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olivLaw · US equity research

Crown Holdings, Inc. CCK

Metal Cans · SIC 3411 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 341x)

120.73USD−2.04% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

Crown Holdings is a global maker of metal packaging, above all aluminum beverage cans, with net sales in fiscal 2025 of about 12.4 billion USD. Its relevance now lies in rising demand for aluminum cans set against cost inflation in raw materials and price adjustments.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) stock was 120.73 USD (−2.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 13.0 bn USD, P/E 16.8 on diluted EPS of 7.18 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.09%, beta 0.55, 52-week range 92.04–123.24 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.7 bn USD (+15.9% YoY), net income of 225.0 m USD (+5.1% YoY), diluted EPS 2.08 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
13.0 bn USD
shares as of 26 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.8
Diluted EPS TTM 7.18 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.95%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.09%
DPS 12m 1.31
Beta (2y)
0.55
Volatility (1y) 25%
52-week range
92.04123.24

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
65.4
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
105.89 – 123.53
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.84 · band width 15.4%
SMA 50 / 200
112.90 / 108.57
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.58 / 1.78
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+13.8%−2.0%+15.8 pp—
3 months−0.8%−2.2%+1.4 pp—
6 months+22.4%+4.3%+18.1 pp—
Year to date+17.2%+10.6%+6.7 pp—
1 year+24.2%+10.5%+13.7 pp+23.8%
3 years+44.9%+73.7%−28.7 pp+14.1%
5 years+13.8%+61.7%−48.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.7%
02 Mar 2026 → 08 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−48.5%
25 Mar 2022 → 02 Nov 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+2.6%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
3.7 bn USD
+15.9% YoY
Net income
225.0 m USD
+5.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.08
+12.4% YoY
net / operating
6.1% / 11.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue2.9 bn2.9 bn3.1 bn3.2 bn3.1 bn3.3 bn3.7 bn3.7 bn
Cost of revenue2.3 bn2.3 bn2.4 bn2.5 bn2.5 bn2.6 bn2.9 bn3.0 bn
SG&A147.0 m152.0 m161.0 m155.0 m164.0 m159.0 m166.0 m159.0 m
Operating income351.0 m365.0 m391.0 m423.0 m374.0 m365.0 m464.0 m442.0 m
Interest expense108.0 m99.0 m103.0 m101.0 m95.0 m97.0 m105.0 m97.0 m
Pre-tax income521.0 m272.0 m293.0 m322.0 m273.0 m275.0 m365.0 m348.0 m
Income tax128.0 m46.0 m78.0 m84.0 m73.0 m70.0 m89.0 m89.0 m
Net income358.0 m193.0 m181.0 m214.0 m150.0 m175.0 m245.0 m225.0 m
Diluted EPS3.02 ≈1.651.561.851.31 ≈1.562.232.08
Operating cash flow295.0 m14.0 m449.0 m ≈580.0 m ≈487.0 m-54.0 m713.0 m ≈406.0 m ≈
Capex149.0 m33.0 m56.0 m ≈92.0 m ≈232.0 m87.0 m116.0 m ≈107.0 m ≈
Dividends paid29.0 m30.0 m30.0 m ≈30.0 m ≈30.0 m39.0 m38.0 m ≈38.0 m ≈
Share repurchases100.0 m203.0 m6.0 m ≈105.0 m ≈191.0 m212.0 m305.0 m ≈81.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 12.0, median 18.9, max 118.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue11.2 bn11.7 bn9.4 bn11.4 bn12.9 bn12.0 bn11.8 bn12.4 bn
Revenue YoY+28.2%+4.6%−19.5%+21.3%+13.6%−7.2%−1.7%+4.8%
Net income439.0 m510.0 m579.0 m-560.0 m727.0 m450.0 m424.0 m738.0 m
Net income YoY+35.9%+16.2%+13.5%−196.7%unavailable−38.1%−5.8%+74.1%
Diluted EPS3.283.784.30-4.305.993.763.556.38
Diluted EPS YoY+37.8%+15.2%+13.8%−200.0%unavailable−37.2%−5.6%+79.7%
net %3.9%4.4%6.2%-4.9%5.6%3.7%3.6%6.0%
Free cash flow109.0 m772.0 m761.0 m89.0 m-36.0 m660.0 m789.0 m1.1 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
764.0 m USD
Financial debt
5.5 bn USD
Net debt
4.7 bn USD
Equity
3.5 bn USD
Total assets
14.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.58x
Current ratio
1.03x
ROE
22.0%
ROA
5.2%
FCF margin
9.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
12.0 bn
2024
11.8 bn
2025
12.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
9.5 bn
2024
9.3 bn
2025
9.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
2.5 bn ≈
2024
2.5 bn ≈
2025
2.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
33.0 m
2024
32.0 m
2025
33.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
582.0 m
2024
597.0 m
2025
632.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
436.0 m
2024
452.0 m
2025
398.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
795.0 m
2024
743.0 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
222.0 m
2024
183.0 m
2025
281.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
450.0 m
2024
424.0 m
2025
738.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.76
2024
3.55
2025
6.38

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
119.7 m
2024
119.4 m
2025
115.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.96
2024
1.00
2025
1.04

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.3 bn
2024
918.0 m
2025
764.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
4.8 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
5.1 bn
2024
4.9 bn
2025
5.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
959.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
15.0 bn
2024
13.8 bn
2025
14.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
16.0 m
2024
66.0 m
2025
83.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
6.7 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
5.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
4.2 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.9 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
793.0 m
2024
403.0 m
2025
413.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
660.0 m ≈
2024
789.0 m ≈
2025
1.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-804.0 m
2024
-12.0 m
2025
-320.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
116.0 m
2024
-1.5 bn
2025
-1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
115.0 m
2024
119.0 m
2025
120.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
12.0 m
2024
217.0 m
2025
505.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
9.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
74.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
79.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
41.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
20.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
26.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
14.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
5.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
542.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
127.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
58 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
97 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
13.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
18.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
11.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
12.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
7.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 66 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

120.73 USD

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 13.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
13.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
26.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 26 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 2605derived 200

Score by group

  • Valuation76
  • Returns100
  • Quality99
  • Balance sheet36
  • Growth7

Estimated value range

Low
120.62
USD per share
Mid
164.05
USD per share
High
241.29
USD per share
Price: 120.73 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 35.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 26.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 120.62 – 241.29 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)120.62 – 241.29 (Mid 164.05)
    WACC 7.8% · starting FCFF 1.3 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 77%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -10.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate13.67 – 18.38 (Mid 15.68)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 341x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 66/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.6%97 (on a fixed band)13%
Net margin · Quality5.8%100 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality127.0%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.5%0 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth2.1%14 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet4.2x41 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x28 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation16.8x60 (on a fixed band)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation7.7%97 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns7.2%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns14.4%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth7/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality99/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

Memo

CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (CCK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.8%; net margin 5.8%; ROE 26.7%.

The estimated value range is 120.62–241.29 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 164.05 USD, the price of 120.73 USD leaves a potential of 35.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 26.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 14.6%
  • Net margin: 5.8%
  • FCF conversion: 127.0%
  • FCF yield: 7.7%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.2%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 14.4%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.5%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.1%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Fabricated metal products (SIC 341x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
16.8x
vertical median 31.8x
below median (−47.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.9x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+8.7%)
P/B
4.4x
vertical median 2.9x
above median (+54.5%)
ROE
26.7%
vertical median 8.0%
above median (+233.5%)
Net margin
5.8%
vertical median 3.5%
above median (+63.7%)
EBIT margin
12.0%
vertical median 4.4%
above median (+169.2%)
Revenue YoY
4.8%
vertical median 10.7%
below median (−55.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.1%
vertical median 1.8%
below median (−38.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BALLBall Corporation16.5 bn31.89.6%3.5%+11.6%+28% / +14%
CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.13.0 bn16.826.7%5.8%+4.8%+24% / +45%
SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc4.4 bn16.311.7%4.0%+10.7%+5% / −1%
AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.2.7 bn——0.2%+12.0%+22% / +14%
JBDIJBDI Holdings Limited45.5 m239.03.1%1.4%+0.9%+30% / unavailable
GEFGreif, Inc.——6.5%4.4%+4.3%+24% / +16%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CCK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
68.70
Total return -42% · Per year -42%
121.82
Total return 2% · Per year 2%
184.01
Total return 54% · Per year 54%
3 years
58.86
Total return -49% · Per year -20%
118.17
Total return 1% · Per year 0%
197.07
Total return 67% · Per year 19%
5 years
50.43
Total return -55% · Per year -15%
114.62
Total return 0% · Per year 0%
211.06
Total return 82% · Per year 13%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 29.54
  • Net margin± 20.68
  • Annual revenue growth± 18.01
  • Annual dilution± 1.74

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

In brief

Crown Holdings is a global maker of metal packaging, above all aluminum beverage cans, with net sales in fiscal 2025 of about 12.4 billion USD 1. Its relevance now lies in rising demand for aluminum cans set against cost inflation in raw materials and price adjustments 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Global leadership in beverage cans, with a broad customer base and plants in many countries.
  • Strong cash generation and a balance sheet regarded as healthy, which support investment and buybacks.
  • Sustainability recognition and good ESG ratings that help with brands sensitive to environmental impact.

Weaknesses

  • Heavy reliance on a few large beverage customers could hurt revenue if they reduce orders.
  • Exposure to volatile aluminum and steel prices can compress margins when costs cannot be passed on in full.
  • High fixed costs mean gross margin can fall when capacity utilization is low.

Opportunities

  • Growing markets such as India and Southeast Asia could add volume through dedicated capacity.
  • Rising preference for cans as a beverage format could sustain growth over the long term.
  • Buybacks and organic investment could create value if returns on capital stay high.

Threats

  • Tariffs and retaliatory trade measures could raise raw material costs and reduce profits.
  • Industry overcapacity could bring price pressure and loss of contracts.
  • Alternative plastic or glass packaging could gain share if relative material prices shift.

Risks

  • Raw material costshigh

    Higher aluminum and steel prices could reduce profits if they cannot be passed to customers in time 1.

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    Loss of one of the major customers could have a significant adverse effect on segments and on the company 1.

  • Tariffs and international trademedium

    Tariffs and trade restrictions could affect supply costs and sales in several countries 12.

  • Goodwill impairmentmedium

    Goodwill of more than 3 billion USD could lead to write-downs if a segment's performance declines 1.

  • Unionized workforcelow

    Strikes or work stoppages at unionized plants could raise costs and prevent deliveries 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Demand for aluminum beverage cans keeps growing, and volume gains in the third quarter suggest the trend can persist 3.
  • Cost pass-through and cash generation could support dividends and buybacks if the 2026 guidance holds 3.
  • New capacity in Brazil, Greece, Spain and India could open long-term growth in high-potential markets.

What would break the thesis

  • Volatile aluminum prices and tariffs could compress margins if costs are not fully recovered 1.
  • High concentration of sales among a few customers could amplify the effect of any change in orders.
  • Overcapacity and competition in standardized products could limit price increases and returns.

What to watch

  • Beverage can volume trends in Brazil and AsiaQ4 2026
  • Delivery against the 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of 8.35-8.45 USD2026
  • Start-up of the Uttar Pradesh plant in IndiaQ1 2028

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

The business

The stated strategy is to maximize long-term shareholder value through profitable growth, dividends and share repurchases, with a long-term net leverage target of 2.5x adjusted EBITDA 1. Since 2019 the company has invested at least 2,000 million USD in capacity, and capital spending is estimated at 550 million USD for 2026 2. Its Twentyby30 sustainability program sets twenty measurable goals to be reached by 2030 1.

Reportable segments are Americas Beverage, European Beverage, Asia Pacific and Transit Packaging, managed regionally 1. Americas Beverage had 2025 net sales of about 5.6 billion USD and European Beverage about 2.3 billion USD 1. Large beverage companies such as Anheuser-Busch InBev and Coca-Cola are among its main customers 1.

Segments

Americas Beverage

The segment makes aluminum cans and ends, glass bottles and steel crowns in the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Colombia and Mexico. Net sales in 2025 were about 5.6 billion USD 1. A new high-speed line at the Ponta Grossa plant in Brazil is expected to start commercial production in late 2026 1.

European Beverage

The segment makes aluminum beverage cans across Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, with 2025 net sales of about 2.3 billion USD 1. Additional lines were planned for Korinthos and Agoncillo, and a new plant in Northern India was announced in April 2026 23.

Transit Packaging

The segment covers automation equipment, protective packaging and steel and plastic consumables, with 2025 net sales of about 2.0 billion USD 1. Sales fell in 2025 on lower equipment volumes, and the segment could be affected by tariff effects on industrial activity 1.

Market context

Global demand for beverage cans has grown in recent years in North America, Brazil and Europe, supported by new products, the sustainability appeal of aluminum and population and GDP growth 2. The customer base is concentrated: the top ten customers were about 48% of 2025 consolidated net sales 1. Aluminum and steel prices are volatile, and pass-through contracts shift part of these costs to customers 12.

Trends

  • Rising demand for aluminum canstailwind

    Brand and consumer preference for aluminum, seen as more sustainable, could support volumes over the long term 13. Management described demand as robust, with global volumes up 6% in the third quarter of 2026 3.

  • Volatile aluminum and steel costsheadwind

    Aluminum and steel make up a large share of cost of products sold, and tariffs could raise material costs 1. Pass-through mechanisms partly reduce the exposure, but timing lags can squeeze operating margins 12.

  • New capacity investmentsmixed

    Projects in Brazil, Greece, Spain and Northern India could support volume growth in coming years if they are completed on plan 23. Added capacity can, however, bring higher fixed costs if demand does not grow enough.

  • Trade and tariff uncertaintyheadwind

    Tariffs on aluminum, steel and imports, and possible retaliatory measures, could affect raw material prices and profits 1. The Supreme Court ruling of February 2026 on tariffs leaves the practical effects uncertain 1.

Competitive position

Most consumer packaging is sold in highly competitive markets where price, quality, service and performance matter 1. Beverage cans are standardized, which limits differentiation and can lead to overcapacity and price pressure 1. Competition also comes from alternative packaging in glass, paper, flexible materials and plastic 1.

In transit packaging the company faces many regional and local competitors, and its products compete with paper, plastic, wood and other metal packaging 1. It differentiates itself through global scale, a broad portfolio and brand reputation 1.

  • Ball CorporationBALL

    Maker of metal beverage cans, named among the competitors in the annual report.

  • Silgan Holdings Inc.SLGN

    Maker of metal and plastic packaging, named among the direct competitors in the report.

  • Ardagh Metal Packaging

    European metal can producer competing in beverage markets, listed as a competitor in the report.

  • Trivium Packaging

    Metal packaging producer that appears among the competitors named by the company.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Crown Holdings, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Crown Holdings, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Crown Holdings, Inc. · 19 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.