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olivLaw · US equity research

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. SSD

Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware · SIC 3420 · Vertical: Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420)

205.16USD+4.22% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Simpson Manufacturing designs and manufactures structural connectors and solutions for wood and concrete construction, selling mainly in North America and Europe. In the third quarter of 2026 net sales reached 638.1 million USD, while the company faces weaker housing demand and higher steel costs amid trade tariffs.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD) stock was 205.16 USD (+4.22% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.4 bn USD, P/E 22.4 on diluted EPS of 9.15 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.57%, beta 0.86, 52-week range 158.00–210.06 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 671.1 m USD (+6.3% YoY), net income of 127.0 m USD (+22.7% YoY), diluted EPS 3.09 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
8.4 bn USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.4
Diluted EPS TTM 9.15 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.46%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.57%
DPS 12m 1.17
Beta (2y)
0.86
Volatility (1y) 29%
52-week range
158.00210.06

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
72.1
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
162.44 – 204.81
above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 23.1%
SMA 50 / 200
178.81 / 185.73
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
6.35 / 3.92
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+18.7%−1.1%+19.8 pp—
3 months+4.0%−0.5%+4.4 pp—
6 months+5.6%+4.4%+1.2 pp—
Year to date+27.1%+12.3%+14.7 pp—
1 year+18.3%+13.5%+4.8 pp+56.3%
3 years+43.0%+76.4%−33.4 pp+38.5%
5 years+71.6%+63.7%+8.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.5%
12 Feb 2026 → 02 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−45.0%
31 Dec 2021 → 20 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+11.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
671.1 m USD
+6.3% YoY
Net income
127.0 m USD
+22.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.09
+25.1% YoY
net / operating
18.9% / 25.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue587.2 m517.4 m538.9 m631.1 m623.5 m539.3 m588.0 m671.1 m
Cost of revenue312.1 m291.7 m288.3 m338.2 m334.3 m305.5 m322.1 m352.9 m
Gross profit275.1 m225.7 m250.6 m292.9 m289.3 m233.9 m265.9 m318.2 m
Operating income124.9 m76.8 m102.3 m140.2 m140.7 m74.8 m114.6 m169.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation21.7 m24.4 m19.2 m21.0 m23.3 m25.3 m25.7 m25.7 m
Pre-tax income126.5 m76.4 m104.5 m139.5 m143.8 m74.7 m116.3 m170.9 m
Income tax33.0 m21.0 m26.6 m35.9 m36.4 m18.5 m28.1 m43.8 m
Net income93.5 m55.4 m77.9 m103.5 m107.4 m56.2 m88.2 m127.0 m
Diluted EPS2.211.32 ≈1.852.472.581.35 ≈2.133.09
Operating cash flow103.3 m ≈115.8 m7.6 m125.2 m ≈170.2 m ≈155.7 m35.5 m212.9 m ≈
Capex106.5 m55.5 m50.2 m41.0 m36.4 m36.7 m17.6 m15.4 m ≈
Dividends paid11.8 m ≈11.8 m11.7 m11.8 m ≈12.1 m ≈12.0 m12.0 m11.9 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈50.0 m25.0 m35.0 m ≈30.0 m ≈30.0 m50.0 m48.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 51 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 9.8, median 22.2, max 29.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.1 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn1.6 bn2.1 bn2.2 bn2.2 bn2.3 bn
Revenue YoY+10.4%+5.4%+11.6%+24.1%+34.5%+4.6%+0.8%+4.5%
Net income126.6 m134.0 m187.0 m266.4 m334.0 m354.0 m322.2 m345.1 m
Net income YoY+36.7%+5.8%+39.6%+42.5%+25.4%+6.0%−9.0%+7.1%
Diluted EPS2.722.984.276.127.768.267.608.24
Diluted EPS YoY+40.2%+9.6%+43.3%+43.3%+26.8%+6.4%−8.0%+8.4%
net %11.7%11.8%14.7%16.9%15.8%16.0%14.4%14.8%
Free cash flow130.8 m173.0 m175.0 m107.6 m337.5 m338.2 m157.8 m297.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
384.1 m USD
Financial debt
315.0 m USD
Net debt
-69.1 m USD
Equity
2.0 bn USD
Total assets
3.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.16x
Current ratio
3.54x
ROE
18.0%
ROA
11.9%
FCF margin
12.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
24.8 m
2024
20.7 m
2025
11.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
475.1 m
2024
430.0 m
2025
458.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
74.7 m
2024
85.4 m
2025
90.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
549.9 m ≈
2024
515.4 m ≈
2025
548.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
4.5 m
2024
2.3 m
2025
-9.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
476.5 m
2024
434.0 m
2025
462.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
122.6 m
2024
111.8 m
2025
117.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
354.0 m
2024
322.2 m
2025
345.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
8.26
2024
7.60
2025
8.24

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
42.8 m
2024
42.4 m
2025
41.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.07
2024
1.11
2025
1.15

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
429.8 m
2024
239.4 m
2025
384.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
284.0 m
2024
284.4 m
2025
302.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
551.6 m
2024
593.2 m
2025
594.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
418.6 m
2024
531.7 m
2025
627.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
502.6 m
2024
512.4 m
2025
558.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
365.3 m
2024
375.1 m
2025
387.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
107.5 m
2024
101.0 m
2025
91.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
22.5 m
2024
22.5 m
2025
15.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
410.6 m
2024
388.1 m
2025
300.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
361.3 m
2024
366.3 m
2025
381.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.0 bn
2024
923.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.7 bn †
2024
1.8 bn †
2025
2.0 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
427.0 m
2024
338.2 m
2025
458.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
88.8 m
2024
180.4 m
2025
161.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
338.2 m ≈
2024
157.8 m ≈
2025
297.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-103.3 m
2024
-259.3 m
2025
-136.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-199.0 m
2024
-261.5 m
2025
-186.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
45.2 m
2024
46.5 m
2025
47.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
50.0 m
2024
100.0 m
2025
120.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
13.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
7.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
1.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
13.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
14.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
88.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
45.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
24.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
20.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
15.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
19.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
18.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-143.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
55.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
574.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
106.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
468.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
123.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
95.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
64 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
153 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
31 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
186 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
8.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
8.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
22.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
4.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
3.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
18.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
7.52
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

205.16 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 8.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
8.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
4.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
18.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
15.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2768derived 153

Score by group

  • Balance sheet83
  • Growth21
  • Quality81
  • Returns61
  • Valuation39

Estimated value range

Low
118.28
USD per share
Mid
185.98
USD per share
High
203.73
USD per share
Price: 205.16 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -9.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -10.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 89.78 – 235.35 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)154.71 – 235.35 (Mid 185.98)
    WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 475.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 7.7%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA89.78 – 196.60 (Mid 174.40)
    6 companies used · median multiple 11.7x · quartiles 5.9x – 13.2x
    ACU, EML, HLMN, LCUT, RECT, SNA
  • Peers: P/E118.28 – 203.73 (Mid 193.62)
    7 companies used · median multiple 21.2x · quartiles 12.9x – 22.3x
    ACU, CIX, EML, LCUT, RECT, SNA, SWK
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate15.11 – 20.32 (Mid 17.33)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality18.2%67 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality15.6%88 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality123.6%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.3%28 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth2.0%13 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.2x67 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet55.4x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.3x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation22.4x38 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.8x17 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation5.6%70 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.5%35 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns10.3%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth21/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns61/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.5%; net margin 15.6%; ROE 18.7%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.

The estimated value range is 118.28–203.73 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 185.98 USD, the price of 205.16 USD leaves a potential of -9.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -10.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 15.6%
  • FCF conversion: 123.6%
  • Interest coverage: 55.4x
  • Current ratio: 3.3x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 10.3%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.3%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.0%
  • EV/EBITDA: 13.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
22.4x
vertical median 21.3x
above median (+5.3%)
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
vertical median 11.7x
above median (+18.0%)
P/S
3.5x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+215.9%)
P/B
4.0x
vertical median 1.7x
above median (+135.4%)
ROE
18.7%
vertical median 11.7%
above median (+60.7%)
Net margin
15.6%
vertical median 5.2%
above median (+202.7%)
EBIT margin
20.6%
vertical median 8.3%
above median (+147.8%)
Revenue YoY
4.5%
vertical median 5.4%
below median (−16.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.2x
vertical median 0.4x
below median (−164.5%)
Dividend yield
0.6%
vertical median 1.9%
below median (−70.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SNASnap-on Inc19.0 bn19.217.0%19.2%unavailable+8% / +34%
SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.17.6 bn21.29.4%5.5%unavailable+65% / +30%
SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.8.4 bn22.418.7%15.6%+4.5%+18% / +43%
HLMNHillman Solutions Corp.1.7 bn68.62.0%1.5%+5.4%+0% / +20%
CIXCompx International Inc457.6 m23.116.3%14.0%+8.5%+65% / +58%
ACUAcme United Corp271.2 m29.78.4%4.6%+1.1%+91% / +97%
LCUTLifetime Brands, Inc.204.4 m6.215.8%4.8%−5.1%+133% / +38%
EMLThe Eastern Company173.4 m21.46.3%3.4%unavailable+48% / +59%
RECTRectitude Holdings Ltd18.4 m6.713.9%7.0%+22.0%−37% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for SSD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
121.10
Total return -41% · Per year -41%
214.22
Total return 5% · Per year 5%
322.84
Total return 58% · Per year 58%
3 years
114.72
Total return -43% · Per year -17%
228.61
Total return 13% · Per year 4%
378.68
Total return 87% · Per year 23%
5 years
108.68
Total return -45% · Per year -11%
243.96
Total return 22% · Per year 4%
444.18
Total return 121% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 57.15
  • Net margin± 40.01
  • Annual revenue growth± 33.22
  • Annual dilution± 3.36

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Simpson Manufacturing designs and manufactures structural connectors and solutions for wood and concrete construction, selling mainly in North America and Europe. In the third quarter of 2026 net sales reached 638.1 million USD 3, while the company faces weaker housing demand and higher steel costs amid trade tariffs.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has strong recognition of the Simpson Strong-Tie brand and a consolidated position in structural connectors, backed by a very broad product portfolio 1.
  • Investments in testing, engineering and software give it a specification advantage with architects and engineers 1.
  • High operating margins and service capabilities, including fast delivery, support its position as a preferred partner for customers 3.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on U.S. housing starts remains high, although the company has diversified its activity 1.
  • The company relies on steel, and its cost and availability can affect margins when prices cannot be fully passed on to customers 1.
  • Large customers account for a significant part of sales, and losing one of them would have a material effect on results 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding software and digital solutions could increase added value and customer loyalty 1.
  • Gaining share in fasteners, anchors and component products could offset weaker housing volumes 1.
  • New U.S. production facilities could reduce dependence on imports and improve service 1.

Threats

  • Trade tariffs could raise costs for imported fasteners and anchors and reduce margins 1.
  • Pressures on housing affordability and interest rates could prolong weak demand 3.
  • Competitors investing in software and artificial intelligence could erode the company's technology advantage 1.

Risks

  • Housing cyclicalityhigh

    Demand depends on U.S. housing starts, interest rates and consumer confidence, factors outside the company's control 1. If the market stays weak, sales and profit could decline 1.

  • Tariffs and trade policyhigh

    Tariffs on imported fasteners and anchors affect costs and margins, and future measures are uncertain 1. If tariffs rise, margin pressure could persist 1.

  • Steel costsmedium

    Steel is the main raw material and its price fluctuates cyclically 1. If costs rise faster than selling prices, margins could fall 3.

  • Customer concentrationmedium

    A small number of large customers and distributor consolidation can increase their bargaining power 1. Losing an important customer could significantly affect results 1.

  • Cybersecuritylow

    Information systems and customer data can be affected by cyberattacks or disruptions, with consequences for operations and reputation 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If residential construction demand stabilizes, its leading position in connectors and growth in fasteners and anchors could lift sales above the market 1.
  • Price increases and the ability to pass costs to customers could support margins, and the third-quarter operating margin remained high 3.
  • Investments in software, digital tools and local production could strengthen its competitive position and long-term customer loyalty 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If U.S. housing stays under pressure, volumes could keep declining and sales growth could slow 3.
  • Higher steel costs and trade tariffs could compress margins, especially if price increases do not fully offset the effect 1.
  • European sales fell in the third quarter and the segment's operating margin declined, showing vulnerability in other markets 3.

What to watch

  • Volume trends in North America and U.S. housing startsQ4 2026
  • Effect of the price increases planned for 2027 on sales and margin2027
  • Steel cost trends and availabilitynext 10-K
  • Pace of execution of the new share repurchase authorization2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., through its subsidiaries, notably Simpson Strong-Tie Company Inc., designs and manufactures structural solutions primarily for wood and concrete, intended to help customers build safer and stronger structures 1. The company has manufactured structural connectors since 1956 and says it benefits from the name recognition of the Simpson Strong-Tie brand in residential, light industrial and commercial markets 1. Besides products, Simpson offers engineering services, digital tools, design and estimating software and training for construction professionals 1.

The range includes over 16000 standard and custom products for wood construction, such as connectors, truss plates, fastening systems and lateral-force resisting systems, and over 3000 products for concrete, such as anchors, adhesives and repair products 1. Since 2025 the company has added more than 50 new products a year, including connectors and fasteners for mass timber and mechanical and adhesive anchors for concrete and masonry 1.

Simpson operates three geographic segments: North America, Europe and Asia/Pacific 1. Sales go through dealers, home centers, wood component manufacturers, OEM relationships, distributors and contractors 1. Manufacturing and warehouses near its markets support typical delivery within 24-48 hours 1.

Segments

North America

The North America segment covers operations primarily in the United States and Canada and generates most of the revenue, with a historic focus on wood construction products 1. In the third quarter of 2026 net sales rose 3.8% from the prior-year quarter to 502.0 million USD, mainly due to price increases and higher unit volumes 3.

Market context

The core market depends heavily on U.S. housing starts, which have decreased year over year since 2021 and continued to fall in 2025 1. For 2026 the company expects U.S. housing starts to be at 2025 levels 1. Total U.S. housing starts over the trailing twelve months, at 1344 thousand, point to a market still under pressure 3.

The Europe and Asia/Pacific markets are more diversified, and the products are also used in commercial and industrial construction, where demand depends less on single-family housing 1. European demand remains sensitive to volumes, while Simpson reports gains in fasteners and anchors 1.

Trends

  • Tariffs and trade policyheadwind

    Tariffs on imported fasteners and anchors have raised costs and weighed on gross margin in North America 1. The company raised prices to partly offset tariffs, but these increases do not cover tariffs announced after December 31, 2025 1.

  • Pricing and steel costsmixed

    Steel is the main raw material, and higher costs and tighter availability pressured margins in the third quarter of 2026 3. Management expects to take additional pricing actions in 2027 to address the evolving cost environment 3.

  • Production and digital investmenttailwind

    The new facilities in Columbus, Ohio and Gallatin, Tennessee allow local production and reduce reliance on outsourced components, which could improve service and efficiency 1. Software and digital tools are seen as a growth area 1.

  • Housing affordabilityheadwind

    Housing affordability pressures and financing conditions weigh on residential construction demand, the market most exposed for the company 3. If these pressures persist, volumes could stay weak 3.

Competitive position

Simpson describes itself as a category creator in structural products and says it has led the industry in wood connectors since 1956 1. Competition comes from regional and specialized companies as well as large U.S. and non-U.S. companies 1. Competitors are investing more in software and using artificial intelligence, which could intensify competition 1.

The company's competitive advantages include fast product availability, extensive testing in its own lab, relationships with engineers and code officials and partnerships with builders 1. Simpson aims to reduce exposure to housing cycles through investments in anchors, fasteners, software and expansion in Europe 1.

  • Regional and specialized companies

    Competitors by product line or geographic area, with no single company competing across all of Simpson's categories 1.

  • Large U.S. and non-U.S. companies

    Large companies or divisions of larger groups competing in one or more product categories or distribution channels 1.

  • Construction software providers

    Firms focused solely or primarily on software and applications, which may have greater resources for software development 1.

  • Wood component and equipment producers

    Competitors in equipment and technology solutions for component manufacturers 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. · 26 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.