olivLaw · US equity research
Fastenal Company FAST
Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply · SIC 5200 · Vertical: Industrials sector
Fastenal is a US distributor of industrial and maintenance products (fasteners, tools, safety), delivering to customers from dedicated locations and on-site vending. It matters now because daily sales grew 15.5% in the third quarter, on manufacturing demand and pricing.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Fastenal Company (FAST) stock was 53.21 USD (+1.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 61.0 bn USD, P/E 43.1 on diluted EPS of 1.24 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.80%, beta 0.63, 52-week range 39.15–53.21 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.5 bn USD (+15.5% YoY), net income of 401.6 m USD (+19.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.35 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 50.24 – 53.30
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 5.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 50.58 / 47.35
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.58 / 0.52
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.0% | −1.1% | +6.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.4% | −0.5% | +6.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.0% | +4.4% | +14.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +32.6% | +12.3% | +20.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +28.8% | +13.5% | +15.3 pp | +6.9% |
| 3 years | +78.0% | +76.4% | +1.5 pp | +52.2% |
| 5 years | +82.8% | +63.7% | +19.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Gross profit | 818.2 m | 883.9 m | 942.8 m | 965.8 m | 898.7 m | 982.9 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn |
| SG&A | 473.4 m | 490.0 m | 506.7 m | 524.3 m | 514.4 m | 535.3 m | 561.8 m | 573.9 m |
| Operating income | 344.8 m | 393.9 m | 436.1 m | 441.5 m | 384.3 m | 447.6 m | 501.8 m | 530.8 m |
| Interest expense | 1.7 m | 1.7 m | 2.2 m | 1.6 m | 900.0 k | 800.0 k | 1.2 m | 800.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 344.3 m | 393.1 m | 436.6 m | 440.6 m | 384.6 m | 448.3 m | 502.1 m | 531.2 m |
| Income tax | 82.2 m | 94.4 m | 106.3 m | 105.1 m | 90.6 m | 108.6 m | 119.3 m | 129.6 m |
| Net income | 262.1 m | 298.7 m | 330.3 m | 335.5 m | 294.0 m | 339.8 m | 382.8 m | 401.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.23 ≈ | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.26 ≈ | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Operating cash flow | 282.8 m | 262.2 m | 278.6 m | 386.9 m | 368.1 m | 378.4 m | 265.7 m | 421.6 m |
| Capex | 60.2 m | 55.7 m | 69.3 m | 60.3 m | 60.0 m | 58.9 m | 64.1 m | 74.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 223.4 m | 246.7 m | 252.5 m | 252.5 m | 252.6 m | 275.6 m | 275.4 m | 298.2 m |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 20.3 m | 30.0 m | 30.5 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 98 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 5.8, median 13.9, max 45.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +13.1% | +7.4% | +5.9% | +6.4% | +16.1% | +5.2% | +2.7% | +8.7% |
| Net income | 751.9 m | 790.9 m | 859.1 m | 925.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +30.0% | +5.2% | +8.6% | +7.7% | +17.5% | +6.3% | −0.4% | +9.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.31 | 1.38 | 1.49 | 1.60 | 1.89 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +31.0% | +5.3% | +8.0% | +7.4% | +18.1% | −46.6% | −1.0% | +9.0% |
| net % | 15.1% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 15.3% |
| Free cash flow | 497.9 m | 596.3 m | 933.7 m | 613.5 m | 767.2 m | 1.3 bn | 946.8 m | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 276.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 125.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -151.8 m USD
- Equity
- 3.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.03x
- Current ratio
- 4.85x
- ROE
- 33.3%
- ROA
- 25.8%
- FCF margin
- 12.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | 176.6 m | 177.3 m | 175.4 m | 179.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | — | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 9.7 m | 9.7 m | 14.3 m | 10.8 m | 7.3 m | 6.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 273.6 m | 282.8 m | 353.1 m | 367.0 m | 357.5 m | 396.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 859.1 m | 925.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.49 | 1.60 | 1.89 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.09 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 575.7 m | 577.1 m | 575.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.40 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.88 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 245.7 m | 236.2 m | 230.1 m | 221.3 m | 255.8 m | 276.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 769.4 m | 900.2 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 207.0 m | 233.1 m | 255.0 m | 264.1 m | 287.7 m | 316.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 40.0 m | 60.0 m | 201.8 m | 60.0 m | 75.0 m | 25.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 365.0 m | 330.0 m | 353.2 m | 200.0 m | 125.0 m | 100.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 612.7 m | 682.2 m | 789.8 m | 661.3 m | 687.1 m | 715.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.7 bn † | 3.0 bn † | 3.2 bn † | 3.3 bn † | 3.6 bn † | 3.9 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 570.8 m | 572.2 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Oct 2023verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 770.1 m | 941.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 168.1 m | 156.6 m | 173.8 m | 172.8 m | 226.5 m | 245.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 933.7 m ≈ | 613.5 m ≈ | 767.2 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 946.8 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -281.7 m | -148.5 m | -163.0 m | -161.2 m | -214.5 m | -231.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -754.4 m | -627.1 m | -774.9 m | -1.3 bn | -913.7 m | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 803.4 m | 643.7 m | 711.3 m | 1.0 bn | 893.3 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 52.0 m | 0 | 237.8 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 47 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 61.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation14
- Balance sheet83
- Quality82
- Growth23
- Returns31
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.50 – 39.56 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)13.92 – 21.08 (Mid 16.71)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 1.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA23.59 – 35.91 (Mid 28.27)19 companies used · median multiple 15.8x · quartiles 13.2x – 20.1xBA, CMI, CW, DOV, FIX, FTI, GD, HON, IR, J, LMT, LRCX, NDSN, RTX, SNA, TDG, WAB, XYL, ZBRA
- Peers: P/E25.04 – 39.56 (Mid 29.39)32 companies used · median multiple 23.8x · quartiles 20.3x – 32.0xBA, BALL, BKR, CAT, CMI, CW, DE, DHI, DOV, EME, ETN, FIX, FTI, GD, GM, HON, IR, ITW, JCI, LMT, LRCX, NDSN, NVT, PCAR, PH, PHM, RTX, SNA, TDG, WAB, XYL, ZBRA
- Dividend discount (DDM)11.50 – 15.46 (Mid 13.19)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 47/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 36.1% | 88 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.6% | 79 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 83.0% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.5% | 46 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -16.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 503.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 43.1x | 11 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 29.8x | 10 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.9% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.8% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 93.6% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth23/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns31/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation14/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
FASTENAL CO (FAST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.7%; net margin 15.6%; ROE 35.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
The estimated value range is 18.75–28.49 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.49 USD, the price of 53.21 USD leaves a potential of -57.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -136.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 36.1%
- Net margin: 15.6%
- FCF conversion: 83.0%
- Interest coverage: 503.9x
- Current ratio: 3.9x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -16.8%
- P/E (TTM): 43.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 29.8x
- FCF yield: 1.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Industrials sector · same sector · compared with 39 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 7.6 bn and 484.0 bn (within 8× of the company's); 324 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | 276.6 bn | 33.0 | 70.1% | 32.3% | +26.0% | +42% / +209% |
| CATCaterpillar Inc | 270.6 bn | 23.2 | 56.1% | 15.2% | +4.3% | +3% / +136% |
| RTXRtx Corporation | 267.8 bn | 32.2 | 12.6% | 8.8% | +9.7% | +13% / +144% |
| DEDeere & Co | 182.4 bn | 37.6 | 18.3% | 10.2% | −11.7% | +46% / +86% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | 140.3 bn | 18.6 | — | 8.1% | +34.5% | −6% / −24% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | 137.5 bn | 21.1 | 80.2% | 8.2% | +5.6% | +30% / +33% |
| ETNEATON CORPORATION plc | 137.2 bn | 35.3 | 19.6% | 12.2% | +10.3% | +2% / +55% |
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | 114.7 bn | 32.0 | 25.1% | 17.0% | +8.3% | +6% / +110% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | 98.6 bn | 21.2 | 18.0% | 8.2% | +10.1% | +7% / +48% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | 87.5 bn | 52.6 | 17.8% | 4.5% | +20.3% | +25% / +208% |
| JCIJohnson Controls International PLC | 85.7 bn | 25.1 | 24.1% | 14.5% | +2.8% | +21% / +166% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc | 83.4 bn | 26.1 | 101.7% | 19.4% | +0.9% | +18% / +21% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | 78.0 bn | 20.6 | 6.1% | 2.1% | −1.3% | +26% / +192% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc | 72.5 bn | 10.9 | 36.0% | 21.0% | +7.8% | +13% / +18% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | 67.3 bn | 34.1 | — | 21.3% | +11.2% | −11% / +26% |
| CMICummins Inc. | 65.0 bn | 23.9 | 23.0% | 8.1% | −1.3% | −5% / +110% |
| FASTFastenal Co | 61.0 bn | 43.1 | 35.3% | 15.6% | +8.7% | +29% / +78% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | 55.9 bn | 20.2 | 13.7% | 9.5% | −15.5% | +1% / +16% |
| BKRBaker Hughes Company | 49.5 bn | 17.1 | 15.1% | 10.1% | −0.3% | −1% / +48% |
| WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 49.5 bn | 36.6 | 12.2% | 11.2% | +7.5% | +41% / +153% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | 45.5 bn | — | -14.3% | -7.9% | −3.3% | +1% / +7% |
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | 43.9 bn | 14.9 | 12.8% | 9.2% | −6.9% | −1% / +23% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 38.2 bn | 23.6 | 58.6% | 13.0% | +29.5% | +12% / +464% |
| AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc. | 34.5 bn | 175.8 | 6.2% | 6.2% | +33.5% | −21% / +85% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | 32.3 bn | 23.7 | 13.4% | 17.2% | +5.7% | +5% / +18% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FAST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 31.79 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 56.17 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 84.57 Total return 61% · Per year 61% |
| 3 years | 31.48 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 62.54 Total return 24% · Per year 7% | 103.29 Total return 102% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 31.18 Total return -34% · Per year -8% | 69.63 Total return 41% · Per year 7% | 126.16 Total return 151% · Per year 20% |
- Exit P/E± 15.63
- Net margin± 10.94
- Annual revenue growth± 8.90
- Annual dilution± 0.92
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 14 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (19 Oct 2026).
In brief
Fastenal is a US distributor of industrial and maintenance products (fasteners, tools, safety), delivering to customers from dedicated locations and on-site vending. It matters now because daily sales grew 15.5% in the third quarter 1, on manufacturing demand and pricing.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expansion with large and contract customers, where sales grow fastest 1.
- Growth in US industrial production and reshoring.
- Digital and vending solutions for new customers.
Threats
- A slowdown in industrial production would cut demand.
- Online competition on standard products.
- Fading of temporary margin effects (tariff refunds, rebates).
Risks
- Industrial cyclehigh
Sales depend on manufacturing and construction. A slowdown in production would quickly hit volumes, and growth of 15.5% 1 could slow.
- Tariffs and pricingmedium
Pricing added 2.4 percentage points to growth 1. If tariffs ease or demand stops accepting increases, the pricing contribution could vanish and margins would be affected.
- Margin qualitymedium
Part of the gross margin came from direct sourcing, rebates and tariff refunds, some with timing effects 1. Gross margin has already slipped to 44.8% 1.
- Large-customer concentrationmedium
The more growth comes from large contract customers, the harder price negotiations become and the greater the dependence on a few accounts.
- Slower vending rolloutlow
The 2026 FASTBin/FASTVend signing goal was lowered to 27,000–29,000 MEU 1, which may signal weaker demand or limited deployment capacity.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
- Industrial production slows and volumes fall.
- Prices can no longer be raised and the price/cost relationship weighs on margin.
- Online and large-distributor competition compresses gross margin.
- A high valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
What to watch
- Daily sales and gross margin in the Q4 reportQ4 2026
- FASTBin/FASTVend signings versus the 27,000–29,000 MEU goalQ4 2026
- Sales growth to manufacturing and constructionQ4 2026
- Tariff and pricing effect in 2027Q1 2027
- Annual report and site commentaryQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 14 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (19 Oct 2026).
The business
Fastenal sells fasteners and fixings (the category it started in), plus tools, safety equipment and consumables for factories, construction sites and service operations. The model rests on proximity: inventory at the customer's site, in vending machines (FASTVend) and managed bins (FASTBin), rather than occasional order delivery.
From 2025 the company reports sites, meaning customer locations where it holds inventory tailored to local demand, instead of branch and Onsite counts 2. In Q3 2026 there were, on a monthly average, 90,759 active sites, versus 98,823 a year earlier, so fewer but more concentrated on large customers 1.
Third-quarter net sales were 2.46 bn USD, with net income of 401.6 mn USD 1.
Segments
Direct fasteners and hardware
Products sourced directly from manufacturers and sold to industrial customers. They grew 16.8% and make up 21.0% of sales 1. They are the historical core of the business and the most exposed to tariffs.
Indirect fasteners and hardware
Fasteners and parts used as accessories or consumables, sold through channels and vending. They grew 7.6% and make up 9.3% of sales 1.
Large contract customers (Onsite, FASTBin, FASTVend)
Sites with more than 50 thousand USD of monthly spend rose to 3,288 from 2,771, and sales to them grew about 27.6% to 1.46 bn USD 1. Contract sales grew 18.8%, versus 7.8% outside contracts 1. Weighted FASTBin/FASTVend signings were 7,484 MEU, up 6.2%, but the 2026 goal was lowered to 27,000–29,000 MEU 1.
Market context
Industrial MRO (maintenance, repair, operations) distribution tracks industrial production and construction activity. In the third quarter, sales to manufacturing grew 17.2%, of which heavy manufacturing 20.2%, and nonresidential construction 12.0% 1.
Growth is also supported by pricing: it added 2.4 percentage points to sales growth 1. Part of the margin benefit came from direct sourcing, supplier rebates and tariff refunds, which need not repeat.
Trends
- Manufacturing and construction recoverytailwind
Sales to manufacturing grew 17.2% and to nonresidential construction 12.0% 1, the sixth straight quarter of growth for construction. If US industrial production stays solid, demand could continue.
- Tariffs and pricingmixed
Pricing contributed 2.4 percentage points to sales growth 1. Tariffs on fasteners and steel justify price increases, but the mix shift toward large customers and the price/cost relationship lowered gross margin to 44.8% from 45.3% 1, so the net effect is not purely favorable.
- Shift to large customers and contractstailwind
Sales to large sites grew about 27.6% 1 and contract sales 18.8% 1. The company is tilting its mix toward customers with deep relationships, which bring volume but also margin pressure.
- Digital and vendingmixed
Weighted FASTBin/FASTVend signings rose 6.2% to 7,484 MEU 1, but the annual goal was lowered to 27,000–29,000 MEU 1. Vending installation pace appears slower than planned.
Competitive position
Fastenal competes with general industrial distributors and online platforms. Its advantages are proximity (inventory at the customer), its logistics network and ties with large customers; the disadvantage is price competition on common items, where online platforms are aggressive.
Operating margin rose to 21.5% from 20.7% 1, showing pricing power and cost control. Inventory grew only 3.1% 1, far below sales, a sign of discipline.
- W.W. GraingerGWW
One of the largest US MRO distributors, with a broad range and a strong online channel.
- MSC Industrial DirectMSM
Distributor focused on machine shops and metalworking.
- Applied Industrial TechnologiesAIT
Distributor of industrial parts (bearings, drives, fluid power).
- Amazon (Business)AMZN
Online platform putting price pressure on standard consumables.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report19 Oct 2026
- Current report14 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)16 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report16 Jul 2026
- Current report14 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report29 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Apr 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report16 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Comunicat de rezultate Q3 2026 (anexa la Form 8-K) · SEC / Fastenal · 14 Oct 2026
- [2] Form 10-K 2025 · SEC / Fastenal · 05 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.