3 years
4.57
Total return -51% · Per year -21%
9.01
Total return -2% · Per year -1%
14.79
Total return 60% · Per year 17%
5 years
4.99
Total return -46% · Per year -12%
11.01
Total return 19% · Per year 4%
19.75
Total return 114% · Per year 16%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 2.25
  • Net margin± 1.58
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.22
  • Annual dilution± 0.13

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (11 Aug 2026), 6-K (20 Jul 2026).

In brief

Adecoagro is a South American agro-industrial group operating in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, combining crop and dairy production, industrial processing and nitrogen fertilizers. Its relevance grew after the December 2025 acquisition of Profertil, which positions it as a major urea and ammonia producer, while capital expenditures in fiscal 2025 were also high 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a large portfolio of farmland and industrial assets located in regions with favorable agro-ecological conditions 1.
  • Vertical integration allows part of production to be processed into higher-margin products, reducing exposure to raw commodity price swings 1.
  • Experience in acquiring, developing and transforming underused land gives an execution advantage on large projects 1.

Weaknesses

  • Most assets are farmland, which is considered highly illiquid, limiting financial flexibility 1.
  • The company carries significant indebtedness, and the terms of its debt agreements restrict operating flexibility 1.
  • Applying IFRS requires biological assets to be measured at fair value, which reduces comparability with issuers applying US GAAP 1.

Opportunities

  • If the Profertil synergies materialize, the company could expand urea production, supported by cheap natural gas 1.
  • Growth in the Brazilian sugar and ethanol cluster could raise economies of scale if markets support it 1.
  • High rice and sunflower yields in the recent season point to the productivity potential of the portfolio 1.

Threats

  • Extreme weather and phenomena such as El Niño could reduce output and logistics capacity 1.
  • Macroeconomic and political risks in Argentina and Brazil, including currency depreciation, could affect results 1.
  • The majority shareholder could take decisions that do not match the interests of other shareholders, a threat to minority holders 1.

Risks

  • Weather and climatehigh

    Droughts, floods, hail or disease can abruptly reduce harvests and production, and climate phenomena can intensify these effects 1.

  • Commodity priceshigh

    A fall in sugar or petroleum prices directly hits the sugar and ethanol segments, and grain volatility affects the value of biological assets 1.

  • Indebtednessmedium

    The debt level and contractual restrictions could limit investment and dividend distribution, especially when interest rates are variable 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    The Profertil acquisition is recent, and financial results could differ significantly from expectations, especially if antitrust notification imposes conditions 1.

  • Macroeconomic risk in operating countrieshigh

    Inflation, exchange controls and political instability in Argentina and Brazil could affect results and access to financing 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the Profertil integration delivers the declared low costs and synergies, the company could become a significant urea and ammonia producer in the region 1.
  • The land portfolio and the mix of production and processing could support steadier margins than a pure raw-commodity producer 1.
  • Experience in land transformation and rising yields in some crops could generate additional long-term value 1.

What would break the thesis

  • High indebtedness and large 2025 investments could limit financial flexibility if commodity prices fall 1.
  • Exposure to weather and to sugar and ethanol price volatility could weigh on results 1.
  • Concentration of shares with one majority holder could reduce liquidity and limit minority influence over decisions 1.

What to watch

  • Quarterly results and Profertil integration progressQ1 2026
  • Evolution of sugar, ethanol and urea prices2026
  • Impact of a possible El Niño on harvests and logisticslate 2026 / early 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (11 Aug 2026), 6-K (20 Jul 2026).

The business

Adecoagro S.A., incorporated in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and listed on the NYSE under the symbol AGRO, manages 608399 hectares in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, of which 210371 hectares are owned 1. The model integrates agricultural production (crops, rice, sugarcane, milk) with processing in its own plants, so part of the output is converted into value-added products such as sugar, ethanol, energy, white rice or UHT milk 1. The company also transforms underused land, and gains from these operations are reported in the Crops or Rice segments 1.

The stated strategy is to consolidate the sugar and ethanol cluster in Mato Grosso do Sul and to integrate Profertil into the agro-industrial platform to obtain operational synergies 1. The company is also evaluating expanding fertilizer capacity, given access to cheaper natural gas and regional markets that are net importers of urea 1.

Segments

Farming

The Farming division includes Crops (soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton), Rice and Dairy, with farms in the Argentine Humid Pampas and in Uruguay 1. The company operates four free-stall dairies and two milk processing facilities 1.

Market context

The share of export markets and international trade flows affects company revenue, and tariffs and trade restrictions can change sales conditions 1. Climate risks such as El Niño can affect harvests and logistics in coming periods 1.

Trends

  • Profertil integrationtailwind

    Adding urea and ammonia from Profertil could diversify revenue if the expected operational synergies materialize 1.

  • Commodity pricesmixed

    Fluctuations in sugar, ethanol and grain prices directly affect results and the value of biological assets, so market developments can be favorable or unfavorable 1.

  • Climate phenomenaheadwind

    A possible strong El Niño in 2026 could bring severe drought or excess rainfall to South America, affecting yields and logistics 1.

  • Energy transition and biofuelsmixed

    Demand for ethanol and biomass energy depends on public policy and infrastructure, and regulatory changes can alter the segment's outlook 1.

Competitive position

The company states it faces significant competition in all segments, from crops and rice to sugar, ethanol and fertilizers 1. Its position rests on land scale and low production costs, but regional competitors may have similar advantages 1.

The supplied sources do not name competitors explicitly, so this profile is limited to competitor categories without assuming other companies 1.

  • Regional sugar and ethanol producers

    Brazilian competition in sugar and ethanol, mentioned generically in the company's competition risk disclosure 1.

  • Urea and ammonia producers

    Regional producers selling urea and ammonia into net importing markets, cited generically 1.

  • South American agricultural operators

    Grain, rice and milk producers in Argentina and Uruguay competing for the same product markets 1.

  • Rice and milk processors

    Firms selling UHT milk, powdered milk and white rice in domestic and export markets, cited generically 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 09 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 26 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Adecoagro S.A. · 29 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.