olivLaw · US equity research
Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXON
Ordnance & Accessories, (No Vehicles/Guided Missiles) · SIC 3480 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx)
Axon Enterprise is a technology company providing integrated hardware and software solutions to law enforcement and other public and private sector customers. Revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $2.8 billion, up 33.5%, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 35.3%. The company reported annual recurring revenue of $1.6 billion and strong net revenue retention.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock was 424.18 USD (+1.83% on the day), with market capitalisation 34.5 bn USD, P/E 175.8 on diluted EPS of 2.41 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.29, 52-week range 345.94–645.72 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 904.4 m USD (+35.3% YoY), net income of 29.4 m USD (−18.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 388.32 – 441.98
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.67 · band width 12.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 451.99 / 475.70
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -5.79 / -10.59
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.0% | −1.1% | +4.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −30.4% | −0.5% | −30.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.9% | +4.4% | +5.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −25.3% | +12.3% | −37.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −39.9% | +13.5% | −53.5 pp | +17.0% |
| 3 years | +95.2% | +76.4% | +18.8 pp | +44.2% |
| 5 years | +132.2% | +63.7% | +68.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 544.3 m | 575.1 m | 603.6 m | 668.5 m | 710.6 m | 796.7 m | 807.3 m | 904.4 m |
| Cost of revenue | 213.5 m | 229.3 m | 237.9 m | 264.8 m | 283.3 m | 335.4 m | 330.1 m | 357.9 m |
| Gross profit | 330.7 m | 345.8 m | 365.7 m | 403.7 m | 427.3 m | 461.3 m | 477.3 m | 546.4 m |
| Research & development | 114.5 m | 134.6 m | 151.0 m | 162.6 m | 176.7 m | 194.0 m | 189.0 m | 208.7 m |
| SG&A | 192.2 m | 227.0 m | 223.5 m | 242.2 m | 252.8 m | 317.4 m | 259.1 m | 291.0 m |
| Operating income | 24.1 m | -15.8 m | -8.8 m | -1.0 m | -2.1 m | -50.1 m | 29.2 m | 46.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 13.0 m ≈ | 17.7 m | 19.5 m | 17.2 m ≈ | 19.6 m ≈ | 26.9 m | 30.4 m | 32.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 1.6 m | 1.8 m | 7.8 m | 28.7 m | 28.9 m | 28.8 m | 28.6 m | 28.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 79.6 m | 84.6 m | 108.4 m | -38.9 m | 15.7 m | -66.2 m | 200.2 m | 32.7 m |
| Income tax | 12.5 m | -50.6 m | 20.4 m | -75.0 m | 17.9 m | -69.0 m | 30.9 m | 3.3 m |
| Net income | 67.0 m | 135.2 m | 88.0 m | 36.1 m | -2.2 m | 2.7 m | 169.3 m | 29.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.86 | 1.66 ≈ | 1.08 | 0.44 | -0.03 | 0.03 ≈ | 2.05 | 0.36 |
| Operating cash flow | 91.3 m ≈ | 250.2 m | 25.8 m | -91.7 m ≈ | 60.0 m ≈ | 217.2 m | -31.5 m | 20.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 26.5 m ≈ | 24.8 m | 24.9 m | 23.0 m ≈ | 26.6 m ≈ | 61.8 m | 23.1 m | 21.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 74 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 47.9, median 118.5, max 7,328.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 420.1 m | 530.9 m | 681.0 m | 863.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +22.2% | +26.4% | +28.3% | +26.8% | +37.5% | +31.5% | +33.4% | +33.5% |
| Net income | 29.2 m | 882.0 k | -1.7 m | -60.0 m | 146.9 m | 175.8 m | 377.0 m | 124.7 m |
| Net income YoY | +460.9% | −97.0% | −295.5% | unavailable | unavailable | +19.6% | +114.5% | −66.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.50 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.91 | 2.03 | 2.33 | 4.80 | 1.51 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +400.0% | −98.0% | −400.0% | unavailable | unavailable | +14.8% | +106.0% | −68.5% |
| net % | 7.0% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -7.0% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 18.1% | 4.5% |
| Free cash flow | 52.7 m | 49.7 m | -34.1 m | 74.6 m | 179.6 m | 129.6 m | 329.5 m | 75.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 1.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 609.6 m USD
- Equity
- 3.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.56x
- Current ratio
- 2.53x
- ROE
- 4.5%
- ROA
- 2.2%
- FCF margin
- 2.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 681.0 m | 863.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 264.7 m | 322.5 m | 461.0 m | 605.2 m | 841.1 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 416.3 m | 540.9 m | 726.1 m | 955.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 123.2 m | 194.0 m | 233.8 m | 303.7 m | 441.6 m | 684.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 307.3 m | 515.0 m | 399.3 m | 494.9 m | 741.2 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -14.2 m | -168.1 m | 93.0 m | 156.9 m | 58.5 m | -62.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 12.5 m | 18.7 m | 23.1 m | 19.3 m | 48.4 m | 83.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.7 m ≈ | -149.4 m ≈ | 116.1 m ≈ | 176.2 m ≈ | 107.0 m ≈ | 21.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | 7.0 m | 7.1 m | 94.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -6.3 m | -141.4 m | 196.2 m | 157.1 m | 381.5 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -4.6 m | -81.4 m | 49.3 m | -18.7 m | 4.5 m | -105.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.7 m | -60.0 m | 146.9 m | 175.8 m | 377.0 m | 124.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.03 | -0.91 | 2.03 | 2.33 | 4.80 | 1.51 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 61.8 m | 66.2 m | 72.5 m | 75.5 m | 78.6 m | 82.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 155.4 m | 356.3 m | 353.7 m | 598.5 m | 454.8 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 90.0 m | 108.7 m | 202.5 m | 269.9 m | 265.3 m | 341.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 982.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 105.5 m | 138.5 m | 169.8 m | 200.5 m | 247.3 m | 331.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 25.2 m | 43.6 m | 45.0 m | 57.9 m | 756.8 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 9.4 m | 15.5 m | 12.2 m | 19.5 m | 175.2 m | 197.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 24.1 m | 32.2 m | 59.9 m | 65.9 m | 72.0 m | 139.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | 0 | 680.3 m | 80.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 677.1 m | 0 | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 256.3 m | 418.5 m | 602.6 m | 761.5 m | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 404.8 m | 640.4 m | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 976.3 m † | 1.1 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 2.3 bn † | 3.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 38.5 m | 124.5 m | 235.4 m | 189.3 m | 408.3 m | 211.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 72.6 m | 49.9 m | 55.8 m | 59.6 m | 78.8 m | 136.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -34.1 m ≈ | 74.6 m ≈ | 179.6 m ≈ | 129.6 m ≈ | 329.5 m ≈ | 75.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -356.5 m | 252.6 m | -831.0 m | 12.5 m | -490.6 m | -724.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 299.3 m | -174.2 m | 598.1 m | 41.3 m | -45.4 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 24 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 34.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet20
- Quality36
- Valuation1
- Growth50
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.07 – 75.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)33.74 – 59.80 (Mid 43.82)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 229.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA6.07 – 7.83 (Mid 6.70)13 companies used · median multiple 12.6x · quartiles 12.2x – 13.3xACA, ACU, AZZ, CXT, EML, GFF, HLIO, HLMN, MAS, MWA, SNA, SSD, VMI
- Peers: P/E44.52 – 75.75 (Mid 56.64)28 companies used · median multiple 23.5x · quartiles 18.4x – 31.4xACA, ACU, AZZ, BALL, CCK, CIX, CR, CXT, EML, GFF, HLIO, MAS, MTRN, MWA, OFLX, PH, PKOH, PRLB, RECT, RGR, SLGN, SNA, SSD, SWBI, SWK, TRS, VMI, WTS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 24/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 0.4% | 14 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.2% | 55 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 66.8% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 32.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 8.5x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 175.8x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 267.3x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.4% | 5 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet20/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality36/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation1/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. (AXON). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 33.5%; net margin 6.2%; ROE 6.2%; net debt/EBITDA 8.5x.
The estimated value range is 33.74–59.80 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.82 USD, the price of 424.18 USD leaves a potential of -89.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -867.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 24/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 32.8%
- Current ratio: 2.1x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 0.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 8.5x
- Interest coverage: 0.2x
- P/E (TTM): 175.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 267.3x
- FCF yield: 0.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | 114.7 bn | 32.0 | 25.1% | 17.0% | +8.3% | +6% / +110% |
| AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc. | 34.5 bn | 175.8 | 6.2% | 6.2% | +33.5% | −40% / +95% |
| SNASnap-on Inc | 19.0 bn | 19.2 | 17.0% | 19.2% | unavailable | +8% / +34% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 17.6 bn | 21.2 | 9.4% | 5.5% | unavailable | +65% / +30% |
| BALLBall Corporation | 17.5 bn | 33.9 | 9.6% | 3.5% | +11.6% | +36% / +22% |
| MASMasco Corporation | 16.7 bn | 18.8 | — | 12.1% | −3.4% | +34% / +43% |
| CCKCrown Holdings, Inc. | 13.5 bn | 17.4 | 26.7% | 5.8% | +4.8% | +29% / +45% |
| CRCrane Company | 11.9 bn | 35.4 | 16.2% | 12.4% | +8.2% | +13% / +95% |
| SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 8.4 bn | 22.4 | 18.7% | 15.6% | +4.5% | +23% / +23% |
| VMIValmont Industries, Inc. | 8.1 bn | 15.9 | 30.8% | 12.1% | +0.7% | +2% / +92% |
| ACAArcosa, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 14.9 | 17.9% | 17.9% | +12.2% | +46% / +116% |
| GFFGriffon Corporation | 4.9 bn | 27.4 | 185.4% | 6.5% | −3.9% | +43% / +131% |
| SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc | 4.5 bn | 16.7 | 11.7% | 4.0% | +10.7% | +8% / +2% |
| AZZAZZ Inc. | 4.0 bn | 23.8 | 12.3% | 9.6% | +4.6% | +25% / +169% |
| MTRNMaterion Corporation | 3.9 bn | 38.3 | 10.5% | 4.6% | +6.0% | +53% / +66% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | 3.8 bn | 17.0 | 21.7% | 15.0% | +8.7% | −1% / +81% |
| CXTCrane Nxt, Co. | 3.5 bn | 27.3 | 10.5% | 7.1% | +11.4% | +9% / +20% |
| AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 2.8 bn | — | — | 0.2% | +12.0% | +27% / +18% |
| HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc. | 2.2 bn | 31.2 | 7.7% | 8.0% | unavailable | +24% / +74% |
| HLMNHillman Solutions Corp. | 1.7 bn | 68.6 | 2.0% | 1.5% | +5.4% | +0% / +20% |
| PRLBProto Labs, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 46.6 | 5.1% | 6.0% | +6.4% | +31% / +84% |
| TRSTrimas Corporation | 1.4 bn | 1.6 | 83.9% | 136.2% | +2.4% | +16% / +54% |
| RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. | 797.5 m | 49.4 | 5.7% | 2.7% | +1.9% | +66% / +14% |
| SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc. | 649.7 m | 26.5 | 6.6% | 4.4% | +10.4% | +66% / +5% |
| PKOHPark-Ohio Holdings Corp | 630.3 m | 23.1 | 7.0% | 1.6% | −3.4% | +103% / +91% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AXON from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 281.80 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 495.92 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 743.88 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 334.26 Total return -21% · Per year -8% | 655.85 Total return 55% · Per year 16% | 1,071.19 Total return 153% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 396.48 Total return -7% · Per year -1% | 867.37 Total return 104% · Per year 15% | 1,542.51 Total return 264% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 163.96
- Net margin± 114.77
- Annual revenue growth± 85.60
- Annual dilution± 9.64
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Axon Enterprise is a technology company providing integrated hardware and software solutions to law enforcement and other public and private sector customers. Revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $2.8 billion, up 33.5% 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 35.3% 2. The company reported annual recurring revenue of $1.6 billion and strong net revenue retention 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has an integrated ecosystem linking devices, data and software, which increases customer dependence.
- Recurring revenue and multi-year contracts provide visibility into future demand.
- A broad portfolio of patents and registered trademarks protects its market position.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on TASER device sales makes revenue sensitive to agency budget decisions.
- Personnel and stock-based compensation costs rose sharply and weighed on operating profit in some periods.
- Margins declined due to a mix shift toward lower-margin products and tariffs.
Opportunities
- Expansion into international and enterprise markets could diversify revenue sources.
- If AI features in premium subscriptions are widely adopted, recurring revenue could grow.
- Demand for drone and counter-drone solutions could support growth in Platform Solutions.
Threats
- A fragmented competitive field that includes large companies could limit price increases and market share gains.
- Trade restrictions and tariffs can affect supply chains and margins.
- Exposure to product liability litigation and public controversy could damage the company's reputation.
Risks
- Dependence on law enforcementhigh
Most customers are law enforcement agencies, and a drop in their purchases could materially affect operations.
- Concentration on TASER deviceshigh
TASER device sales are a large part of revenue, and lower acceptance of them could reduce growth prospects.
- Product liability and litigationmedium
Claims of personal injury or product defects could create litigation costs and damages.
- Tariffs and supply chainsmedium
Tariffs and supply disruptions can raise costs and reduce gross margins.
- Data securitymedium
A cloud security breach could undermine customer confidence and create legal exposure.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Revenue growth has stayed high across several consecutive quarters, and future contracted bookings grew strongly 23. If this momentum holds, the company could reduce its reliance on hardware.
- Annual recurring revenue and high net revenue retention suggest the ecosystem has solid traction 3.
- Expansion into drones, counter-drone systems and emergency communications could open new growth sources.
What would break the thesis
- High operating expenses and stock-based compensation could limit profitability if revenue slows.
- Dependence on public budgets and bidding processes can delay or reduce new contracts.
- Margins declined in 2025 due to product mix and tariffs, and that pressure could persist.
What to watch
- Revenue trends and future contracted bookings in the quarterly releaseQ3 2026
- Confirmation of the full-year revenue growth outlook2026
- Adjusted gross margin trend and the effect of tariffs and refundsQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Founded in 1993 and led by its founder, Axon describes its mission as protecting life, combining connected devices, cameras, drones, cloud evidence storage, real-time operations tools, all enhanced by artificial intelligence 1. Revenue comes from hardware sales, multi-year software subscriptions, professional services and extended warranties 1. Its headquarters is in Scottsdale, Arizona, where it performs final assembly 1. The United States accounted for 83% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1.
Since 2025 the company reports two segments: Software and Services, which includes recurring SaaS, professional services and on-premise licences, and Connected Devices, which covers TASER devices, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, and drone and counter-drone technologies 1. The ecosystem is built on the idea that each connected device enriches the data platform and the platform makes each device more useful 3.
Segments
Connected Devices
This segment includes TASER devices, Axon Body cameras, in-car camera systems and Platform Solutions, notably drones and counter-drone equipment 1. Platform Solutions grew strongly, which contributed to pressure on adjusted gross margin from product mix and tariffs 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment revenue grew 34.6% 2.
Market context
The market for law enforcement equipment and evidence management software is competitive and fragmented, with rivals selling cameras, evidence software and reporting systems 1. Axon's revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 indicates that demand from public agencies and international customers remains strong 2.
Longer contracts and new markets such as international and enterprise customers are becoming more relevant, and the company now shares bookings on a five-year normalised basis 3. Public budgets and open bidding processes can, however, delay contract awards 1.
Trends
- AI adoption in productstailwind
Artificial intelligence is built into Axon Evidence, Draft One and emergency communications systems. If these features meet customer needs, they could support growth in premium subscriptions 13.
- International expansionmixed
Revenue from other countries grew faster than U.S. revenue in recent quarters, and Europe and the Americas are expanding 12. Shorter contract terms in these regions could, however, reduce revenue visibility.
- Tariffs and marginsheadwind
Tariffs pressured adjusted gross margin in 2025, and tariff refunds received in 2026 temporarily helped quarterly results 12. If tariffs return, margin pressure could resume.
- Personnel and R&D costsheadwind
Higher headcount and AI investment raised operating expenses, moving the company from operating profit to a loss in 2025 and back to profit in the second quarter of 2026 12. High costs could limit profitability if revenue slows.
Competitive position
Competition includes body camera and video system makers such as Motorola Solutions, Genetec, Getac and Hikvision, along with digital evidence platforms such as OpenText, NiCE and Oracle 1. In counter-drone technology, competitors include large defence firms such as Leonardo DRS, Thales and Northrop Grumman 1.
The fragmented field of police software suggests Axon's advantage depends on integrating cameras, software and data rather than on a single product 1. If rivals extend their integration, pricing pressure could increase.
- Motorola SolutionsMSI
Major supplier of police software, emergency communications systems and cameras, with offerings overlapping Axon products in several categories.
- Genetec
Privately held company offering cameras, licence plate recognition systems and real-time operations platforms that compete with Axon.
- Flock Safety
Competitor in fixed licence plate recognition cameras and real-time operations platforms, as well as drones.
- Hexagon
Competitor in emergency system software and data analytics for law enforcement.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Axon Enterprise (AXON) Prices $1B of Zero-Coupon Notes. What is the Real Cost?Yahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Fund Capitalizes on Axon Enterprise (AXON) in AI-Related SelloffYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Axon Enterprise Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?Yahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Axon Enterprise vs. Booking Holdings: Evaluating Absolute Scale and Sequential Volatility in Quarterly Revenue TrendsYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 20 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 21 Sept 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report21 Sept 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Sept 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report01 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement16 Apr 2026
- Current report10 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Axon Enterprise, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Axon Enterprise, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Axon Enterprise, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.