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olivLaw · US equity research

QXO, Inc. QXO

Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials · SIC 5030 · Vertical: Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials (SIC 5030)

12.66USD+8.11% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

QXO, Inc. is the largest publicly traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing and complementary building products in North America. It moved from software to distribution through the Beacon acquisition and, in 2026, through Kodiak and TopBuild, in a building products market of about 800 billion dollars with a target of 50 billion dollars in annual revenue via acquisitions and organic growth.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, QXO, Inc. (QXO) stock was 12.66 USD (+8.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 13.1 bn USD, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.59, 52-week range 10.14–27.07 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2025): revenue of 2.2 bn USD (+14,725.0% YoY), net income of -90.2 m USD (−898.2% YoY), diluted EPS -0.13 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
13.1 bn USD
shares as of 07 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.63 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
-4.98%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta (2y)
1.59
Volatility (1y) 64%
52-week range
10.1427.07

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
9.79 – 12.10
above the upper band · %B 1.24 · band width 21.1%
SMA 50 / 200
11.83 / 17.10
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.02 / -0.28
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+6.6%−1.1%+7.7 pp—
3 months−20.4%−0.5%−19.9 pp—
6 months−35.9%+4.4%−40.3 pp—
Year to date−34.4%+12.3%−46.7 pp—
1 year−25.0%+13.5%−38.5 pp+25.7%
3 years−53.6%+76.4%−130.0 pp−70.6%
5 years−74.0%+63.7%−137.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−62.5%
13 Feb 2026 → 19 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−95.7%
10 Jun 2024 → 19 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−23.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q4 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Revenue
2.2 bn USD
+14,725.0% YoY
Net income
-90.2 m USD
−898.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.13
−603.0% YoY
net / operating
-4.1% / -3.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '23Q1 '24Q2 '24Q3 '24Q4 '24Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25
Revenue14.7 m14.4 m14.5 m13.1 m14.8 m1.9 bn2.7 bn2.2 bn
Cost of revenue9.0 m8.8 m8.7 m7.7 m8.7 m1.5 bn2.1 bn1.7 bn
Gross profit5.7 m5.7 m5.8 m5.5 m6.1 m401.0 m635.8 m529.9 m
SG&A5.1 m5.2 m9.8 m39.0 m39.0 m457.0 m452.5 m441.1 m
Operating income422.0 k228.0 k-4.3 m-33.7 m-33.2 m-163.0 m25.8 m-69.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation220.0 k240.0 k100.0 k0027.0 m39.7 m41.4 m
Interest expense13.3 k20.1 k00052.0 m62.3 m58.7 m
Pre-tax income408.2 k208.0 k-800.0 k23.3 m28.2 m-237.0 m-10.5 m-107.5 m
Income tax-11.0 k70.0 k-200.0 k6.1 m16.9 m-178.0 m128.9 m-17.3 m
Net income419.0 k138.0 k-600.0 k17.2 m11.3 m-59.0 m-139.4 m-90.2 m
Diluted EPS0.64 ≈0.21-9.93-0.010.03 ≈-0.15-0.24-0.13 ≈
Operating cash flow-234.0 k365.0 k-1.1 m ≈31.6 m ≈53.9 m—212.8 m ≈186.6 m
Capex46.0 k61.0 k1.0 k ≈2.0 k ≈38.0 k—29.8 m ≈28.4 m
Dividends paid0——0 ≈0—0 ≈0

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue36.1 m38.5 m41.2 m41.7 m45.0 m54.5 m56.9 m6.8 bn
Revenue YoY+3.6%+6.6%+7.1%+1.2%+7.9%+21.2%+4.4%+11,925.0%
Net income262.4 k6.8 m175.6 k-134.4 k-282.2 k-1.1 m28.0 m-279.4 m
Net income YoYunavailable+2,488.9%−97.4%−176.5%unavailableunavailableunavailable−1,097.9%
Diluted EPS0.061.510.04-0.03-0.05-1.63-0.11-0.63
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+2,416.7%−97.4%−175.0%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %0.7%17.6%0.4%-0.3%-0.6%-2.0%49.2%-4.1%
Free cash flow1.1 munavailable1.6 m111.3 k2.0 m463.0 k84.7 m183.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.4 bn USD
Financial debt
3.1 bn USD
Net debt
695.0 m USD
Equity
9.7 bn USD
Total assets
15.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.31x
Current ratio
3.58x
ROE
-3.8%
ROA
-2.7%
FCF margin
2.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
54.5 m
2024
56.9 m
2025
6.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
32.9 m
2024
33.9 m
2025
5.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
21.6 m
2024
23.1 m
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
22.1 m
2024
93.0 m
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-1.3 m
2024
-71.0 m
2025
-245.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
828.0 k
2024
200.0 k
2025
108.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-483.0 k ≈
2024
-70.8 m ≈
2025
-136.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
55.7 k
2024
100.0 k
2025
173.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-1.4 m
2024
50.8 m
2025
-337.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-297.0 k
2024
22.8 m
2025
-57.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-1.1 m
2024
28.0 m
2025
-279.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.63
2024
-0.11
2025
-0.63

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
657.0 k
2024
204.0 m
2025
613.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
6.1 m
2024
5.1 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.0 m
2024
2.7 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Inventories
2023
—
2024
0
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Current assets
2023
11.8 m
2024
5.1 bn
2025
5.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
503.3 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Mar 2024verified

Goodwill
2023
1.1 m
2024
1.2 m
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
4.9 m
2024
4.0 m
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Total assets
2023
20.5 m
2024
5.1 bn
2025
15.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
4.6 m
2024
6.2 m
2025
819.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
701.7 k
2024
2.9 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
994.0 k
2024
0
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
11.5 m
2024
45.1 m
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
13.0 m
2024
45.4 m
2025
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Equity
2023
7.5 m
2024
5.1 bn †
2025
9.7 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
584.0 k
2024
84.8 m
2025
261.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
121.0 k
2024
102.0 k
2025
78.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
463.0 k ≈
2024
84.7 m ≈
2025
183.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-400.0 k
2024
-100.0 k
2025
-10.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-2.1 m
2024
5.0 bn
2025
7.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.1 m
2024
17.4 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11,925.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
433.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
178.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
-1,097.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
116.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
23.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
-2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
-3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
-4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
-2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-1.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-1.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
4.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
261.4 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
78.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
183.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
90 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
136 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
102 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
124 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
13.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
16.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
2.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
71.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
1.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

12.66 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 13.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
13.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
11,925.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 07 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 14 Aug 2026
verified 2387derived 219

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
3.11
USD per share
Mid
4.72
USD per share
High
7.55
USD per share
Price: 12.66 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -62.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -168.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.11 – 7.55 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)3.11 – 7.55 (Mid 4.72)
    WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 328.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials (SIC 5030)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-1.7%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Net margin · Quality-4.1%80 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth433.8%100 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-1.4x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet4.1x100 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation1.4%17 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns0.0%100 (on a fixed band)8%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality30/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial17/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

QXO, INC. (QXO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11,925.0%; net margin -4.1%; ROE -2.8%.

The estimated value range is 3.11–7.55 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.72 USD, the price of 12.66 USD leaves a potential of -62.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -168.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: -4.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 433.8%
  • Current ratio: 4.1x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -1.7%
  • Interest coverage: -1.4x
  • FCF yield: 1.4%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials (SIC 5030) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
1.9x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+243.2%)
P/B
1.3x
vertical median 1.7x
below median (−25.4%)
ROE
-2.8%
vertical median -50.4%
above median
Net margin
-4.1%
vertical median -36.7%
above median
EBIT margin
-3.6%
vertical median -17.2%
above median
Revenue YoY
11,925.0%
vertical median -22.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
QXOQxo, Inc.13.1 bn—-2.8%-4.1%+11,925.0%−25% / −54%
BCCBoise Cascade Company2.7 bn22.95.7%1.8%−4.8%+2% / −29%
ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.398.3 m—-50.4%-62.4%−40.1%+49% / −54%
CAPSCapstone Holding Corp.42.6 m—-114.2%-36.7%+4.5%+127% / −87%
OLOXOlenox Industries Inc.1.2 m—-89.9%-427.9%−40.7%−98% / −100%
SMJFSMJ International Holdings Inc.——-4.9%-5.3%unavailableunavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for QXO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    QXO, Inc. is the largest publicly traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing and complementary building products in North America. It moved from software to distribution through the Beacon acquisition and, in 2026, through Kodiak and TopBuild, in a building products market of about 800 billion dollars with a target of 50 billion dollars in annual revenue via acquisitions and organic growth.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A leading position in roofing and complementary distribution, with a branch network and a fleet for last-mile delivery, gives negotiating power and fast service 1.
    • Access to capital through equity and preferred issuance enabled large acquisitions in 2026 2.
    • The private label brand TRI-BUILT offers higher margins and brand exclusivity in some categories 1.

    Weaknesses

    • The company reported net losses in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, while integration and amortization costs remained high 12.
    • Reliance on a few large suppliers means supply disruptions could significantly affect results 1.
    • Integrating several large acquisitions with different systems creates operational and management risks 12.

    Opportunities

    • Consolidation of a fragmented market, where a large share of roofing distribution remains with local dealers, offers acquisition opportunities 1.
    • Technology and digital sales could improve service and margins if transformation programs succeed 13.
    • The complementary segment, including waterproofing and insulation, could grow faster than the roofing market 1.

    Threats

    • A fall in new construction or repair activity would reduce sales, especially if interest rates or consumer confidence weaken 1.
    • Tariffs and raw material price volatility could hurt margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
    • Extreme weather and natural disasters could disrupt deliveries and damage facilities and inventory 1.

    Risks

    • Supplier concentrationhigh

      A small number of suppliers account for a large share of purchases, so a disruption could affect revenue and customer relationships 1.

    • Acquisition integrationhigh

      Multiple acquisitions might not deliver the expected benefits or might take longer to realize than planned 12.

    • Indebtednesshigh

      The company has taken on significant debt for the Beacon and TopBuild acquisitions, and interest costs could weigh on profitability 2.

    • Cyclicality and seasonalitymedium

      Demand depends on economic conditions and weather, and winter quarters are typically weaker 1.

    • Cybersecurity and ITmedium

      Disruptions to information systems or cyberattacks could affect inventory, collections and customer service 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If integration succeeds and technology improves margins, revenue growth could be supported by a large and fragmented market 13.
    • A leading roofing position and growth in the complementary segment could support market share and negotiating power with suppliers 12.
    • The housing shortage and ageing building stock could sustain repair and new-build demand over the long term 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Repeated net losses and integration costs could continue to limit profitability if acquisition benefits are delayed 12.
    • High debt and interest costs could constrain financial flexibility if markets or credit conditions worsen 2.
    • Construction cyclicality and tariffs could reduce demand and margins faster than technology can offset them 1.

    What to watch

    • Trend in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA after the TopBuild acquisitionQ3 2026
    • Effect of the Kodiak and TopBuild integration on sales and costsQ4 2026
    • Progress of the technology transformation programme and the goal to double EBITDA2027
    • Debt level and financing cost after the notes issuance and incremental term loannext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    QXO was created to build a tech-forward leader in building products distribution, a market of about 800 billion dollars 1. Until the Beacon Roofing Supply acquisition in April 2025, the company was mainly a provider of software and professional services to small and mid-size firms. After the acquisition, Beacon became QXO Building Products, serving professional contractors, builders and building owners in the United States and Canada 1. Figures to June 30, 2026 show net sales rising sharply, largely due to acquisitions, while the company still reports a net loss for the first half 2.

    The business model rests on the idea that larger distributors have greater purchasing power, can pass savings to customers and can invest in technology, creating a virtuous cycle of share gains 1. The strategy combines operational improvements in acquired businesses, commercial excellence and greenfield branch openings, and acquisitions in complementary categories such as insulation, siding and waterproofing 1. The company says it aims to grow faster than industry rates 1.

    In 2026 QXO completed the Kodiak Building Partners acquisition on April 1 and the TopBuild acquisition on July 1, which according to its release makes it the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America 23. Financing relied on common stock issuance, Series C preferred stock and senior notes, particularly for TopBuild 2. Management has said it plans to more than double EBITDA by 2030 3.

    Segments

    Residential roofing

    Residential roofing products, led by asphalt shingles, were the largest share of net sales in 2025, at about 48.3% 1. In the second quarter of 2026 their share fell to about 39.0% of sales as other product lines grew 2.

    Market context

    The building products distribution industry is about 800 billion dollars in annual revenue, split roughly equally between North America and Western Europe 1. The roofing and complementary products market in the US and Canada is estimated at about 65 billion dollars, and the company expects complementary products to grow faster than roofing 1. Demand is supported mainly by repair and re-roofing, which make up about 80% of industry revenue 1.

    The industry is highly fragmented, with over 7,000 distributors in North America and about 13,000 in Europe 1. The company sees consolidation opportunities, but the market remains competitive and sensitive to construction cycles and economic conditions 1.

    Trends

    • Housing shortagetailwind

      The company estimates a shortage of about four million homes in the US, which could support long-term demand for new construction 1. The effect depends on the pace of building and on financing conditions.

    • Ageing buildings and repairstailwind

      The average existing single-family home is over 40 years old and the average non-residential structure is over 50 years old, which creates ongoing repair demand 1. This supports recurring R&R revenue.

    • Severe weather eventsmixed

      The company notes that severe weather events have quadrupled in frequency over the last 20 years and doubled in economic impact 1. Such events can lift repair demand but can also disrupt deliveries and branches 1.

    • Raw material and tariff costsheadwind

      Asphalt prices, linked to oil, and plywood and OSB prices are volatile, and steel tariffs can raise supplier costs 1. If increases cannot be passed on to customers, margins could fall 1.

    Competitive position

    Competition comes from national, regional and local specialty distributors, as well as big box retailers 1. The company describes itself as the largest publicly traded distributor of roofing and complementary products in North America, but the market remains fragmented, and key factors include product availability, technical expertise, delivery, digital capabilities, pricing and access to credit 1.

    Beyond direct rivals, the company notes that current and potential competitors are also making acquisitions, which could narrow its inorganic growth options 1. Purchasing power and access to financing are decisive in bidding for acquisition targets 1.

    • Owens CorningOC

      Major roofing material supplier named by the company as one of its largest suppliers rather than a direct distributor 1.

    • GAF

      Major roofing materials manufacturer named in the company's supplier base 1.

    • National and regional distributors

      The company compares itself with a small number of large distributors and many small privately owned ones 1.

    • Big box retailers

      Big box retailers form part of the competitive set described in the filing 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    • Current report24 Aug 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report14 Aug 2026
    • Current report13 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report23 Jul 2026
      Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report09 Jul 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report01 Jul 2026
      Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.03 · Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report30 Jun 2026
      Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report29 Jun 2026
      Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report22 Jun 2026
      Other events
    • Current report17 Jun 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / QXO, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / QXO, Inc. · 14 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / QXO, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.