olivLaw · US equity research
Cummins Inc. CMI
Engines & Turbines · SIC 3510 · Vertical: Engines & Turbines (SIC 3510)
Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) is a global power leader with five reportable segments, from diesel engines and components to power generation systems. In fiscal 2025 net sales were 33.7 billion USD and net income attributable to the company was 2.8 billion USD. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues reached a record 9.5 billion USD and the company raised its full-year outlook.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock was 471.84 USD (−5.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 65.0 bn USD, P/E 23.9 on diluted EPS of 19.76 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.70%, beta 1.33, 52-week range 439.18–727.59 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 9.5 bn USD (+9.4% YoY), net income of 968.0 m USD (+4.3% YoY), diluted EPS 6.73 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 27.7
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 488.67 – 551.72
- below the lower band · %B -0.27 · band width 12.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 531.76 / 601.83
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -11.22 / -7.44
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.8% | −1.1% | −8.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −27.4% | −0.5% | −27.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −34.1% | +4.4% | −38.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.6% | +12.3% | −19.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.1% | +13.5% | −3.5 pp | −26.6% |
| 3 years | +108.9% | +76.4% | +32.5 pp | +55.7% |
| 5 years | +99.0% | +63.7% | +35.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.5 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.4 bn | 9.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.0 bn |
| Gross profit | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Research & development | 359.0 m | 356.0 m | 344.0 m | 357.0 m | 345.0 m | 350.0 m | 358.0 m | 385.0 m |
| SG&A | 807.0 m | 801.0 m | 771.0 m | 779.0 m | 789.0 m | 786.0 m | 845.0 m | 893.0 m |
| Operating income | 1.1 bn | 732.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 852.0 m | 813.0 m | 949.0 m | 1.3 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 266.0 m ≈ | 271.0 m | 269.0 m | 279.0 m ≈ | 277.0 m ≈ | 280.0 m | 282.0 m | 281.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 83.0 m | 89.0 m | 77.0 m | 87.0 m | 83.0 m | 82.0 m | 76.0 m | 80.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.0 bn | 662.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 830.0 m | 791.0 m | 934.0 m | 1.3 bn |
| Income tax | 200.0 m | 217.0 m | 267.0 m | 297.0 m | 271.0 m | 171.0 m | 254.0 m | 325.0 m |
| Net income | 843.0 m | 445.0 m | 850.0 m | 928.0 m | 559.0 m | 620.0 m | 680.0 m | 968.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 5.86 | 3.22 ≈ | 5.96 | 6.43 | 3.86 | 4.46 ≈ | 4.71 | 6.73 |
| Operating cash flow | 640.0 m ≈ | 1.4 bn | -3.0 m | 785.0 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn | 309.0 m | 1.5 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 259.0 m ≈ | 540.0 m | 162.0 m | 231.0 m ≈ | 298.0 m ≈ | 544.0 m | 189.0 m | 249.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 250.0 m ≈ | 250.0 m | 251.0 m | 251.0 m ≈ | 276.0 m ≈ | 277.0 m | 276.0 m | 276.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 ≈ | — | — | 243.0 m | 225.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 9.7, median 15.9, max 44.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.8 bn | 23.6 bn | 19.8 bn | 24.0 bn | 28.1 bn | 34.1 bn | 34.1 bn | 33.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +16.4% | −0.8% | −16.0% | +21.3% | +16.9% | +21.3% | +0.1% | −1.3% |
| Net income | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 840.0 m | 4.1 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | +120.0% | +3.7% | −20.1% | +19.5% | +0.9% | −61.5% | +384.3% | −27.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 13.15 | 14.48 | 12.01 | 14.61 | 15.12 | 5.15 | 28.37 | 20.50 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +120.3% | +10.1% | −17.1% | +21.6% | +3.5% | −65.9% | +450.9% | −27.7% |
| net % | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 11.9% | 8.8% |
| Free cash flow | 1.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 279.0 m | 2.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 94.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -2.8 bn USD
- Equity
- 13.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 34.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 1.76x
- ROE
- 23.9%
- ROA
- 9.0%
- FCF margin
- 7.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.8 bn | 24.0 bn | 28.1 bn | 34.1 bn | 34.1 bn | 33.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 14.9 bn | 18.3 bn | 21.4 bn | 25.8 bn | 25.7 bn | 25.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.9 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 906.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 673.0 m | 662.0 m | 784.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.9 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 3.7 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 4.8 bn ≈ | 5.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 100.0 m | 111.0 m | 199.0 m | 375.0 m | 370.0 m | 329.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 527.0 m | 587.0 m | 636.0 m | 786.0 m | 835.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 840.0 m | 4.1 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 12.01 | 14.61 | 15.12 | 5.15 | 28.37 | 20.50 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 149.0 m | 145.9 m | 142.3 m | 142.7 m | 139.1 m | 138.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.28 | 5.60 | 6.04 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 7.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 11.9 bn | 12.3 bn | 14.5 bn | 15.2 bn | 14.8 bn | 16.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.3 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 963.0 m | 900.0 m | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 22.6 bn | 23.7 bn | 30.3 bn | 32.0 bn | 31.5 bn | 34.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 62.0 m | 59.0 m | 573.0 m | 118.0 m | 660.0 m | 94.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 6.3 bn | 7.1 bn | 11.4 bn | 12.9 bn | 11.2 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 13.6 bn | 14.3 bn | 20.1 bn | 22.1 bn | 20.2 bn | 20.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 8.7 bn | 9.0 bn | 10.0 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.3 bn | 13.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 147.7 m | 142.4 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Feb 2022verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 528.0 m | 734.0 m | 916.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 279.0 m ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -719.0 m | -873.0 m | -4.2 bn | -1.6 bn | -1.8 bn | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 280.0 m | -2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | -2.2 bn | -173.0 m | -772.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 782.0 m | 809.0 m | 855.0 m | 921.0 m | 969.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 641.0 m | 1.4 bn | 374.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 65.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation37
- Returns55
- Quality91
- Balance sheet95
- Growth62
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 100.40 – 859.27 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)379.66 – 565.27 (Mid 452.11)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 3.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 8.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA246.14 – 859.27 (Mid 563.55)4 companies used · median multiple 14.9x · quartiles 6.2x – 23.0xBC, BWXT, CEPL, CYD
- Peers: P/E319.44 – 480.65 (Mid 372.85)3 companies used · median multiple 18.9x · quartiles 16.2x – 24.3xBWXT, CYD, PSIX
- Dividend discount (DDM)100.40 – 135.02 (Mid 115.16)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 25.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.1% | 67 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 119.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.2% | 52 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.7% | 71 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 12.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.9x | 28 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.4x | 24 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.2% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.7% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 32.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth62/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns55/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation37/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
CUMMINS INC. (CMI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 33.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.3%; net margin 8.1%; ROE 23.0%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.
The estimated value range is 282.79–522.96 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 412.48 USD, the price of 471.84 USD leaves a potential of -12.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -14.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 25.9%
- FCF conversion: 119.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 10.7%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.6x
- Interest coverage: 12.1x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 32.8%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 23.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 12.4x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.7%
Versus the vertical median
Engines & Turbines (SIC 3510) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMICummins Inc. | 65.0 bn | 23.9 | 23.0% | 8.1% | −1.3% | +10% / +109% |
| BWXTBwx Technologies, Inc. | 11.1 bn | 29.8 | 28.2% | 10.4% | +18.3% | −32% / +56% |
| BCBrunswick Corporation | 5.3 bn | — | -4.8% | -1.5% | +2.4% | +23% / +3% |
| PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc. | 915.0 m | 13.5 | 40.1% | 10.0% | +51.8% | −27% / +1,317% |
| CYDChina Yuchai International Limited | 807.0 m | 18.9 | 3.5% | 1.7% | +5.0% | −40% / +136% |
| CEPLCapstone Energy Plus, Inc. | 50.4 m | — | — | 3.5% | +23.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| WPRTWestport Fuel Systems Inc. | 33.0 m | — | -59.9% | -264.3% | −42.7% | −5% / −63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CMI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 294.92 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 520.97 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 784.14 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 296.36 Total return -33% · Per year -12% | 588.08 Total return 31% · Per year 9% | 970.43 Total return 113% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 297.81 Total return -30% · Per year -7% | 663.84 Total return 51% · Per year 9% | 1,200.97 Total return 169% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 147.02
- Net margin± 102.91
- Annual revenue growth± 83.09
- Annual dilution± 8.65
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) is a global power leader with five reportable segments, from diesel engines and components to power generation systems. In fiscal 2025 net sales were 33.7 billion USD and net income attributable to the company was 2.8 billion USD 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues reached a record 9.5 billion USD and the company raised its full-year outlook 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad product range, a global service network and strong positions in several segments, which helps it withstand weaker demand in any single industry or region 1.
- Power Systems and Distribution generate a large share of profit and showed solid growth in recent quarters 3.
- The company has a long history of partnerships with major truck and equipment manufacturers, which supports long-term customer relationships 1.
Weaknesses
- Results depend on the cycles of truck and construction markets, which can fall quickly when the economy slows 1.
- The Accelera segment is loss-making and required impairments and restructuring, showing how difficult zero-emission technologies are to make profitable at this stage 13.
- The company has incurred large costs related to emissions regulations in the past, including a settlement with US authorities, which shows the risk of compliance failures 1.
Opportunities
- Rising demand for backup power and data center infrastructure could open further growth opportunities for power generation segments 3.
- Development of Asian and other emerging markets could support sales, particularly in construction and power generation 3.
- Next-generation engine technologies and energy transition solutions could strengthen the company's long-term position if adopted widely 1.
Threats
- Changes in regulatory policy, including loosening emissions standards, could reduce demand for new products and for investments already made 1.
- Trade wars and tariffs could raise production costs and affect relationships with customers and suppliers 1.
- Competition from local manufacturers, especially in China, and from electrification specialists could compress margins 1.
Risks
- Emissions regulationhigh
An agreement with US environmental authorities imposed major costs in the past, and failure to meet its terms could lead to further penalties and litigation 1.
- Tariffs and international tradehigh
Trade measures, sanctions and export restrictions can affect demand, costs and access to the Chinese market, where the company has significant operations 1.
- Deregulation and new technology investmentsmedium
If regulations are relaxed, demand for new products could fall and investments made in anticipation could become hard to recover 1.
- Accelera segmentmedium
Losses and write-downs in the Accelera segment show the risk that electrification investments may not earn the expected return in the near term 13.
- Dependence on cyclical marketsmedium
Demand in truck and construction markets fluctuates with the economy, and a slowdown could significantly reduce sales and margins 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company reported a record quarter and raised its 2026 outlook, suggesting solid demand across several markets. If demand for data center power and the recovery in North American trucks hold, growth could continue 3.
- A portfolio spread across five segments and a global distribution network reduces reliance on any single market. The Power Systems segment has shown high margins and rapid growth 13.
- If emissions rules remain stable and demand for cleaner technologies grows, the company could benefit from its investments in next-generation engines and components 1.
What would break the thesis
- Results for 2025 were weaker than the prior year, and demand in the commercial truck segment declined. If this trend continues, profitability could be affected 1.
- The Accelera segment is loss-making, and its electrification strategy has not yet produced enough revenue to offset costs. If these losses persist, further impairments could follow 13.
- Uncertainty over tariffs and regulation could reduce demand and raise costs. The history of emissions-related litigation and penalties shows that compliance risks can be costly 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the raised 2026 revenue and EBITDA margin guidanceQ3 2026
- Trajectory of data center demand in the Power Systems segment2026
- Launch of X10 and X15 engines and production ramp for model year 20272027
- Results of the Accelera segment and any further impairmentsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Segments
Power Systems
The Power Systems segment offers standby and prime power generators, high-horsepower industrial engines and alternators. At 18 percent of consolidated net sales and 31 percent of consolidated EBITDA in fiscal 2025, it was the most profitable segment relative to its size 1. In the second quarter of 2026 its sales rose 19 percent to 2.3 billion USD and its EBITDA margin reached 24.5 percent, supported by data center demand 3.
Distribution
The Distribution segment is the company's primary sales, service and support channel. It accounted for 30 percent of consolidated net sales and 34 percent of consolidated EBITDA in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 its sales grew 9 percent to 3.3 billion USD, with North American revenues up 13 percent 3.
Market context
Demand in power generation, particularly for data centers, has been the main driver of recent growth, and the company reported robust orders for standby power in the second quarter of 2026 3. The North American truck market has improved and China contributed to higher construction revenues 3.
Net sales in the United States and Canada fell 3 percent in fiscal 2025 on weaker heavy and medium-duty truck demand, while international sales rose 2 percent 1. The company raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to a range of 10 to 13 percent as demand outpaced expectations in several key markets 3.
Trends
- Data center power demandtailwind
Strong orders for generators serving data centers have supported sales in the Power Systems and Distribution segments. If this demand holds, it could continue to offset weakness in other markets 3.
- Recovery in North American trucksmixed
The North American on-highway truck market shows signs of improvement, and the company pointed to clearer regulatory conditions in the US. A slower adoption pace or new delays could limit this recovery 3.
- Tariffs and trade measuresheadwind
Uncertainty over tariffs and trade disruptions can raise costs and reduce demand. The net financial impact of tariffs on 2025 profitability was immaterial, but future costs could become significant 1.
- Energy transition and emissions rulesmixed
Stricter emissions standards encourage investment in new technologies, but deregulation or lower incentives could delay demand and lead to write-downs of investments made in anticipation 1. The company is ramping its X10 and X15 engines gradually for model year 2027 3.
Competitive position
The company competes in every segment with several manufacturers and distributors, and products are differentiated on performance, price, total cost of ownership, fuel economy, emissions compliance, delivery speed, quality and customer support 1. In engines, local manufacturers are often dominant in their home markets, and independent competitors include Weichai Power, Yuchai and Deutz AG 1.
In generators and industrial engines, competition comes from manufacturers with their own engine products and from generator set assemblers. The Accelera segment competes with battery companies, powertrain component makers and vertically integrated OEMs 1.
- CaterpillarCAT
Named as a primary competitor of the Power Systems segment in generators and industrial engines.
- Robert Bosch GmbH
Named as a competitor in aftertreatment, turbochargers and fuel systems within the Components segment.
- BorgWarner Inc.BWA
Named as a competitor in both Components products and Accelera electrified technologies.
- Weichai Power
Independent engine maker competing especially in the Chinese market.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report05 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
- Annual report10 Feb 2026
- Current report05 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Nov 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Cummins Inc. · 10 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Cummins Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Cummins Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.