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olivLaw · US equity research

Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ

Wholesale-Groceries & Related Products · SIC 5140 · Vertical: Wholesale — nondurable goods (SIC 514x)

340.69USD+5.45% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company in the world, with a mostly franchised model in which revenue comes mainly from royalties and from its supply chain. Same store sales growth in the U.S. has slowed sharply in 2026, while revenue and operating income continue to rise, supported by a global network of more than 22,700 locations.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) stock was 340.69 USD (+5.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.2 bn USD, P/E 19.3 on diluted EPS of 17.63 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.19%, beta 0.46, 52-week range 283.03–438.42 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+4.3% YoY), net income of 135.8 m USD (+3.6% YoY), diluted EPS 4.07 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
11.2 bn USD
shares as of 06 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.3
Diluted EPS TTM 17.63 · TTM to 14 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.18%
TTM to 14 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.19%
DPS 12m 7.46
Beta (2y)
0.46
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
283.03438.42

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
70.5
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
293.28 – 331.06
above the upper band · %B 1.25 · band width 12.1%
SMA 50 / 200
313.30 / 341.57
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
4.42 / 1.34
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.6%−1.1%+15.7 pp—
3 months−7.1%−0.5%−6.6 pp—
6 months+4.9%+4.4%+0.5 pp—
Year to date−18.3%+12.3%−30.6 pp—
1 year−16.3%+13.5%−29.8 pp+12.9%
3 years−5.9%+76.4%−82.3 pp+37.5%
5 years−31.3%+63.7%−95.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−35.4%
17 Dec 2025 → 23 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−49.8%
31 Dec 2021 → 23 Jun 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−7.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 14 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.2 bn USD
+4.3% YoY
Net income
135.8 m USD
+3.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
4.07
+6.8% YoY
net / operating
11.4% / 19.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.1 bn1.4 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.5 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn
Cost of revenue656.4 m878.1 m668.9 m684.2 m687.2 m926.2 m686.1 m716.2 m
Gross profit423.7 m565.9 m443.1 m461.0 m459.9 m609.5 m464.5 m478.2 m
Operating income198.8 m273.7 m210.1 m225.0 m223.2 m295.7 m230.4 m232.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation20.8 m26.8 m20.4 m20.4 m20.4 m27.7 m20.4 m20.3 m ≈
Interest expense44.7 m60.6 m45.6 m44.6 m45.0 m60.7 m46.2 m46.1 m
Pre-tax income184.6 m221.0 m192.5 m168.3 m179.2 m230.4 m180.6 m175.2 m
Income tax37.7 m51.5 m42.8 m37.2 m39.9 m48.8 m40.8 m39.5 m
Net income146.9 m169.4 m149.7 m131.1 m139.3 m181.6 m139.8 m135.8 m
Diluted EPS4.194.89 ≈4.333.814.085.35 ≈4.134.07
Operating cash flow——179.1 m187.8 m ≈——162.0 m190.6 m ≈
Capex——14.7 m20.5 m ≈——15.0 m24.0 m ≈
Dividends paid——617.0 k59.6 m ≈——1.5 m66.8 m ≈
Share repurchases——50.0 m153.0 m ≈——75.1 m159.5 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 4 percentile of its own 24-quarter history (min 18.4, median 27.2, max 37.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20172018201920212022202320242025
Revenue2.8 bn3.4 bn3.6 bn4.1 bn4.5 bn4.5 bn4.7 bn4.9 bn
Revenue YoY+25.8%+23.1%+5.4%unavailable+10.2%−1.3%+5.1%+5.0%
Net income277.9 m362.0 m400.7 m491.3 m452.3 m519.1 m584.2 m601.7 m
Net income YoY+44.1%+30.3%+10.7%unavailable−7.9%+14.8%+12.5%+3.0%
Diluted EPS5.838.359.5612.3912.5314.6616.6917.57
Diluted EPS YoY+68.0%+43.2%+14.5%unavailable+1.1%+17.0%+13.8%+5.3%
net %10.0%10.5%11.1%11.9%10.0%11.6%12.4%12.2%
Free cash flow251.3 m274.3 m411.4 m504.0 m388.1 m485.5 m512.0 m671.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025

Cash
125.7 m USD
Financial debt
14.7 m USD
Net debt
-111.0 m USD
Equity
-3.9 bn USD
Total assets
1.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.65x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
34.8%
FCF margin
13.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.5 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
819.5 m
2024
879.0 m
2025
954.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
80.6 m
2024
87.7 m
2025
88.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
900.2 m ≈
2024
966.7 m ≈
2025
1.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
196.5 m
2024
195.9 m
2025
196.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
652.4 m
2024
722.2 m
2025
770.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
133.3 m
2024
138.0 m
2025
168.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
519.1 m
2024
584.2 m
2025
601.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
14.66
2024
16.69
2025
17.57

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
35.4 m
2024
35.0 m
2025
34.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
4.84
2024
6.04
2025
6.96

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
114.1 m
2024
186.1 m
2025
125.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
282.8 m
2024
309.1 m
2025
316.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
83.0 m
2024
70.9 m
2025
79.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
817.3 m
2024
905.3 m
2025
894.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
304.4 m
2024
301.2 m
2025
324.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
11.7 m
2024
11.6 m
2025
10.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
106.3 m
2024
85.9 m
2025
135.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
56.4 m
2024
100.0 k
2025
100.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
14.7 m
2025
14.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
547.4 m
2024
1.6 bn
2025
541.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
5.7 bn
2024
5.7 bn
2025
5.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-4.1 bn †
2024
-4.0 bn †
2025
-3.9 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
590.9 m
2024
624.9 m
2025
792.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
105.4 m
2024
112.9 m
2025
120.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
485.5 m ≈
2024
512.0 m ≈
2025
671.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-106.9 m
2024
-31.2 m
2025
-70.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-476.4 m
2024
-532.2 m
2025
-752.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
169.8 m
2024
209.9 m
2025
236.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
269.0 m
2024
329.6 m
2025
357.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
31.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
40.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
21.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
19.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Net margin
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
FCF margin
13.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
34.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (EPS)
42.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
37.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
5.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 06 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
777.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
124.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
653.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
109.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
72.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
20 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
10 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
15 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
15 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
11.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
12.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
18.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
12.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
P/FCF
17.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
FCF yield
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 63 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

340.69 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 11.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
11.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 06 Sept 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 14 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 06 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 06 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Oct 2026
verified 2228derived 97

Score by group

  • Balance sheet36
  • Growth52
  • Quality94
  • Returns88
  • Valuation66

Estimated value range

Low
272.28
USD per share
Mid
312.23
USD per share
High
449.95
USD per share
Price: 340.69 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -8.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -9.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 91.46 – 702.53 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)297.00 – 485.36 (Mid 368.94)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 807.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -0.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA247.55 – 414.54 (Mid 255.52)
    5 companies used · median multiple 8.9x · quartiles 8.6x – 13.8x
    CHEF, DIT, SYY, UNFI, USFD
  • Peers: P/E472.14 – 702.53 (Mid 596.50)
    7 companies used · median multiple 33.8x · quartiles 26.8x – 39.8x
    CHEF, DIT, PFGC, RAVE, SYY, UNFI, USFD
  • Dividend discount (DDM)91.46 – 123.00 (Mid 104.91)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale — nondurable goods (SIC 514x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 63/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality11.9%89 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality109.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.9%24 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth11.9%80 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.0x40 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet5.0x53 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.5x0 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation19.3x86 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation11.5x40 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation5.8%73 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.7%81 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns37.5%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet36/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth52/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality94/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns88/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-06.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.0%; net margin 11.9%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.

The estimated value range is 272.28–449.95 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 312.23 USD, the price of 340.69 USD leaves a potential of -8.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -9.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 11.9%
  • FCF conversion: 109.5%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 11.9%
  • P/E (TTM): 19.3x
  • FCF yield: 5.8%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 37.5%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.9%
  • Current ratio: 0.5x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale — nondurable goods (SIC 514x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
19.3x
vertical median 33.8x
below median (−42.9%)
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
vertical median 8.9x
above median (+29.5%)
P/S
2.2x
vertical median 0.4x
above median (+401.1%)
P/B
—
vertical median 3.4x
ROE
—
vertical median 8.2%
Net margin
11.9%
vertical median 0.6%
above median (+1,964.9%)
EBIT margin
19.5%
vertical median 1.4%
above median (+1,335.7%)
Revenue YoY
5.0%
vertical median 4.1%
above median (+21.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.0x
vertical median 0.2x
above median (+464.9%)
Dividend yield
2.2%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SYYSysco Corporation37.9 bn20.559.1%2.1%+3.9%+1% / +7%
USFDUs Foods Holding Corp.23.8 bn33.816.4%1.8%+4.1%+40% / +151%
PFGCPerformance Food Group Company17.3 bn43.78.2%0.6%+7.2%+13% / +68%
DPZDomino’s Pizza, Inc.11.2 bn19.3—11.9%+5.0%−16% / −6%
CHEFChefs’ Warehouse, Inc.4.6 bn46.516.2%2.3%+9.4%+74% / +297%
UNFIUnited Natural Foods, Inc.2.9 bn36.05.3%0.3%−2.0%+29% / +232%
HFFGHf Foods Group Inc.80.3 m—-15.5%-2.8%+2.2%−41% / −69%
DITAmcon Distributing Co59.4 m33.11.6%0.1%+3.9%−19% / −48%
RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc.31.1 m11.018.3%22.3%+7.2%−31% / −4%
MWYNMarwynn Holdings, Inc.27.7 m—-54.7%-24.7%+427.5%+59% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for DPZ from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
203.74
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
360.48
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
543.38
Total return 62% · Per year 62%
3 years
191.33
Total return -39% · Per year -15%
381.52
Total return 19% · Per year 6%
632.34
Total return 95% · Per year 25%
5 years
179.68
Total return -39% · Per year -9%
403.78
Total return 31% · Per year 6%
735.87
Total return 132% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 95.38
  • Net margin± 66.77
  • Annual revenue growth± 55.67
  • Annual dilution± 5.61

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company in the world, with a mostly franchised model in which revenue comes mainly from royalties and from its supply chain. Same store sales growth in the U.S. has slowed sharply in 2026, while revenue and operating income continue to rise, supported by a global network of more than 22,700 locations 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A highly recognized global brand and an experienced franchise network that keeps the model asset-light 1.
  • Market leadership in U.S. delivery and carryout, with a share that grew from the prior year 1.

Weaknesses

  • U.S. same store sales slowed sharply in 2026, suggesting reliance on network expansion for growth 3.
  • Cheese and labor costs are significant and difficult to fully pass on to customers 1.
  • Free cash flow declined in 2026, partly due to advertising payments and working capital changes 3.

Opportunities

  • International growth, with hundreds of net new stores outside the U.S., could support royalty revenue 3.
  • Online ordering platforms and menu expansion could create new consumption occasions 1.
  • Productivity gains in the supply chain could improve margins if the current trend continues 3.

Threats

  • Intense competition from chains, aggregators and supermarkets could erode market share 1.
  • Rising minimum wages and food costs could reduce franchisee profitability 1.
  • Currency volatility affects international revenue, and a failure abroad could erode the value of investments 1.

Risks

  • Intense competitionmedium

    Pizza chains, aggregators and grocery and meal providers could pressure prices and market share if the company cannot maintain its position 1.

  • Food and labor costshigh

    Cheese and wages are the largest costs, and their increase could reduce margins for franchisees and company stores 1.

  • Network expansion shortfallmedium

    If new store openings slow or closures rise, royalty and supply chain revenues could be affected 1.

  • Single-supplier dependencemedium

    U.S. cheese and most meat toppings come from single suppliers, which could expose the company to disruption or less favorable terms 1.

  • China investment risklow

    The equity stake in DPC Dash, the China master franchisee, is described as inherently risky, and its failure could lead to loss of invested value 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Revenue and operating income continued to grow in 2026, supported by the global network and a supply chain with rising margins, showing that the model can generate steady cash 3.
  • Market leadership in the U.S. with a rising share and a strong global brand could support further expansion 1.
  • The asset-light franchise model and experienced franchisees may reduce the capital needed for growth 1.

What would break the thesis

  • U.S. same store sales rose very little in the third quarter of 2026, which could signal weakening demand in existing stores 3.
  • Free cash flow declined in 2026, and repurchases of more than 300 million USD could limit financial flexibility if results weaken 3.
  • Cost and competitive pressures could reduce franchisee margins and slow new store openings 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in U.S. same store salesQ4 2026
  • Net new store openings outside the U.S.2027
  • Development of supply chain gross marginnext 10-K
  • Free cash flow and the pace of share repurchasesQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Domino's is primarily a franchisor: about 99% of its global stores are operated by independent franchisees, and the company earns percent-of-sales royalties, fees and revenue from selling food and other products to franchisees through its supply chain, mainly in the U.S. and Canada 1. The model is described as asset-light, with limited capital invested by the company 1. Growth comes from retail sales at its stores, driven by same store sales growth and net store openings 1.

The company's Hungry for MORE strategy aims to generate more sales, more stores and more profits, supported by what it calls the best pizza in the industry, operational excellence, renowned value and best-in-class franchisees 1. In the third quarter of 2026, total revenues rose 3.4% year over year and income from operations rose 8.3% 3. The results release also announced a new chief executive 3.

Capital allocation includes quarterly dividends and share repurchases: in the three fiscal quarters of 2026 the company repurchased shares for 304.9 million USD, and 1.15 billion USD of repurchase authorization remained at September 6, 2026 3. Free cash flow declined over the same period, partly due to the timing of advertising payments and changes in operating assets and liabilities 3.

Segments

U.S. stores

In fiscal 2025 this segment contributed 1.61 billion USD, or 32.6% of revenues, and consists mainly of franchised stores, with 6,924 franchised and 262 Company-owned stores at December 28, 2025 1. U.S. same store sales rose 0.3% in the third quarter of 2026 3.

International franchise

In fiscal 2025 it brought in 338.7 million USD, or 6.9% of revenues, from royalties paid by master franchisees across more than 90 markets 1. It has no cost of sales component, so most of its royalty revenue flows to profit 1.

Market context

The U.S. QSR pizza category grew from 42.8 billion USD to 43.4 billion USD between 2024 and 2025, and Domino's holds about 23.3% of it, leading in both delivery and carryout 1. The market is fragmented, with the four largest players accounting for about 61% of U.S. pizza delivery 1. Internationally, demand for pizza delivery and carryout is described as large and growing 1.

Global retail sales growth excluding foreign currency impact was 3.2% in the third quarter of 2026, while international same store sales rose 0.2% 3. Network expansion remains the main growth driver, with 175 net new stores added in the third quarter 3.

Trends

  • Network expansiontailwind

    The company added 175 net stores in the third quarter of 2026 and now operates more than 22,700 locations, supporting royalty and supply chain revenue 3. Network growth is a central pillar of the Hungry for MORE strategy 1.

  • Food and labor cost pressureheadwind

    Cheese, the largest food cost, along with rising minimum wages, could reduce franchisee and company store margins if these costs cannot be passed on to customers 1. The company notes that most of these cost factors are beyond its control 1.

  • Online ordering through aggregatorsmixed

    Partnerships with delivery platforms such as Uber and DoorDash extend ordering channels, but the company acknowledges that profitability on these platforms could be lower than on its own channels 1. The net effect depends on how these costs are managed 1.

Competitive position

In the U.S. the main competitors are Pizza Hut, Papa John's and Little Caesars Pizza, alongside regional, independent and local establishments 1. Competition centers on quality, location, service, technology, convenience and price, and order aggregators add pressure on customers and drivers 1. Abroad, Pizza Hut and Papa John's are the main rivals, along with national, regional and local pizzerias 1.

The company identifies intensifying competition from delivery apps, supermarkets and meal kit providers as a key risk 1. If its competitive position weakens, it could face downward pressure on prices and loss of market share 1.

  • Pizza Hut

    Main national chain competitor in the U.S. and abroad, named in the annual report 1.

  • Papa John's

    National pizza chain competing directly with Domino's in the U.S. and internationally 1.

  • Little Caesars Pizza

    U.S. national competitor named in the delivery and carryout pizza segments 1.

  • Uber and DoorDash

    Order aggregation platforms that are both distribution partners and competitors for customers and drivers 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 13 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / Domino's Pizza, Inc. · 23 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-06 · SEC / Domino's Pizza, Inc. · 13 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Domino's Pizza, Inc. · 13 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.