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olivLaw · US equity research

Chemed Corporation CHE

Services-Home Health Care Services · SIC 8082 · Vertical: Services-Home Health Care Services (SIC 8082)

548.64USD+2.81% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Chemed Corporation, through its VITAS subsidiary, is one of the largest hospice and palliative care providers in the US, and through Roto-Rooter it operates plumbing and drain cleaning services. In the second quarter of 2026 consolidated revenue rose 8.8% to 673.3 million USD, and the company raised its full-year 2026 guidance mainly on VITAS outperformance.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Chemed Corporation (CHE) stock was 548.64 USD (+2.81% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.1 bn USD, P/E 26.2 on diluted EPS of 20.91 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.46%, beta 0.20, 52-week range 368.59–552.72 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 690.9 m USD (+10.6% YoY), net income of 71.6 m USD (+11.5% YoY), diluted EPS 5.45 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
7.1 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.2
Diluted EPS TTM 20.91 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.81%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.46%
DPS 12m 2.50
Beta (2y)
0.20
Volatility (1y) 29%
52-week range
368.59552.72

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
65.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
488.25 – 548.33
above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 11.6%
SMA 50 / 200
514.71 / 464.08
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
8.12 / 4.53
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+7.3%−1.1%+8.4 pp—
3 months+0.4%−0.5%+0.8 pp—
6 months+29.2%+4.4%+24.8 pp—
Year to date+28.2%+12.3%+15.9 pp—
1 year+24.9%+13.5%+11.4 pp+6.4%
3 years−6.6%+76.4%−83.0 pp+26.6%
5 years+10.5%+63.7%−53.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−23.0%
23 Feb 2026 → 27 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−43.4%
19 Mar 2024 → 27 Mar 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+2.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
690.9 m USD
+10.6% YoY
Net income
71.6 m USD
+11.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
5.45
+22.2% YoY
net / operating
10.4% / 14.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue640.0 m646.9 m618.8 m624.9 m639.3 m657.5 m673.3 m690.9 m
Cost of revenue405.9 m430.5 m434.1 m425.1 m417.0 m441.7 m451.8 m458.0 m
SG&A104.3 m105.6 m100.3 m105.8 m105.5 m114.3 m115.2 m111.5 m
Operating income113.9 m94.8 m68.1 m74.8 m100.7 m84.6 m89.2 m96.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation15.8 m16.0 m16.3 m ≈16.2 m ≈16.3 m16.9 m17.0 m ≈17.4 m ≈
Interest expense499.0 k329.0 k443.0 k457.0 k521.0 k512.0 k1.8 m2.1 m
Pre-tax income120.1 m95.7 m71.1 m83.5 m105.4 m88.8 m91.3 m96.7 m
Income tax29.8 m23.9 m18.6 m19.3 m28.7 m22.5 m23.6 m25.1 m
Net income90.3 m71.8 m52.5 m64.2 m76.8 m66.3 m67.7 m71.6 m
Diluted EPS6.03 ≈4.863.574.465.49 ≈4.845.135.45
Operating cash flow164.9 m32.7 m138.6 m ≈83.4 m ≈133.5 m88.2 m84.8 m ≈56.6 m ≈
Capex12.8 m13.3 m15.8 m17.5 m16.3 m17.1 m15.5 m ≈18.7 m ≈
Dividends paid7.5 m7.3 m7.2 m ≈8.7 m ≈8.5 m8.2 m7.9 m ≈9.2 m ≈
Share repurchases209.3 m33.2 m42.9 m ≈180.8 m ≈174.6 m190.0 m97.5 m ≈62.5 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 38 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 20.6, median 28.4, max 51.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.8 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn2.3 bn2.4 bn2.5 bn
Revenue YoY+7.0%+8.7%+7.3%+2.9%−0.2%+6.1%+7.4%+4.1%
Net income205.5 m219.9 m319.5 m268.6 m249.6 m272.5 m302.0 m265.2 m
Net income YoY+109.4%+7.0%+45.3%−15.9%−7.0%+9.2%+10.8%−12.2%
Diluted EPS12.2313.3119.4816.8516.5317.9319.8918.34
Diluted EPS YoY+108.7%+8.8%+46.4%−13.5%−1.9%+8.5%+10.9%−7.8%
net %11.5%11.3%15.4%12.6%11.7%12.0%12.4%10.5%
Free cash flow234.3 m248.2 m430.5 m249.9 m252.6 m273.4 m368.0 m325.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
74.5 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
979.4 m USD
Total assets
1.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.05x
ROE
25.3%
ROA
16.5%
FCF margin
12.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
798.8 m ≈
2024
854.3 m ≈
2025
823.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
395.1 m
2024
424.4 m
2025
417.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
340.6 m
2024
366.5 m
2025
338.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
60.9 m
2024
63.0 m
2025
64.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
401.4 m ≈
2024
429.5 m ≈
2025
403.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
3.1 m
2024
1.8 m
2025
1.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
350.4 m
2024
399.5 m
2025
355.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
77.9 m
2024
97.5 m
2025
90.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
272.5 m
2024
302.0 m
2025
265.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
17.93
2024
19.89
2025
18.34

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
15.2 m
2024
15.2 m
2025
14.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.56
2024
1.80
2025
2.20

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
264.0 m
2024
178.4 m
2025
74.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
181.5 m
2024
171.2 m
2025
182.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
12.0 m
2024
8.2 m
2025
7.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
500.8 m
2024
394.7 m
2025
302.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
203.8 m
2024
200.8 m
2025
205.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
585.0 m
2024
666.7 m
2025
667.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
90.3 m
2024
92.2 m
2025
82.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
64.0 m
2024
44.1 m
2025
64.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2023verified

Current liabilities
2023
312.1 m
2024
285.7 m
2025
287.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
560.2 m
2024
549.6 m
2025
558.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.1 bn †
2024
1.1 bn †
2025
979.4 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
330.3 m
2024
417.5 m
2025
388.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
56.9 m
2024
49.5 m
2025
62.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
273.4 m ≈
2024
368.0 m ≈
2025
325.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-60.6 m
2024
-143.9 m
2025
-59.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-79.8 m
2024
-359.2 m
2025
-432.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
23.5 m
2024
27.1 m
2025
31.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
67.7 m
2024
361.4 m
2025
431.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-12.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-11.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
33.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
16.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
29.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
16.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
26.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
26.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
187.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
75.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
363.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
67.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
295.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
104.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
82.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
2 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
12 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
22 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
7.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
7.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
25.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
8.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
16.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
19.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
24.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 63 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

548.64 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 7.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
7.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
8.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
16.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
29.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2755derived 240

Score by group

  • Valuation21
  • Balance sheet85
  • Quality100
  • Growth36
  • Returns100

Estimated value range

Low
394.71
USD per share
Mid
461.48
USD per share
High
555.75
USD per share
Price: 548.64 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -15.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -18.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 302.27 – 620.90 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)302.27 – 471.34 (Mid 367.86)
    WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 299.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 24.1%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA471.05 – 620.90 (Mid 494.29)
    3 companies used · median multiple 15.1x · quartiles 14.4x – 18.9x
    AVAH, BTSG, OPCH
  • Peers: P/E394.71 – 555.75 (Mid 461.48)
    4 companies used · median multiple 22.1x · quartiles 18.9x – 26.6x
    ADUS, AVAH, BTSG, OPCH
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate28.91 – 38.88 (Mid 33.16)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Home Health Care Services (SIC 8082)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 63/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality26.1%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality10.6%100 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality104.6%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth5.8%49 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth3.5%23 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.4x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet75.4x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x25 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation26.2x17 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation16.7x0 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.1%52 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns7.8%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns11.4%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth36/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

CHEMED CORPORATION (CHE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.1%; net margin 10.6%; ROE 29.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.4x.

The estimated value range is 394.71–555.75 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 461.48 USD, the price of 548.64 USD leaves a potential of -15.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -18.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 26.1%
  • Net margin: 10.6%
  • FCF conversion: 104.6%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.4x
  • Interest coverage: 75.4x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.8%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 11.4%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 3.5%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 26.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 16.7x

Versus the vertical median

Services-Home Health Care Services (SIC 8082) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
26.2x
vertical median 22.1x
above median (+18.9%)
EV/EBITDA
16.7x
vertical median 15.1x
above median (+10.7%)
P/S
2.7x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+194.6%)
P/B
8.3x
vertical median 3.6x
above median (+131.6%)
ROE
29.1%
vertical median 16.0%
above median (+81.7%)
Net margin
10.6%
vertical median 3.7%
above median (+183.7%)
EBIT margin
13.9%
vertical median 5.9%
above median (+136.9%)
Revenue YoY
4.1%
vertical median 18.1%
below median (−77.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.4x
vertical median 2.2x
below median (−80.2%)
Dividend yield
0.5%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BTSGBrightSpring Health Services, Inc.13.9 bn37.820.5%2.7%+28.2%+93% / unavailable
CHEChemed Corporation7.1 bn26.229.1%10.6%+4.1%+25% / −7%
OPCHOption Care Health, Inc.4.7 bn22.816.0%3.7%+13.0%+2% / +6%
AVAHAveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.3.1 bn11.6199.6%10.6%unavailable+52% / +421%
ADUSAddus HomeCare Corp2.4 bn21.310.0%7.4%+23.2%+6% / +47%
AHCOAdaptHealth Corp.998.0 m—-28.6%-11.4%−0.5%−24% / −14%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CHE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
341.03
Total return -37% · Per year -37%
602.53
Total return 10% · Per year 10%
907.06
Total return 66% · Per year 66%
3 years
339.83
Total return -37% · Per year -14%
674.73
Total return 25% · Per year 8%
1,114.01
Total return 105% · Per year 27%
5 years
338.63
Total return -36% · Per year -9%
755.58
Total return 41% · Per year 7%
1,368.17
Total return 153% · Per year 20%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 168.68
  • Net margin± 118.08
  • Annual revenue growth± 95.71
  • Annual dilution± 9.92

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Chemed Corporation, through its VITAS subsidiary, is one of the largest hospice and palliative care providers in the US, and through Roto-Rooter it operates plumbing and drain cleaning services. In the second quarter of 2026 consolidated revenue rose 8.8% to 673.3 million USD 3, and the company raised its full-year 2026 guidance mainly on VITAS outperformance.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a leading position in hospice care and one of the best-known service brands in the US, Roto-Rooter, which supports demand and name recognition.
  • Growth in VITAS patient volume and adjusted margins shows management's execution capability in the core segment.
  • The company has put in place a new revolving credit facility with expansion options and has substantially reduced its shares outstanding.

Weaknesses

  • The VITAS segment depends almost entirely on government payments, which makes revenue sensitive to changes in reimbursement rules.
  • Roto-Rooter operates in fragmented local markets where pricing and reputation can be hard to defend.
  • The company relies on technical talent and branch-level management, and losing key staff could affect execution.

Opportunities

  • Rising demand for palliative and hospice care as the population ages could support VITAS expansion.
  • Acquisitions at Roto-Rooter, such as the four completed recently, can extend geographic reach and service volume.
  • If Medicare claims processes become simpler, VITAS revenue could become more predictable.

Threats

  • Changes to Medicare and Medicaid rates or budget cuts could directly affect VITAS revenue and profitability.
  • Removing or weakening certificate of need rules could bring new competitors into VITAS markets.
  • Private equity investment in home services could increase competitive pressure on Roto-Rooter.

Risks

  • Dependence on Medicare and Medicaidhigh

    Most VITAS revenue comes from government programs, and any reduction in payments or change in methodology could materially affect results 1.

  • Billing audits and claims reviewshigh

    Reviews and audits can delay, suspend or reduce payments, and the TPE program can extend collection timelines 1.

  • Medicare Cap limitationsmedium

    Per-admission payment caps can limit revenue in some programs, and county-level differences can amplify the effect 12.

  • Competition at Roto-Rootermedium

    A fragmented market and private equity investment could pressure pricing or market share 1.

  • Shortage of skilled labormedium

    Recruiting and retaining licensed plumbers and clinical staff is difficult and could slow growth 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Growth in VITAS patient volume and the raised 2026 guidance could show the core segment regaining its normal growth pace.
  • A substantial reduction in shares outstanding can support per-share results if the repurchase program continues.
  • If Roto-Rooter sustains its margins and continues acquisitions, the company could benefit from a more diversified revenue base.

What would break the thesis

  • Near-total dependence on government payments leaves VITAS revenue exposed to policy changes.
  • Roto-Rooter margins declined in the second quarter while administrative expenses rose, which could limit profitability.
  • Debt and credit commitments have grown with acquisitions and repurchases, which could reduce financial flexibility if results weaken.

What to watch

  • Pace of VITAS days-of-care and admissions growthQ3 2026
  • Final outcome of Medicare Cap limitations and any guidance revisions2026
  • Roto-Rooter adjusted EBITDA margin relative to the second-quarter level of 21.1%Q3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Chemed purchases, operates and divests subsidiaries engaged in diverse business activities with the aim of maximizing shareholder value 1. Day-to-day operations are decentralized, while the corporate office handles long-term strategy, capital allocation and the selection of executives of each unit 1. During 2025 the company operated two segments, VITAS and Roto-Rooter 1.

VITAS provides hospice and palliative care through networks of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy and volunteers 1. Roto-Rooter provides plumbing, drain cleaning, excavation and water restoration to residential and commercial customers 1. Roto-Rooter services are delivered through company-owned branches, independent contractors and franchisees 2.

The sources show that VITAS depends heavily on Medicare and Medicaid payments, which make up more than 95% of its net patient service revenue 1. This concentration means profitability depends on managing the cost of delivering services, especially labor 1.

Market context

US hospice care is competitive, with small community-based providers dominating and many organizations competing at once 1. In plumbing services competition is fragmented, with local and regional firms as the main rivals 1. Recent private equity investments in home service companies, including plumbing, intensify competition 1.

The sources note that about 20% of hospice providers are not-for-profit 1. Relatively low barriers to entry in many VITAS markets could attract new competitors if certificate of need rules were weakened 1.

Trends

  • VITAS volume recoverytailwind

    Days-of-care and admissions grew in the second quarter of 2026, and management links the recovery to initiatives to return to normal growth after the 2025 Medicare Cap issue 23. If this momentum holds, it could support segment revenue.

  • Pressure on Medicare ratesheadwind

    VITAS revenue depends on annual Medicare and Medicaid rate adjustments, which could be reduced or could lag inflation 1. Medicare caps and claims reviews could slow collections 1.

  • Inflation, tariffs and fuel costsmixed

    Management is monitoring inflation, tariffs and the effects of the war with Iran on fuel prices, which could affect net sales and profitability 2. The company does not expect a material negative effect for the rest of fiscal 2026 2.

  • Seasonality and weathermixed

    Roto-Rooter revenue is affected by weather patterns, and VITAS admissions in Florida rise in winter as Medicare patients relocate 1. This seasonality can create quarterly variation.

Competitive position

In hospice, competition comes from national and regional providers, hospitals, nursing homes, home health agencies and other care providers, some with greater financial resources than VITAS 1. In plumbing, competition turns on advertising, range of services, name recognition, emergency availability and pricing 1.

Roto-Rooter faces fragmented local and regional rivals, and changes in digital marketing and AI platforms could shift how customers find services 1. Competition for skilled technicians, especially licensed plumbers, is intense 1.

  • Regional and local hospice providers

    Most hospice providers are small, community-based organizations that compete on quality of service and referral relationships.

  • Hospitals and health systems

    Hospitals and health systems also offer palliative care programs and can compete for the same patient referrals.

  • Long-term care facilities and home health agencies

    These providers can offer similar home or facility-based care and are also important referral sources.

  • Local plumbing firms and private equity-backed home service companies

    The plumbing market is fragmented and private equity investment in home services has recently intensified competition.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Chemed Corporation · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Chemed Corporation · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Chemed Corporation · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.