olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ASPN

Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials · SIC 5030 · Vertical: Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials (SIC 5030)

4.80USD−3.23% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Aspen Aerogels makes aerogel insulation for the energy industry and thermal barriers for electric vehicle batteries. The company reported revenue of 271.1 million USD for fiscal 2025, but its 2026 quarterly figures show a decline in the Thermal Barrier segment, in the context of an incident at its East Providence plant. Understanding the trend requires looking both at US regulatory changes and at the ramp of its OEM programmes.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) stock was 4.80 USD (−3.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 398.3 m USD, beta 1.61, 52-week range 2.57–7.41 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 49.8 m USD (−36.1% YoY), net income of -23.3 m USD, diluted EPS -0.28 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
398.3 m USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.53 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-31.92%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.61
Volatility (1y) 104%
52-week range
2.577.41

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
39.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
4.82 – 5.81
below the lower band · %B -0.02 · band width 18.6%
SMA 50 / 200
5.23 / 4.69
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.10 / -0.03
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−15.6%−1.1%−14.5 pp—
3 months−4.2%−0.5%−3.7 pp—
6 months+16.5%+4.4%+12.1 pp—
Year to date+69.6%+12.3%+57.3 pp—
1 year−33.2%+13.5%−46.8 pp−15.1%
3 years−46.9%+76.4%−123.3 pp−72.1%
5 years−91.4%+63.7%−155.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−65.3%
05 Nov 2025 → 25 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−96.0%
18 Nov 2021 → 25 Feb 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−38.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
49.8 m USD
−36.1% YoY
Net income
-23.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.28
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-46.7% / -57.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue117.3 m123.1 m78.7 m78.0 m73.0 m41.3 m37.9 m49.8 m
Cost of revenue68.3 m76.0 m55.9 m52.7 m52.2 m64.3 m33.6 m46.6 m
Gross profit49.0 m47.1 m22.8 m25.3 m20.8 m-22.9 m4.3 m3.3 m
Research & development4.6 m4.4 m4.3 m3.8 m2.5 m2.8 m2.7 m3.2 m
Operating income17.4 m14.7 m-299.3 m-5.2 m-3.3 m-70.4 m-20.8 m-28.8 m
Pre-tax income-12.7 m11.2 m-300.2 m-8.2 m-5.7 m-73.0 m-23.9 m-22.6 m
Income tax267.0 k-175.0 k1.1 m821.0 k594.0 k-97.0 k-253.0 k619.0 k
Net income-13.0 m11.4 m-301.2 m-9.1 m-6.3 m-72.9 m-23.7 m-23.3 m
Diluted EPS-0.170.14 ≈-3.67-0.11-0.08-0.88 ≈-0.29-0.28
Operating cash flow20.8 m ≈35.7 m5.6 m-3.9 m ≈15.0 m ≈16.1 m34.1 m-16.2 m ≈
Capex20.8 m ≈14.8 m13.0 m12.9 m ≈9.1 m ≈2.5 m1.4 m1.8 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue104.4 m139.4 m100.3 m121.6 m180.4 m238.7 m452.7 m271.1 m
Revenue YoY−6.5%+33.6%−28.1%+21.3%+48.3%+32.4%+89.6%−40.1%
Net income-34.4 m-14.6 m-21.8 m-37.1 m-82.7 m-45.8 m13.4 m-389.6 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−3,012.5%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-0.83-1.22-2.10-0.660.17-4.73
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−2,882.4%
net %-33.0%-10.5%-21.7%-30.5%-45.9%-19.2%3.0%-143.7%
Free cash flow-12.2 m-3.2 m-13.3 m-32.4 m-272.4 m-218.1 m-40.7 m-4.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
156.9 m USD
Financial debt
90.6 m USD
Net debt
-66.3 m USD
Equity
235.5 m USD
Total assets
406.7 m USD
Debt / equity
0.38x
Current ratio
3.90x
ROE
-91.6%
ROA
-59.8%
FCF margin
-1.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
238.7 m
2024
452.7 m
2025
271.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
181.8 m
2024
269.8 m
2025
225.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
56.9 m
2024
182.9 m
2025
46.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
16.4 m
2024
18.1 m
2025
13.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-49.2 m
2024
54.5 m
2025
-378.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-45.8 m
2024
15.1 m
2025
-387.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
0
2024
1.7 m
2025
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-45.8 m
2024
13.4 m
2025
-389.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.66
2024
0.17
2025
-4.73

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
69.4 m
2024
80.3 m
2025
82.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
139.7 m
2024
220.9 m
2025
156.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
70.0 m
2024
109.1 m
2025
35.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
39.2 m
2024
47.6 m
2025
38.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
266.3 m
2024
409.4 m
2025
242.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
417.2 m
2024
459.3 m
2025
98.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
703.0 m
2024
895.1 m
2025
406.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
51.1 m
2024
44.4 m
2025
13.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
19.8 m
2025
25.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
95.0 m
2025
65.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
78.1 m
2024
110.1 m
2025
62.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
215.0 m
2024
280.4 m
2025
171.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
488.1 m †
2024
614.7 m †
2025
235.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-42.6 m
2024
45.5 m
2025
32.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
175.5 m
2024
86.3 m
2025
37.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-218.1 m ≈
2024
-40.7 m ≈
2025
-4.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-175.5 m
2024
-86.3 m
2025
-37.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
75.5 m
2024
122.0 m
2025
-58.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-40.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-793.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-3,012.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-2,882.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-61.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-62.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
17.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-50.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-27.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-56.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-41.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-71.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
49.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
14.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
34.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
105 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
74 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
45 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
135 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
398.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
327.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-31.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
11.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.80 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 398.3 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
398.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-50.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-62.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-40.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 1623derived 95

Score by group

38% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials (SIC 5030)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-56.7%0 (on a fixed band)28%
Net margin · Quality-62.4%20 (vs peers)17%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth14.5%100 (on a fixed band)22%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.5x100 (on a fixed band)11%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation8.6%100 (on a fixed band)22%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ASPEN AEROGELS, INC. (ASPN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 271.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -40.1%; net margin -62.4%; ROE -50.4%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.5%
  • Current ratio: 2.5x
  • FCF yield: 8.6%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -56.7%
  • Net margin: -62.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials (SIC 5030) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
2.0x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+252.4%)
P/B
2.1x
vertical median 1.3x
above median (+60.0%)
ROE
-50.4%
vertical median -4.9%
below median
Net margin
-62.4%
vertical median -5.3%
below median
EBIT margin
-61.0%
vertical median -5.5%
below median
Revenue YoY
-40.1%
vertical median -0.1%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
QXOQxo, Inc.13.1 bn—-2.8%-4.1%+11,925.0%−32% / −57%
BCCBoise Cascade Company2.7 bn22.95.7%1.8%−4.8%+2% / −29%
ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.398.3 m—-50.4%-62.4%−40.1%−33% / −47%
CAPSCapstone Holding Corp.42.6 m—-114.2%-36.7%+4.5%+127% / −87%
OLOXOlenox Industries Inc.1.2 m—-89.9%-427.9%−40.7%−98% / −100%
SMJFSMJ International Holdings Inc.——-4.9%-5.3%unavailableunavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for ASPN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Aspen Aerogels makes aerogel insulation for the energy industry and thermal barriers for electric vehicle batteries. The company reported revenue of 271.1 million USD for fiscal 2025, but its 2026 quarterly figures show a decline in the Thermal Barrier segment, in the context of an incident at its East Providence plant 13. Understanding the trend requires looking both at US regulatory changes and at the ramp of its OEM programmes 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company holds patented manufacturing processes that allow robust aerogel to be produced at commercial scale, a technological edge the source highlights 1. Pyrogel and Cryogel insulation have undergone rigorous technical validation and have an extensive installed base 1.
    • The company has contractual relationships with several automotive OEMs and large energy operators, giving it an established customer base 1. Management reported solid liquidity at the end of the second quarter of 2026 3.
    • According to the company, its products offer superior thermal performance and may have lower installed total cost in some applications, which can support a premium position 1.

    Weaknesses

    • The company reported significant net losses in 2025 and again in the second quarter of 2026, with a substantial accumulated deficit 13. Dependence on a single main production site, East Providence, became evident after the incident 13.
    • Thermal Barrier revenue is concentrated in a small number of customers, especially General Motors, which raises exposure 1. OEM contracts generally carry no minimum purchase commitments 1.
    • The company noted negative operating cash flows in earlier years, and its ability to keep cash flow positive is not certain 1.

    Opportunities

    • If programmes with Jaguar Land Rover and European manufacturers expand, the Thermal Barrier segment could recover part of the North American decline 3. Energy storage and electrification are named as possible adjacent markets 1.
    • Growing energy industrial project activity could support demand for the Energy Industrial segment 3. The company could use its external capacity in China to extend deliveries without large capital spending 1.
    • If the sale of the Statesboro, Georgia manufacturing assets is completed, the company could reduce debt or capital expenditure needs 3.

    Threats

    • Changes to US EV policies and incentives may reduce demand for thermal barriers 3. Competitors with greater resources could cut prices or launch better-performing technologies 1.
    • Large customers may reduce volumes or change battery architectures, which would directly affect revenue 1. Supply chain and geopolitical risks, especially for the Chinese capacity, remain a threat 1.
    • If insurance recoveries are delayed or reduced, the financial impact of the East Providence incident could persist 3.

    Risks

    • Dependence on a single production sitehigh

      Main production is concentrated at the East Providence plant, and any disruption there could significantly affect deliveries and results 13. The April 2026 incident demonstrated this vulnerability 3.

    • Concentration of automotive customershigh

      A major part of revenue depends on a small number of automakers, and contracts do not guarantee minimum volumes 1. Losing or reducing a major customer could seriously affect the Thermal Barrier segment 1.

    • Need for additional capitalmedium

      The company warned it will need additional capital for its growth strategy, and access to financing could be limited or costly 1. MidCap loan terms include operating and financial restrictions 1.

    • Competition and pricing pressuremedium

      Aspen's products sell at a premium to traditional alternatives, and larger competitors could reduce prices 1. The entry of new players into the thermal barrier market is already noted in the source 1.

    • Uncertain insurance recoverylow

      The company expects to collect the insurance receivable for property damage but is not sure it will recover business interruption costs 3. Results could be affected if these recoveries are delayed 3.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the East Providence restart proceeds as planned and European revenue keeps growing, the company could return to operating profitability faster than expected 3. Relationships with several automakers and the technical validation of its products could support long-term demand 1.
    • Demand for industrial insulation in energy projects could accelerate, supporting the Energy Industrial segment 3. The company could extend its applications into energy storage, a market named as an adjacent opportunity 1.
    • Liquidity remaining after the incident and a documented recovery path could give the company room for selective investment 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • The decline in North American Thermal Barrier revenue and repeated net losses could point to a structural problem rather than a temporary one 13. Dependence on one site and a few customers could amplify any future shock 1.
    • If insurance recoveries come in below expectations, incident costs could weigh on results for several quarters 3. The need for additional capital could lead to dilution of existing shareholders 1.
    • Competitors with greater financial resources could cut prices or launch comparable products, pressuring the company's margins 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against the Q3 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA rangesQ3 2026
    • Progress of the East Providence restart and any insurance recoveriesQ3 2026
    • North American Thermal Barrier revenue against EV regulation and incentive changes2026
    • Completion of the Statesboro sale and start of production for the Jaguar Land Rover programme2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Products are sold mainly through a sales force in North America, Europe and Asia, together with distributors and contractors in more than 50 countries 1. Production is concentrated at the East Providence, Rhode Island facility, supplemented by external manufacturing capacity in China for the Energy Industrial segment 1. In August 2026 the company said it had begun a staged restart of the East Providence plant after an April 2026 incident 3.

    Capital structure and financing are central: the company has a MidCap loan facility maturing in August 2029, which includes minimum liquidity covenants 1. Management indicated operating cash flow could be positive on an annual basis in 2026, but this outcome is not assured 1.

    Market context

    The company serves global markets split between electric vehicles and energy industrial insulation 1. Demand for energy industrial insulation comes from new construction, capital projects and maintenance programmes, and maintenance demand tends to be less sensitive to economic cycles 1. Demand for thermal barriers could grow as battery makers seek to reduce the risk of thermal runaway 1.

    In 2026 the company cited changes to North American EV regulatory frameworks and incentive programmes as affecting Thermal Barrier demand 3. It also announced a PyroThin award across two Jaguar Land Rover next-generation vehicle architectures, with start of production expected in 2027 3.

    Trends

    • Changes to US EV regulationheadwind

      The company attributed the fall in second quarter 2026 Thermal Barrier revenue to changes in North American EV regulatory frameworks and incentive programmes 3. If North American demand stabilises, as the company suggests, pressure on this segment could ease 3.

    • Growth of European Thermal Barrier programmestailwind

      The company raised its 2026 outlook for European Thermal Barrier revenue and reported growth in European revenue in the second quarter 3. If this continues, it could partly offset the North American decline 3.

    • Energy project activitytailwind

      Management noted accelerating Energy Industrial project activity entering the third quarter of 2026 3. Insulation demand depends on clients' capital spending in petrochemicals and energy, which is influenced by economic growth 1.

    • East Providence incident and operating costsheadwind

      An April 2026 incident at the East Providence plant caused losses and extra costs, and the company is staging a restart of production 3. It intends to submit insurance claims, but recovery is not assured 3.

    Competitive position

    The company competes in aerogel materials with a number of suppliers, including Armacell International, JIOS Aerogel, Unifrax (Alkegen), IBIDEN and Guangdong Alison Hi-Tech 1. In traditional insulation the field is wider, and the key factors are performance, price, availability and proximity to the customer 1.

    The company warned that many competitors have greater market presence, longer operating histories and significantly greater financial resources 1. Aspen's products are priced at a premium to traditional insulation, which could become a vulnerability if competitors lower prices 1.

    • Armacell International

      Insulation materials supplier that competes with Aspen in the aerogel market, per the source 1.

    • Unifrax (Alkegen)

      Listed in the source as a participant in the aerogel market; no confirmed US ticker in the source 1.

    • IBIDEN

      Manufacturer named in the source among aerogel competitors; no confirmed US ticker 1.

    • Guangdong Alison Hi-Tech

      Chinese competitor named in the source in the aerogel materials market 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    • Current report15 Sept 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
    • Current report06 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report18 May 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report08 May 2026
    • Current report07 May 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report21 Apr 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Proxy statement27 Mar 2026
    • Annual report13 Mar 2026
    • Current report25 Feb 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Aspen Aerogels, Inc. · 13 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Aspen Aerogels, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Aspen Aerogels, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.