olivLaw · US equity research
US Foods Holding Corp. USFD
Wholesale-Groceries & Related Products · SIC 5140 · Vertical: Wholesale — nondurable goods (SIC 514x)
US Foods Holding Corp. is one of the largest foodservice distributors in the United States, supplying about 250,000 customer locations from independent restaurants to healthcare and hospitality operators. Amid food inflation and cost pressure, it reported in the first half of fiscal 2026 higher case volume and record adjusted EBITDA, with net sales of 10.5 billion USD in the second quarter.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock was 109.93 USD (+8.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 23.8 bn USD, P/E 33.8 on diluted EPS of 3.25 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.61, 52-week range 70.05–110.94 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 10.5 bn USD (+4.5% YoY), net income of 275.0 m USD (+22.8% YoY), diluted EPS 1.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 95.59 – 107.60
- above the upper band · %B 1.19 · band width 11.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 99.28 / 94.83
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.99 / 1.41
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +16.2% | −1.1% | +17.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.4% | −0.5% | +9.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.4% | +4.4% | +15.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +46.0% | +12.3% | +33.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +49.8% | +13.5% | +36.2 pp | +1.0% |
| 3 years | +167.3% | +76.4% | +90.9 pp | +1.3% |
| 5 years | +185.1% | +63.7% | +121.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 27 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.7 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.4 bn | 10.1 bn | 10.2 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 8.1 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.6 bn |
| Gross profit | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn |
| SG&A | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Operating income | 279.0 m | 302.0 m | 224.0 m | 372.0 m | 282.0 m | 321.0 m | 216.0 m | 443.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 114.0 m ≈ | 111.0 m | 112.0 m | 115.0 m ≈ | 118.0 m ≈ | 117.0 m | 119.0 m | 118.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 75.0 m | 80.0 m | 77.0 m | 74.0 m | 76.0 m | 78.0 m | 75.0 m | 77.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 201.0 m | 87.0 m | 148.0 m | 300.0 m | 206.0 m | 244.0 m | 142.0 m | 369.0 m |
| Income tax | 53.0 m | 21.0 m | 33.0 m | 76.0 m | 53.0 m | 60.0 m | 26.0 m | 94.0 m |
| Net income | 148.0 m | 66.0 m | 115.0 m | 224.0 m | 153.0 m | 184.0 m | 116.0 m | 275.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.61 | 0.28 ≈ | 0.49 | 0.96 | 0.67 | 0.82 ≈ | 0.52 | 1.24 |
| Operating cash flow | 270.0 m ≈ | 283.0 m | 391.0 m | 334.0 m ≈ | 351.0 m ≈ | 293.0 m | 294.0 m | 431.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 80.0 m ≈ | 105.0 m | 84.0 m | 77.0 m ≈ | 115.0 m ≈ | 134.0 m | 98.0 m | 76.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 574.0 m ≈ | 320.0 m | 23.0 m | 247.0 m ≈ | 332.0 m ≈ | 324.0 m | 75.0 m | 370.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 93 percentile of its own 30-quarter history (min 12.0, median 25.5, max 216.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | ⚠ 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24.1 bn | 24.2 bn | 25.9 bn | 22.9 bn | 34.1 bn | 35.6 bn | 37.9 bn | 39.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.4% | +0.1% | +7.3% | unavailable | — | +4.5% | +6.4% | +4.1% |
| Net income | 444.0 m | 407.0 m | 385.0 m | -226.0 m | 265.0 m | 506.0 m | 494.0 m | 676.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +111.4% | −8.3% | −5.4% | unavailable | — | +90.9% | −2.4% | +36.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.97 | 1.87 | 1.75 | -1.15 | 1.01 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.94 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +91.3% | −5.1% | −6.4% | unavailable | — | +100.0% | 0.0% | +45.5% |
| net % | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | -1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Free cash flow | 528.0 m | 374.0 m | 502.0 m | 224.0 m | 500.0 m | 831.0 m | 833.0 m | 959.0 m |
The series breaks before 2022: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 41.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 137.0 m USD
- Net debt
- 96.0 m USD
- Equity
- 4.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 13.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.03x
- Current ratio
- 1.16x
- ROE
- 15.3%
- ROA
- 4.9%
- FCF margin
- 2.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.9 bn | 22.9 bn | 34.1 bn | 35.6 bn | 37.9 bn | 39.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 21.4 bn | 19.2 bn | 28.6 bn | 29.4 bn | 31.3 bn | 32.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 699.0 m | -77.0 m | 594.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 362.0 m | 422.0 m | 372.0 m | 395.0 m | 438.0 m | 462.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.1 bn ≈ | 345.0 m ≈ | 966.0 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 184.0 m | 238.0 m | 255.0 m | 324.0 m | 315.0 m | 305.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 511.0 m | -294.0 m | 361.0 m | 678.0 m | 644.0 m | 898.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 126.0 m | -68.0 m | 96.0 m | 172.0 m | 150.0 m | 222.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 385.0 m | -226.0 m | 265.0 m | 506.0 m | 494.0 m | 676.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.75 | -1.15 | 1.01 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.94 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 220.0 m | 220.0 m | 226.0 m | 250.0 m | 244.0 m | 230.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 90.0 m | 828.0 m | 211.0 m | 269.0 m | 59.0 m | 41.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.7 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 967.0 m | 892.0 m | 785.0 m | 803.0 m | 836.0 m | 781.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.3 bn | 12.4 bn | 12.8 bn | 13.2 bn | 13.4 bn | 13.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 142.0 m | 131.0 m | 116.0 m | 110.0 m | 109.0 m | 137.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.6 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.7 bn † | 3.5 bn † | 4.0 bn † | 4.7 bn † | 4.5 bn † | 4.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 760.0 m | 413.0 m | 765.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 258.0 m | 189.0 m | 265.0 m | 309.0 m | 341.0 m | 410.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 502.0 m ≈ | 224.0 m ≈ | 500.0 m ≈ | 831.0 m ≈ | 833.0 m ≈ | 959.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.0 bn | -1.1 bn | -255.0 m | -495.0 m | -552.0 m | -497.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | -447.0 m | -587.0 m | -831.0 m | -890.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 14.0 m | 294.0 m | 948.0 m | 926.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 23.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation37
- Returns66
- Quality79
- Balance sheet58
- Growth71
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 64.66 – 129.47 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)72.10 – 109.81 (Mid 86.81)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 1.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 15.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA69.77 – 81.24 (Mid 70.75)3 companies used · median multiple 8.9x · quartiles 8.8x – 10.2xDPZ, SYY, UNFI
- Peers: P/E64.66 – 129.47 (Mid 107.49)7 companies used · median multiple 33.1x · quartiles 19.9x – 39.8xCHEF, DIT, DPZ, PFGC, RAVE, SYY, UNFI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 21.1% | 80 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.8% | 56 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 129.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.0% | 42 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 42.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 80 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.1x | 40 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 28 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 33.8x | 43 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.8x | 20 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.0% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.6% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet58/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial66/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation37/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
US FOODS HOLDING CORP. (USFD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 39.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.1%; net margin 1.8%; ROE 16.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.1x.
The estimated value range is 69.77–109.81 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 86.81 USD, the price of 109.93 USD leaves a potential of -21.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -26.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 21.1%
- FCF conversion: 129.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 42.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.1x
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 13.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Wholesale — nondurable goods (SIC 514x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYYSysco Corporation | 37.9 bn | 20.5 | 59.1% | 2.1% | +3.9% | +1% / +7% |
| USFDUs Foods Holding Corp. | 23.8 bn | 33.8 | 16.4% | 1.8% | +4.1% | +50% / +167% |
| PFGCPerformance Food Group Company | 17.3 bn | 43.7 | 8.2% | 0.6% | +7.2% | +13% / +68% |
| DPZDomino’s Pizza, Inc. | 11.2 bn | 19.3 | — | 11.9% | +5.0% | −19% / −13% |
| CHEFChefs’ Warehouse, Inc. | 4.6 bn | 46.5 | 16.2% | 2.3% | +9.4% | +74% / +297% |
| UNFIUnited Natural Foods, Inc. | 2.9 bn | 36.0 | 5.3% | 0.3% | −2.0% | +29% / +232% |
| HFFGHf Foods Group Inc. | 80.3 m | — | -15.5% | -2.8% | +2.2% | −41% / −69% |
| DITAmcon Distributing Co | 59.4 m | 33.1 | 1.6% | 0.1% | +3.9% | −19% / −48% |
| RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc. | 31.1 m | 11.0 | 18.3% | 22.3% | +7.2% | −31% / −4% |
| MWYNMarwynn Holdings, Inc. | 27.7 m | — | -54.7% | -24.7% | +427.5% | +59% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for USFD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 67.64 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 119.55 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 180.03 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 66.30 Total return -40% · Per year -16% | 131.80 Total return 20% · Per year 6% | 217.83 Total return 98% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 64.99 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 145.30 Total return 32% · Per year 6% | 263.57 Total return 140% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 32.95
- Net margin± 23.06
- Annual revenue growth± 18.84
- Annual dilution± 1.94
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
US Foods Holding Corp. is one of the largest foodservice distributors in the United States, supplying about 250,000 customer locations from independent restaurants to healthcare and hospitality operators. Amid food inflation and cost pressure, it reported in the first half of fiscal 2026 higher case volume and record adjusted EBITDA, with net sales of 10.5 billion USD in the second quarter.
SWOT
Strengths
- National scale, an extensive distribution network and a large truck fleet support efficient operations and high service levels. 1
- The Exclusive Brands private label portfolio and the MOXē digital platform support customer loyalty and can lift profitability. 1
- Growth in independent restaurant volume and in healthcare and hospitality points to a strategy that is working at present. 2
Weaknesses
- Operating margins are thin, and results depend on how fast the company can pass cost increases on to customers. 1
- Reliance on group purchasing organizations creates pricing pressure, and losing relationships could hit sales. 1
- Substantial net debt limits financial flexibility, although the ratio to adjusted EBITDA improved in the second quarter. 3
Opportunities
- If independent restaurants keep growing, margins could improve, since these customers are the most profitable. 1
- Integrating recent acquisitions and expanding into new regional markets could open further growth. 1
- AI and digital tools could lower operator costs and strengthen the company's relationship with customers. 1
Threats
- An economic slowdown or falling consumer confidence could reduce meals eaten away from home. 1
- Tariffs, inflation and volatile fuel costs can raise expenses that are not fully passed on to customers. 1
- Competition from local distributors, warehouse clubs and online sellers could push prices and margins down. 1
Risks
- Economic slowdownhigh
A reduction in economic activity or consumer confidence could lower the frequency and amount spent on food prepared away from home. 1
- Thin margins and volatile costshigh
The company operates on low margins, so if costs rise faster than prices, profitability could be affected. 1
- Dependence on group purchasing organizationsmedium
If GPOs negotiate better terms with competitors or relationships are lost, part of the sales base could be lost. 1
- Supplier dependencemedium
Supply interruptions, product scarcity or supplier price increases could prevent the company from fulfilling orders. 1
- Technology and cybersecuritylow
Cyber incidents or system failures could disrupt orders and deliveries, and adopting AI introduces new risks. 2
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in independent restaurant volume and record adjusted EBITDA suggest the strategy is working, and reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance supports that view. 3
- National scale, the private label portfolio and the digital platform offer an advantage that smaller competitors find hard to copy, and margins could keep expanding if execution holds.
- Operating cash flow and the share repurchase program show financial discipline, and a falling ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA could support longer-term earnings growth. 3
What would break the thesis
- Margins are thin, and a prolonged period of inflation or volatile costs could pressure profitability even if sales keep rising.
- Concentration on independent restaurants, the most profitable customers, could become a weakness if they cut spending or if GPO price pressure intensifies.
- Net debt remains significant, and an economic slowdown could reduce the cash available for investment and buybacks. 3
What to watch
- Delivery of the fiscal 2026 guidance on net sales and adjusted EBITDA growth2026
- Case volume trends at independent restaurants and chain customersQ3 2026
- Effect of integrating the Jake's Finer Foods and Shetakis acquisitions on margins2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Its most profitable customers are independent restaurants, while healthcare, hospitality, education and government are also core. In fiscal 2025 no single customer exceeded 2% of customer sales, and group purchasing organizations accounted for about 27% of net sales. 1
Segments
Meats and seafood
Meats and seafood is the largest sales category at 13,974 million USD in fiscal 2025, up from 12,930 million USD the year before. 1
Staple grocery and dairy
Dry grocery (6,685 million USD), refrigerated and frozen grocery (6,635 million USD) and dairy (4,214 million USD) form the steady core of the portfolio. 1
Other categories
Beverages (2,338 million USD), equipment, disposables and supplies (3,631 million USD) and produce (1,947 million USD) complete the mix, with produce declining from the prior year. 1
Market context
US foodservice distribution is fragmented across local, regional and national players, and US Foods is classed as a broadline distributor. Demand depends on how often consumers eat away from home, which is sensitive to economic conditions and consumer confidence. 1
The industry runs on low margins and high inventory turnover. Volatile food costs and inflation pass into prices with a lag, and in the first half of fiscal 2026 food cost inflation added a price component to sales growth. 2
Trends
- Shifting food preferencesmixed
New dietary trends and changing menus are reshaping restaurant behavior, and distributors may need broader assortments and efficient supply chains to meet demand for healthy and fresh products. 1
- Technology and artificial intelligencetailwind
Digital tools and AI can reduce waste and optimize operator costs, and distributors with strong platforms such as MOXē could gain a competitive edge. Competitors adopting new technology may, however, add pressure on margins. 1
- Tariffs and inflationheadwind
Tariffs on imported ingredients, packaging and equipment raise costs, and operators have moved to raise menu prices and shift to domestic sourcing. Inflationary pressure can dampen discretionary demand and affect profitability. 1
- Growth in the independent segmenttailwind
Independent restaurants, healthcare and hospitality grew faster than the wider market in the first half of fiscal 2026, suggesting that the focus on these segments is producing results. 2
Competitive position
Competition is intense, coming from national, multiregional, regional and local distributors as well as cash-and-carry operators, warehouse clubs, grocery stores and online sellers. Customers have no exclusive contracts and can switch distributors, and barriers to entry are low. 1
Some competitors have greater scale or financial resources in certain markets, and local distributors can benefit from proximity and a lower cost to serve. The company differentiates through private label, its digital platform and its extensive delivery network. 1
- Sysco CorporationSYY
Large foodservice distributor referenced in the sources as a broadline rival with greater scale in certain markets.
- Regional and local distributors
Regional and local distributors can form purchasing cooperatives, enjoy local presence and lower cost to serve, giving them advantages in particular geographies. 1
- Cash-and-carry and warehouse clubs
Cash-and-carry outlets and commercial wholesale clubs compete for the same foodservice customers, especially price-sensitive smaller operators. 1
- Online sellers and grocery stores
Online direct food wholesalers and grocery stores compete in specific segments, using technology and direct channels to operators. 1
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report05 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 May 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / US Foods Holding Corp. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / US Foods Holding Corp. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / US Foods Holding Corp. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.