olivLaw · US equity research
W.W. Grainger, Inc. GWW
Wholesale-Durable Goods · SIC 5000 · Vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx)
Grainger is a broad line distributor of maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) products, with operations mainly in North America and Japan. In the second quarter of 2026 sales rose 10.3% to $5.0 billion, and management raised its full year 2026 outlook. The exit from the U.K. market, completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, remains an important element of the period.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) stock was 1,489.39 USD (+6.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 69.7 bn USD, P/E 32.7 on diluted EPS of 45.53 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.64%, beta 0.65, 52-week range 918.18–1,489.39 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 5.2 bn USD (+11.3% YoY), net income of 587.0 m USD (+99.7% YoY), diluted EPS 12.42 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 79.9
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1,259.38 – 1,434.20
- above the upper band · %B 1.32 · band width 13.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1,307.42 / 1,242.03
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 31.89 / 20.90
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.7% | −1.1% | +16.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +15.9% | −0.5% | +16.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +27.3% | +4.4% | +22.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +47.6% | +12.3% | +35.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +55.8% | +13.5% | +42.3 pp | +8.6% |
| 3 years | +94.0% | +76.4% | +17.6 pp | +64.3% |
| 5 years | +214.9% | +63.7% | +151.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Gross profit | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
| SG&A | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Operating income | 633.0 m | 672.0 m | 678.0 m | 511.0 m | 634.0 m | 793.0 m | 807.0 m | 828.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 82.0 m | 79.0 m | 84.0 m | 84.0 m | 83.0 m | 80.0 m | 85.0 m | 85.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 622.0 m | 657.0 m | 661.0 m | 492.0 m | 620.0 m | 775.0 m | 798.0 m | 814.0 m |
| Income tax | 125.0 m | 157.0 m | 153.0 m | 171.0 m | 141.0 m | 194.0 m | 198.0 m | 198.0 m |
| Net income | 475.0 m | 479.0 m | 482.0 m | 294.0 m | 451.0 m | 555.0 m | 570.0 m | 587.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 9.81 ≈ | 9.86 | 9.97 | 6.12 | 9.45 ≈ | 11.65 | 12.01 | 12.42 |
| Operating cash flow | 428.0 m | 646.0 m | 377.0 m ≈ | 597.0 m ≈ | 395.0 m | 739.0 m | 444.0 m ≈ | 661.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 258.0 m | 125.0 m | 175.0 m ≈ | 258.0 m ≈ | 126.0 m | 170.0 m | 111.0 m ≈ | 115.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 100.0 m | 115.0 m | 110.0 m ≈ | 133.0 m ≈ | 109.0 m | 108.0 m | 145.0 m ≈ | 145.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 462.0 m | 281.0 m | 226.0 m ≈ | 291.0 m ≈ | 247.0 m | 237.0 m | 224.0 m ≈ | 278.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 98 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 17.4, median 23.3, max 34.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.2 bn | 11.5 bn | 11.8 bn | 13.0 bn | 15.2 bn | 16.5 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.6% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +10.4% | +16.9% | +8.2% | +4.2% | +4.5% |
| Net income | 782.0 m | 849.0 m | 695.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | +33.4% | +8.6% | −18.1% | +50.1% | +48.3% | +18.2% | +4.4% | −10.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 13.73 | 15.32 | 12.82 | 19.84 | 30.06 | 36.23 | 38.71 | 35.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +37.0% | +11.6% | −16.3% | +54.8% | +51.5% | +20.5% | +6.8% | −8.6% |
| net % | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.5% |
| Free cash flow | 818.0 m | 821.0 m | 926.0 m | 682.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 585.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.5 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 9.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.60x
- Current ratio
- 2.83x
- ROE
- 43.5%
- ROA
- 19.2%
- FCF margin
- 7.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.8 bn | 13.0 bn | 15.2 bn | 16.5 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.6 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.4 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.2 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 169.0 m | 173.0 m | 206.0 m | 277.0 m | 311.0 m | 330.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | 93.0 m | 77.0 m | 81.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 947.0 m | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 192.0 m | 371.0 m | 533.0 m | 597.0 m | 595.0 m | 622.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 695.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 12.82 | 19.84 | 30.06 | 36.23 | 38.71 | 35.40 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 53.7 m | 52.2 m | 51.1 m | 50.1 m | 49.0 m | 48.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.94 | 6.39 | 6.78 | 7.30 | 8.01 | 8.83 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 585.0 m | 241.0 m | 325.0 m | 660.0 m | 1.0 bn | 585.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 391.0 m | 384.0 m | 371.0 m | 370.0 m | 355.0 m | 360.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 228.0 m | 238.0 m | 232.0 m | 234.0 m | 243.0 m | 265.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.3 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 35.0 m | 34.0 m | 499.0 m | 126.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 937.0 m | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 197.0 m | 255.0 m | 256.0 m | 445.0 m | 541.0 m | 684.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 926.0 m ≈ | 682.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -179.0 m | -226.0 m | -263.0 m | -422.0 m | -520.0 m | -645.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -726.0 m | -1.0 bn | -972.0 m | -1.3 bn | -1.2 bn | -1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 338.0 m | 357.0 m | 370.0 m | 392.0 m | 421.0 m | 467.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 601.0 m | 695.0 m | 603.0 m | 850.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 56 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 69.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation15
- Returns58
- Quality87
- Balance sheet90
- Growth42
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 481.52 – 1,143.59 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)481.52 – 761.55 (Mid 590.05)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 1.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA904.20 – 1,064.94 (Mid 970.71)4 companies used · median multiple 13.9x · quartiles 13.0x – 15.2xFERG, RS, TEL, WCC
- Peers: P/E901.33 – 1,143.59 (Mid 937.98)5 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 19.8x – 25.1xFERG, RS, SNX, TEL, WCC
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate116.04 – 156.05 (Mid 133.10)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 56/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 37.2% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.2% | 83 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 79.4% | 71 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.6% | 47 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.6% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 37.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 32.7x | 17 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 21.1x | 0 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.5% | 31 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 31 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 29.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet90/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth42/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns58/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation15/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.5%; net margin 11.2%; ROE 54.7%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 901.33–1,064.94 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 937.98 USD, the price of 1,489.39 USD leaves a potential of -37.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -58.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 37.2%
- Net margin: 11.2%
- FCF conversion: 79.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
- Interest coverage: 37.8x
- Current ratio: 2.6x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 29.5%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 32.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 21.1x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 8.0 bn and 512.5 bn (within 8× of the company's); 52 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | 69.7 bn | 32.7 | 54.7% | 11.2% | +4.5% | +56% / +94% |
| TELTe Connectivity PLC | 63.8 bn | 27.5 | 18.5% | 12.6% | +8.9% | −3% / +68% |
| FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc. | 48.1 bn | 25.1 | 32.8% | 6.3% | +3.8% | −1% / +45% |
| RSReliance, Inc. | 22.5 bn | 20.6 | 14.7% | 6.4% | +3.3% | +58% / +61% |
| SNXTd Synnex Corporation | 18.4 bn | 14.0 | 14.9% | 1.8% | +6.9% | +51% / +134% |
| GPCGenuine Parts Co | 17.4 bn | 481.8 | 0.7% | 0.1% | +3.5% | −3% / −5% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | 15.4 bn | 19.8 | 15.4% | 3.0% | +7.8% | +18% / +103% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GWW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 903.36 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 1,596.22 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 2,403.19 Total return 62% · Per year 62% |
| 3 years | 896.56 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 1,780.64 Total return 22% · Per year 7% | 2,940.68 Total return 100% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 889.81 Total return -38% · Per year -9% | 1,986.38 Total return 37% · Per year 7% | 3,598.39 Total return 147% · Per year 20% |
- Exit P/E± 445.16
- Net margin± 311.61
- Annual revenue growth± 253.08
- Annual dilution± 26.18
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Grainger is a broad line distributor of maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) products, with operations mainly in North America and Japan 13. In the second quarter of 2026 sales rose 10.3% to $5.0 billion, and management raised its full year 2026 outlook 3. The exit from the U.K. market, completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, remains an important element of the period 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- An advanced supply chain with automated distribution centers and fast delivery supports a solid competitive position.
- A broad base of customers and suppliers, with low dependence on any single supplier or customer.
- The combination of High-Touch and Endless Assortment models lets the company use its scale and assortment flexibly.
Weaknesses
- Operating and administrative costs can grow faster than sales, which lowers margins.
- The High-Touch segment grows more slowly than the online segment, and gross margin was slightly lower in 2025.
- Operations in several countries expose reported results to currency movements.
Opportunities
- Growth in e-commerce and wider online assortment could attract new customers, especially smaller and mid-size businesses.
- Inventory management services and advanced technology could strengthen relationships with large customers.
- If growth in the online segment continues, the company could achieve a higher operating margin.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and tariff policies can disrupt supply chains and raise costs.
- An industrial recession could reduce customer orders and increase pricing pressure.
- Competition from manufacturers, online retailers and regional distributors can limit margin expansion.
Risks
- Cost inflationhigh
Rising costs for products, labor and energy can make expenses grow faster than sales, affecting profitability 1.
- Supply chain disruptionshigh
Natural disasters, conflicts and transport strikes can disrupt deliveries and affect the ability to meet fast delivery commitments 1.
- Dependence on economic conditionsmedium
Industrial customers may delay purchases during economic slowdowns, which would reduce sales 12.
- Currency volatilitymedium
Movements in the yen, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar can affect reported results 1.
- Competition and technology changelow
Adapting quickly to e-commerce and artificial intelligence requires investment and has uncertain results 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in the Endless Assortment segment and cost control persist, the company could keep improving margins, as the second quarter of 2026 suggests 3.
- The raised 2026 outlook indicates that demand has remained solid and that operating cash flow has been strong 3.
- Scale, the supply chain and a broad customer base could offer an advantage during periods of economic uncertainty 12.
What would break the thesis
- If tariff tensions and transport costs persist, margins could be pressured, especially if not all costs can be passed on to customers 12.
- An industrial slowdown could reduce orders, and the High-Touch segment grows more slowly than the online segment 1.
- The 2026 results include non-recurring benefits such as tariff refunds, which may not repeat in later periods 3.
What to watch
- Delivery of the raised 2026 sales and adjusted EPS guidanceQ3 2026
- Gross margin trend and the effect of tariff refundsQ3 2026
- Growth of the Endless Assortment segment and MonotaRO2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
W.W. Grainger, Inc., incorporated in Illinois in 1928, is a broad line distributor of MRO products and services 1. The company serves more than 4.6 million customers worldwide, ranging from smaller businesses to large corporations, government entities and institutions 13. In 2025 the company exited the U.K. by selling the Cromwell business and closing Zoro U.K. 1.
Market context
Grainger operates in the fragmented MRO products market, competing with manufacturers, wholesale distributors, retailers and online businesses 1. Customers are sensitive to industrial activity, capital spending and demand, although the nondiscretionary nature of products provided some resilience in past downturns 12.
The macroeconomic environment remains volatile, with geopolitical tensions, shifting tariff policies and high fuel and transport costs 2. The company raised its outlook but continues to monitor the risk of a global or regional economic recession 23.
Trends
- Tariff policies and import costsmixed
Tariff changes can raise costs for imported products, but they can also bring refunds, as seen in the second quarter of 2026 13. If prices can be passed on to customers, the effect on margins could be limited 1.
- Growth of e-commercetailwind
Online platforms in the Endless Assortment segment are growing quickly, and the sector is evolving rapidly, which could favor companies with advanced technology 13.
- Fuel and transport costsheadwind
Higher energy, fuel and transport costs could pressure margins and reduce demand 12.
- Artificial intelligence and automationmixed
Adopting artificial intelligence and automation in warehouses and assortment could improve costs, but it involves investment and operational risks 1.
Competitive position
Grainger faces competition from manufacturers (including some of its own suppliers), wholesale distributors, retailers and online businesses, ranging from large distributors to small local firms 1. It differentiates itself through local availability, a broad product line, sales representatives and electronic technology 1.
Competitive pressure could force lower sales prices or limit the pass-through of costs, which would affect gross margin 1. The company responds with new operating initiatives and technology investment, with the risk of unexpected costs 1.
- Fastenal CompanyFAST
Distributor of industrial and MRO products with a store network, cited as a possible competitor in the sources reviewed
- MSC Industrial DirectMSM
MRO products distributor focused on services for industrial customers, mentioned as a rival in industrial distribution
- Regional and local wholesale distributors
Small and regional companies mentioned in the source as part of the fragmented competitive landscape
- General eCommerce platforms
Retailers and online businesses selling MRO products, cited as a growing category of competitors
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report08 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report01 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement10 Mar 2026
- Annual report19 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / W.W. Grainger, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / W.W. Grainger, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / W.W. Grainger, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.