olivLaw · US equity research
DexCom, Inc. DXCM
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)
DexCom is a medical device company that designs and sells continuous glucose monitoring systems for people with diabetes and for metabolic health. In the first half of 2026 the company reported revenue growth and kept its growth outlook for fiscal 2026, making it a notable player in an expanding market. Revenue in fiscal 2025 reached 4.66 billion USD, and the second quarter of 2026 brought 1.31 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) stock was 84.76 USD (+3.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 31.6 bn USD, P/E 33.4 on diluted EPS of 2.54 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.90, 52-week range 54.84–92.34 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+11.2% YoY), net income of 275.1 m USD (−3.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.72 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 76.58 – 88.96
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.66 · band width 14.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 85.67 / 74.64
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.32 / -1.47
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.7% | −2.3% | +1.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.9% | −0.8% | −2.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +41.2% | +4.7% | +36.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +27.7% | +10.2% | +17.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +45.6% | +10.3% | +35.3 pp | −2.6% |
| 3 years | −13.0% | +73.0% | −86.1 pp | +11.6% |
| 5 years | −45.3% | +61.8% | −107.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 457.7 m | 447.0 m | 468.3 m | 477.9 m | 466.9 m | 441.6 m | 478.4 m | 480.1 m |
| Gross profit | 655.8 m | 589.0 m | 688.8 m | 731.4 m | 792.7 m | 750.3 m | 830.0 m | 864.4 m |
| Research & development | 139.5 m | 145.2 m | 148.2 m | 157.5 m | 148.2 m | 145.3 m | 153.0 m | 161.6 m |
| SG&A | 327.4 m | 310.1 m | 328.0 m | 331.4 m | 321.5 m | 349.7 m | 358.7 m | 375.6 m |
| Operating income | 188.9 m | 133.7 m | 212.6 m | 242.5 m | 323.0 m | 255.3 m | 318.3 m | 327.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 57.8 m | 60.0 m | 63.0 m | 63.6 m | 65.2 m | 67.1 m | 68.2 m | 74.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 4.9 m | 4.7 m | 4.7 m | 4.7 m | 4.2 m | 3.1 m | 3.0 m | 3.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 211.3 m | 154.3 m | 241.1 m | 352.3 m | 340.7 m | 269.5 m | 317.5 m | 334.7 m |
| Income tax | 59.6 m | 48.9 m | 61.3 m | 68.5 m | 73.4 m | 70.0 m | 68.4 m | 59.6 m |
| Net income | 151.7 m | 105.4 m | 179.8 m | 283.8 m | 267.3 m | 199.5 m | 249.1 m | 275.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.37 ≈ | 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.70 | 0.67 ≈ | 0.51 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| Operating cash flow | 301.4 m | 183.8 m | 303.0 m ≈ | 659.9 m ≈ | 294.0 m | 525.6 m | 269.2 m ≈ | 325.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 124.6 m | 87.0 m | 94.1 m ≈ | 80.5 m ≈ | 101.9 m | 76.6 m | 84.7 m ≈ | 52.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | — | — | 187.2 m ≈ | 312.8 m | — | — | 400.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 10 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 26.7, median 60.1, max 207.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +43.6% | +43.1% | +30.5% | +27.1% | +18.8% | +24.5% | +11.3% | +15.6% |
| Net income | -127.1 m | 101.1 m | 549.7 m | 216.9 m | 341.2 m | 541.5 m | 576.2 m | 836.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +443.7% | −60.5% | +57.3% | +58.7% | +6.4% | +45.1% |
| Diluted EPS | -1.44 | 1.10 | 1.33 | 0.53 | 0.82 | 1.30 | 1.42 | 2.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +20.9% | −60.2% | +54.7% | +58.5% | +9.2% | +47.2% |
| net % | -12.3% | 6.8% | 28.5% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Free cash flow | 56.1 m | 134.5 m | 276.6 m | 53.3 m | 304.7 m | 511.9 m | 630.7 m | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 917.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 2.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 6.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.88x
- ROE
- 34.5%
- ROA
- 13.0%
- FCF margin
- 23.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 646.6 m | 768.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 359.9 m | 517.1 m | 484.2 m | 505.8 m | 552.4 m | 599.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 618.2 m | 810.5 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 299.5 m | 265.8 m | 391.2 m | 597.7 m | 600.0 m | 911.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 67.1 m | 102.0 m | 155.9 m | 186.0 m | 217.7 m | 251.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 366.6 m ≈ | 367.8 m ≈ | 547.1 m ≈ | 783.7 m ≈ | 817.7 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 17.7 m | 18.8 m | 18.6 m | 20.3 m | 19.0 m | 18.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 297.9 m | 256.8 m | 390.8 m | 710.4 m | 709.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -251.8 m | 39.9 m | 49.6 m | 168.9 m | 132.8 m | 252.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 549.7 m | 216.9 m | 341.2 m | 541.5 m | 576.2 m | 836.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.33 | 0.53 | 0.82 | 1.30 | 1.42 | 2.09 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 420.4 m | 428.8 m | 427.5 m | 425.5 m | 412.7 m | 405.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 817.6 m | 1.1 bn | 642.3 m | 566.3 m | 606.1 m | 917.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 428.5 m | 514.3 m | 713.3 m | 973.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 234.7 m | 357.3 m | 306.7 m | 559.6 m | 542.6 m | 629.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 515.3 m | 801.8 m | 1.1 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 19.3 m | 26.5 m | 25.7 m | 25.2 m | 22.8 m | 24.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 31.5 m | 173.3 m | 134.5 m | 103.4 m | 70.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 614.1 m | 720.8 m | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 475.6 m | 442.5 m | 669.5 m | 748.5 m | 989.5 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 199.0 m | 389.2 m | 364.8 m | 236.6 m | 358.8 m | 363.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 276.6 m ≈ | 53.3 m ≈ | 304.7 m ≈ | 511.9 m ≈ | 630.7 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.0 bn | -216.1 m | -521.5 m | -507.2 m | -207.5 m | 536.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 912.1 m | 10.4 m | -552.5 m | -318.6 m | -734.8 m | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 557.7 m | 688.7 m | 750.0 m | 500.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 75 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 31.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality92
- Growth100
- Valuation38
- Balance sheet91
- Returns59
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 57.28 – 107.98 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E57.28 – 107.98 (Mid 75.25)6 companies used · median multiple 29.6x · quartiles 22.6x – 42.5xBDX, BSX, MMM, RMD, SYK, WST
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 75/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 19.4% | 83 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 110.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 17.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 36.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 91.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 78 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 33.4x | 33 (vs peers) | 16% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.5% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.2% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial59/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation38/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
DEXCOM, INC. (DXCM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 15.6%; net margin 19.4%; ROE 37.7%.
The estimated value range is 57.28–107.98 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 75.25 USD, the price of 84.76 USD leaves a potential of -11.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -12.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 75/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 19.4%
- FCF conversion: 110.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 17.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 36.6%
- Interest coverage: 91.3x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 3.7 bn and 236.4 bn (within 8× of the company's); 107 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYKStryker Corp | 116.8 bn | 32.7 | 16.0% | 13.8% | +11.2% | −17% / +4% |
| MMM3m Company | 92.2 bn | 26.6 | 80.8% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +4% / +115% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | 64.2 bn | 18.8 | 14.3% | 16.6% | +19.9% | −56% / −21% |
| BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company | 54.1 bn | 60.0 | 3.8% | 4.0% | +8.2% | +30% / +7% |
| RMDResMed Inc. | 32.8 bn | 21.2 | 26.4% | 27.8% | +9.9% | −9% / +48% |
| DXCMDexcom, Inc. | 31.6 bn | 33.4 | 37.7% | 19.4% | +15.6% | +46% / −13% |
| WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 28.4 bn | 45.8 | 21.2% | 18.8% | +6.3% | +47% / +16% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DXCM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 57.94 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 101.97 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 152.96 Total return 80% · Per year 80% |
| 3 years | 68.73 Total return -19% · Per year -7% | 134.86 Total return 59% · Per year 17% | 220.26 Total return 160% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 81.53 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 178.35 Total return 110% · Per year 16% | 317.17 Total return 274% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 33.71
- Net margin± 23.60
- Annual revenue growth± 17.60
- Annual dilution± 1.98
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
DexCom is a medical device company that designs and sells continuous glucose monitoring systems for people with diabetes and for metabolic health. In the first half of 2026 the company reported revenue growth and kept its growth outlook for fiscal 2026, making it a notable player in an expanding market. Revenue in fiscal 2025 reached 4.66 billion USD, and the second quarter of 2026 brought 1.31 billion USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a strong position in continuous glucose monitoring, with a recognized product range and sensors valued for accuracy. The data ecosystem and integration with external devices support customer loyalty.
- Revenue and margin growth in recent quarters shows the company's ability to grow efficiently. Cash reserves give flexibility for investment in production capacity.
- Clinical evidence, including results from the CONNECT study, supports use of the products across different patient groups and can help acceptance by physicians and insurers.
Weaknesses
- A significant share of revenue depends on reimbursement from public and private programs, and policy changes can reduce prices. This dependence makes the company vulnerable.
- Production includes offshore facilities, which can create logistics and compliance risks. Manufacturing costs must be controlled constantly to protect margins.
- Revenue follows a seasonal pattern, with weaker quarters early in the year, which makes results harder to predict between quarters.
Opportunities
- Expansion to Type 2 diabetes without insulin and to prediabetes could open a large user base. Over-the-counter products can reach customers not yet in the medical system.
- Partnerships with insulin makers and consumer technology companies can increase sales and integrate products into more digital ecosystems.
- International markets, where the company is expanding distribution, could contribute increasingly to growth, especially if reimbursement improves in other countries.
Threats
- Competitive bidding in Medicare programs can reduce reimbursement prices, and this effect could appear after 2028. Price pressure could affect margins.
- Competitors with similar or cheaper products can reduce market share, especially if they obtain reimbursement on the same terms.
- US legislative changes to Medicaid and the ACA can reduce the number of insured people and limit access to the company's products.
Risks
- Reimbursement pressurehigh
Changes in public and private programs can reduce prices or limit product coverage. The impact could be significant for US revenue.
- Competitive biddinghigh
The competitive bidding program for CGM could lead to lower payments after 2028. The risk depends on the final form of the rules and the number of contracts awarded.
- Offshore supply chainmedium
Manufacturing in facilities outside the country can expose the company to logistics disruption and new reporting requirements on product origin.
- Technology competitionmedium
New products with comparable accuracy or lower prices could reduce market share and accelerate price declines.
- Seasonal revenue patternlow
Quarters with weaker sales, linked to deductible resets, can make quarterly results more volatile, especially if they coincide with other pressures.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue growth stays in line with the fiscal 2026 outlook, the company could show that the CGM market remains solid and that its products can gain additional share.
- CONNECT study results for Type 2 diabetes without insulin could open new demand and support acceptance by insurers.
- If gross margins stay close to the forecast level, the company could turn revenue growth into higher profit and fund capacity investment.
What would break the thesis
- If competitive bidding significantly reduces Medicare reimbursement, margins could fall faster than the market expects, especially after 2028.
- Competition from producers with cheaper products could reduce market share and could force price cuts.
- If US legislative changes reduce the number of insured people, demand for the company's products could decline in some segments.
What to watch
- Achievement of the revenue outlook for fiscal 20262026
- Final details of the CMS competitive bidding program for CGM2027
- Development of non-GAAP gross margin against the forecast levelQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
The revenue model is based on selling disposable sensors, plus reusable transmitters and receivers. Revenue follows a seasonal pattern, with lower sales in the first quarter, linked to US annual insurance deductible resets. The company sells through distributors and a direct sales force in North America and several international markets.
The long-term strategy includes future technology generations focused on performance and convenience, integration with automated insulin delivery systems, and expansion to people with prediabetes, obesity or in hospital settings. The company also works with insulin pump makers and consumer technology companies.
Segments
Stelo and the over-the-counter market
Stelo was launched in August 2024 for adults with prediabetes or Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin. This segment opens glucose monitoring beyond diagnosed diabetes patients.
International sales
International sales are growing faster than US sales, and the second quarter of 2026 showed stronger growth outside the country. DexCom sells through distributors and direct sales, especially in Europe and other regions.
Market context
The glucose monitoring market is tied to the growing number of people with diabetes worldwide. The IDF estimated 589 million adults with diabetes in 2024, and direct and indirect costs in the US reached 413 billion USD. This gives the CGM market growth potential, especially among Type 2 patients who do not use insulin.
Most revenue still comes from the US, and reimbursement by insurers and Medicare largely determines patient access. Reimbursement policies and competition in CGM devices therefore have a direct effect on demand and prices.
Trends
- Expansion to Type 2 diabetes without insulintailwind
Clinical studies and collaborations with organizations treating Type 2 diabetes could open a broader market. If clinical results hold in practice, demand could grow beyond the traditional patient group.
- Competitive bidding for Medicareheadwind
CMS extended competitive bidding to CGM sensors, with contracts from 2027 and payment changes from 2028. If reimbursement prices fall, the company's revenue could be affected.
- US health policy changesheadwind
The 2025 budget law brings significant Medicaid changes, with possible eligibility restrictions and fewer insured people. The effect on users could be negative, but depends on state-level implementation.
- Integration with insulin pumps and digital devicesmixed
Collaborations with insulin pump makers and digital platforms could strengthen the company's position and create an ecosystem around its products. This integration could support customer loyalty.
Competitive position
Glucose monitoring faces competition from traditional finger-stick methods, which remain the most widespread and can be reimbursed more easily. Other CGM system makers and consumer biosensor companies also compete on price, accuracy and app integration.
The company's advantage comes from sensor accuracy, long wear duration and its data and device integration ecosystem. Competitive pressure could rise if new producers obtain similar reimbursement or lower prices in public programs.
- Abbott LaboratoriesABT
Maker of continuous glucose monitoring systems that competes directly in the CGM segment.
- MedtronicMDT
Company offering CGM systems and integration with insulin pumps, active in the same diabetes ecosystem.
- Traditional finger-stick methods
Single-point glucose meters remain the most widespread and compete on more predictable reimbursement costs.
- Consumer biosensor makers
Technology and health companies developing over-the-counter products could compete with Stelo for customers who want monitoring without a physician.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- DexCom Stock: Is DXCM Underperforming the Healthcare Sector?Yahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Dexcom, Abbott await Medicare coverage expansion for CGMsYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Dexcom’s Bet Beyond DiabetesBloomberg Markets · 15 May 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 08 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report15 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / DexCom, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / DexCom, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / DexCom, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.