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olivLaw · US equity research

Ovintiv Inc. OVV

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

67.78USD−6.66% · 1 dayClose 02 Nov 2026

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) is a North American producer of oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas, with assets in the Permian, Montney and other basins in the US and Canada. In the second quarter of 2026 the company averaged 615 MBOE/d, returned about 63% of Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow to shareholders and raised its 2026 production guidance to 630 - 645 MBOE/d with capital spending unchanged. Figures come from the 2025 annual report, the quarterly report and the July 2026 results release.

At the close of 02 Nov 2026, Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) stock was 67.78 USD (−6.66% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.7 bn USD, P/E 19.2 on diluted EPS of 3.53 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.77%, beta 0.83, 52-week range 36.64–72.62 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 3.0 bn USD (+30.0% YoY), net income of 456.0 m USD (+48.5% YoY), diluted EPS 1.62 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
18.7 bn USD
shares as of 17 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.2
Diluted EPS TTM 3.53 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.21%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.77%
DPS 12m 1.20
Beta (2y)
0.83
Volatility (1y) 36%
52-week range
36.6472.62

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
50.8
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
61.09 – 75.20
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.47 · band width 20.7%
SMA 50 / 200
65.02 / 57.79
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.15 / 2.16
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+12.3%−2.3%+14.7 pp—
3 months+9.5%−0.8%+10.3 pp—
6 months+7.7%+4.7%+3.0 pp—
Year to date+73.0%+10.2%+62.8 pp—
1 year+80.7%+10.3%+70.4 pp+37.9%
3 years+38.9%+73.0%−34.2 pp+28.8%
5 years+84.8%+61.8%+23.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−17.6%
05 May 2026 → 01 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−49.7%
07 Jun 2022 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+13.1%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
3.0 bn USD
+30.0% YoY
Net income
456.0 m USD
+48.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.62
+37.3% YoY
net / operating
15.1% / 33.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue2.3 bn2.2 bn2.4 bn2.3 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn2.5 bn3.0 bn
Operating income527.0 m2.0 m-89.0 m511.0 m273.0 m436.0 m-754.0 m994.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation599.0 m545.0 m545.0 m556.0 m545.0 m533.0 m561.0 m519.0 m
Interest expense103.0 m106.0 m97.0 m95.0 m91.0 m93.0 m104.0 m100.0 m
Pre-tax income558.0 m-101.0 m-193.0 m399.0 m192.0 m372.0 m-827.0 m539.0 m
Income tax51.0 m-41.0 m-34.0 m92.0 m44.0 m-574.0 m-197.0 m83.0 m
Net income507.0 m-60.0 m-159.0 m307.0 m148.0 m946.0 m-630.0 m456.0 m
Diluted EPS1.92-0.23 ≈-0.611.180.573.69 ≈-2.351.62
Operating cash flow1.0 bn1.0 bn873.0 m1.0 bn812.0 m954.0 m1.1 bn1.6 bn
Capex538.0 m552.0 m617.0 m521.0 m544.0 m465.0 m605.0 m574.0 m
Dividends paid78.0 m78.0 m78.0 m77.0 m77.0 m76.0 m85.0 m84.0 m
Share repurchases163.0 m00147.0 m160.0 m084.0 m345.0 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 90 percentile of its own 20-quarter history (min 0.8, median 6.5, max 44.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue5.9 bn6.7 bn6.1 bn8.7 bn12.5 bn10.9 bn9.2 bn8.9 bn
Revenue YoY+33.7%+13.3%−9.5%+42.2%+44.0%−12.7%−15.9%−2.7%
Net income1.1 bn234.0 m-6.1 bn1.4 bn3.6 bn2.1 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn
Net income YoY+29.3%−78.1%−2,705.6%unavailable+156.9%−42.7%−46.0%+10.4%
Diluted EPS5.570.90-23.475.3214.087.904.214.78
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−83.8%−2,707.8%unavailable+164.7%−43.9%−46.7%+13.5%
net %18.0%3.5%-100.2%16.4%29.2%19.2%12.3%13.9%
Free cash flow325.0 m295.0 m159.0 m1.6 bn2.0 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
35.0 m USD
Financial debt
5.2 bn USD
Net debt
5.2 bn USD
Equity
11.2 bn USD
Total assets
20.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.46x
Current ratio
0.54x
ROE
11.5%
ROA
6.3%
FCF margin
16.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
10.9 bn
2024
9.2 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
2.9 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
4.7 bn ≈
2024
3.9 bn ≈
2025
3.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
355.0 m
2024
412.0 m
2025
376.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
2.5 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
770.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
425.0 m
2024
226.0 m
2025
-472.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
7.90
2024
4.21
2025
4.78

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
263.9 m
2024
267.4 m
2025
259.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.15
2024
1.20
2025
1.20

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.0 m
2024
42.0 m
2025
35.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
14.6 bn
2024
14.4 bn
2025
14.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
20.0 bn
2024
19.3 bn
2025
20.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.2 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
284.0 m
2024
600.0 m
2025
810.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
5.5 bn
2024
4.9 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
9.6 bn
2024
8.9 bn
2025
9.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
10.4 bn †
2024
10.3 bn †
2025
11.2 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
4.2 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.4 bn ≈
2024
1.4 bn ≈
2025
1.5 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-5.5 bn
2024
-2.5 bn
2025
-2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
1.4 bn
2024
-1.2 bn
2025
-762.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
307.0 m
2024
316.0 m
2025
308.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
426.0 m
2024
597.0 m
2025
307.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-28.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-30.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
13.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-30.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
6.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
31.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
9.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
23.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
34.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
2.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
2.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
246.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
143.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
18.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
21.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
20.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
22.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
8.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
2.26
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 33 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

67.78 USD

02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 18.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
18.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 17 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 23 Jul 2026
verified 1243derived 81

Score by group

  • Quality39
  • Growth0
  • Valuation40
  • Balance sheet18
  • Returns82

Estimated value range

Low
31.98
USD per share
Mid
42.91
USD per share
High
51.33
USD per share
Price: 67.78 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -36.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -57.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.77 – 161.35 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)97.42 – 161.35 (Mid 121.57)
    WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 2.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -24.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA29.61 – 58.04 (Mid 45.11)
    4 companies used · median multiple 5.0x · quartiles 3.6x – 6.1x
    APA, EOG, EQT, EXE
  • Peers: P/E34.34 – 44.63 (Mid 40.72)
    7 companies used · median multiple 11.5x · quartiles 9.7x – 12.6x
    APA, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, OXY, PR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)15.77 – 21.21 (Mid 18.09)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 33/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality5.3%17 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality9.4%14 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality246.3%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-10.6%0 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-30.2%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.0x20 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.4x15 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x17 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation19.2x13 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation7.0x20 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation12.1%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.9%70 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns14.2%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet18/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns82/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation40/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.7%; net margin 9.4%; ROE 8.4%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.

The estimated value range is 31.98–51.33 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 42.91 USD, the price of 67.78 USD leaves a potential of -36.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -57.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 33/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 246.3%
  • FCF yield: 12.1%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 14.2%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 5.3%
  • Net margin: 9.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -10.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -30.2%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.0x
  • Interest coverage: 2.4x
  • Current ratio: 1.0x
  • P/E (TTM): 19.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 7.0x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.4 bn and 152.7 bn (within 8× of the company's); 74 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
19.2x
vertical median 11.9x
above median (+61.2%)
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
vertical median 6.1x
above median (+15.0%)
P/S
1.9x
vertical median 3.1x
below median (−37.6%)
P/B
1.6x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+10.9%)
ROE
8.4%
vertical median 13.1%
below median (−35.7%)
Net margin
9.4%
vertical median 21.5%
below median (−56.2%)
EBIT margin
9.7%
vertical median 32.9%
below median (−70.5%)
Revenue YoY
-2.7%
vertical median 7.8%
below median (−134.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.0x
vertical median 0.7x
above median (+39.2%)
Dividend yield
1.8%
vertical median 2.0%
below median (−11.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
EOGEog Resources, Inc.82.8 bn12.322.5%25.4%−4.5%+46% / +28%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation60.7 bn9.118.9%33.7%−1.9%+45% / +3%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.55.9 bn38.93.8%8.6%+35.8%+31% / +29%
DVNDevon Energy Corp53.5 bn11.511.5%16.7%+7.8%+31% / +8%
EQTEqt Corporation34.3 bn13.010.9%28.4%+63.9%−10% / +37%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation20.7 bn7.814.6%19.8%+186.3%−27% / +11%
PRPermian Resources Corporation20.6 bn16.311.5%21.5%+1.3%+69% / +87%
OVVOvintiv Inc.18.7 bn19.28.4%9.4%−2.7%+81% / +39%
APAApa Corporation17.1 bn10.325.9%—unavailable+96% / +36%

1- and 3-year price returns: for OVV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
34.29
Total return -48% · Per year -48%
60.93
Total return -9% · Per year -9%
92.20
Total return 38% · Per year 38%
3 years
27.23
Total return -57% · Per year -24%
54.99
Total return -14% · Per year -5%
92.20
Total return 42% · Per year 12%
5 years
21.62
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
49.63
Total return -20% · Per year -4%
92.20
Total return 46% · Per year 8%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 13.75
  • Net margin± 9.62
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.69
  • Annual dilution± 0.81

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) is a North American producer of oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas, with assets in the Permian, Montney and other basins in the US and Canada. In the second quarter of 2026 the company averaged 615 MBOE/d, returned about 63% of Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow to shareholders and raised its 2026 production guidance to 630 - 645 MBOE/d with capital spending unchanged. Figures come from the 2025 annual report, the quarterly report and the July 2026 results release 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A multi-basin portfolio across the US and Canada that allows flexible allocation of capital between oil, liquids and gas.
  • A stronger balance sheet after debt reduction following the Anadarko sale, with leverage below the level at year-end 2025.
  • A clear policy of returning cash to shareholders, supported by buybacks and a steady dividend.

Weaknesses

  • Exposure to volatile oil and gas prices, which directly affects revenue and reserve values.
  • Reliance on third parties for transport, processing and drilling equipment, which can limit output when capacity is tight.
  • Currency exposure from Canadian operations, which can produce realized and unrealized losses.

Opportunities

  • Growth in oil output per share through capital optimisation without increasing the capital budget.
  • Integrating the NuVista assets in the Montney could bring operating synergies and lower unit costs.
  • LNG export contracts could widen access to higher-priced markets.

Threats

  • Low oil prices or wider regional differentials could compress margins and cash flow.
  • Environmental rules and energy transition pressure could raise costs or restrict exploration areas.
  • Trade tariffs and geopolitical conflicts could add volatility and the risk of a global recession.

Risks

  • Prolonged decline in commodity priceshigh

    If oil, liquids and gas prices fall significantly for an extended period, the company could defer drilling, curtail production and record asset impairments, as described in the annual report 1.

  • Accounting impairments of oil propertieshigh

    Impairment tests could produce large book losses if prices stay low, as happened in 2026 with the ceiling test charges 2.

  • Operational and reserve risksmedium

    Reserve estimates may prove inaccurate, and a lack of new discoveries or acquisitions could lead to declining reserves and production 1.

  • Regulation and litigationmedium

    The company is subject to extensive federal, state and local regulation and to litigation that may not be resolved in its favour 1.

  • Currency and tax exposurelow

    Swings in the US and Canadian dollar exchange rate, and changes in US and Canadian tax law, could affect financial results 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The company has a diversified portfolio and a stronger balance sheet after the 2026 asset sales and debt reduction, which could support high shareholder returns if prices stay favourable 23.
  • Raised production guidance with unchanged capital spending suggests growing output per share, which could support long-term value 3.
  • Integrating the Montney assets and expanding Permian drilling inventory could extend the portfolio's life and lower unit costs 23.

What would break the thesis

  • Revenue remains highly sensitive to commodity prices, and a prolonged decline could reduce cash flow and force further asset write-downs 12.
  • Reliance on third-party transport and infrastructure could limit sales volumes and keep regional price differentials unfavourable 1.
  • Recent asset sales and acquisitions could add operational complexity and delay the expected benefits of integration 12.

What to watch

  • Third-quarter guidance and whether full-year production and capital targets are metQ3 2026
  • Trend in Net Debt and Adjusted EBITDA leverage after debt reductionQ3 2026
  • Shareholder returns as a share of Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow versus the 50 - 100% framework2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Ovintiv aims to be a leading North American energy producer, focused on a multi-basin portfolio of oil and gas plays. Its strategy targets quality returns on capital, significant cash generation and durable cash returns to shareholders through the commodity cycle 12. Assets are located in the United States and Canada, and the company manages exposure through diversified derivatives and transport contracts 13.

In 2026 the company closed the NuVista acquisition, adding assets adjacent to its Alberta Montney position, and sold its Anadarko assets in Oklahoma for about 2.82 billion USD in proceeds, used to reduce debt and redeem senior notes 23. These transactions changed the production mix, which remains split roughly evenly between liquids and gas 2.

Segments

Anadarko and Uinta (divested)

Anadarko and Uinta assets were sold in 2025 and 2026, reducing the oil volumes in the portfolio but providing funds to cut debt 12. These sales reflect the company's emphasis on disciplined capital allocation 1.

Market context

The industry is cyclical, and producers with low costs and deep drilling inventories are better placed for periods of weak prices 13. Trade tariffs and sanctions can add economic uncertainty, which could affect demand and prices 1.

Trends

  • Commodity price volatilitymixed

    Swings in oil and gas prices directly affect revenue and reserve value, and a prolonged decline could lead to deferred drilling or accounting write-downs 1. When prices are high, cash flow rises and allows larger shareholder returns 3.

  • Energy transition and environmental rulesheadwind

    Climate policies and emissions rules could reduce demand for hydrocarbons and could raise operating costs or limit exploration areas 1. The company points to operational efficiency as a way to reduce emissions intensity 2.

  • Gas demand from power and LNG exportstailwind

    Rising power-sector demand and exports of North American liquefied natural gas could support gas prices 1. The Cedar LNG liquefaction agreement in British Columbia gives the company access to export markets 1.

  • Trade policy and tariffsheadwind

    Tariffs imposed by the US or Canada can change supply chains, equipment costs and trade flows, with mixed effects on margins 1. Exchange rate swings between the US and Canadian dollars can affect revenue 1.

Competitive position

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, and many rivals have greater resources than Ovintiv 1. Competition shows up in land and asset acquisitions, skilled labour and access to drilling equipment 1.

Ovintiv differentiates itself through its multi-basin portfolio, high-return drilling inventory and its approach to returning capital to shareholders 23.

  • North American oil and gas producers

    The sources describe sector-wide competition without naming specific firms, so no ticker is given.

  • Independent Permian producers

    Competition in the Permian comes from firms with larger financial resources, per the annual report risk discussion.

  • Montney gas producers

    In the Montney, competition for land and transport capacity is intense, according to the sources.

  • Energy service and transport companies

    The company depends on suppliers and pipeline capacity, creating reliance on third parties.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Current report26 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report01 Oct 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report27 Aug 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
  • Current report23 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report11 May 2026
  • Current report11 May 2026
    Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 May 2026
    Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report09 Apr 2026
    Termination of a material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ovintiv Inc. · 23 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Ovintiv Inc. · 23 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ovintiv Inc. · 23 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw