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olivLaw · US equity research

Crane NXT, Co. CXT

Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products · SIC 3490 · Vertical: Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 3490)

61.62USD+2.63% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) is a global authentication, security and traceability technology company operating through two segments, Security and Authentication Technologies and Detection and Traceability Technologies (formerly CPI, expanded by the Antares Vision acquisition). Its relevance now comes from sales growth above 20% in the second quarter of 2026 and from management raising its adjusted EPS guidance, while acquisitions have reshaped the company's profile.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) stock was 61.62 USD (+2.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.5 bn USD, P/E 27.3 on diluted EPS of 2.26 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.15%, beta 1.16, 52-week range 36.13–64.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 497.1 m USD (+11.7% YoY), net income of 38.4 m USD (−24.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.66 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.5 bn USD
shares as of 31 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
27.3
Diluted EPS TTM 2.26 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.66%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.15%
DPS 12m 0.71
Beta (2y)
1.16
Volatility (1y) 38%
52-week range
36.1364.20

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
71.3
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
48.96 – 63.29
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.88 · band width 25.5%
SMA 50 / 200
51.65 / 47.98
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.79 / 2.42
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+25.3%−1.1%+26.4 pp—
3 months+17.7%−0.5%+18.1 pp—
6 months+35.0%+4.4%+30.6 pp—
Year to date+30.9%+12.3%+18.6 pp—
1 year−2.4%+13.5%−15.9 pp+5.6%
3 years+13.7%+76.4%−62.7 pp+80.9%
5 years+67.0%+63.7%+3.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−43.7%
05 Nov 2025 → 05 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−47.6%
08 Oct 2025 → 05 Jun 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
497.1 m USD
+11.7% YoY
Net income
38.4 m USD
−24.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.66
−24.1% YoY
net / operating
7.7% / 13.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue399.1 m330.3 m404.4 m445.1 m476.9 m387.7 m493.2 m497.1 m
Cost of revenue218.6 m190.1 m235.6 m252.5 m274.7 m231.8 m284.6 m299.2 m
SG&A102.3 m102.9 m113.6 m107.2 m116.6 m130.6 m136.3 m126.1 m
Operating income70.8 m37.3 m47.9 m81.9 m79.6 m22.2 m68.9 m65.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation23.4 m21.6 m27.1 m29.0 m28.9 m29.7 m38.8 m39.6 m
Interest expense—11.5 m16.4 m16.2 m—17.8 m21.0 m19.9 m
Pre-tax income61.0 m28.1 m32.8 m66.6 m53.5 m9.2 m47.9 m49.2 m
Income tax3.4 m6.4 m7.8 m15.7 m6.0 m2.4 m11.7 m10.1 m
Net income57.6 m21.7 m24.9 m50.5 m50.9 m6.4 m35.4 m38.4 m
Diluted EPS1.00 ≈0.380.430.870.88 ≈0.110.610.66
Operating cash flow81.1 m-19.1 m62.8 m ≈92.0 m ≈105.8 m-14.0 m86.7 m ≈111.8 m ≈
Dividends paid9.2 m9.7 m9.8 m ≈9.7 m ≈9.8 m10.3 m10.4 m ≈10.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 4.6, median 12.0, max 45.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue3.3 bn3.1 bn2.9 bn3.4 bn3.4 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.7 bn
Revenue YoY+20.1%−8.1%−4.5%+16.0%−1.0%−58.8%+6.9%+11.4%
Net income335.6 m133.3 m181.0 m178.0 m204.9 m188.3 m184.1 m145.1 m
Net income YoY+95.3%−60.3%+35.8%−1.7%+15.1%−8.1%−2.2%−21.2%
Diluted EPS5.502.203.083.143.613.283.192.50
Diluted EPS YoY+93.7%−60.0%+40.0%+1.9%+15.0%−9.1%−2.7%−21.6%
net %10.0%4.3%6.2%5.2%6.1%13.5%12.4%8.8%
Free cash flow305.0 m329.5 m275.4 m258.4 m284.7 m245.2 m168.7 m198.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
233.8 m USD
Financial debt
1.1 bn USD
Net debt
905.7 m USD
Equity
1.2 bn USD
Total assets
3.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.91x
Current ratio
1.50x
ROE
12.5%
ROA
5.3%
FCF margin
12.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
737.2 m
2024
821.7 m
2025
952.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
654.1 m ≈
2024
665.1 m ≈
2025
703.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
42.8 m
2024
39.5 m
2025
46.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
366.8 m
2024
386.2 m
2025
440.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
286.8 m
2024
268.8 m
2025
246.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
77.6 m
2024
86.8 m
2025
106.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
364.4 m ≈
2024
355.6 m ≈
2025
353.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Mar 2023verified

Pre-tax income
2023
239.8 m
2024
226.4 m
2025
181.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
51.5 m
2024
42.3 m
2025
35.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
188.3 m
2024
184.1 m
2025
145.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.28
2024
3.19
2025
2.50

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
57.5 m
2024
57.8 m
2025
58.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.42
2024
0.64
2025
0.68

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
227.2 m
2024
165.8 m
2025
233.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
214.9 m
2024
265.9 m
2025
351.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
157.1 m
2024
144.8 m
2025
169.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
644.4 m
2024
642.5 m
2025
852.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
261.2 m
2024
272.3 m
2025
303.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
841.2 m
2024
956.6 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
308.9 m
2024
419.3 m
2025
557.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
106.5 m
2024
116.6 m
2025
132.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
4.6 m
2024
210.0 m
2025
135.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
640.3 m
2024
540.6 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
334.4 m
2024
562.4 m
2025
569.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
964.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
276.3 m
2024
214.1 m
2025
241.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
31.1 m
2024
45.4 m
2025
43.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
245.2 m ≈
2024
168.7 m ≈
2025
198.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-31.1 m
2024
-318.0 m
2025
-549.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-252.5 m
2024
62.1 m
2025
363.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
23.7 m
2024
36.6 m
2025
39.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Mar 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-21.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-10.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-4.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-21.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-11.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
17.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
41.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
20.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
12.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
13.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
10.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
8.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
31.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
290.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
43.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
247.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
188.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
77.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
66 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
69 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
97 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
4.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
27.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
27.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
12.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
19.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
14.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
1.93
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 42 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

61.62 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
27.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
12.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
10.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

36/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 3084derived 193

Score by group

  • Balance sheet32
  • Valuation61
  • Quality50
  • Growth0
  • Returns50

Estimated value range

Low
66.88
USD per share
Mid
70.44
USD per share
High
71.30
USD per share
Price: 61.62 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 14.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 12.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.94 – 101.17 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA66.88 – 101.17 (Mid 82.03)
    3 companies used · median multiple 15.7x · quartiles 13.3x – 18.6x
    CR, HLIO, MWA
  • Peers: P/E70.06 – 71.30 (Mid 70.44)
    3 companies used · median multiple 31.2x · quartiles 31.0x – 31.6x
    HLIO, PH, WTS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)8.94 – 12.02 (Mid 10.25)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 3490)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 42/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality8.5%33 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality7.1%29 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality188.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-21.1%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-11.5%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.0x28 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x42 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation27.3x80 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation12.5x22 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation7.0%87 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.2%16 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns16.6%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

CRANE NXT, CO. (CXT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.4%; net margin 7.1%; ROE 10.5%; net debt/EBITDA 3.0x.

The estimated value range is 66.88–71.30 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 70.44 USD, the price of 61.62 USD leaves a potential of 14.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 12.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 42/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 188.5%
  • P/E (TTM): 27.3x
  • FCF yield: 7.0%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 16.6%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 7.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -21.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -11.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.0x
  • EV/EBITDA: 12.5x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.2%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 3490) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
27.3x
vertical median 31.2x
below median (−12.5%)
EV/EBITDA
12.5x
vertical median 15.7x
below median (−20.1%)
P/S
1.9x
vertical median 2.5x
below median (−23.7%)
P/B
2.7x
vertical median 2.8x
at median
ROE
10.5%
vertical median 16.2%
below median (−35.3%)
Net margin
7.1%
vertical median 12.4%
below median (−43.0%)
EBIT margin
12.7%
vertical median 17.7%
below median (−27.8%)
Revenue YoY
11.4%
vertical median 8.2%
above median (+39.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
3.0x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+556.8%)
Dividend yield
1.2%
vertical median 0.8%
above median (+41.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PHParker-Hannifin Corporation114.7 bn32.025.1%17.0%+8.3%+6% / +110%
CRCrane Company11.9 bn35.416.2%12.4%+8.2%+13% / +95%
MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.3.8 bn17.021.7%15.0%+8.7%−1% / +81%
CXTCrane Nxt, Co.3.5 bn27.310.5%7.1%+11.4%−2% / +14%
HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.2.2 bn31.27.7%8.0%unavailable+24% / +74%
ZKINZk International Group Co., Ltd.10.6 m—-15.1%-5.6%−34.2%−25% / +77%
HIHOHighway Holdings Limited3.9 m—-27.3%-31.7%−35.2%−26% / −58%
WTSWatts Water Technologies Inc—30.918.8%14.3%+8.3%+28% / +84%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CXT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
33.23
Total return -45% · Per year -45%
59.05
Total return -3% · Per year -3%
89.35
Total return 46% · Per year 46%
3 years
26.39
Total return -55% · Per year -23%
53.29
Total return -10% · Per year -4%
89.35
Total return 49% · Per year 14%
5 years
20.95
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
48.10
Total return -17% · Per year -4%
89.35
Total return 52% · Per year 9%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 13.32
  • Net margin± 9.33
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.42
  • Annual dilution± 0.78

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

In brief

Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) is a global authentication, security and traceability technology company operating through two segments, Security and Authentication Technologies and Detection and Traceability Technologies (formerly CPI, expanded by the Antares Vision acquisition). Its relevance now comes from sales growth above 20% in the second quarter of 2026 and from management raising its adjusted EPS guidance, while acquisitions have reshaped the company's profile 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A portfolio of proprietary technology, with leading positions in authentication and product security, backed by patents and an established operating system.
  • Solid geographic diversification, with a significant share of sales made outside the United States.
  • Capacity to fund acquisitions through credit facilities, combined with operating cash flow that exceeded adjusted earnings in the second quarter of 2026.

Weaknesses

  • SAT segment margins declined in 2025 amid acquisition integration and restructuring costs.
  • The payment segment saw lower volumes, and demand in vending remains fragile.
  • Higher debt after acquisitions raised interest expense, which rose noticeably in the second quarter of 2026.

Opportunities

  • Integrating Antares Vision could open cross-selling in life sciences and food, where demand for traceability is growing.
  • Applying the CBS system could improve margins at newly acquired businesses if synergies materialise.
  • Demand for authentication and counterfeit protection could support long-term growth.

Threats

  • Trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions could reduce demand and raise material and freight costs.
  • Cyber-attacks and data compromise could damage reputation and disrupt operations.
  • Reliance on government and central bank contracts makes revenue lumpy and exposed to policy changes.

Risks

  • Acquisition integrationhigh

    Integrating DLR, OpSec and Antares Vision could face difficulties, with unplanned costs and synergies below expectations.

  • Debt and financing costshigh

    Higher debt used for acquisitions could limit financial flexibility if interest rates stay high or credit conditions worsen.

  • Geographic and trade exposuremedium

    International operations and trade policies could affect costs and sales, particularly in Mexico, where a facility operates under the maquiladora programme.

  • Information securitymedium

    A successful cyber-attack could disrupt production, billing and customer data, with financial and reputational consequences.

  • Supply chainlow

    Reliance on single or sole-source suppliers for critical components and rising material costs could delay production.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Sales growth in the second quarter of 2026 and the raised adjusted EPS guidance show that acquisition integration can deliver results, if the pace holds.
  • Leadership in authentication and security, supported by proprietary technology, could sustain long-term demand from governments and brands.
  • Adjusted free cash flow exceeding earnings in the second quarter could support the dividend and debt reduction, if conversion stays high.

What would break the thesis

  • Margins declined in the SAT and detection segments, and if cost pressures persist, profitability could stay below historical levels.
  • Weak vending volumes and organic decline in DTT suggest demand is not uniformly solid, and growth could depend heavily on acquisitions.
  • Interest costs rose sharply after acquisition financing, which could limit shareholder value if rates remain elevated.

What to watch

  • Delivery of the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and sales growth targetsQ3 2026
  • Margin trajectory of the DTT segment after Antares Vision integrationQ3 2026
  • Vending volumes and organic recovery in the payment business2027
  • Effects of tariffs and the Middle East conflict on costs and deliveriesnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

The business

Crane NXT supplies electronic equipment, software and authentication solutions designed to secure, detect and authenticate products, payments and identities for its customers. The company relies on proprietary technologies, including advanced micro-optics for securing physical products and digital authentication 1. It was separated from Crane Company on April 3, 2023 and trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CXT 1.

The strategy aims at organic growth through proprietary technology, combined with acquisitions in faster-growing adjacencies, supported by a balance sheet described as strong and by the Crane Business System 1. In 2026 the Antares Vision acquisition was completed with 100% ownership, extending the portfolio into inspection and traceability for life sciences and food and beverage 2.

Segments

Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT)

The SAT segment provides security solutions for banknotes, consumer goods and industrial products, along with brand protection and digital content protection on online platforms 1. Sales reached 810.1 million USD in 2025, up 32% year over year, while operating margin fell to 12% as DLR and OpSec were integrated 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the segment grew 17.5% year over year, with an operating margin of 17.2% 3.

Detection and Traceability Technologies (DTT)

The DTT segment, which includes Antares Vision, supplies inspection, detection and traceability systems for quality control and counterfeit prevention 23. In the second quarter of 2026 sales rose 26.1%, but organic sales declined and operating margin dropped to 16.5% 3. For full-year 2026 management expects segment sales growth in the low 20s percent 3.

Market context

Crane NXT's markets include governments, banknote issuers, financial institutions and consumer industries such as vending, retail and gaming 1. Demand is variable and depends on macroeconomic conditions, the trend toward cash use and customers' investment budgets 1.

The company cites trade and tariff pressures and the conflict in the Middle East, which raised freight costs and lengthened lead times without a material effect on the second quarter 12. Management's responses are pricing and productivity, and long-term effects depend on how these external factors evolve 12.

Trends

  • Integration of acquisitions and consolidation in authenticationmixed

    The DLR, OpSec and Antares Vision acquisitions broadened the portfolio, and management says applying the CBS system could support margin expansion 23. Integration brings restructuring costs and the risk that expected synergies fall short.

  • Solid demand for banknote and authentication technologytailwind

    The Currency business supported organic growth in 2026, and demand for security and authentication could stay high if counterfeiting trends continue 23.

  • Tariff and trade pressuresheadwind

    Tariffs and trade policies could reduce demand and raise material costs, although the company says it can largely offset them through pricing 1.

  • Volatile demand in vending and retailheadwind

    Lower vending volumes, affected by economic conditions and operator costs, could limit growth in the payment segment if the trend persists 12.

Competitive position

The company says it is a principal competitor in most of its markets, but competition varies by region and segment because each business faces different rivals 1. Stated advantages are proprietary technology, product differentiation and customer service 1.

In authentication and counterfeit protection, competition comes from specialised suppliers, and in inspection and traceability systems from global equipment makers, although the sources do not list these rivals in full 12. The company stresses that its edge depends on innovation and its patent portfolio 1.

  • Regional suppliers of payment and automation equipment

    Competitors in the payment and vending segment, identified in the company's sources only generically, without precise names.

  • Specialised banknote and security suppliers

    Competition for banknotes and product security, where contracts with central banks are discrete and contested.

  • Digital brand protection platforms

    Digital content protection solutions compete with software vendors and online monitoring services.

  • Makers of inspection and traceability systems

    Competition in inspection, detection and traceability, relevant after the Antares Vision acquisition, is not named in the source.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Crane NXT, Co. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Crane NXT, Co. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Crane NXT, Co. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.