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olivLaw · US equity research

Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

199.74USD−5.82% · 1 dayClose 02 Nov 2026

Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the Permian Basin in West Texas. In the first half of 2026 production reached over 1.0 million BOE/d, and the company raised its annual production guidance to about 1,000 MBOE/d. Net income for fiscal 2025 was 1.7 billion USD, after an impairment of about 3.7 billion USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 02 Nov 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock was 199.74 USD (−5.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 55.9 bn USD, P/E 38.9 on diluted EPS of 5.14 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.08%, beta 0.64, 52-week range 137.29–213.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 5.6 bn USD (+51.2% YoY), net income of 1.9 bn USD (+169.2% YoY), diluted EPS 6.65 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
55.9 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
38.9
Diluted EPS TTM 5.14 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.57%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.08%
DPS 12m 4.15
Beta (2y)
0.64
Volatility (1y) 33%
52-week range
137.29213.69

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
50.2
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
185.18 – 213.71
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.51 · band width 14.3%
SMA 50 / 200
197.16 / 189.89
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.38 / 2.76
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+8.1%−2.3%+10.5 pp—
3 months+0.5%−0.8%+1.3 pp—
6 months−6.5%+4.7%−11.3 pp—
Year to date+32.9%+10.2%+22.7 pp—
1 year+39.5%+10.3%+29.2 pp+45.5%
3 years+23.2%+73.0%−49.8 pp+32.0%
5 years+78.6%+61.8%+16.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−19.5%
04 May 2026 → 01 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−43.5%
17 Jul 2024 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+12.3%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
5.6 bn USD
+51.2% YoY
Net income
1.9 bn USD
+169.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
6.65
+179.4% YoY
net / operating
33.8% / 45.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue2.6 bn3.7 bn4.0 bn3.7 bn3.9 bn3.4 bn4.2 bn5.6 bn
SG&A49.0 m72.0 m73.0 m67.0 m70.0 m78.0 m79.0 m72.0 m
Operating income710.0 m1.4 bn1.7 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn-2.8 bn116.0 m2.5 bn
Depreciation & amortisation742.0 m1.2 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn
Pre-tax income918.0 m1.4 bn1.9 bn943.0 m1.4 bn-2.3 bn176.0 m2.6 bn
Income tax210.0 m115.0 m403.0 m204.0 m287.0 m-567.0 m32.0 m580.0 m
Net income659.0 m1.1 bn1.4 bn699.0 m1.0 bn-1.5 bn25.0 m1.9 bn
Diluted EPS3.193.68 ≈4.832.383.51-5.10 ≈0.086.65
Operating cash flow1.2 bn ≈2.3 bn2.4 bn1.7 bn ≈2.4 bn ≈2.3 bn1.8 bn3.6 bn ≈
Dividends paid416.0 m ≈262.0 m290.0 m291.0 m ≈289.0 m ≈286.0 m295.0 m310.0 m ≈
Share repurchases515.0 m ≈402.0 m575.0 m398.0 m ≈603.0 m ≈———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 90 percentile of its own 31-quarter history (min 4.9, median 11.2, max 227.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.2 bn4.0 bn2.8 bn6.8 bn9.6 bn8.4 bn11.1 bn15.0 bn
Revenue YoY+80.6%+82.2%−29.0%+141.6%+41.9%−12.8%+31.6%+35.8%
Net income846.0 m240.0 m-4.5 bn2.2 bn4.4 bn3.1 bn3.3 bn1.7 bn
Net income YoY+75.5%−71.6%−1,982.1%unavailable+101.0%−28.3%+6.2%−50.1%
Diluted EPS8.061.47-28.6112.2424.6117.3415.535.73
Diluted EPS YoY+63.2%−81.8%−2,046.3%unavailable+101.1%−29.5%−10.4%−63.1%
net %38.9%6.1%-160.6%32.1%45.5%37.4%30.2%11.1%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
104.0 m USD
Financial debt
14.5 bn USD
Net debt
14.4 bn USD
Equity
43.0 bn USD
Total assets
71.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.34x
Current ratio
0.42x
ROE
4.0%
ROA
2.4%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
8.4 bn
2024
11.1 bn
2025
15.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
150.0 m
2024
213.0 m
2025
288.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
4.6 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.7 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
6.3 bn ≈
2024
7.2 bn ≈
2025
6.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
159.0 m
2024
135.0 m
2025
244.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
4.2 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
912.0 m
2024
800.0 m
2025
327.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
17.34
2024
15.53
2025
5.73

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
180.0 m
2024
213.5 m
2025
289.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
7.99
2024
8.29
2025
4.00

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
582.0 m
2024
161.0 m
2025
104.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
654.0 m
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
63.0 m
2024
116.0 m
2025
86.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
26.7 bn
2024
64.5 bn
2025
68.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
29.0 bn
2024
67.3 bn
2025
71.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
900.0 m
2025
763.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
6.6 bn
2024
12.1 bn
2025
13.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.1 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
11.6 bn
2024
27.4 bn
2025
28.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
17.4 bn
2024
39.9 bn
2025
43.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
5.9 bn
2024
6.4 bn
2025
8.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.3 bn
2024
-11.2 bn
2025
-7.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-2.2 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
-1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
840.0 m
2024
959.0 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
35.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
15.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
39.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-71.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-50.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-27.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-63.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-38.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
37.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
80.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
12.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
4.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
10.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
160.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
31 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
55.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
68.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
38.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
38.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
62.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
4.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
1.64
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 20 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

199.74 USD

02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 55.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
55.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
38.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
35.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Aug 2026
verified 2020derived 120

Score by group

  • Growth50
  • Returns81
  • Quality0
  • Balance sheet14
  • Valuation0

Estimated value range

Low
51.51
USD per share
Mid
61.22
USD per share
High
71.06
USD per share
Price: 199.74 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -69.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -226.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 43.79 – 97.52 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA43.79 – 97.52 (Mid 93.56)
    5 companies used · median multiple 6.1x · quartiles 3.9x – 6.2x
    APA, EOG, EQT, EXE, OVV
  • Peers: P/E51.51 – 71.06 (Mid 61.22)
    8 companies used · median multiple 11.9x · quartiles 10.0x – 13.8x
    APA, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, OVV, OXY, PR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)52.56 – 70.69 (Mid 60.29)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 20/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality1.6%0 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality8.6%0 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth15.9%100 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-38.5%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.9x0 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet4.4x45 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.5x0 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation38.9x0 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.8x0 (vs peers)13%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.6%81 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet14/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial81/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 15.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 35.8%; net margin 8.6%; ROE 3.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.9x.

The estimated value range is 51.51–71.06 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 61.22 USD, the price of 199.74 USD leaves a potential of -69.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -226.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 20/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.9%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.6%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 1.6%
  • Net margin: 8.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -38.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.9x
  • Current ratio: 0.5x
  • P/E (TTM): 38.9x
  • EV/EBITDA: 10.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 6.9 bn and 441.6 bn (within 8× of the company's); 74 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
38.9x
vertical median 11.9x
above median (+226.3%)
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
vertical median 6.1x
above median (+77.5%)
P/S
3.3x
vertical median 2.8x
above median (+16.8%)
P/B
1.5x
vertical median 1.5x
at median
ROE
3.8%
vertical median 13.1%
below median (−70.8%)
Net margin
8.6%
vertical median 21.5%
below median (−60.1%)
EBIT margin
6.3%
vertical median 32.9%
below median (−80.8%)
Revenue YoY
35.8%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+2,675.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.9x
vertical median 0.7x
above median (+177.6%)
Dividend yield
2.1%
vertical median 1.9%
above median (+12.1%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
EOGEog Resources, Inc.82.8 bn12.322.5%25.4%−4.5%+46% / +28%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation60.7 bn9.118.9%33.7%−1.9%+45% / +3%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.55.9 bn38.93.8%8.6%+35.8%+39% / +23%
DVNDevon Energy Corp53.5 bn11.511.5%16.7%+7.8%+31% / +8%
EQTEqt Corporation34.3 bn13.010.9%28.4%+63.9%−10% / +37%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation20.7 bn7.814.6%19.8%+186.3%−27% / +11%
PRPermian Resources Corporation20.6 bn16.311.5%21.5%+1.3%+69% / +87%
OVVOvintiv Inc.18.7 bn19.28.4%9.4%−2.7%+65% / +53%
APAApa Corporation17.1 bn10.325.9%—unavailable+96% / +36%

1- and 3-year price returns: for FANG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
133.08
Total return -32% · Per year -32%
234.19
Total return 20% · Per year 20%
351.29
Total return 79% · Per year 79%
3 years
157.85
Total return -15% · Per year -5%
309.72
Total return 64% · Per year 18%
505.86
Total return 164% · Per year 38%
5 years
187.23
Total return 5% · Per year 1%
409.61
Total return 121% · Per year 17%
728.44
Total return 286% · Per year 31%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 77.43
  • Net margin± 54.20
  • Annual revenue growth± 40.42
  • Annual dilution± 4.55

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 8-K (08 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the Permian Basin in West Texas. In the first half of 2026 production reached over 1.0 million BOE/d, and the company raised its annual production guidance to about 1,000 MBOE/d 2. Net income for fiscal 2025 was 1.7 billion USD, after an impairment of about 3.7 billion USD 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a leading position in the Permian Basin, with a large net acreage position and a sizeable inventory of economic drilling locations 1. Its listed subsidiary Viper adds royalty-based diversification 12.
  • Cash operating costs per barrel have been kept low, which supports margins when prices are high 12. The company has shown capital discipline through share repurchases and debt reduction 12.
  • Production has grown year on year and the company has passed the one million BOE per day level 12.

Weaknesses

  • Concentration in a single region, the Permian Basin, exposes the company to local transport, regulatory and water risks 1.
  • Significant asset impairments were recorded in the final quarter of 2025, showing the sensitivity of book value to commodity prices 1.
  • A substantial debt load limits financial flexibility and could affect access to and terms of financing 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanded Permian takeaway capacity could narrow gas price differentials and improve realizations 2. Delineation of the Barnett/Woodford zone could add new drilling locations 1.
  • Non-core asset sales and royalty acquisitions could reshape the portfolio and support growth 12.
  • If oil prices remain elevated, the company could return more capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks 12.

Threats

  • A fall in oil and gas prices could significantly reduce revenues, cash flow and reserve value 1.
  • Climate policy and the shift to lower-emission energy could reduce long-term demand for the company's products 1.
  • Trade tariffs and policy uncertainty could slow the economy and raise financing costs 1.

Risks

  • Commodity price volatilityhigh

    Oil and gas prices are volatile and can affect revenues, production and reserve value, especially if they fall 1.

  • Asset impairmentshigh

    A further price decline could lead to additional impairments of oil properties, which affect reported results but not cash flow 12.

  • Geographic concentrationmedium

    Operations are concentrated in one area, exposing the company to transport, regulatory and water risks in the Permian 1.

  • Debt and financing accessmedium

    A high debt level and a possible ratings downgrade could limit access to financing and raise its cost 1.

  • Hedging instrumentslow

    Commodity hedges can produce losses or cap gains from price increases, and counterparties may fail to perform 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If production stays above the current level and costs remain low, the company could keep generating strong cash flow and returning capital to shareholders 12.
  • The extended inventory of drilling locations and the Barnett/Woodford delineation could support longer-term production growth 1.
  • The expanded share repurchase authorization shows management's willingness to use capital flexibly if cash flows remain strong 2.

What would break the thesis

  • The high prices of 2026 are linked to a geopolitical shock and could reverse quickly, reducing revenues and possibly triggering further impairments 12.
  • Rising capital employed and debt could compress margins if prices fall, particularly during an energy transition 1.
  • Transport constraints and gas price differentials could keep weighing on gas revenues if remedies are delayed 2.

What to watch

  • Quarterly results and production guidanceQ3 2026
  • Waha-to-Henry Hub differential and takeaway expansion2026
  • Execution of the 2026 drop down and the Riverbend acquisition2026
  • Capital budget and buyback pace in the next annual reportnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 8-K (08 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

For 2026 the company plans to keep activity and production broadly flat versus the fourth quarter of 2025, with a cash capital budget of 3.60 to 3.90 billion USD 1. Its stated aims are an industry-leading breakeven oil price, funding the dividend and opportunistic share repurchases 1.

Segments

Viper subsidiary

Viper holds mineral and royalty interests and earns royalty and lease bonus income 2. In 2026 Viper acquired Riverbend and completed a drop down transaction, and the parent has agreed to transfer further royalty interests to Viper 2.

Market context

Permian natural gas realizations were hurt by a widening Waha-to-Henry Hub differential caused by takeaway constraints, which produced periods of negative Waha pricing 2. The company expects these constraints to ease as takeaway capacity expands, but realized prices will still depend on supply, demand and transport 2.

Trends

  • Oil price volatilitymixed

    Oil prices have been volatile, and a decline could reduce production, reserves and cash flow 1. The recent price rise linked to the Middle East conflict could support revenues if prices hold 2.

  • Trade policy and tariffsheadwind

    Tariffs and trade changes could reduce demand for oil and gas and raise the company's cost of capital 1. Uncertainty in this area remains high and hard to anticipate 1.

  • Energy transitionheadwind

    Climate policies and the shift to lower-carbon sources could reduce demand for oil and gas and raise operating costs 1. The company's own emissions targets also carry risks 1.

  • Permian transport infrastructuremixed

    Takeaway capacity limits in the Permian have weighed on gas prices and could constrain output if left unresolved 2. Expanded infrastructure, if completed, could ease these pressures later in 2026 2.

Competitive position

Diamondback Energy competes with other independent oil and gas producers in the Permian for acreage, equipment, personnel and transport infrastructure. Competition for acreage and services can affect development costs, especially in areas of high activity 1.

The company notes that operating in areas of high industry activity may make it harder to hire and retain qualified personnel, which could affect its competitiveness against other regional operators 1. Its stated advantage rests on low cash operating costs and operational efficiency 2.

  • Other independent Permian operators

    Producers working the same Permian formations that compete for acreage, services and infrastructure, as described in the risk factors 1.

  • Oilfield service providers

    Drilling and completion service companies the company relies on, where competition for resources can raise costs 1.

  • Midstream and transport operators

    Pipeline and processing operators, some not controlled by the company, whose capacity constrains takeaway of production 12.

  • Mineral and royalty companies

    Companies holding mineral and royalty interests comparable to those held by the Viper subsidiary in the Permian 2.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report02 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Oct 2026
    Results of operations
  • Current report30 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
  • Current report03 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 Jul 2026
    Results of operations
  • Current report15 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report20 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
  • Quarterly report06 May 2026
  • Current report04 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Diamondback Energy, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Diamondback Energy, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

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