olivLaw · US equity research
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. AMBP
Metal Cans · SIC 3411 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 341x)
Ardagh Metal Packaging makes metal beverage cans for customers in Europe, North America and Brazil, where it ranks second or third. In fiscal 2025 the company reported revenue of 5497 million USD, and revenue grew mainly because higher input costs were passed through to customers. The profile matters because its long contract structure and reliance on a few large customers shape both its risks and its stability.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) stock was 4.76 USD (+3.93% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.8 bn USD, dividend yield 9.21%, beta 0.70, 52-week range 3.32–5.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.28 – 4.81
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 11.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.67 / 4.47
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.2% | −2.0% | +9.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.5% | −2.2% | −4.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.9% | +4.3% | +15.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.1% | +10.6% | +5.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +41.7% | +10.5% | +31.2 pp | +27.6% |
| 3 years | +31.1% | +73.7% | −42.5 pp | +12.0% |
| 5 years | −50.7% | +61.7% | −112.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.2% | +17.5% | +15.6% | +2.6% | +2.0% | +12.0% |
| Net income | -40.0 m | 111.0 m | -210.0 m | 237.0 m | -50.0 m | -3.0 m | 11.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −289.2% | unavailable | −121.1% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.08 | 0.22 | -0.39 | 0.38 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −277.3% | unavailable | −131.6% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -1.2% | 3.2% | -5.2% | 5.1% | -1.0% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Free cash flow | 176.0 m | 71.0 m | -221.0 m | -380.0 m | 248.0 m | 283.0 m | 276.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- unavailable USD
- Financial debt
- 4.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- -675.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 5.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.06x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 0.2%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 548.0 m | 616.0 m | 526.0 m | 474.0 m | 630.0 m | 681.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 210.0 m | 47.0 m | 176.0 m | 76.0 m | 202.0 m | 244.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 140.0 m | -188.0 m | 256.0 m | -71.0 m | 10.0 m | 4.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 29.0 m | 22.0 m | 19.0 m | -21.0 m | 13.0 m | -7.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 111.0 m | -210.0 m | 237.0 m | -50.0 m | -3.0 m | 11.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.22 | -0.39 | 0.38 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.02 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 493.8 m | 538.8 m | 601.0 m | 597.6 m | 597.7 m | 597.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 257.0 m | 463.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2022verified |
| Receivables | 368.0 m | 512.0 m | 509.0 m | 278.0 m | 332.0 m | 467.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 250.0 m | 407.0 m | 567.0 m | 469.0 m | 382.0 m | 509.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 976.0 m | 999.0 m | 966.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.3 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 843.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 969.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 48.0 m | 286.0 m | 455.0 m | 106.0 m | -136.0 m | -675.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 603.3 m | 597.6 m | 597.6 m | 597.7 m | 597.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 334.0 m | 458.0 m | 205.0 m | 616.0 m | 450.0 m | 449.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 263.0 m | 679.0 m | 585.0 m | 368.0 m | 167.0 m | 173.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 71.0 m ≈ | -221.0 m ≈ | -380.0 m ≈ | 248.0 m ≈ | 283.0 m ≈ | 276.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Financing cash flow | -98.0 m | 454.0 m | 499.0 m | -348.0 m | -81.0 m | -374.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 251.0 m | 263.0 m | 264.0 m | 262.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 35.0 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.76 – 7.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)5.76 – 7.75 (Mid 6.61)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.2% | 0 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 2,509.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.4% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 22 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 9.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 94.9% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial22/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial45/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING S.A. (AMBP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.0%; net margin 0.2%.
The estimated value range is 5.76–7.75 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.61 USD, the price of 4.76 USD leaves a potential of 38.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 28.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 2,509.1%
- FCF yield: 9.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.2%
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Fabricated metal products (SIC 341x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALLBall Corporation | 16.5 bn | 31.8 | 9.6% | 3.5% | +11.6% | +28% / +14% |
| CCKCrown Holdings, Inc. | 13.5 bn | 17.4 | 26.7% | 5.8% | +4.8% | +29% / +45% |
| SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc | 4.5 bn | 16.7 | 11.7% | 4.0% | +10.7% | +8% / +2% |
| AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 2.8 bn | — | — | 0.2% | +12.0% | +42% / +31% |
| JBDIJBDI Holdings Limited | 55.6 m | 292.0 | 3.1% | 1.4% | +0.9% | +59% / unavailable |
| GEFGreif, Inc. | — | — | 6.5% | 4.4% | +4.3% | +17% / +10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AMBP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.27 Total return -94% · Per year -94% | 0.48 Total return -90% · Per year -90% | 0.72 Total return -85% · Per year -85% |
| 3 years | 0.27 Total return -94% · Per year -62% | 0.53 Total return -89% · Per year -52% | 0.88 Total return -82% · Per year -43% |
| 5 years | 0.26 Total return -94% · Per year -44% | 0.59 Total return -88% · Per year -34% | 1.07 Total return -78% · Per year -26% |
- Exit P/E± 0.13
- Net margin± 0.09
- Annual revenue growth± 0.08
- Annual dilution± 0.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026).
In brief
Ardagh Metal Packaging makes metal beverage cans for customers in Europe, North America and Brazil, where it ranks second or third. In fiscal 2025 the company reported revenue of 5497 million USD, and revenue grew mainly because higher input costs were passed through to customers. The profile matters because its long contract structure and reliance on a few large customers shape both its risks and its stability.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a leading position in metal beverage packaging and has a diversified customer base with long-standing relationships 1.
- Multi-year contracts and cost pass-through mechanisms give a more predictable exposure to price volatility 1.
- The asset base is large and well invested, and the share of specialty cans supports more attractive margins than standard cans 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Growing sustainability awareness could support new orders for metal cans over other packaging types 1.
- The specialty can segment is growing faster than the standard segment and could bring better margins 1.
- Diversifying customers into faster-growing categories such as energy drinks and sparkling water could reduce reliance on traditional clients 1.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A small number of large customers account for a significant share of revenue, and losing or renegotiating terms with them could affect results 1.
- Overcapacityhigh
Capacity growth without matching demand could lead to lower prices or the curtailment of operations 1.
- Indebtedness and capital structurehigh
Substantial debt and the need to refinance could limit the company's ability to fund investments or comply with financing covenants 1.
- Goodwill write-downmedium
Significant goodwill on the balance sheet could be impaired if valuation assumptions change, with an impact on results 1.
- Seasonality and weatherlow
Demand is concentrated in warm periods, and unseasonably cool weather could reduce sales in an important quarter 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for metal cans and specialty cans keeps growing and cost pass-through mechanisms work as intended, margins could stabilize and gradually improve 1.
- Multi-year contracts and a leading position in three major markets could support revenue even during periods of volatility 1.
- The sustainability advantage of infinitely recyclable aluminum could attract customers seeking to reduce their carbon footprint 1.
What would break the thesis
- The very small profit in 2025 shows that margins are thin, and if financing costs remain high, the net result could stay weak 1.
- Overcapacity and vertical integration by customers could push prices down, especially if demand slows 1.
- Concentration on a few large customers means a change in strategy at one of them could have disproportionate effects 1.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA versus 2025Q1 2027
- Level of overcapacity and pricing of metal cans in Europe and North America2027
- Timing and execution of capacity and specialty can investments2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026).
The business
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is one of the leading suppliers of consumer metal beverage packaging worldwide, and it states that it holds the #2 or #3 market positions in Europe, the United States and Brazil 1. The company was incorporated in Luxembourg in January 2021 and began trading on the NYSE under the ticker AMBP after the GHV combination in August 2021 1. As at December 31, 2025, it operated 23 production facilities and employed approximately 6,500 personnel 1.
Customers include multinational and regional beverage companies, and over 80% of sales are generated under multi-year contracts, with the remainder largely subject to annual arrangements 1. Many contracts include input cost pass-through provisions, which help deliver generally consistent absolute margins 1. Profit for 2025 was only 11 million USD, while adjusted EBITDA of 739 million USD shows that cost structure and debt remain central issues 1.
The company invests in innovation, particularly in specialty cans, which represented 51% of total can shipments in 2025 1. Its sustainability strategy focuses on reducing emissions, water use and waste, and the aluminum in its cans is infinitely recyclable 1.
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Shift toward sustainable packagingtailwind
Growing consumer awareness of sustainability could favor a pack mix shift toward metal beverage cans, which are highly recyclable 1.
- Industry overcapacityheadwind
Recent capacity expansions by the company and its competitors could lead to pricing pressure if demand does not grow at the same pace 1.
- Vertical integration by customersheadwind
Some large customers make part of their own cans, which can add capacity to the market and affect the balance between supply and demand 1.
- Energy and raw material costsmixed
Energy and aluminum prices affect costs, and pass-through mechanisms reduce but do not eliminate this exposure 1.
Competitive position
The main competitors named by the company are Ball Corporation, Crown Holdings and CANPACK, and competition is based on price, innovation, sustainability, design, quality and service 1. Competition also comes from plastic, glass, carton and composite packaging, particularly for carbonated soft drinks 1.
Large beverage companies that self-manufacture packaging can become indirect competitors in some cases, so the competitive position depends on keeping relationships with major customers 1.
- Ball CorporationBALL
Principal competitor named by the company, active in metal beverage packaging in Europe, North America and Brazil 1.
- Crown HoldingsCCK
Principal competitor named by the company in metal beverage packaging 1.
- CANPACK
Principal competitor named by the company, with a presence in beverage can production 1.
- Plastic, glass and carton packaging producers
Suppliers of alternative packaging that compete for the same beverage customers, especially for soft drinks 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Jun 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. · 05 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.