olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD

Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo · SIC 4731 · Vertical: Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo (SIC 4731)

204.31USD+1.87% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NYSE: EXPD) is a global logistics provider that operates as a non-asset-based company, reselling cargo capacity bought from airlines, ocean carriers and trucking lines. Revenues rose 32% in the second quarter of 2026 to $3.5 billion, driven by demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and tight air capacity. The outlook could still be sensitive to tariffs and to volatility in carrier rates.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock was 204.31 USD (+1.87% on the day), with market capitalisation 26.6 bn USD, P/E 29.7 on diluted EPS of 6.87 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.75%, beta 0.65, 52-week range 134.54–204.31 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 3.5 bn USD (+32.1% YoY), net income of 266.2 m USD (+45.0% YoY), diluted EPS 2.03 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
26.6 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.7
Diluted EPS TTM 6.87 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.36%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.75%
DPS 12m 1.54
Beta (2y)
0.65
Volatility (1y) 31%
52-week range
134.54204.31

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
68.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
191.11 – 202.61
above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 5.8%
SMA 50 / 200
192.33 / 167.29
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.73 / 2.37
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+6.2%−2.0%+8.1 pp—
3 months+12.6%−2.2%+14.7 pp—
6 months+33.5%+4.3%+29.2 pp—
Year to date+37.1%+10.6%+26.5 pp—
1 year+66.8%+10.5%+56.4 pp−52.6%
3 years+80.9%+73.7%+7.2 pp−74.3%
5 years+56.3%+61.7%−5.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−15.9%
06 Feb 2026 → 24 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−36.0%
16 Dec 2021 → 26 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+9.3%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
3.5 bn USD
+32.1% YoY
Net income
266.2 m USD
+45.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.03
+51.5% YoY
net / operating
7.6% / 10.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue3.0 bn3.0 bn2.7 bn2.7 bn2.9 bn2.9 bn2.8 bn3.5 bn
Operating income301.5 m301.1 m265.9 m247.7 m288.0 m250.9 m294.8 m349.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation15.8 m15.2 m14.6 m13.8 m14.2 m14.1 m13.9 m12.7 m
Pre-tax income312.4 m313.3 m275.9 m258.0 m298.2 m262.0 m306.5 m358.5 m
Income tax82.5 m77.1 m71.8 m74.1 m75.1 m61.1 m76.4 m91.2 m
Net income229.6 m235.9 m203.8 m183.6 m222.3 m200.7 m229.6 m266.2 m
Diluted EPS1.631.68 ≈1.471.341.641.49 ≈1.712.03
Operating cash flow90.0 m249.7 m342.6 m179.2 m201.4 m283.3 m309.2 m178.6 m
Capex12.3 m10.1 m13.2 m15.9 m11.1 m13.0 m12.6 m12.0 m
Dividends paid0101.4 m—104.1 m0103.3 m—105.8 m
Share repurchases140.0 m252.2 m177.4 m231.1 m212.3 m46.5 m287.6 m354.9 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 9.3, median 21.5, max 26.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue8.1 bn7.9 bn9.6 bn16.5 bn17.1 bn9.3 bn10.6 bn11.1 bn
Revenue YoY+17.6%−2.4%+20.7%+72.4%+3.3%−45.5%+14.0%+4.4%
Net income618.2 m590.4 m696.1 m1.4 bn1.4 bn752.9 m810.1 m810.3 m
Net income YoY+26.3%−4.5%+17.9%+103.3%−4.1%−44.5%+7.6%+0.0%
Diluted EPS3.483.394.078.278.265.015.725.95
Diluted EPS YoY+29.4%−2.6%+20.1%+103.2%−0.1%−39.3%+14.2%+4.0%
net %7.6%7.4%7.3%8.6%8.0%8.1%7.6%7.3%
Free cash flow525.3 m724.7 m607.4 m832.2 m2.0 bn1.0 bn682.9 m953.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.3 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
2.4 bn USD
Total assets
4.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.81x
ROE
35.4%
ROA
16.8%
FCF margin
8.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
9.3 bn
2024
10.6 bn
2025
11.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
939.9 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
67.8 m
2024
61.1 m
2025
56.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.0 bn ≈
2024
1.1 bn ≈
2025
1.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
4.8 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2024verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
263.2 m
2024
283.2 m
2025
282.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
752.9 m
2024
810.1 m
2025
810.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
5.01
2024
5.72
2025
5.95

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
150.2 m
2024
141.7 m
2025
136.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.38
2024
1.46
2025
1.54

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
1.5 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
3.4 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
479.2 m
2024
449.4 m
2025
462.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
7.9 m
2024
7.9 m
2025
7.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.5 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
860.9 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.7 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.1 bn
2024
723.4 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
39.3 m
2024
40.5 m
2025
53.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.0 bn ≈
2024
682.9 m ≈
2025
953.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-39.4 m
2024
-40.5 m
2025
-44.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.5 bn
2024
-1.0 bn
2025
-802.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
202.0 m
2024
204.1 m
2025
207.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.4 bn
2024
855.1 m
2025
667.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-13.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
1.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-15.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
4.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
7.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
39.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
42.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
45.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
22.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
22.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
972.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
48.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
923.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
100.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
78.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
70 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
26.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
28.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
12.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
28.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 43 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

204.31 USD

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 26.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
26.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
12.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
42.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Aug 2026
verified 2769derived 196

Score by group

  • Valuation19
  • Returns76
  • Quality100
  • Balance sheet64
  • Growth0

Estimated value range

Low
4.05
USD per share
Mid
164.70
USD per share
High
169.12
USD per share
Price: 204.31 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -19.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -24.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.05 – 169.12 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E4.05 – 169.12 (Mid 164.70)
    5 companies used · median multiple 24.0x · quartiles 0.6x – 24.6x
    BCO, CHRW, GVH, HUBG, RLGT
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate20.24 – 27.22 (Mid 23.21)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo (SIC 4731)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 43/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality7.6%100 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality100.6%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-13.4%0 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-10.4%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x64 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation29.7x0 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation3.5%43 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.2%60 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns22.6%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial64/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns76/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC. (EXPD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.4%; net margin 7.6%; ROE 42.6%.

The estimated value range is 4.05–169.12 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 164.70 USD, the price of 204.31 USD leaves a potential of -19.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -24.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 7.6%
  • FCF conversion: 100.6%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 22.6%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -13.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -10.4%
  • P/E (TTM): 29.7x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo (SIC 4731) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
29.7x
vertical median 24.0x
above median (+24.0%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
2.2x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+159.8%)
P/B
12.5x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+1,538.9%)
ROE
42.6%
vertical median -33.5%
above median
Net margin
7.6%
vertical median -9.4%
above median
EBIT margin
9.8%
vertical median -5.5%
above median
Revenue YoY
4.4%
vertical median -4.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.7x
Dividend yield
0.8%
vertical median 6.9%
below median (−89.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
EXPDExpeditors International Of Washington, Inc.26.6 bn29.742.6%7.6%+4.4%+67% / +81%
CHRWC.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.15.5 bn24.038.9%3.7%−8.4%−16% / +63%
BCOBrink’s Co4.7 bn26.164.0%3.3%+5.0%+1% / +43%
FWRDForward Air Corporation644.5 m—-1,574.1%-11.4%+0.8%−17% / −70%
RLGTRadiant Logistics, Inc.450.2 m24.68.0%2.0%+3.5%+54% / +60%
NCEWNew Century Logistics (bvi) Limited422.8 m—-185.6%-24.2%−15.5%+311% / unavailable
PSIGPS International Group Ltd.80.1 m—-440.7%-28.6%−39.0%+28% / unavailable
CRGOFreightos Ltd32.8 m—-35.8%-59.5%+23.9%−79% / −79%
VNTGVantage Corp14.3 m—-31.1%-7.4%−4.4%−50% / unavailable
QNMEQuanome Technologies, Inc.13.4 m—-192.5%-162.1%+111.8%−55% / unavailable
SLGBSmart Logistics Global Limited9.5 m—-13.4%-2.9%unavailable−87% / unavailable
ELOGEastern International Ltd.9.2 m—-8.6%-454.0%−24.4%−65% / unavailable
JYDJayud Global Logistics Limited9.0 m—-36.8%-5.9%+8.7%−65% / −99%
SGLYSingularity Future Technology Ltd.2.6 m—-55.6%-347.5%−6.6%−95% / −99%
FRGTFreight Technologies, Inc.1.6 m—-338.3%-60.5%−4.9%−95% / −100%
GVHGlobavend Holdings Limited1.4 m0.69.0%2.9%+42.5%−76% / −100%
HUBGHub Group, Inc.—0.16.3%2.8%−6.1%−30% / −29%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EXPD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
112.38
Total return -44% · Per year -44%
199.67
Total return -2% · Per year -2%
302.14
Total return 49% · Per year 49%
3 years
89.23
Total return -55% · Per year -23%
180.21
Total return -10% · Per year -3%
302.14
Total return 51% · Per year 15%
5 years
70.85
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
162.64
Total return -17% · Per year -4%
302.14
Total return 52% · Per year 9%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 45.05
  • Net margin± 31.54
  • Annual revenue growth± 28.48
  • Annual dilution± 2.65

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NYSE: EXPD) is a global logistics provider that operates as a non-asset-based company, reselling cargo capacity bought from airlines, ocean carriers and trucking lines 1. Revenues rose 32% in the second quarter of 2026 to $3.5 billion, driven by demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and tight air capacity 23. The outlook could still be sensitive to tariffs and to volatility in carrier rates 12.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The non-asset-based model offers flexibility without heavy investment in physical transport assets, and the global office network and single technology platform support operational efficiency 1.
  • The company's culture, which focuses on its own trained personnel and on customer service, is regarded as a point of differentiation from competitors 1.
  • Diversification across services and regions gives a broader revenue base, and in the second quarter of 2026 growth was reported across the main lines of business 23.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on a small number of export regions, particularly North Asia, exposes the company to changes in trade policy 1.
  • The ocean services segment has experienced a prolonged period of revenue decline, which shows its sensitivity to imbalances in capacity 12.
  • The company depends on third-party carriers for capacity, so disruptions at those carriers can directly affect deliveries and margins 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand from the artificial intelligence and data center sectors could continue to grow, particularly in air freight and temperature-controlled logistics 23.
  • Lower costs from the restructuring of the technology team could improve long-term margins if the expected savings are realized 3.
  • Greater complexity in customs regulations could bring new clients to customs brokerage services if that demand persists 2.

Threats

  • Tariffs and political conflicts could reduce international trade volumes and increase volatility in rates 1.
  • Competition from companies with greater resources and from new technology firms could reduce margins and market share 1.
  • Limited capacity and higher fuel costs could strain carriers and affect the company's ability to deliver services on time 13.

Risks

  • Tariffs and trade conflicthigh

    High tariffs and retaliatory trade actions could reduce shipment volumes and lead to lost business or uncollected receivables 1.

  • Exposure to China-US tradehigh

    A significant share of revenues comes from exports from China and Hong Kong, so a change in trade relations could affect financial results 1.

  • Reliance on third-party carriersmedium

    Insufficient capacity or disruptions at airlines and ocean carriers could affect deliveries and margins, because the company does not own transport assets 1.

  • Cybersecuritymedium

    A cyber-attack or system disruption could affect operations, reduce revenues and lead to legal claims 1.

  • Dependence on key personnellow

    Difficulty attracting and retaining key employees, particularly as remote-work policies spread, could affect execution of the strategy 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Strong growth in revenues and operating income in the second quarter of 2026, supported by demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and rising airfreight, could point to a favorable trend for the company 23.
  • The restructuring of the technology group could lower annual costs by about $50 million, which could improve operating margins over the long term 3.
  • The late-quarter recovery in ocean rates could suggest that pressure in that segment is easing, if the trend holds 23.

What would break the thesis

  • Tariffs and trade uncertainty could reduce international volumes and make short-term results volatile 12.
  • Growth in air freight is tied in part to a geopolitical conflict and to concentrated demand from a few sectors, which could prove temporary 23.
  • If competitive pressure rises or customers demand more favorable contract terms, margins could decline even if volumes remain high 1.

What to watch

  • Evolution of tariffs and the impact of the court ruling on IEEPA tariffs on customs brokerageQ3 2026
  • Effects of the Global Technology restructuring on costs and headcountQ3 2026
  • Development of ocean rates and volumes after the second quarter of 2026Q3 2026
  • Investor Day presentation and any new financial targets from the companyInvestor Day 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Expeditors does not own aircraft or ships; it buys cargo space from carriers on a volume basis and resells it to customers, offering air and ocean freight, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, and order management 1. In fiscal 2025 airfreight accounted for approximately 36% of total revenues 1. The network includes 172 district offices grouped into five geographic areas and about 20,000 employees 1.

The company pursues organic growth on a single enterprise technology platform built in-house, and it emphasizes customer service and an incentive-based compensation model 1. In fiscal 2025 North Asia was the largest export-oriented region, accounting for 25% of revenues 1. In the second quarter of 2026 Expeditors also announced a restructuring of its Global Technology group 2.

Segments

Airfreight services

Airfreight represented approximately 36% of total revenues in 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 airfreight revenues rose 57% and tonnage rose 14%, supported by demand from customers investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure 23.

Market context

Expeditors operates in over 60 countries and its activity is closely tied to the global economy and international trade 1. Trade between China and the United States is a key exposure: in fiscal 2025, 19% of revenues came from exports from China and Hong Kong 1. Tariff policy could redirect trade flows and increase volatility in carrier rates 1.

Demand from the technology, cloud and data center sectors has become an important growth driver, particularly in air freight 2. On the other hand, carrier capacity and fuel prices could keep pressure on rates, and changes in e-commerce flows out of North Asia add further uncertainty 21.

Trends

  • Demand for artificial intelligence infrastructuretailwind

    Strong demand from customers investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure supported growth in airfreight and warehousing and distribution in the second quarter of 2026 23.

  • Tariffs and trade policymixed

    High tariffs and frequent changes in trade rules add uncertainty to trade volumes but have also increased the complexity of customs brokerage 12.

  • Constrained air capacitymixed

    The conflict in the Middle East and fewer passenger flights reduced available belly capacity, which pushed rates higher but could also strain carriers 3.

  • Ocean market recoverytailwind

    After several quarters of decline, ocean rates and volumes began rising late in the second quarter of 2026, which could signal stabilization in the market 23.

Competitive position

The global logistics industry is intensely competitive, with pressure coming from niche players, large carriers and emerging technology companies 1. Only a limited number of firms offer a full global range of services, but many competitors have significantly more resources than Expeditors 1. Customers regularly solicit competing bids, which could reduce margins or cost market share 1.

Expeditors states that its focus on operational excellence is helping it take market share 3. Other providers may offer more flexible contract terms, and competitors' acceptance of such terms could weigh on margins 1.

  • Airlines and ocean carriers

    Carriers are both suppliers and potential competitors, since they could sell transport services directly to customers 1.

  • Global logistics providers with full service networks

    Only a limited number of firms offer a full complement of global logistics services, and many of them have larger resources 1.

  • Niche logistics providers

    Specialized firms focused on narrow segments can compete with the company on particular routes or services 1.

  • Emerging technology companies

    New firms developing logistics technology may gain competitive advantages and attract customers looking for digital solutions 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw