olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Mueller Water Products, Inc. MWA

Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products · SIC 3490 · Vertical: Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 3490)

24.04USD+1.99% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Mueller Water Products makes valves, fire hydrants, meters and leak detection solutions for North American water systems, selling mainly to municipalities and distributors. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 the company reported higher sales and adjusted margins, while new residential construction remained constrained. Net sales in fiscal 2025 reached 1,429.7 million USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) stock was 24.04 USD (+1.99% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.8 bn USD, P/E 17.0 on diluted EPS of 1.41 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.15%, beta 0.89, 52-week range 21.24–30.37 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 395.9 m USD (+4.1% YoY), net income of 67.3 m USD (+28.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.43 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.8 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.0
Diluted EPS TTM 1.41 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.88%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.15%
DPS 12m 0.28
Beta (2y)
0.89
Volatility (1y) 25%
52-week range
21.2430.37

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
68.5
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
20.81 – 23.82
above the upper band · %B 1.07 · band width 13.5%
SMA 50 / 200
22.58 / 25.83
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.33 / 0.05
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+10.5%−1.1%+11.6 pp—
3 months−9.0%−0.5%−8.5 pp—
6 months−11.4%+4.4%−15.8 pp—
Year to date+0.9%+12.3%−11.4 pp—
1 year−6.9%+13.5%−20.4 pp+9.4%
3 years+84.6%+76.4%+8.2 pp+76.9%
5 years+42.6%+63.7%−21.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−30.1%
13 Apr 2026 → 30 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−42.3%
08 Nov 2021 → 26 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
395.9 m USD
+4.1% YoY
Net income
67.3 m USD
+28.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.43
+30.3% YoY
net / operating
17.0% / 20.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue348.2 m304.3 m364.3 m380.3 m380.8 m318.2 m384.4 m395.9 m
Cost of revenue237.3 m201.3 m236.3 m234.6 m240.8 m198.4 m239.9 m240.1 m
Gross profit110.9 m103.0 m128.0 m145.7 m140.0 m119.8 m144.5 m155.8 m
SG&A63.1 m53.9 m55.7 m71.0 m66.7 m59.8 m59.7 m64.0 m
Operating income28.4 m47.4 m69.9 m73.7 m69.6 m56.7 m80.4 m80.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation17.0 m11.1 m11.3 m11.7 m12.8 m12.1 m12.4 m12.6 m
Interest expense—1.6 m2.3 m1.7 m14.4 m1.0 m1.6 m700.0 k
Pre-tax income24.4 m45.8 m67.7 m72.0 m68.7 m55.7 m78.8 m79.8 m
Income tax14.4 m10.5 m16.4 m19.5 m16.1 m12.5 m19.7 m12.5 m
Net income10.0 m35.3 m51.3 m52.5 m52.6 m43.2 m59.1 m67.3 m
Diluted EPS0.06 ≈0.220.330.330.33 ≈0.270.380.43
Operating cash flow89.3 m54.1 m14.3 m ≈67.4 m ≈83.5 m61.2 m-12.8 m ≈105.8 m ≈
Capex19.4 m11.9 m9.2 m11.7 m14.5 m17.2 m14.7 m11.7 m ≈
Dividends paid10.0 m10.5 m10.5 m ≈10.4 m ≈10.5 m10.9 m11.0 m ≈10.9 m ≈
Share repurchases005.0 m ≈10.0 m ≈05.5 m0 ≈10.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 8 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 11.8, median 25.0, max 50.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue916.0 m968.0 m964.1 m1.1 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn
Revenue YoY+10.9%+5.7%−0.4%+15.2%+12.3%+2.3%+3.1%+8.7%
Net income105.6 m63.8 m72.0 m70.4 m76.6 m85.5 m115.9 m191.7 m
Net income YoY−14.4%−39.6%+12.9%−2.2%+8.8%+11.6%+35.6%+65.4%
Diluted EPS0.660.40unavailable0.440.480.550.741.22
Diluted EPS YoY−13.2%−39.4%unavailableunavailable+9.1%+14.6%+34.5%+64.9%
net %11.5%6.6%7.5%6.3%6.1%6.7%8.8%13.4%
Free cash flow77.4 m5.9 m72.6 m94.0 m-2.4 m61.4 m191.4 m172.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
431.5 m USD
Financial debt
451.6 m USD
Net debt
20.1 m USD
Equity
981.7 m USD
Total assets
1.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.46x
Current ratio
3.54x
ROE
21.4%
ROA
11.0%
FCF margin
12.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
896.2 m
2024
855.7 m
2025
913.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
379.5 m
2024
459.0 m
2025
516.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Research & development
2023
25.9 m
2024
20.5 m
2025
19.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

SG&A
2023
241.9 m
2024
245.2 m
2025
247.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Operating income
2023
127.4 m
2024
181.7 m
2025
260.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
62.5 m
2024
66.2 m
2025
46.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
189.9 m ≈
2024
247.9 m ≈
2025
307.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
18.4 m
2024
21.5 m
2025
20.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
109.0 m
2024
163.4 m
2025
254.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Income tax
2023
23.5 m
2024
47.5 m
2025
62.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Net income
2023
85.5 m
2024
115.9 m
2025
191.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.55
2024
0.74
2025
1.22

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
156.8 m
2024
156.9 m
2025
157.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.24
2024
0.26
2025
0.27

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
160.3 m
2024
309.9 m
2025
431.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Receivables
2023
217.1 m
2024
208.9 m
2025
211.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Inventories
2023
297.9 m
2024
301.7 m
2025
328.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Current assets
2023
706.8 m
2024
858.4 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
311.7 m
2024
318.8 m
2025
335.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
93.7 m
2024
80.7 m
2025
89.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
334.0 m
2024
309.7 m
2025
307.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Total assets
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
102.9 m
2024
109.9 m
2025
134.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
700.0 k
2024
800.0 k
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
446.7 m
2024
448.7 m
2025
450.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
218.8 m
2024
258.0 m
2025
290.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
793.5 m
2024
825.8 m
2025
857.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Equity
2023
711.5 m
2024
810.1 m
2025
981.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
109.0 m
2024
238.8 m
2025
219.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Capex
2023
47.6 m
2024
47.4 m
2025
47.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
61.4 m ≈
2024
191.4 m ≈
2025
172.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-42.1 m
2024
-47.2 m
2025
-47.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-48.8 m
2024
-46.0 m
2025
-58.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
38.1 m
2024
39.9 m
2025
41.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
10.0 m
2024
10.0 m
2025
15.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
43.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
65.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
35.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
21.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
64.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
36.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-10.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
37.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
22.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
19.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
15.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
21.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
21.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
16.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
19.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
24.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-42.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
16.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
4.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
237.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
58.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
179.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
80.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
70.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
50 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
138 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
50 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
139 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
3.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
11.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
12.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
20.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
4.49
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 77 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

24.04 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
11.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
21.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
15.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

36/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2975derived 176

Score by group

  • Balance sheet100
  • Valuation66
  • Quality89
  • Growth69
  • Returns53

Estimated value range

Low
30.73
USD per share
Mid
34.13
USD per share
High
40.51
USD per share
Price: 24.04 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 42.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 29.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.64 – 44.65 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)17.64 – 27.58 (Mid 21.43)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 193.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 9.9%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA30.73 – 40.51 (Mid 34.13)
    3 companies used · median multiple 15.7x · quartiles 14.1x – 18.6x
    CR, CXT, HLIO
  • Peers: P/E43.88 – 44.65 (Mid 44.12)
    3 companies used · median multiple 31.2x · quartiles 31.0x – 31.6x
    HLIO, PH, WTS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate3.52 – 4.74 (Mid 4.04)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 3490)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 77/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality21.6%100 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality15.0%86 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality80.8%73 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.7%39 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth36.5%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.1x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet16.2x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet4.6x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation17.0x100 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation11.0x36 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.8%60 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.6%22 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns24.1%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality89/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns53/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.7%; net margin 15.0%; ROE 21.7%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.

The estimated value range is 30.73–40.51 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 34.13 USD, the price of 24.04 USD leaves a potential of 42.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 29.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 77/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 21.6%
  • Net margin: 15.0%
  • FCF conversion: 80.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 36.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
  • Interest coverage: 16.2x
  • Current ratio: 4.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 17.0x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 24.1%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.6%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 3490) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
17.0x
vertical median 31.2x
below median (−45.5%)
EV/EBITDA
11.0x
vertical median 15.7x
below median (−29.8%)
P/S
2.5x
vertical median 2.2x
above median (+15.7%)
P/B
3.3x
vertical median 2.5x
above median (+32.1%)
ROE
21.7%
vertical median 10.5%
above median (+107.3%)
Net margin
15.0%
vertical median 8.0%
above median (+87.5%)
EBIT margin
19.4%
vertical median 12.7%
above median (+52.4%)
Revenue YoY
8.7%
vertical median 8.2%
above median (+6.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.1x
vertical median 1.1x
below median (−112.0%)
Dividend yield
1.2%
vertical median 0.8%
above median (+41.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PHParker-Hannifin Corporation114.7 bn32.025.1%17.0%+8.3%+6% / +110%
CRCrane Company11.9 bn35.416.2%12.4%+8.2%+13% / +95%
MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.3.8 bn17.021.7%15.0%+8.7%−7% / +85%
CXTCrane Nxt, Co.3.5 bn27.310.5%7.1%+11.4%+9% / +20%
HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.2.2 bn31.27.7%8.0%unavailable+24% / +74%
ZKINZk International Group Co., Ltd.10.6 m—-15.1%-5.6%−34.2%−25% / +77%
HIHOHighway Holdings Limited3.9 m—-27.3%-31.7%−35.2%−26% / −58%
WTSWatts Water Technologies Inc—30.918.8%14.3%+8.3%+28% / +84%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MWA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
14.32
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
25.32
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
38.14
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
13.94
Total return -39% · Per year -15%
27.73
Total return 19% · Per year 6%
45.86
Total return 96% · Per year 25%
5 years
13.57
Total return -39% · Per year -9%
30.37
Total return 33% · Per year 6%
55.14
Total return 138% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 6.93
  • Net margin± 4.85
  • Annual revenue growth± 3.98
  • Annual dilution± 0.41

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Mueller Water Products makes valves, fire hydrants, meters and leak detection solutions for North American water systems, selling mainly to municipalities and distributors. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 the company reported higher sales and adjusted margins, while new residential construction remained constrained 13. Net sales in fiscal 2025 reached 1,429.7 million USD 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The Mueller brand and a large installed base of hydrants and valves support durable relationships with distributors and utilities 1.
  • Margins have improved in recent quarters, and cash generation has remained solid 13.
  • The balance sheet holds substantial liquidity and has no debt maturities until 2029, giving flexibility 3.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on a few large distributors means pricing pressure or the loss of one partner could quickly affect results 1.
  • Pronounced construction seasonality makes the first quarters weak and hard to offset 1.
  • Newer technology products such as smart metering have a short market history and have grown more slowly than expected 1.

Opportunities

  • Replacement of ageing infrastructure and rising water rates could support long-term demand 1.
  • Domestic valve and brass production could gain demand if trade tensions grow 12.
  • Gradual adoption of automatic meters and leak detection could open new revenue 1.

Threats

  • Tariffs on steel and aluminium can reduce margins, especially on imported repair products 2.
  • High interest rates and weak housing affordability can delay new residential construction 1.
  • Municipal budgets under pressure could slow infrastructure projects if revenues fall 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on residential constructionmedium

    A significant part of sales depends on new construction, which is sensitive to interest rates and consumer confidence 1.

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    Two distributors accounted for a major share of sales, and losing either could affect results 1.

  • Trade tariffshigh

    Higher tariffs on imports can raise costs and compress margins, even if part of the effect is recovered through pricing 2.

  • Warranty and product defectsmedium

    Complex products can carry defects that lead to warranty costs, recalls and reputational damage 1.

  • Adoption of new technologieslow

    If utilities adopt smart meters and leak detection slowly, investments in these products could take longer to pay off 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If adjusted margins keep rising, the company could convert volume growth into higher profit more efficiently 3.
  • Ageing infrastructure and the need for replacement could support municipal demand over a long period 1.
  • A balance sheet without near-term debt maturities provides flexibility for investment and acquisitions 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If tariffs stay high, cost pressure could erode gains from price increases 2.
  • New residential construction could stay weak for longer, limiting volume growth 13.
  • Reliance on a few large distributors could weaken the company's negotiating position if they change strategy 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery of the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of 367 to 372 million USDnext 10-K
  • Effect of Section 232 tariffs on margins in the repair product linesQ4 2026
  • Trend in new residential construction and volumes in Water Management Solutions2027
  • Leadership change and the strategy of the new chief executivenext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE: MWA) manufactures and markets products used to transmit, distribute and measure water in North America 13. The business runs through two segments, Water Flow Solutions (iron gate valves, specialty valves and service brass products) and Water Management Solutions (fire hydrants, repair and installation, natural gas, metering, leak detection and pressure management) 1. The company says it has one of the largest installed bases of iron gate valves and fire hydrants in the United States, which has supported long-standing relationships with distributors and utilities 1.

Key customers are municipal utilities and water distributors, and a large part of sales depends on public spending on infrastructure replacement and on new residential construction 1. The company sells mainly through national and regional distributors, the two largest of which accounted for about 37% of gross sales in fiscal 2025 1. Sales are seasonal, lowest in the first two fiscal quarters, when weather limits construction 1.

The stated strategy includes modernising plants, such as the new brass foundry in Decatur, Illinois, growing sales through stronger customer relationships, and acquiring technologies that extend the portfolio 1. Paul McAndrew became President and Chief Executive Officer in 2026 1.

Segments

Water Management Solutions

The segment generated 604.8 million USD of net sales in fiscal 2025 and in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 grew sales by 10.3% on higher volumes and pricing 13. Tariffs on imported products weigh on margins, especially in repair lines 2.

Market context

Demand from municipal repair and replacement remains solid, supported by ageing infrastructure and rising water rates, but is moderated by municipal budget pressures 12. New residential construction, which made up about 25% to 30% of fiscal 2025 net sales, is still constrained by economic uncertainty, affordability and interest rates 1.

The North American water equipment market is competitive, and tariffs and raw material prices affect costs and margins 12. If residential construction picks up, volumes in the valve business could benefit, though this depends on interest rates and tariff policy 2.

Trends

  • Replacement of ageing infrastructuretailwind

    Demand to repair and replace old pipes and valves supports long-term sales, especially in urban areas 1.

  • Tariffs on steel and aluminium importsheadwind

    Higher Section 232 tariffs raise the cost of components and raw materials, and the company says it may partly recover these costs through pricing and supply chain actions 2.

  • Residential construction cyclemixed

    New construction remains constrained by interest rates and economic uncertainty, which could delay new water infrastructure projects if conditions do not change 13.

  • Plant modernisation and automationtailwind

    Investment in foundries and domestic production could lower costs and support margin growth if the expected efficiencies materialise 13.

Competitive position

The company says its valve and hydrant markets have a few competitors, many of them well-established firms with strong brand recognition, and competition is based on quality, price and availability 1. In US water metering, competition is intense and utilities adopt new technology slowly 1.

Competition from outside North America can intensify if the dollar strengthens or trade measures change, and North American producers may move operations to lower-cost countries 1.

  • Well-established US and Canadian competitors (not named in the source)

    The source describes several established competitors with strong brand recognition without naming them.

  • Producers outside North America

    Foreign competitors can gain share depending on exchange rates, shipping costs and trade measures.

  • Leading competitors in US water metering

    Competitors with strong market positions that could slow adoption of the company's newer products.

  • Producers relocating operations to lower-cost countries

    Cost relocation strategies could put pressure on prices in the North American market.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 09 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report04 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Exit or disposal costs · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report22 Oct 2026
    Other events
  • Current report13 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report18 Jun 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Quarterly report06 May 2026
  • Current report05 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report25 Feb 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report23 Feb 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Mueller Water Products, Inc. · 19 Nov 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Mueller Water Products, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Mueller Water Products, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.