olivLaw · US equity research
Groupon, Inc. GRPN
Services-Advertising Agencies · SIC 7311 · Vertical: Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311)
Groupon is a global two-sided marketplace linking consumers with local merchants for experiences, services and goods, increasingly through mobile devices. In 2026 the company is running an AI-native transformation called Project Foundry, with a restructuring plan that targets up to 400 position reductions and estimated annual savings that could support margins if execution keeps pace with demand. Revenue for fiscal 2025 was 498.4 million USD, and 2026 guidance points to revenue between 513 and 523 million USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) stock was 17.31 USD (+11.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 703.9 m USD, beta 1.43, 52-week range 9.64–28.58 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 124.7 m USD (−0.8% YoY), net income of -1.8 m USD (−108.7% YoY), diluted EPS -0.04 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 14.83 – 19.15
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.58 · band width 25.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 18.44 / 17.63
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.82 / -0.89
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.2% | −1.1% | −11.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −36.6% | −0.5% | −36.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.2% | +4.4% | +4.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.7% | +12.3% | −14.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −9.2% | +13.5% | −22.7 pp | +0.4% |
| 3 years | +19.5% | +76.4% | −56.9 pp | −19.4% |
| 5 years | −32.3% | +63.7% | −95.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 114.5 m | 130.4 m | 117.2 m | 125.7 m | 122.8 m | 132.7 m | 117.2 m | 124.7 m |
| Cost of revenue | 11.6 m | 12.2 m | 10.9 m | 11.3 m | 11.0 m | 12.7 m | 11.2 m | 11.3 m |
| Gross profit | 102.9 m | 118.2 m | 106.3 m | 114.4 m | 111.8 m | 120.0 m | 106.0 m | 113.4 m |
| SG&A | 71.3 m | 72.5 m | 69.8 m | 70.7 m | 68.3 m | 65.0 m | 73.0 m | 67.7 m |
| Operating income | -5.6 m | 2.7 m | 1.9 m | 13.1 m | 2.2 m | 6.5 m | -3.3 m | -717.0 k |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 6.5 m ≈ | 6.0 m | 5.2 m | 4.1 m ≈ | 3.9 m ≈ | 3.9 m | 3.8 m | 3.8 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 2.1 m | 2.5 m | 4.0 m | 3.9 m | 3.4 m | 3.0 m | 4.0 m | 3.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | 16.8 m | -41.8 m | 9.5 m | 31.5 m | -96.5 m | 10.1 m | -7.7 m | -4.0 m |
| Income tax | 2.3 m | 8.3 m | 1.4 m | 10.9 m | 21.2 m | 2.0 m | 4.9 m | -2.5 m |
| Net income | 13.9 m | -50.6 m | 7.2 m | 20.3 m | -118.4 m | 7.3 m | -12.9 m | -1.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.33 | -1.27 ≈ | 0.17 | 0.46 | -2.92 | 0.18 ≈ | -0.32 | -0.04 |
| Operating cash flow | -16.3 m ≈ | 67.0 m | -22.0 k | 28.4 m ≈ | -20.5 m ≈ | 56.6 m | -10.0 m | 18.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 3.4 m ≈ | 3.7 m | 3.7 m | 3.2 m ≈ | 4.1 m ≈ | 3.6 m | 3.6 m | 3.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 ≈ | — | — | 21.3 m | 10.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 967.1 m | 599.1 m | 514.9 m | 492.6 m | 498.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | −7.3% | −15.8% | −36.1% | −31.7% | −38.1% | −14.1% | −4.3% | +1.2% |
| Net income | -11.1 m | -22.4 m | -287.9 m | 118.7 m | -237.6 m | -55.4 m | -59.0 m | -83.5 m |
| Net income YoY | −178.9% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −300.2% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.79 | -10.07 | 3.68 | -7.88 | -1.77 | -1.51 | -2.08 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −200.0% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −314.1% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -0.4% | -1.0% | -20.3% | 12.3% | -39.7% | -10.8% | -12.0% | -16.8% |
| Free cash flow | 121.2 m | 4.0 m | -112.3 m | -173.6 m | -172.2 m | -97.3 m | 40.6 m | 49.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 296.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 342.8 m USD
- Net debt
- 46.8 m USD
- Equity
- -42.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 670.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.98x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -13.0%
- FCF margin
- 10.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 967.1 m | 599.1 m | 514.9 m | 492.6 m | 498.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 739.6 m | 230.0 m | 76.3 m | 64.2 m | 48.3 m | 45.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 677.3 m | 737.1 m | 522.8 m | 450.7 m | 444.3 m | 452.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 603.2 m | 511.1 m | 481.4 m | 350.4 m | 295.4 m | 273.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -277.1 m | -4.7 m | -167.8 m | -18.3 m | 8.8 m | 23.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 77.8 m | 63.9 m | 54.2 m | 43.4 m | 27.9 m | 17.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -199.3 m ≈ | 59.3 m ≈ | -113.6 m ≈ | 25.1 m ≈ | 36.7 m ≈ | 40.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 33.2 m | 17.2 m | 14.4 m | 15.7 m | 8.5 m | 14.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -294.1 m | 88.0 m | -192.0 m | -43.4 m | -30.4 m | -45.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -7.5 m | -32.3 m | 42.4 m | 9.5 m | 26.1 m | 35.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -287.9 m | 118.7 m | -237.6 m | -55.4 m | -59.0 m | -83.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -10.07 | 3.68 | -7.88 | -1.77 | -1.51 | -2.08 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 28.6 m | 33.5 m | 30.2 m | 31.2 m | 39.2 m | 40.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 850.6 m | 498.7 m | 281.3 m | 141.6 m | 228.8 m | 296.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 43.0 m | 36.8 m | 45.0 m | 50.4 m | 34.2 m | 25.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 934.0 m | 588.1 m | 367.4 m | 255.6 m | 315.4 m | 374.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 85.3 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2021verified |
| Goodwill | 214.7 m | 216.4 m | 178.7 m | 178.7 m | 178.7 m | 178.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 30.2 m | 24.3 m | 17.6 m | 11.4 m | 4.7 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 793.1 m | 571.0 m | 612.7 m | 670.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 33.0 m | 22.2 m | 59.6 m | 15.0 m | 11.3 m | 8.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 200.0 m | 100.0 m | 75.0 m | 42.8 m | 0 | 33.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | — | 246.0 m | 309.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 939.0 m | 631.0 m | 531.4 m | 369.2 m | 305.4 m | 383.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.3 bn | 947.6 m | 784.3 m | 611.3 m | 571.6 m | 712.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 107.7 m | 210.3 m | 8.9 m | -40.3 m | 41.1 m | -42.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -63.6 m | -124.0 m | -136.0 m | -78.0 m | 55.9 m | 64.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 48.7 m | 49.6 m | 36.2 m | 19.3 m | 15.3 m | 14.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -112.3 m ≈ | -173.6 m ≈ | -172.2 m ≈ | -97.3 m ≈ | 40.6 m ≈ | 49.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -20.1 m | -45.8 m | -38.8 m | -1.4 m | -6.8 m | 6.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 176.8 m | -183.9 m | -34.4 m | -35.7 m | 47.8 m | -7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2022verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 703.9 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
54% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.83 – 19.58 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)10.83 – 19.58 (Mid 14.02)WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 41.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 2.9%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -25.3% | 25 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -5.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 39.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.3% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 498.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.2%; net margin -25.3%; net debt/EBITDA 4.0x.
The estimated value range is 10.83–19.58 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 14.02 USD, the price of 17.31 USD leaves a potential of -19.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -23.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -25.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -5.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.0x
- Interest coverage: 0.3x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 39.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMCOmnicom Group Inc. | 23.9 bn | 50.9 | 9.7% | 2.8% | +10.1% | +22% / +9% |
| STGWStagwell Inc | 2.7 bn | 281.5 | 1.3% | 0.3% | +2.4% | +105% / +119% |
| CRTOCriteo S.A. | 769.7 m | 11.4 | 6.3% | 4.0% | +0.6% | −21% / −37% |
| GRPNGroupon, Inc. | 703.9 m | — | — | -25.3% | +1.2% | −9% / +19% |
| TJGCTJGC Group Limited | 487.9 m | — | -130.2% | -81.8% | −6.5% | +969% / unavailable |
| VSMEVS MEDIA Holdings Ltd | 36.9 m | — | -317.9% | -114.5% | −8.8% | −95% / −99% |
| SWAGStran & Company, Inc. | 24.4 m | 396.0 | 0.2% | 0.0% | +40.6% | −35% / −2% |
| WPPWPP plc | — | — | -7.1% | -1.6% | −8.1% | +42% / −37% |
| HAOHaoxi Health Technology Limited | — | — | -54.1% | -17.4% | +67.1% | −100% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GRPN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Groupon is a global two-sided marketplace linking consumers with local merchants for experiences, services and goods, increasingly through mobile devices. In 2026 the company is running an AI-native transformation called Project Foundry, with a restructuring plan that targets up to 400 position reductions and estimated annual savings that could support margins if execution keeps pace with demand. Revenue for fiscal 2025 was 498.4 million USD, and 2026 guidance points to revenue between 513 and 523 million USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- A recognized brand and a large base of active customers are important assets for attracting merchants, and the company has shown growth in the North America Local category 1.
- The net commission model and a high share of mobile transactions give a scalable revenue structure if costs are kept under control 1.
- Project Foundry and the restructuring are designed to deliver savings and faster execution, and management reports early progress 3.
Weaknesses
- Revenue has grown more slowly than transaction volume because of promotional discounts, and marketing spend has grown faster than revenue 1.
- The Goods category was reduced and some business lines declined in volume, showing dependence on the Local category 1.
- In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported a loss from continuing operations, and units sold declined 3.
Opportunities
- If AI agents become an important discovery channel, the platform could gain traffic from assisted search and automated transactions 1.
- Personalization and merchant tools could raise purchase frequency and the volume of relevant offers 2.
- Recovery in organic and managed channels could support faster growth in the second half of 2026, according to management 3.
Threats
- Macroeconomic pressure and trade policy could reduce consumer spending and merchants' ability to offer deals 1.
- Competitors with greater scale and resources could attract customers and merchants if Groupon does not sustain its advantage 1.
- Rules on personal data and vouchers could raise compliance costs or restrict the sales model 1.
Risks
- Restructuring executionhigh
The restructuring could disrupt operations, lose institutional knowledge and exceed estimated costs. The expected savings might not be realized on the announced timeline 12.
- Slower revenue growthhigh
Revenue has grown more slowly than transaction volume, and in the second quarter of 2026 it declined slightly. If this persists, guidance could be hard to reach 13.
- High marketing costsmedium
Marketing expense grew faster than revenue in North America, and the return on these investments is not assured 1.
- International exposuremedium
International operations depend on regional political stability and strict labor rules, which can slow restructuring and weigh on profitability 1.
- Cybersecurity and datamedium
Breaches of information systems or data privacy rules could lead to fines, customer loss and reputational damage 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Project Foundry reduces costs and speeds execution, the company could turn the restructuring into a durable operating advantage 23.
- Organic growth and the return of managed channels, reported for the second quarter of 2026, could support faster revenue growth in the second half of the year 3.
- A large base of active customers and a recognized brand could let the company benefit from AI-agent discovery 12.
What would break the thesis
- The loss from continuing operations in the second quarter of 2026 and the decline in units sold suggest the transformation has not yet produced solid financial results 3.
- If macroeconomic pressure and tariffs reduce consumer spending, guidance for 2026 could be hard to reach 13.
- Competitors with greater resources and more aggressive use of AI could reduce the company's market share if the transformation is delayed 1.
What to watch
- Realization of restructuring savings and the pace of position reductionsQ3 2026
- North America Local revenue growth compared with gross billings growthQ3 2026
- Whether revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 are met2026
- Progress of Project Foundry and any further cost-reduction actionsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Groupon describes its business as a global two-sided marketplace connecting consumers with merchants. Customers access the platform through mobile applications and localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. The company reports two segments, North America and International, and three categories: Local, Goods and Travel. Revenue comes from commissions on goods and services sold on behalf of third-party merchants, plus commissions on digital coupons used at retailers. In 2025, about 84% of global transactions were completed on mobile devices 1.
Segments
North America
The North America segment generated 77.4% of consolidated revenue in 2025 1. Local gross billings rose 14.2%, while Local revenue grew 4.5%, with growth held back by promotional discounts and higher redemption rates 1. The Goods category was deliberately scaled back, and Travel remained smaller.
International
The International segment covers European and other markets served through localized sites. In the second quarter of 2026, International Local revenue rose 8%, or 9% excluding Giftcloud, helped by a new consumer platform and expanded seasonal supply in major cities 3. The segment remains exposed to regional political instability and to labor rules that can slow restructuring 1.
Market context
Groupon operates in the global market for local experiences and digital local commerce, where it competes with generalist platforms and with advertising providers that sell promotion to local merchants 1. The market is shifting toward mobile distribution and AI-assisted search, which could reshape how customers discover offers. Gross billings were 1,665.8 million USD in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 they reached 796.3 million USD, roughly flat year over year 12.
Trends
- AI-driven discoverymixed
Management expects AI agents to become an important discovery and transaction channel, which could favor platforms with well-structured local offers. If this channel grows, Groupon could gain traffic, but the required investment is substantial.
- Mobile consumptiontailwind
The share of transactions on phones remains high, and mobile apps are the main acquisition channel. This supports the model but makes the company dependent on app store algorithms and the cost of traffic.
- Macroeconomic pressureheadwind
Inflation, higher labor costs, tariffs and labor shortages could reduce consumer discretionary spending and merchants' ability to offer deals. The effect on demand could be negative if these pressures persist.
- Data and online commerce regulationheadwind
Privacy rules, taxes and rules on gift-card-like vouchers could expand. Compliance costs could rise, and some rules could restrict how vouchers are sold.
Competitive position
Groupon competes with other marketplaces and with companies focused on specific local experience verticals. In the Goods and Travel categories, competitors have greater scale and larger customer bases. Competitors using AI for marketing and dynamic pricing could acquire customers more cheaply 1.
- Generalist local commerce platforms
Marketplaces competing for the same customers and merchants, some with larger customer bases and greater marketing resources 1.
- Travel and goods platforms
Companies with greater scale in the Goods and Travel categories that can offer competing prices and experiences 1.
- Advertising providers for local merchants
Platforms selling promotion services to businesses, which would let merchants attract customers without Groupon 1.
- AI-driven dynamic pricing companies
Competitors using machine learning to respond faster to shifts in consumer behavior 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report17 Jun 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 May 2026Exit or disposal costs · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Proxy statement28 Apr 2026
- Current report10 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report10 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Groupon, Inc. · 10 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Groupon, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Groupon, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.