olivLaw · US equity research
Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH
Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters · SIC 2086 · Vertical: Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters (SIC 2086)
Celsius Holdings is a functional energy drink company with three brands (CELSIUS, Alani Nu and Rockstar), distributed in the U.S. through Pepsi and in several markets in Europe and Asia-Pacific. The company grew sharply after its 2025 acquisitions, but a large share of sales depends on one distributor, and its flagship brand declined in 2026. Revenue of 817.9 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026 shows the scale of this shift.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) stock was 30.75 USD (+2.57% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.8 bn USD, P/E 104.3 on diluted EPS of 0.29 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.81, 52-week range 23.77–59.92 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 817.9 m USD (+10.6% YoY), net income of 55.3 m USD (−44.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.14 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.77 – 30.50
- above the upper band · %B 1.07 · band width 13.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 28.87 / 34.29
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.36 / 0.08
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.7% | −1.1% | +12.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.5% | −0.5% | +5.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.2% | +4.4% | −10.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −32.8% | +12.3% | −45.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −48.4% | +13.5% | −61.9 pp | +25.3% |
| 3 years | −47.1% | +76.4% | −123.6 pp | +37.5% |
| 5 years | −14.6% | +63.7% | −78.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 265.7 m | 332.2 m | 329.3 m | 739.3 m | 725.1 m | 721.6 m | 782.6 m | 817.9 m |
| Cost of revenue | 143.5 m | 165.5 m | 156.9 m | 358.4 m | 352.8 m | 379.8 m | 404.5 m | 424.2 m |
| Gross profit | 122.2 m | 166.7 m | 172.4 m | 380.9 m | 372.3 m | 341.8 m | 378.1 m | 393.7 m |
| Research & development | 300.0 k | 200.0 k | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | 125.4 m | 185.2 m | 120.3 m | 237.9 m | 205.6 m | 235.0 m | 234.6 m | 237.6 m |
| Operating income | -3.2 m | -18.5 m | 52.0 m | 143.0 m | -80.0 m | 26.1 m | 139.0 m | 75.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.2 m ≈ | 2.4 m | 2.6 m | 9.1 m ≈ | 8.8 m ≈ | 8.9 m | 9.1 m | 10.1 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.1 m | 18.2 m | 12.7 m | 11.8 m | 11.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 8.2 m | -10.2 m | 61.0 m | 129.5 m | -88.0 m | 22.6 m | 137.5 m | 69.5 m |
| Income tax | 1.8 m | 8.7 m | 16.6 m | 29.6 m | -27.0 m | -2.1 m | 27.4 m | 14.2 m |
| Net income | 6.4 m | -18.9 m | 44.4 m | 99.9 m | -61.0 m | 24.7 m | 110.1 m | 55.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | -0.08 ≈ | 0.15 | 0.33 | -0.27 | 0.09 ≈ | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| Operating cash flow | 12.9 m ≈ | 75.7 m | 103.4 m | 43.7 m ≈ | 331.8 m ≈ | -119.4 m | 73.7 m | 222.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 4.2 m ≈ | 5.4 m | 6.9 m | 8.3 m ≈ | 10.3 m ≈ | 10.5 m | 7.9 m | 17.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.7 m | 603.0 k | 1.9 m | 900.0 k | 448.0 k ≈ | 2.5 m | 8.8 m | 1.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 68 percentile of its own 22-quarter history (min 6.7, median 94.9, max 440.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | ⚠ 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 52.6 m | 75.1 m | 130.7 m | 314.3 m | 653.6 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +45.5% | +42.9% | — | +140.4% | +108.0% | +101.7% | +2.9% | +85.5% |
| Net income | -11.2 m | 10.0 m | 8.5 m | 3.9 m | -187.3 m | 226.8 m | 145.1 m | 108.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | — | −53.8% | −4,857.0% | unavailable | −36.0% | −25.6% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.23 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.02 | -0.88 | 0.77 | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | — | −81.8% | −4,500.0% | unavailable | −41.6% | −44.4% |
| net % | -21.3% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 1.3% | -28.7% | 17.2% | 10.7% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | -11.8 m | 956.0 k | 2.8 m | -99.7 m | 99.9 m | 123.8 m | 239.5 m | 323.4 m |
The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 398.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 676.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 278.1 m USD
- Equity
- 1.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.57x
- Current ratio
- 1.68x
- ROE
- 13.7%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 12.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 130.7 m | 314.3 m | 653.6 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 69.8 m | 186.1 m | 382.7 m | 684.9 m | 675.4 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 61.0 m | 128.2 m | 270.9 m | 633.1 m | 680.2 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 500.0 k | 1.0 m | 400.0 k | 1.7 m | 1.0 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | — | 428.7 m | 366.8 m | 524.5 m | 798.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 7.9 m | -4.1 m | -157.8 m | 266.4 m | 155.7 m | 141.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 1.3 m | 1.9 m | 3.2 m | 7.3 m | 29.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | -2.8 m ≈ | -155.9 m ≈ | 269.6 m ≈ | 163.0 m ≈ | 170.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 49.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 8.6 m | -4.1 m | -152.7 m | 291.7 m | 195.1 m | 125.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 116.0 k | -8.0 m | 34.6 m | 64.9 m | 50.0 m | 17.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 8.5 m | 3.9 m | -187.3 m | 226.8 m | 145.1 m | 108.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.11 | 0.02 | -0.88 | 0.77 | 0.45 | 0.25 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 74.4 m | 233.1 m | 226.9 m | 237.0 m | 237.4 m | 254.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 43.2 m | 16.3 m | 614.2 m | 756.0 m | 890.2 m | 398.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 15.0 m | 38.7 m | 63.3 m | 183.7 m | 270.3 m | 755.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 18.4 m | 191.2 m | 173.3 m | 229.3 m | 131.2 m | 337.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 93.2 m | 262.4 m | 918.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 579.4 k | 3.2 m | 10.2 m | 24.9 m | 55.6 m | 87.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 10.4 m | 14.5 m | 13.7 m | 14.2 m | 71.6 m | 917.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 16.6 m | 16.3 m | 12.3 m | 12.1 m | 12.2 m | 111.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 131.3 m | 314.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 11.9 m | 35.8 m | 36.2 m | 42.8 m | 41.3 m | 137.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | — | 0 | 669.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 26.4 m | 93.1 m | 161.3 m | 276.6 m | 365.5 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 27.0 m | 97.0 m | 357.5 m | 447.9 m | 542.5 m | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 104.3 m † | 217.0 m † | 40.1 m † | 264.0 m † | 399.9 m † | 1.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.4 m | -96.6 m | 108.2 m | 141.2 m | 262.9 m | 359.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 574.0 k | 3.2 m | 8.3 m | 17.4 m | 23.4 m | 36.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.8 m ≈ | -99.7 m ≈ | 99.9 m ≈ | 123.8 m ≈ | 239.5 m ≈ | 323.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 757.0 k | -1.3 m | -5.7 m | -14.2 m | -101.7 m | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 15.6 m | 71.4 m | 534.1 m | -25.2 m | -26.0 m | 582.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 2.3 m | 5.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 51 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation21
- Balance sheet73
- Quality64
- Growth100
- Returns2
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.35 – 53.81 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)34.48 – 53.81 (Mid 41.92)WACC 9.0% · starting FCFF 512.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 1.1%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E3.35 – 6.29 (Mid 5.96)3 companies used · median multiple 20.2x · quartiles 11.4x – 21.3xCOKE, FIZZ, MNST
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 51/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.6% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.2% | 25 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 358.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 56.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 22 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 83 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 104.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 39.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.9% | 74 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.2% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality64/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (CELH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 85.5%; net margin 4.2%; ROE 10.5%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 18.91–30.05 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 23.94 USD, the price of 30.75 USD leaves a potential of -22.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -28.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 51/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 358.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 56.7%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- FCF yield: 5.9%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 4.2%
- Interest coverage: 3.0x
- P/E (TTM): 104.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 39.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters (SIC 2086) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corp | 47.8 bn | 22.4 | 25.7% | 23.1% | +10.7% | +30% / +77% |
| CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc. | 7.8 bn | 104.3 | 10.5% | 4.2% | +85.5% | −48% / −47% |
| FIZZNational Beverage Corp. | 3.5 bn | 20.2 | 40.1% | 14.8% | −1.7% | +11% / −21% |
| COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 2.5 | 90.0% | 7.5% | +4.8% | +25% / +178% |
| REEDReed's, Inc. | 12.0 m | — | -14,800.0% | -63.5% | −10.2% | −80% / −92% |
| FMXMexican Economic Development, Inc. | — | — | 12.0% | 5.1% | −9.9% | +36% / +3% |
| KOFCoca Cola Femsa Sab De Cv | — | 82.6 | — | — | +18.2% | +33% / +38% |
| ZVIAZevia PBC | — | — | -18.0% | -4.8% | +4.0% | −55% / −44% |
| CCEPCOCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc | — | — | 23.8% | 9.3% | +2.3% | +26% / +91% |
| AKO-AAndina Bottling Co Inc | — | — | 25.2% | 8.0% | +3.7% | +18% / +105% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CELH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 34.79 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 61.23 Total return 99% · Per year 99% | 91.84 Total return 199% · Per year 199% |
| 3 years | 41.27 Total return 34% · Per year 10% | 80.97 Total return 163% · Per year 38% | 132.25 Total return 330% · Per year 63% |
| 5 years | 48.95 Total return 59% · Per year 10% | 107.08 Total return 248% · Per year 28% | 190.44 Total return 519% · Per year 44% |
- Exit P/E± 20.24
- Net margin± 14.17
- Annual revenue growth± 10.57
- Annual dilution± 1.19
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Celsius Holdings is a functional energy drink company with three brands (CELSIUS, Alani Nu and Rockstar), distributed in the U.S. through Pepsi and in several markets in Europe and Asia-Pacific. The company grew sharply after its 2025 acquisitions, but a large share of sales depends on one distributor, and its flagship brand declined in 2026. Revenue of 817.9 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026 shows the scale of this shift 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A diversified portfolio of three brands and a significant share of the U.S. RTD energy category 3. Rapid growth of Alani Nu and the integration of acquisitions give the company a broader base 3.
- Strong distribution through the Pepsi network, which provides market access and commercial execution in the U.S. and Canada 1. The relationship also includes a coordination mechanism called the Captaincy 1.
- International presence in Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, with growth in CELSIUS international sales in 2026 13.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on a single distributor, Pepsi, which accounts for a major share of revenue and receivables 1. If the relationship changes, the impact on sales could be significant 1.
- The flagship CELSIUS brand declined in 2026, and gross margin fell compared with the prior year 3. Promotional pressure and raw material costs have limited profitability 3.
- Production relies largely on external co-packers, which creates risks of interruption and quality control issues 1.
Opportunities
- Growth in the functional category and consumer interest in zero-sugar products can support brand expansion 13. Alani Nu has room to grow in the U.S. and internationally 1.
- International expansion, especially in the Nordics, Iberia, the UK and Australia, could open new revenue sources 3.
- If SKU optimization and efficiency investments succeed, a recovery of the CELSIUS brand could rebuild organic growth 3.
Threats
- Intense competition from large producers and new entrants, who may use aggressive pricing, could reduce market share 1.
- Retailer consolidation can lead to pricing pressure and additional promotional costs 1.
- Rules on labeling, advertising and ingredients, along with risks linked to influencers and AI-generated content, could affect reputation and results 1.
Risks
- Dependence on Pepsihigh
Pepsi accounts for a major part of sales and receivables, and a rupture or a change in terms could seriously affect results 1. Pepsi also has influence over strategic decisions through its preferred stock and Board seats 1.
- Decline of the CELSIUS brandhigh
Sales of the flagship brand fell in the second quarter of 2026, and SKU optimization may not restore growth as expected 3. If the decline continues, revenue and market share could be affected.
- Margin pressuremedium
Gross margin fell because of promotions, aluminum costs and acquisition integration, and industry pressure on costs may continue 3. If raw material prices rise further, profitability could decline.
- Reliance on co-packersmedium
Most products are made by third parties, which can lead to delays, quality problems or the need to find replacement suppliers quickly at higher cost 1. An incident at a co-packer could damage the brand.
- Acquisition integrationlow
Integrating Alani Nu and Rockstar, both large acquisitions with risks of brand overlap, may not deliver the expected benefits 1. If integration is delayed, costs and operational risks could rise.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Alani Nu keeps growing and CELSIUS recovers after SKU optimization, the company could sustain solid revenue growth across several brands 3. A share of nearly one fifth of the U.S. RTD energy category gives it an important position 3.
- A more diversified portfolio and the Rockstar acquisition can reduce reliance on a single brand, and growth in Europe and Asia-Pacific could add revenue 13.
- If integration of acquisitions shows up in margins, the company could partly recover the pressure seen in 2026 3.
What would break the thesis
- If the decline of the CELSIUS brand continues, core revenue could remain under pressure and market share could fall 3.
- Heavy dependence on a single distributor may limit flexibility and reduce bargaining power 1.
- Falling gross margin and high raw material costs could reduce profitability even if sales grow 3.
What to watch
- Trajectory of CELSIUS sales after SKU optimizationQ3 2026
- Recovery of gross margin toward 2025 levels2026
- Effects of Rockstar and Alani Nu integration on costsQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: CELH), incorporated in Nevada in 2005, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes energy and wellness beverages under the CELSIUS, Alani Nu and Rockstar brands 1. Products are sold through grocery chains, convenience stores, fitness centers, vitamin specialty stores and e-commerce platforms in the U.S., Canada, Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific 1. The company relies mainly on co-packers for production and also operates an in-house facility 1.
According to the 2025 annual report, sales to Pepsi were 43.2% of total revenue, and receivables from Pepsi were 46.2% of total receivables at December 31, 2025 1. Pepsi is the primary distributor in the U.S. and Canada for all three brands under the A&R agreements, and the relationship includes an enhanced commercial role called the Captaincy 1. Pepsi also holds preferred stock and has two seats on the Board 1.
Segments
CELSIUS
CELSIUS is the flagship functional energy brand, launched in 2005 and sold as ready-to-drink, powder and hydration products 12. In the second quarter of 2026, brand revenue fell 11.7% year over year, reflecting higher trade and promotional investment, SKU optimization and a planned moderation in innovation 3. International revenue for the brand grew in the same quarter but remains much smaller 3.
Market context
Trends
- Moderating growth in the energy categoryheadwind
Category growth has moderated over the past year, although demand for functional beverages remains supported by longer-term trends 1. If moderation continues, revenue growth could become harder to sustain without new acquisitions or launches.
- Consumers focused on wellnesstailwind
Consumers increasingly seek products aligned with wellness and fitness goals, and Celsius sees adoption beyond exercise-related occasions 1. This supports the diversification toward brands such as Alani Nu.
- Retail consolidation and price pressureheadwind
Consolidation of retailers in North America and Europe can lead to pricing pressure and higher promotional demands 1. If these demands grow, margins could be affected.
- Growth of e-commercemixed
Sales through online platforms and subscription services are growing and may shift the balance between physical and digital channels, while relationships with traditional customers must be maintained 1. Digital expansion can support new sales if this transition is managed well.
Competitive position
The energy drink market is highly competitive, with international, national, regional and local producers, and the company says it competes with all categories of non-alcoholic refreshments 1. Competition includes established brands and new entrants that may use aggressive pricing, which could affect market share and profitability 1.
The company names Monster Beverage, Red Bull, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Keurig Dr Pepper, Nestlé, BlueTriton, Starbucks, Congo Brands and Molson Coors among direct competitors 1. The Pepsi partnership means one competitor is also the company's primary distributor 1.
- Monster Beverage CorporationMNST
Direct competitor named by the company in the functional energy drink sector 1.
- Red Bull GmbH
Energy drink producer named as a direct rival in the annual report 1.
- The Coca-Cola CompanyKO
Direct competitor named in the annual report, which also operates in other beverage markets 1.
- PepsiPEP
Primary distributor of the company in the U.S. and Canada, and also a competitor in beverages 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Val de aer polar în România. Temperaturile pot ajunge chiar și la minus 10 grade CelsiusLibertatea.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Atac cibernetic asupra rezervelor de sânge din Franța. Hackerii au modificat temperatura camerelor frigorifice de la -30 la 110 grade CelsiusAdevărul · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- METEO | Vremea se răcește: Meteorologii anunță înghețuri de până la -4 grade CelsiusMoldova 1 — Teleradio-Moldova (MD) · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Atacurile cibernetice asupra supermarketurilor se extind în Europa: peste 100 de magazine afectate în șapte țări. Hackerii au ridicat temperaturile congelatoarelor până la 50 de grade CelsiusFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Atac cibernetic de amploare asupra supermarketurilor din Europa. Frigiderele au ajuns la 55 de grade Celsius, iar alimente de milioane de euro au fost distruse. Şase magazine din România ar putea fi printre ţinteZiarul Financiar · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Atacuri cibernetice asupra frigiderelor în supermarketurile din Europa: „Toate congelatoarele noastre au atins 50 de grade Celsius” - Ziarul de GardăZiarul de Gardă (MD) · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Zeci de supermarketuri din Europa, vizate de un posibil atac cibernetic. Frigiderele au ajuns la 70 de grade Celsius - cotidianul.mdSurge — Google News · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Zeci de supermarketuri din Europa, vizate de un posibil atac cibernetic. Frigiderele au ajuns la 70 de grade Celsius - cotidianul.mdSurge — Google News · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Ziua de 1 noiembrie în care în România s-au înregistrat temperaturi de peste 30 de grade CelsiusHotNews.ro · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Bucureștiul se pregătește de primul episod de îngheț. Data la care termometrele ar putea indica temperaturi sub zero grade CelsiusLibertatea.ro · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Ploi, temperaturi de până la minus 3 grade Celsius, lapoviță și ninsori. Prognoza meteo ANM pentru perioada 2-30 noiembrie 2026Libertatea.ro · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- FT: UE le cere țărilor membre să se pregătească de o creștere de până la 3 grade Celsius a temperaturii globaleAntena 3 CNN · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Vreme de toamnă capricioasă: de la 20 de grade Celsius la ploi și zăpadă de 10 centimetriAdevărul · 26 Oct 2026 · RO
- Cum reușesc nordicii să păstreze căldura în case, chiar și la -30 de grade Celsius. Metoda este veche de secoleAntena 3 CNN · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Limiting Global Warming to 1.5 Degrees Celsius Is No Longer Feasible, UN Report FindsInside Climate News · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tokyo and Osaka record latest-ever day above 30 CelsiusThe Japan Times · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cum face ravagii El Niño în întreaga lume. O anomalie de 2,5 grade Celsius într-un punct cheie din Pacific schimbă totulAntena 3 CNN · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Vremea se încălzește în România, cu temperaturi de 25 de grade Celsius. Prognoza meteo ANM pentru perioada 18-28 octombrie 2026Libertatea.ro · 18 Oct 2026 · RO
- Vreme rece, în Dobrogea, cu o maximă termică de 17 grade Celsius - Radio ConstanțaSurge — Google News · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- Vremea se răcește și mai tare în Dobrogea: ANM anunță temperaturi nocturne de 6 grade Celsius - Ziarul AmprentaSurge — Google News · 15 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report10 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jul 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement14 Apr 2026
- Annual report02 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Celsius Holdings, Inc. · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Celsius Holdings, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Celsius Holdings, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.