olivLaw · US equity research
Lam Research Corporation LRCX
Special Industry Machinery, NEC · SIC 3559 · Vertical: Special Industry Machinery, NEC (SIC 3559)
Lam Research is a global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment spanning deposition, etch and clean. Revenue in fiscal 2026 reached 23.23 billion USD, up 26.0%, supported by demand linked to artificial intelligence. In the quarter ended September 27, 2026, revenue was 8.22 billion USD.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) stock was 230.72 USD (+1.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 288.2 bn USD, P/E 34.4 on diluted EPS of 6.71 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.48%, beta 2.31, 52-week range 139.59–433.33 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 8.2 bn USD (+54.4% YoY), net income of 2.8 bn USD (+75.5% YoY), diluted EPS 2.19 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 202.18 – 332.68
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.22 · band width 48.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 291.15 / 284.33
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -19.56 / -16.86
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −33.6% | −2.0% | −31.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −27.4% | −2.2% | −25.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −16.3% | +4.3% | −20.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +34.8% | +10.6% | +24.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +43.1% | +10.5% | +32.6 pp | +19.4% |
| 3 years | +263.9% | +73.7% | +190.2 pp | +8.3% |
| 5 years | +285.3% | +61.7% | +223.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 27 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.7 bn | 8.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross profit | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.3 bn |
| Research & development | 494.9 m | 525.9 m | 580.2 m | 576.4 m | 573.3 m | 583.2 m | 642.9 m | 666.4 m |
| SG&A | 244.2 m | 226.0 m | 268.4 m | 279.3 m | 267.7 m | 280.3 m | 322.3 m | 348.7 m |
| Operating income | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 96.2 m ≈ | 97.3 m ≈ | 98.4 m | 101.6 m | 103.9 m ≈ | 116.3 m ≈ | 119.6 m | 122.1 m |
| Interest expense | 45.3 m | 45.2 m | 42.8 m | 42.5 m | 40.9 m | 39.3 m | 34.2 m | 36.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Income tax | 157.1 m | 206.1 m | 58.9 m | 290.5 m | 242.6 m | 186.1 m | 277.9 m | 559.1 m |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 0.92 | 1.03 | 1.35 ≈ | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.45 | 1.81 ≈ | 2.19 |
| Operating cash flow | 741.9 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn | 3.5 bn |
| Capex | 188.3 m ≈ | 288.1 m ≈ | 172.2 m | 185.1 m | 260.9 m ≈ | 331.6 m ≈ | 188.8 m | 257.7 m |
| Dividends paid | 297.6 m ≈ | 295.7 m ≈ | 295.2 m | 292.0 m | 327.5 m ≈ | 325.8 m ≈ | 325.3 m | 325.4 m |
| Share repurchases | 697.7 m ≈ | 435.3 m ≈ | 1.3 bn | 975.8 m | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 246.6 m | 1.0 bn |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 0.8, median 2.0, max 65.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.7 bn | 10.0 bn | 14.6 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.4 bn | 14.9 bn | 18.4 bn | 23.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −12.9% | +4.1% | +45.6% | +17.8% | +1.2% | −14.5% | +23.7% | +26.0% |
| Net income | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 7.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | −7.9% | +2.8% | +73.6% | +17.8% | −2.0% | −15.1% | +40.0% | +35.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 13.70 | 15.10 | 26.90 | 32.75 | 3.32 | 2.90 | 4.15 | 5.76 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +4.0% | +10.2% | +78.1% | +21.7% | −89.9% | −12.7% | +43.1% | +38.8% |
| net % | 22.7% | 22.4% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 25.9% | 25.7% | 29.1% | 31.3% |
| Free cash flow | 2.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 4.9 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 28 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 5.6 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 3.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- -1.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 12.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 23.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.30x
- Current ratio
- 2.63x
- ROE
- 65.1%
- ROA
- 32.4%
- FCF margin
- 21.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.6 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.4 bn | 14.9 bn | 18.4 bn | 23.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.8 bn | 9.4 bn | 9.7 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.5 bn | 11.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 6.8 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 9.0 bn | 11.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Research & development | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| SG&A | 829.9 m | 885.7 m | 832.8 m | 868.2 m | 981.7 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 4.5 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 307.2 m | 333.7 m | 342.4 m | 359.7 m | 386.3 m | 441.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 4.8 bn ≈ | 5.7 bn ≈ | 5.5 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 6.3 bn ≈ | 8.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 208.6 m | 184.8 m | 186.5 m | 185.2 m | 178.2 m | 156.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 6.0 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 462.3 m | 587.8 m | 598.3 m | 532.5 m | 599.9 m | 997.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 26.90 | 32.75 | 3.32 | 2.90 | 4.15 | 5.76 | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 145.3 m | 140.6 m | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.20 | 6.00 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 1.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.4 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 11.7 bn | 12.3 bn | 13.2 bn | 12.9 bn | 14.5 bn | 15.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 132.4 m | 101.9 m | 168.5 m | 138.5 m | 182.2 m | 269.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 15.9 bn | 17.2 bn | 18.8 bn | 18.7 bn | 21.3 bn | 23.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 829.7 m | 1.0 bn | 470.7 m | 614.0 m | 854.2 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 421.0 k | 501.3 m | 749.7 m | 147.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 6.6 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 9.9 bn | 10.9 bn | 10.6 bn | 10.2 bn | 11.5 bn | 11.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.0 bn † | 6.3 bn † | 8.2 bn † | 8.5 bn † | 9.9 bn † | 12.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.7 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 349.1 m | 546.0 m | 501.6 m | 396.7 m | 759.2 m | 966.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 3.2 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 4.7 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 73.3 m | 612.3 m | -534.6 m | -370.6 m | -708.1 m | -922.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.2 bn | -4.6 bn | -2.8 bn | -4.0 bn | -4.9 bn | -5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 727.0 m | 815.3 m | 907.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 69 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 288.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation21
- Returns55
- Quality89
- Balance sheet100
- Growth92
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 85.13 – 224.37 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)85.13 – 126.36 (Mid 101.23)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 6.7 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E140.90 – 224.37 (Mid 174.77)7 companies used · median multiple 26.0x · quartiles 21.0x – 33.4xACLS, ACMR, ASYS, CRCT, CVV, ERII, SOTK
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate13.67 – 18.38 (Mid 15.68)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 69/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 156.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 32.3% | 92 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 77.4% | 68 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.1% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 20.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 63.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 34.4x | 38 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 27.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.3% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.8% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 19.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth92/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality89/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns55/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION (LRCX). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 23.2 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 26.0%; net margin 32.3%; ROE 70.1%; net debt/EBITDA -0.7x.
The estimated value range is 113.01–175.36 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 138.00 USD, the price of 230.72 USD leaves a potential of -40.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -67.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 156.5%
- Net margin: 32.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 20.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.7x
- Interest coverage: 63.9x
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 19.9%
What contradicts it
- EV/EBITDA: 27.8x
- FCF yield: 2.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Special Industry Machinery, NEC (SIC 3559) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | 288.2 bn | 34.4 | 70.1% | 32.3% | +26.0% | +43% / +264% |
| ACLSAxcelis Technologies Inc | 2.8 bn | 30.9 | 8.9% | 10.7% | −17.6% | +11% / −26% |
| VECOVeeco Instruments Inc | 2.2 bn | 100.5 | 2.6% | 3.4% | −7.4% | +23% / +26% |
| CRCTCricut, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 20.9 | 25.9% | 12.7% | −0.5% | +87% / +29% |
| AZTAAzenta, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -7.7% | -20.0% | +3.6% | +10% / −31% |
| ACMRACM Research, Inc. | 629.9 m | 21.0 | 10.6% | 14.5% | +15.2% | +33% / +167% |
| ERIIEnergy Recovery, Inc. | 366.0 m | 26.0 | 8.6% | 12.7% | −6.9% | −50% / −62% |
| ASYSAmtech Systems, Inc. | 216.2 m | 46.7 | 4.8% | 4.9% | −21.6% | +57% / +60% |
| VELOVelo3D, Inc. | 181.5 m | — | -61.5% | -89.6% | +12.1% | +6% / −99% |
| SOTKSono Tek Corp | 71.0 m | 36.0 | 10.1% | 9.3% | +2.0% | +24% / −10% |
| TRTTrio-Tech International | 51.5 m | — | -0.1% | -0.1% | +71.6% | +16% / +103% |
| CVVCvd Equipment Corporation | 26.8 m | 2.7 | 32.7% | 62.0% | −4.1% | +10% / −19% |
| ASMLAsml Holding NV | — | — | 50.5% | 29.4% | +15.6% | +41% / +119% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LRCX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 145.09 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 255.86 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 384.51 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 156.98 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 309.91 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 509.01 Total return 123% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 169.84 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 375.37 Total return 66% · Per year 11% | 673.82 Total return 196% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 77.48
- Net margin± 54.23
- Annual revenue growth± 42.27
- Annual dilution± 4.56
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lam Research is a global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment spanning deposition, etch and clean. Revenue in fiscal 2026 reached 23.23 billion USD, up 26.0%, supported by demand linked to artificial intelligence 1. In the quarter ended September 27, 2026, revenue was 8.22 billion USD 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong position in deposition, etch and clean, with a large installed base that generates recurring support revenue.
- High gross margins and accelerating profitability in the period reviewed, supported by a favourable customer mix.
- Sustained investment in research and development, which helps keep access to new process technologies.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on a few regions, notably China and Taiwan, exposes the company to geopolitical and regulatory risk.
- Revenue is cyclical and can fall sharply when customers cut capacity investment.
- Personnel and research costs have risen with team expansion, which could weigh on margins if demand declines.
Opportunities
- Demand linked to artificial intelligence and advanced memory could support growth in new systems and services.
- The shift to 3D and gate-all-around architectures could increase the need for precise etch and deposition processes.
- Expanding the offer for advanced packaging and HBM integration could open new revenue segments.
Threats
- Export restrictions and tariffs may limit access to certain markets and raise production costs.
- State-financed competitors and customers building their own equipment could reduce market share.
- A slowdown in chip demand could lead to delays or cancellations of equipment orders.
Risks
- Rapid technological changehigh
If new products are not delivered on time or do not meet required performance, the company could lose market share and hold obsolete inventory 1.
- Intense competitionhigh
Rivals with greater resources could offer comparable products or price cuts, which could hurt sales 1.
- Cyclicality of investmentmedium
Sudden shifts in customers' investment plans can affect demand and create fixed-cost sizing problems 1.
- Trade restrictions and export controlshigh
New restrictions or tariffs could limit sales in certain countries and raise component costs 12.
- Supply chainmedium
Supply chain disruptions or capacity limits could delay deliveries and affect revenue 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rapid growth in revenue and earnings per share shows that demand for advanced equipment remains strong, and AI investment could sustain this trend.
- A large share of services and the installed base offers a steadier revenue stream than new equipment sales alone.
- Guidance for the next quarter points to continued growth, which could confirm that the upward trend is sustained.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue depends heavily on chip investment, which is known to be cyclical, and a fall in demand could quickly reduce results.
- High exposure to China and export restrictions could limit growth and add long-term uncertainty.
- State-backed competitors and customers building their own equipment could reduce the company's share, especially if prices fall.
What to watch
- Financial results and delivery against guidance for the quarter ending December 27, 2026Q2 2027
- Trend in China's share of revenue and the effect of export restrictionsQ2 2027
- Dynamics of memory demand and foundry investment linked to AI2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Lam Research Corporation, incorporated in 1980 and headquartered in Fremont, California, designs and sells wafer fabrication equipment for the semiconductor industry 1. Its customers are memory, foundry and integrated device manufacturers producing NVM, DRAM and logic devices 1. The company also offers services for installed equipment, including spares, upgrades and the Reliant line of non-leading-edge products 1.
Revenue splits between new systems, which reached 14.89 billion USD in fiscal 2026, and customer support revenue of 8.35 billion USD 1. This structure gives the company an installed base that generates recurring revenue outside the investment cycles of its customers. Research and development represented 10.2% of revenue in fiscal 2026 1.
Segments
Deposition, etch and clean
The company has product lines for metal and dielectric deposition, conductor, dielectric and selective etch, and wet and dry cleaning 1. The ALTUS, SABRE, Akara, Kiyo and Vantex families are examples cited in the annual report 1. Each category addresses a different stage of chip manufacturing.
Market context
Trends
- Demand driven by artificial intelligencetailwind
AI infrastructure is boosting investment in advanced memory and logic, and quarterly revenue has grown rapidly 12. If demand stays high, it could support margins and volumes.
- Shift to 3D and gate-all-around architecturestailwind
The move from FinFET to gate-all-around and from planar to 3D memory raises the complexity of etch and deposition steps 1. This favours the company's advanced equipment, though it requires large research spending.
- Trade restrictions and tariffsheadwind
Export controls, tariffs and trade disputes could limit sales to certain customers and raise procurement costs 12. The company has already reported a margin impact from tariff-related spending on aluminium and steel 1.
- Industry consolidation and regional competitorsmixed
Emerging regional competitors, some state-backed, and customer consolidation could reduce market share 1. Some customers have set up affiliated entities that build similar equipment 1.
Competitive position
Lam Research operates in a competitive environment where rivals, some financed by foreign governments, have larger financial resources 1. They may offer broader product portfolios or discount aggressively 1. Once a customer commits to a competitor's equipment for a product line, it becomes harder for the company to win that customer back 1.
The company says it differentiates through research, learning from its installed base and integrated multi-product solutions 1. It also relies on close collaboration with customers and ecosystem partners 1. Competitive pressure could increase if new rivals gain access to critical technology 1.
- Applied MaterialsAMAT
Named indirectly in the context of competitive pressure in semiconductor equipment; the sources provided give no quantitative detail.
- Tokyo Electron
Japanese equipment maker that could compete in deposition and etch segments; the sources give no detail on its share.
- State-backed regional competitors
Companies in jurisdictions with a more favourable legal framework that can sell in areas restricted for Lam and compete on price.
- Customers with in-house equipment entities
Some customers have created affiliated entities that build similar equipment, which amounts to competition.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- СПБ Биржа расширила перечень торгуемых неоактивовKommersant (RU) · 02 Nov 2026 · RU
- СПБ Биржа запустит фьючерсы на акции NVIDIA, Alphabet и McDonald’sRBC News (RU business+politics) · 02 Nov 2026 · RU
- Фондовые индексы США выросли вслед за акциями ИИ-компанийInterfax Russia (RU) · 27 Oct 2026 · RU
- AT & T Inc . ( NYSE : T ) Stock Has Consensus Price Target of $29 . 05Surge — GDELT DOC · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Adobe Inc . $ADBE Shares Sold by Investment House LLCSurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Îngrijorările legate de costurile inteligenței artificiale aruncă o umbră asupra Wall Street-ului înaintea unei săptămâni tranzacționare cheie. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Procter & Gamble, Lam Research, Blackstone, Southwest & moreCNBC — Top News · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Two big reasons Micron and other chip stocks are falling on ThursdayMarketWatch — Top Stories · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Spotify Rallies on Subscribers; Hermès falls on China Sales | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- A Silicon Curtain Is Descending Across the Semiconductor WorldCEPA — Center for European Policy Analysis · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Lam Research ( LRCX ) Q1 2027 Earnings Call TranscriptSurge — GDELT DOC · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Viitoarele bursiere americane scad după rezultatele trimestriale ale Meta și Tesla - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Meta Platforms, Tesla, Lam Research, IBM & moreCNBC — Top News · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- Lam Research ( NASDAQ : LRCX ) Stock Falls 3 . 2 % – Should You Sell ?Surge — GDELT DOC · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Lam Research Vs. Applied Materials: Who Actually Helps ASML Share Prices Rise Higher?Yahoo Finance — News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Lam Research (LRCX) Benefits From Memory ExpansionYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Lam Research Legal Chief Sold $1.5 Million as AI Chip Demand Booms. Is the Signal Bearish?Yahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is Exploring Growth Opportunities in the Semiconductor Equipment MarketYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- Exploring Semiconductor Resurgence: Lam Research’s (LRCX) Role in Advanced Chip ManufacturingYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Lam Research Stock Outperforming the Nasdaq?Yahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report22 Oct 2026
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement24 Sept 2026
- Current report27 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Annual report07 Aug 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
- Current report22 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)04 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Lam Research Corporation · 07 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-27 · SEC / Lam Research Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lam Research Corporation · 21 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.