olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Criteo S.A. CRTO

Services-Advertising Agencies · SIC 7311 · Vertical: Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311)

15.64USD+3.10% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Criteo is a global commerce intelligence platform that connects brands, agencies, retailers and media owners through commerce data and AI-driven advertising. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue fell (11)% to $428.0 million and the company cut its annual guidance, making the durability of its position in digital advertising a relevant question.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Criteo S.A. (CRTO) stock was 15.64 USD (+3.10% on the day), with market capitalisation 769.7 m USD, P/E 11.4 on diluted EPS of 1.38 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.93, 52-week range 14.17–23.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 416.5 m USD (−11.3% YoY), net income of 5.6 m USD (−85.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.11 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
769.7 m USD
shares as of 30 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.4
Diluted EPS TTM 1.38 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
8.80%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.93
Volatility (1y) 57%
52-week range
14.1723.28

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
54.2
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
14.23 – 15.89
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 11.0%
SMA 50 / 200
16.01 / 18.02
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.26 / -0.41
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+7.9%−1.1%+9.0 pp—
3 months−8.3%−0.5%−7.8 pp—
6 months−1.4%+4.4%−5.8 pp—
Year to date−24.1%+12.3%−36.4 pp—
1 year−29.1%+13.5%−42.7 pp+12.3%
3 years−34.6%+76.4%−111.0 pp+3.1%
5 years−61.5%+63.7%−125.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−39.1%
13 Jul 2026 → 27 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−71.5%
26 Aug 2024 → 27 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−17.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
416.5 m USD
−11.3% YoY
Net income
5.6 m USD
−85.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.11
−84.3% YoY
net / operating
1.3% / 5.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue553.0 m451.4 m482.7 m469.7 m541.1 m424.6 m428.0 m416.5 m
Cost of revenue218.6 m187.1 m190.6 m181.5 m211.1 m174.3 m172.5 m176.1 m
Gross profit301.0 m237.0 m258.5 m256.5 m297.4 m222.7 m222.2 m207.7 m
Research & development67.6 m60.7 m79.6 m67.7 m75.3 m69.7 m71.9 m57.2 m
Operating income94.5 m48.2 m30.5 m51.6 m72.5 m10.4 m15.0 m21.0 m
Interest expense487.0 k430.0 k657.0 k715.0 k659.0 k764.0 k660.0 k863.0 k
Pre-tax income96.7 m50.5 m28.7 m51.6 m72.8 m12.3 m15.3 m22.0 m
Income tax24.8 m10.5 m5.7 m11.5 m26.5 m3.7 m3.6 m15.9 m
Net income71.1 m37.9 m21.3 m37.8 m47.6 m7.8 m11.2 m5.6 m
Diluted EPS1.23 ≈0.660.390.700.90 ≈0.150.220.11
Operating cash flow169.5 m62.3 m-1.4 m ≈89.6 m ≈160.7 m48.2 m20.3 m ≈56.9 m ≈
Capex—17.1 m35.3 m ≈23.0 m ≈27.4 m32.8 m58.2 m ≈35.8 m ≈
Share repurchases67.1 m56.2 m48.3 m ≈10.9 m ≈36.6 m31.0 m30.4 m ≈4.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 23 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 5.9, median 18.5, max 552.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.3 bn2.3 bn2.1 bn2.3 bn2.0 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn
Revenue YoY+0.2%−1.7%−8.4%+8.8%−10.5%−3.3%−0.8%+0.6%
Net income88.6 m90.7 m71.7 m134.5 m9.0 m53.3 m111.6 m144.6 m
Net income YoY−2.8%+2.4%−21.0%+87.6%−93.3%+494.9%+109.5%+29.6%
Diluted EPS1.311.381.162.090.140.881.902.64
Diluted EPS YoY−2.2%+5.3%−15.9%+80.2%−93.3%+528.6%+115.9%+38.9%
net %3.9%4.0%3.5%6.0%0.4%2.7%5.8%7.4%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable192.2 m108.1 m180.0 m208.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
342.0 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
1.2 bn USD
Total assets
2.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.27x
ROE
12.8%
ROA
6.5%
FCF margin
10.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
926.8 m
2024
811.8 m
2025
770.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
863.0 m
2024
983.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
242.3 m
2024
279.3 m
2025
283.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
77.2 m
2024
151.4 m
2025
202.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
2.2 m
2024
1.8 m
2025
2.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
74.7 m
2024
154.5 m
2025
203.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
20.1 m
2024
39.8 m
2025
54.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
53.3 m
2024
111.6 m
2025
144.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.88
2024
1.90
2025
2.64

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
60.2 m
2024
58.6 m
2025
54.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
336.3 m
2024
290.7 m
2025
342.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
775.6 m
2024
800.9 m
2025
582.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
126.5 m
2024
107.2 m
2025
139.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
524.2 m
2024
515.2 m
2025
535.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
180.9 m
2024
158.4 m
2025
151.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
844.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
224.2 m
2024
258.2 m
2025
311.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
116.1 m
2024
78.1 m
2025
102.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
108.1 m ≈
2024
180.0 m ≈
2025
208.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-108.7 m
2024
-97.9 m
2025
-101.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-147.3 m
2024
-270.5 m
2025
-151.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
125.5 m
2024
224.6 m
2025
152.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
33.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
29.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
152.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
38.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
166.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
17.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
15.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
52.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
8.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
40.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
286.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
154.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
131.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
182.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
92 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
769.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
10.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
8.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
5.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
17.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
13.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

15.64 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 769.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
769.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 1739derived 141

Score by group

65% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality4.0%100 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality182.4%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth166.2%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet40.4x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x40 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation11.4x85 (on a fixed band)16%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation17.1%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns13.3%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

CRITEO S.A. (CRTO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.6%; net margin 4.0%; ROE 6.3%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 4.0%
  • FCF conversion: 182.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 166.2%
  • Interest coverage: 40.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 11.4x
  • FCF yield: 17.1%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 13.3%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.2%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
11.4x
vertical median 281.5x
below median (−96.0%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 13.1x
P/S
0.4x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−64.3%)
P/B
0.7x
vertical median 3.9x
below median (−82.9%)
ROE
6.3%
vertical median -7.1%
above median
Net margin
4.0%
vertical median -9.5%
above median
EBIT margin
6.6%
vertical median 0.0%
above median (+44,448.0%)
Revenue YoY
0.6%
vertical median 1.8%
below median (−66.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 4.0x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
OMCOmnicom Group Inc.23.9 bn50.99.7%2.8%+10.1%+22% / +9%
STGWStagwell Inc2.7 bn281.51.3%0.3%+2.4%+105% / +119%
CRTOCriteo S.A.769.7 m11.46.3%4.0%+0.6%−29% / −35%
GRPNGroupon, Inc.703.9 m——-25.3%+1.2%+2% / +53%
TJGCTJGC Group Limited487.9 m—-130.2%-81.8%−6.5%+969% / unavailable
VSMEVS MEDIA Holdings Ltd36.9 m—-317.9%-114.5%−8.8%−95% / −99%
SWAGStran & Company, Inc.24.4 m396.00.2%0.0%+40.6%−35% / −2%
HAOHaoxi Health Technology Limited——-54.1%-17.4%+67.1%−100% / unavailable
WPPWPP plc——-7.1%-1.6%−8.1%+42% / −37%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CRTO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
9.29
Total return -41% · Per year -41%
16.47
Total return 5% · Per year 5%
24.87
Total return 59% · Per year 59%
3 years
8.01
Total return -49% · Per year -20%
16.07
Total return 3% · Per year 1%
26.80
Total return 71% · Per year 20%
5 years
6.91
Total return -56% · Per year -15%
15.69
Total return 0% · Per year 0%
28.87
Total return 85% · Per year 13%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.02
  • Net margin± 2.81
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.44
  • Annual dilution± 0.24

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

In brief

Criteo is a global commerce intelligence platform that connects brands, agencies, retailers and media owners through commerce data and AI-driven advertising. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue fell (11)% to $428.0 million and the company cut its annual guidance, making the durability of its position in digital advertising a relevant question. 123

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has large-scale commerce data, direct integrations with retailers and a stable client base with high retention over recent years 1.
  • Its platform combines predictive AI with access to a very large pool of daily active users, supporting technological differentiation 1.
  • Balance sheet and operating cash flow remain solid, and the company has continued its share repurchase program 3.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and profitability was hit by lower Contribution ex-TAC 23.
  • The company depends on a relatively small number of large clients in certain segments, so losing one could have significant effects 1.
  • Free cash flow was negative in the second quarter of 2026, showing cash generation is sensitive to investment pace 3.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into social, CTV and AI-driven advertising experiences could open new revenue sources 1.
  • Partnerships with conversational AI platforms may create new opportunities for product discovery and monetization 3.
  • If brands diversify spending beyond the largest platforms, independent retail media networks could gain share 1.

Threats

  • Competitive pressure from large platforms with far greater resources could reduce prices and margins 1.
  • Economic slowdown and more cautious advertising budgets could further weigh on demand for the company's services 2.
  • Limits on data collection and changes across the digital ecosystem could reduce targeting efficiency 1.

Risks

  • Client concentrationhigh

    A significant share of revenue comes from a few large clients, and a reduction in scope by one of them has already affected results 13.

  • Lowered guidancehigh

    The company cut its 2026 Contribution ex-TAC guidance and expects a further decline in the third quarter, showing uncertainty about recovery 3.

  • Competition from large platformsmedium

    Competitors with far greater resources could change market dynamics and pressure prices 1.

  • Regulation and privacy changesmedium

    Data protection laws and decisions by large technology companies could limit targeting signals 12.

  • Fraud and system errorslow

    Fraudulent traffic or algorithm errors could impair campaign performance and lead to client losses 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If retail media and newer channels such as CTV and conversational AI grow quickly, the company could recover revenue growth and margins 13.
  • Its commerce data base and high client retention could support a durable niche position in the advertising ecosystem 1.
  • The share repurchase program and available liquidity could provide flexibility if operating cash flows improve 23.

What would break the thesis

  • If the decline seen in the second quarter of 2026 continues, revenue and Adjusted EBITDA could stay below last year's levels 23.
  • Competition from large platforms could limit the company's ability to sustain pricing and market share 1.
  • Negative free cash flow and dependence on a few large clients could narrow financial flexibility 13.

What to watch

  • Delivery against the third quarter 2026 Contribution ex-TAC guidanceQ3 2026
  • Revenue trend in Retail Media after the scope changes with two clientsQ4 2026
  • Completion of the transfer of legal domicile from Luxembourg to the United StatesJanuary 2027
  • Launch of additional countries for ChatGPT advertising and further AI partnerships2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

The business

Criteo was incorporated in France and runs its Commerce Intelligence Platform, which combines large-scale commerce data, media access and predictive AI to deliver measurable advertising results. The company serves approximately 17,000 clients and its average client retention rate stayed at approximately 90% over the last three years 1. Revenue in 2025 was $1,944.9 million, up 1% 1. The company also announced a redomiciliation from France to Luxembourg, completed by 2026, and a planned later transfer to the United States 13.

Much of its revenue still comes from click or impression-based pricing, and it charges retailers a negotiated SSP fee, sometimes a technology fee, while brands pay a negotiated DSP fee 1. Contribution ex-TAC, a non-GAAP measure akin to gross profit, reached $1,174.6 million in 2025 1. Retail Media grew in 2025 while Performance Media was flat 1.

Adjusted EBITDA was $406.7 million in 2025 1, and the company spent $61 million on share repurchases in the first six months of 2026 3. Total financial liquidity at June 30, 2026 was approximately $767 million, including the revolving credit facility 23.

Segments

Retail Media

Retail Media lets retailers monetize their traffic and audiences through advertising and helps brands sell products at the digital point of sale. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue from this segment fell (21)%, driven by scope changes with two clients, even as the broader retail partner base grew strongly 3. New partners include Loblaw Advance and Monoprix 3.

Performance Media

Performance Media covers targeting, media acquisition and AdTech services, with managed and self-service offerings such as Commerce Growth and GO 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue fell (10)%, reflecting weak Commerce Growth partly offset by better AdTech Services trends 3. Expansion into social and CTV is a stated strategic priority 1.

Commerce data platform

Criteo relies on commerce datasets covering over 5 billion products across 3,700 categories, fed by client and partner data 1. The company argues this access differentiates it and that its algorithms improve as data volume grows 1.

Market context

The company estimates its serviceable market for retail media, excluding Amazon and China, could reach about $42 billion in advertising spend in 2026 and $50 billion in 2027, a compound annual growth rate of about 20% 1. The total addressable market including Amazon and China is projected at about $204 billion by 2027 1. Retail media remains one of the fastest growing segments, and budgets are moving away from search and social toward more transparent channels 1.

However, macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and high interest rates could reduce advertising budgets, and in 2026 the company saw an impact on budgets in the Middle East and its Travel vertical 2. Global ecommerce penetration continues to expand, creating more advertising inventory 1.

Trends

  • Ecommerce growthtailwind

    Rising online retail penetration creates more advertising inventory in commerce environments and shifts budgets toward measurable channels 1.

  • Budgets shifting to retail mediatailwind

    Brands are moving budgets from shopper and trade marketing toward retail media because of its proximity to the point of sale and closed-loop measurement 1.

  • CTV and social advertisingtailwind

    CTV is described as the second fastest growing advertising channel, and the company is extending its platform into social and CTV 1.

  • Privacy rules and lost signalsheadwind

    Privacy regulation and decisions by large technology companies that limit tracking signals could reduce targeting effectiveness 12.

Competitive position

Criteo operates in a highly competitive market where large platforms with closed ecosystems have far greater resources and dominant positions in products such as Amazon Advertising, Google Search, YouTube and Meta 1. Competition could increase pricing pressure and reduce fees and gross margins 1.

A further risk is that large retailers, possibly including current clients, could develop retail media technology in-house, reducing demand for outside solutions 1. Competition for advertising inventory on exchanges could also raise acquisition costs 1.

  • Amazon AdvertisingAMZN

    Advertising arm of a dominant retailer, cited in Criteo's risk factors as a competitor with far greater resources 1.

  • Google (Search and YouTube)GOOGL

    Advertising platform with strong positions in search and video, named among large technology competitors 1.

  • Meta PlatformsMETA

    Social platform with vast advertising inventory, cited among large companies competing for advertising budgets 1.

  • Retailer-owned retail media networks

    Retail media networks built in-house by retailers or marketplaces, which could reduce the need for outside solutions 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 06 Jul 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
  • Current report04 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report31 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Jun 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement08 May 2026
  • Quarterly report06 May 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Criteo S.A. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Criteo S.A. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Criteo S.A. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.