olivLaw · US equity research
Carrier Global Corporation CARR
Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip · SIC 3585 · Vertical: Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 358x)
Carrier Global is a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, with net sales of $21.7 billion in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, sales rose 4% to $6.4 billion, and the company raised its full-year outlook to about $23 billion. Results depend largely on demand from residential, commercial and data center markets, as well as on input costs and tariffs.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock was 55.66 USD (+0.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 45.5 bn USD, dividend yield 1.21%, beta 1.15, 52-week range 50.36–76.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.3 bn USD (+12.3% YoY), net income of -2.6 bn USD (−705.8% YoY), diluted EPS -3.16 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 53.85 – 57.40
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.51 · band width 6.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 56.13 / 61.81
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.24 / -0.25
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.1% | −1.1% | +1.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −14.9% | −0.5% | −14.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −18.0% | +4.4% | −22.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.3% | +12.3% | −7.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.3% | +13.5% | −16.8 pp | −1.9% |
| 3 years | +10.2% | +76.4% | −66.3 pp | +34.8% |
| 5 years | +5.4% | +63.7% | −58.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.1 bn | 5.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.3 bn |
| Research & development | 162.0 m | 153.0 m | 161.0 m | 151.0 m | 160.0 m | 143.0 m | 148.0 m | 154.0 m |
| SG&A | 803.0 m | 729.0 m | 813.0 m | 803.0 m | 747.0 m | 861.0 m | 810.0 m | 758.0 m |
| Operating income | 774.0 m | 629.0 m | 903.0 m | 539.0 m | 101.0 m | 259.0 m | 825.0 m | -2.3 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 318.0 m | 303.0 m | 317.0 m ≈ | 325.0 m ≈ | 329.0 m | 315.0 m | 314.0 m ≈ | 324.0 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 693.0 m | 548.0 m | 812.0 m | 433.0 m | 5.0 m | 170.0 m | 721.0 m | -2.4 bn |
| Income tax | 723.0 m | 111.0 m | 162.0 m | -1.0 m | -32.0 m | -96.0 m | 180.0 m | 177.0 m |
| Net income | 2.6 bn | 412.0 m | 591.0 m | 428.0 m | 53.0 m | 238.0 m | 501.0 m | -2.6 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 2.82 ≈ | 0.47 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.06 ≈ | 0.28 | 0.60 | -3.16 |
| Operating cash flow | 132.0 m | 483.0 m | 649.0 m ≈ | 341.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn | 79.0 m | 927.0 m ≈ | 813.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 217.0 m | 63.0 m | 81.0 m ≈ | 117.0 m ≈ | 131.0 m | 94.0 m | 117.0 m ≈ | 139.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 156.0 m | 198.0 m | 192.0 m ≈ | 193.0 m ≈ | 189.0 m | 201.0 m | 199.0 m ≈ | 198.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 340.0 m ≈ | 785.0 m ≈ | 479.0 m | 306.0 m | 439.0 m ≈ | 399.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.9 bn | 18.6 bn | 17.5 bn | 20.6 bn | 17.3 bn | 19.0 bn | 22.5 bn | 21.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −1.6% | −6.2% | +18.1% | −16.1% | +9.6% | +18.7% | −3.3% |
| Net income | 2.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −22.2% | −6.9% | −15.2% | +107.8% | −61.8% | +315.4% | −73.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.16 | 2.44 | 2.25 | 1.87 | 4.10 | 1.58 | 6.15 | 1.72 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −22.8% | −7.8% | −16.9% | +119.3% | −61.5% | +289.2% | −72.0% |
| net % | 14.6% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 20.4% | 7.1% | 24.9% | 6.8% |
| Free cash flow | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 44.0 m | 2.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.6 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 11.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 10.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 14.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 37.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.84x
- Current ratio
- 1.20x
- ROE
- 10.4%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- FCF margin
- 9.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17.5 bn | 20.6 bn | 17.3 bn | 19.0 bn | 22.5 bn | 21.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 13.0 bn | 13.8 bn | 16.5 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2025verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | 4.3 bn ≈ | 5.2 bn ≈ | 6.0 bn ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2025derived |
| Research & development | 419.0 m | 503.0 m | 416.0 m | 493.0 m | 686.0 m | 625.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 3.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 336.0 m | 338.0 m | 328.0 m | 491.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.4 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 298.0 m | 319.0 m | 238.0 m | 306.0 m | 580.0 m | 458.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 849.0 m | 699.0 m | 616.0 m | 521.0 m | 1.1 bn | 240.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.25 | 1.87 | 4.10 | 1.58 | 6.15 | 1.72 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 880.2 m | 890.3 m | 861.2 m | 853.0 m | 911.7 m | 862.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.68 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 9.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.5 bn | 11.4 bn | 9.9 bn | 19.6 bn | 9.9 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 10.1 bn | 9.3 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.5 bn | 14.6 bn | 15.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.0 bn | 509.0 m | 1.3 bn | 945.0 m | 6.4 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 25.1 bn | 26.2 bn | 26.1 bn | 32.8 bn | 37.4 bn | 37.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 191.0 m | 183.0 m | 140.0 m | 51.0 m | 1.3 bn | 468.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 10.0 bn | 9.5 bn | 8.7 bn | 14.2 bn | 11.0 bn | 11.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.1 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 18.5 bn | 19.1 bn | 18.0 bn | 23.8 bn | 23.0 bn | 23.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.6 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 9.0 bn | 14.4 bn | 14.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 563.0 m | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 312.0 m | 344.0 m | 317.0 m | 439.0 m | 519.0 m | 392.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 44.0 m ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 1.1 bn | -692.0 m | 1.7 bn | -660.0 m | -2.0 bn | -307.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -681.0 m | -1.6 bn | -2.9 bn | 4.6 bn | -4.6 bn | -4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 138.0 m | 417.0 m | 509.0 m | 620.0 m | 670.0 m | 772.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 527.0 m | 1.4 bn | 62.0 m | 1.9 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 29 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 45.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation29
- Returns85
- Quality22
- Balance sheet3
- Growth33
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.87 – 74.39 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)41.04 – 74.39 (Mid 53.53)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 2.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 9.4%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · insufficient data
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)8.87 – 11.93 (Mid 10.17)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 29/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -4.0% | 17 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | -7.9% | 30 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.9% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -25.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 52.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -2.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 16 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 286.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.2% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.3% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 33.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet3/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth33/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns85/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
Memo
CARRIER GLOBAL CORPORATION (CARR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 21.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.3%; net margin -7.9%; ROE -14.3%; net debt/EBITDA 52.2x.
The estimated value range is 24.96–43.16 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 31.85 USD, the price of 55.66 USD leaves a potential of -42.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -74.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 29/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 33.1%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -4.0%
- Net margin: -7.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -25.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 52.2x
- Interest coverage: -2.4x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 286.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, P/E (TTM).
Versus the vertical median
Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 358x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCIJohnson Controls International PLC | 85.7 bn | 25.1 | 24.1% | 14.5% | +2.8% | +21% / +166% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | 45.5 bn | — | -14.3% | -7.9% | −3.3% | −3% / +10% |
| LIILennox International Inc | 12.3 bn | 16.7 | 59.5% | 13.8% | −2.7% | −28% / −12% |
| MIDDThe Middleby Corporation | 5.8 bn | — | -16.2% | -13.9% | unavailable | +34% / +26% |
| AAONAaon, Inc. | 4.8 bn | 30.4 | 17.3% | 8.2% | +20.1% | −38% / −7% |
| ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc. | 4.6 bn | 25.1 | 109.8% | 10.1% | +13.3% | −3% / unavailable |
| HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 21.8 | 10.9% | 14.4% | +6.7% | +3% / +44% |
| SXIStandex International Corp | 3.0 bn | 26.8 | 15.3% | 12.5% | +12.8% | +3% / +88% |
| TNCTennant Co | 1.2 bn | 54.9 | 3.9% | 1.9% | −6.5% | −0% / −15% |
| TGENTecogen Inc. | 51.6 m | — | -77.5% | -42.3% | +19.7% | −77% / +94% |
| LBGJLi Bang International Corporation Inc. | 34.5 m | — | -16.6% | -9.1% | +2.9% | −100% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CARR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Carrier Global is a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, with net sales of $21.7 billion in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026, sales rose 4% to $6.4 billion, and the company raised its full-year outlook to about $23 billion 3. Results depend largely on demand from residential, commercial and data center markets, as well as on input costs and tariffs.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong, globally recognized brands combined with a track record of innovation and a large number of active patents.
- A balanced revenue mix between new equipment and recurring parts and service provides a base of aftermarket income.
- Extensive international presence reduces reliance on a single market, though it also exposes the company to currency risk.
Weaknesses
- Operating margins have declined in several segments in recent quarters due to higher input costs and less favorable product mix.
- Reliance on joint ventures and distribution partners can create control and performance risks.
- Sales in certain areas, such as truck and trailer transport, have been volatile and sensitive to production cycles.
Opportunities
- Demand from data centers and advanced cooling systems could become a major growth driver in the coming years.
- Expanding digital services and energy solutions could increase recurring revenue and customer engagement across the lifecycle.
- Redeploying capital into acquisitions and shareholder returns can create value if investments are well targeted.
Threats
- Tariffs and shifting trade policy in the United States and other countries could raise costs and reduce product competitiveness.
- Divergent regulations on refrigerants and emissions could render some products non-compliant and raise adaptation costs.
- Weaker demand in some regions, such as China, and political instability in areas like the Middle East could affect results.
Risks
- Currency and international exposurehigh
A large share of operations outside the United States exposes the company to exchange rate swings and local policy changes, which could reduce margins if foreign currencies weaken against the dollar 1.
- Tariffs and international tradehigh
Trade measures, including tariffs and counter-tariffs, can affect demand and the ability to produce or sell in certain countries, and rapid policy shifts add uncertainty 12.
- Margin pressuremedium
Higher input costs and less favorable product mix reduced operating margins in the second quarter of 2026, and this trend could continue if pricing does not fully offset costs 3.
- Joint venture and partnership risksmedium
Joint venture partners may have diverging interests, may block decisions or may fail to meet obligations, and some arrangements restrict competition in certain markets 1.
- Climate events and cybersecuritylow
Extreme weather and cyber incidents could disrupt operations, raise costs and affect reputation, and insurance does not always cover such losses 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If orders from data centers and commercial customers keep growing, the company could exceed its 2026 sales and adjusted profit targets 3.
- The brand portfolio, service base and digital innovation could support steadier margins over the long term, particularly if parts and services grow as a share of sales 1.
- Cash generation and the ability to return capital to shareholders provide flexibility, and divesting non-core businesses could simplify the portfolio 23.
What would break the thesis
- If cost pressures and unfavorable mix persist, operating margins could stay below earlier levels even as sales grow 3.
- Unstable trade policy and divergent regulations could raise costs and limit market access, which would weigh on results 12.
- Dependence on emerging markets and joint ventures brings performance and control risks that may be difficult to manage during economic slowdowns 1.
What to watch
- Completion of the NORESCO exit and its effect on sales and profit guidanceQ3 2026
- Trend in adjusted operating margin and input costs in the CSA segmentQ3 2026
- Development of data center orders and the backlogQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Carrier Global Corporation, known as Carrier, operates in heating, cooling and cold chain markets under brands such as Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba and Carrier Transicold. In fiscal 2025 it reported net sales of $21.7 billion and an operating profit of $2.2 billion, and about 52% of sales came from international operations, including U.S. exports 1. New equipment made up 72% of sales and parts and service 28% 1. The company focuses on digitally enabled solutions across the product lifecycle, not only on equipment sales.
Carrier's strategy combines product innovation with digital services, including the Abound building platform and the Lynx cold chain platform developed with AWS 1. The company targets investments of over $4 billion in climate and energy solutions by 2030 1, and for data centers it developed Carrier QuantumLeap, which combines traditional and liquid cooling 1.
Market context
Carrier operates in a global market for heating, cooling and cold chain equipment, where demand is shaped by urbanization, population growth, electrification and digitalization, trends the company views as favorable 1. Competition rests on technology differentiation, product performance, service, delivery schedule and price 1. Residential and light commercial markets showed signs of recovery in mid-2026, and orders tied to data centers rose sharply 3.
Seasonality affects demand, with residential air conditioning sales usually higher in the second and third calendar quarters, and truck production cycles in North America and Europe influence the transport segment 1. If regulatory requirements on refrigerants and emissions continue to fragment across regions, compliance costs could rise for industry participants 1.
Trends
- Data center demandtailwind
Orders tied to data centers rose more than 300% in the second quarter of 2026, and advanced cooling systems could become an important growth source if investment in digital infrastructure continues 3.
- Electrification and energy efficiencytailwind
Megatrends in electrification and energy efficiency support demand for heat pumps and intelligent energy management systems, which the company regards as long-term strategic advantages 1.
- Tariffs and trade policymixed
Tariffs have pressured costs, and the company has partly offset them through supply chain changes and pricing; after the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling, potential refunds of IEEPA tariffs remain unrecorded in the financial statements 2.
- Weak demand in some regionsheadwind
Lower residential and light commercial demand in China and pressure on joint venture income in the Middle East could limit growth in the CSAME segment 3.
Competitive position
Carrier describes its competition as significant and varied, ranging from regional or specialized companies to larger public or private companies 1. The main competitive factors are technology differentiation, product performance, service, delivery schedule and price, with brand reputation and quality also important 1.
The company relies on distribution partners and joint ventures, such as Watsco and Midea relationships, which both distribute and develop products but can also bring dependence and competition restrictions 1. The supplied sources do not list named publicly traded rivals explicitly, so no tickers are given for competitors beyond the partner names 1.
- Watsco, Inc.WSO
Distribution partner through the Carrier Enterprise joint venture, presented in the source as a strategic partner rather than a direct rival.
- Midea Group
Group with which Carrier has several joint ventures, a relationship that combines collaboration and competition in certain markets.
- AHI-Carrier FZC
Joint venture based in the United Arab Emirates through which the company distributes products in the region.
- Ariston Group
Buyer of the Riello business and a rival in heating and thermal systems for residential and commercial applications.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- What Potential Does 75F Acquisition Carry for Carrier Global (CARR)?Yahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- Carrier Global Stock: Is CARR Underperforming the Industrial Sector?Yahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 07 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Apr 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement03 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Carrier Global Corporation · 05 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Carrier Global Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Carrier Global Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.