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olivLaw · US equity research

The Eastern Company EML

Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware · SIC 3420 · Vertical: Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420)

27.21USD−5.55% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

The Eastern Company (EML) designs and manufactures engineered solutions for industrial markets, mainly commercial transportation and logistics, through three operating platforms plus a newly acquired fourth. Sales fell to 249.0 million USD in 2025 and dropped 12% to 61.8 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, while backlog rose 45% on acquired aerospace and defense orders.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, The Eastern Company (EML) stock was 27.21 USD (−5.55% on the day), with market capitalisation 163.7 m USD, P/E 20.3 on diluted EPS of 1.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.62%, beta 0.61, 52-week range 17.79–29.39 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 61.8 m USD (−11.9% YoY), net income of 5.6 m USD (+64.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.94 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
163.7 m USD
shares as of 04 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.3
Diluted EPS TTM 1.34 · TTM to 04 Jul 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.94%
TTM to 04 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
1.62%
DPS 12m 0.44
Beta (2y)
0.61
Volatility (1y) 39%
52-week range
17.7929.39

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
57.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
22.13 – 29.24
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.71 · band width 27.6%
SMA 50 / 200
25.54 / 22.84
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.90 / 0.53
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+8.7%−1.1%+9.8 pp—
3 months+8.5%−0.5%+8.9 pp—
6 months+20.6%+4.4%+16.2 pp—
Year to date+38.2%+12.3%+25.9 pp—
1 year+31.6%+13.5%+18.0 pp+40.0%
3 years+54.3%+76.4%−22.1 pp+26.8%
5 years+12.2%+63.7%−51.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−19.5%
01 Jul 2026 → 29 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−48.2%
17 Oct 2024 → 28 Jan 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+2.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 04 Jul 2026

Revenue
61.8 m USD
−11.9% YoY
Net income
5.6 m USD
+64.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.94
+67.9% YoY
net / operating
9.1% / 2.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue71.3 m66.7 m63.3 m70.2 m55.3 m57.5 m59.7 m61.8 m
Cost of revenue53.1 m51.3 m49.1 m53.8 m43.0 m44.4 m47.7 m49.1 m
Gross profit18.2 m15.4 m14.2 m16.4 m12.4 m13.1 m11.9 m12.8 m
Research & development1.1 m1.1 m1.1 m1.0 m995.8 k927.8 k1.0 m1.0 m
SG&A10.3 m11.2 m9.8 m12.2 m9.6 m10.0 m9.6 m10.1 m
Operating income6.8 m3.0 m3.2 m3.1 m1.7 m2.2 m1.3 m1.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation524.1 k ≈1.6 m1.5 m1.7 m ≈1.7 m ≈1.7 m1.7 m1.6 m ≈
Interest expense709.7 k671.7 k617.5 k636.3 k688.4 k665.2 k527.5 k581.3 k
Pre-tax income6.0 m2.1 m2.4 m2.6 m876.6 k1.3 m810.4 k7.5 m
Income tax1.3 m523.3 k507.2 k546.4 k297.7 k99.9 k170.3 k1.9 m
Net income-15.3 m1.3 m1.9 m3.4 m578.9 k1.2 m640.1 k5.6 m
Diluted EPS-2.460.21 ≈0.320.560.100.19 ≈0.110.94
Operating cash flow-2.9 m ≈11.0 m-1.8 m3.8 m ≈3.1 m ≈3.8 m3.5 m8.6 m ≈
Capex4.8 m ≈2.1 m849.4 k750.4 k ≈44.1 k ≈2.3 m867.3 k615.0 k ≈
Dividends paid682.0 k ≈679.3 k675.1 k672.9 k ≈668.3 k ≈664.8 k664.8 k662.3 k ≈
Share repurchases1.4 m ≈1.1 m1.4 m722.9 k ≈851.4 k ≈754.3 k422.4 k405.5 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 7.8, median 15.7, max 33.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year⚠ 20172018201920212022202320242026
Revenue204.2 m234.3 m251.7 m246.5 m279.3 m258.9 m272.8 m249.0 m
Revenue YoY—+14.7%+7.5%unavailable+13.3%−7.3%+5.4%unavailable
Net income5.0 m14.5 m13.3 m9.3 m12.3 m8.6 m-8.5 m7.1 m
Net income YoY—+187.5%−8.5%unavailable+31.6%−30.2%−199.4%unavailable
Diluted EPS0.802.312.121.491.971.37-1.371.17
Diluted EPS YoY—+188.7%−8.2%unavailable+32.2%−30.5%−200.0%unavailable
net %2.5%6.2%5.3%3.8%4.4%3.3%-3.1%2.9%
Free cash flow8.4 m9.3 m17.5 m-11.5 m4.1 m20.0 m9.7 m4.9 m

The series breaks before 2017: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jan 2026

Cash
7.4 m USD
Financial debt
33.9 m USD
Net debt
26.5 m USD
Equity
124.6 m USD
Total assets
216.7 m USD
Debt / equity
0.27x
Current ratio
3.59x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
3.3%
FCF margin
2.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
258.9 m
2024
272.8 m
2026
249.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
197.1 m
2024
205.5 m
2026
192.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
61.8 m
2024
67.3 m
2026
57.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
5.6 m
2024
4.9 m
2026
4.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
39.1 m
2024
42.2 m
2026
42.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
17.0 m
2024
20.1 m
2026
10.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
7.5 m
2024
5.9 m
2026
6.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
24.5 m ≈
2024
26.0 m ≈
2026
17.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
2.8 m
2024
2.7 m
2026
2.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
15.1 m
2024
17.1 m
2026
7.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
3.3 m
2024
3.9 m
2026
1.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
8.6 m
2024
-8.5 m
2026
7.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.37
2024
-1.37
2026
1.17

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
6.3 m
2024
6.2 m
2026
6.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.44
2024
0.44
2026
0.44

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
8.0 m
2024
14.0 m
2026
7.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
34.2 m
2024
35.5 m
2026
30.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
58.4 m
2024
55.2 m
2026
56.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
112.2 m
2024
115.6 m
2026
99.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
23.5 m
2024
27.5 m
2026
26.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
58.6 m
2024
58.5 m
2026
58.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
15.3 m
2024
8.8 m
2026
5.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Aug 2026verified

Total assets
2023
252.0 m
2024
235.3 m
2026
216.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
24.6 m
2024
19.7 m
2026
16.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
2.9 m
2024
3.6 m
2026
0

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
41.1 m
2024
38.6 m
2026
33.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
42.7 m
2024
44.8 m
2026
27.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
119.6 m
2024
114.6 m
2026
92.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
132.5 m †
2024
120.7 m †
2026
124.6 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
25.5 m
2024
19.4 m
2026
8.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
5.5 m
2024
9.7 m
2026
4.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
20.0 m ≈
2024
9.7 m ≈
2026
4.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-4.6 m
2024
-7.9 m
2026
-508.9 k

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-22.9 m
2024
-4.8 m
2026
-16.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
2.8 m
2024
2.7 m
2026
2.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
735.8 k
2024
3.1 m
2026
3.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 3Y
-6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
-5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
-5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
-4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
21.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
EBITDA margin
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
EBIT margin
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Net margin
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
FCF margin
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Returns

ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROA
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROIC
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROCE
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
32.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
17.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
26.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Interest coverage
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Quick ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
19.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Capital expenditure
3.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Free cash flow
15.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
FCF conversion
188.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Cash conversion
140.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
60 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Days inventory outstanding
119 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Days payables outstanding
50 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Cash conversion cycle
129 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
163.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
190.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
20.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Earnings yield
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/S
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBIT
27.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/Sales
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/FCF
10.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
FCF yield
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

Risk

Altman Z
3.11
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 36 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

27.21 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 163.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
163.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Net margin
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Coverage and freshness

36/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 04 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 04 Jul 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 11 Aug 2026
verified 2847derived 184

Score by group

  • Returns67
  • Growth0
  • Balance sheet34
  • Valuation51
  • Quality31

Estimated value range

Low
13.04
USD per share
Mid
24.63
USD per share
High
27.27
USD per share
Price: 27.21 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -9.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -10.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.78 – 55.50 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)32.35 – 55.50 (Mid 40.98)
    WACC 8.3% · starting FCFF 17.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -15.7%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA8.70 – 24.62 (Mid 21.57)
    6 companies used · median multiple 11.6x · quartiles 5.9x – 13.0x
    ACU, HLMN, LCUT, RECT, SNA, SSD
  • Peers: P/E17.37 – 29.92 (Mid 27.70)
    7 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 12.9x – 22.3x
    ACU, CIX, LCUT, RECT, SNA, SSD, SWK
  • Dividend discount (DDM)5.78 – 7.78 (Mid 6.63)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 36/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality3.4%0 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality3.4%13 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality188.3%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.3%0 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-5.1%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.0x17 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.8x20 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.8x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation20.3x63 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation14.1x0 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation9.2%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.1%44 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns17.6%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet34/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

THE EASTERN COMPANY (EML). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-04.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 249.0 m USD in 2026; net margin 3.4%; ROE 6.3%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.

The estimated value range is 13.04–27.27 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 24.63 USD, the price of 27.21 USD leaves a potential of -9.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -10.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 36/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 188.3%
  • Current ratio: 2.8x
  • FCF yield: 9.2%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 17.6%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 3.4%
  • Net margin: 3.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.3%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -5.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 2.0x
  • Interest coverage: 2.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 14.1x

Versus the vertical median

Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
20.3x
vertical median 21.2x
at median
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
vertical median 11.6x
above median (+21.7%)
P/S
0.7x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−41.1%)
P/B
1.3x
vertical median 2.1x
below median (−38.8%)
ROE
6.3%
vertical median 14.8%
below median (−57.4%)
Net margin
3.4%
vertical median 6.3%
below median (−45.3%)
EBIT margin
2.9%
vertical median 8.5%
below median (−65.4%)
Revenue YoY
—
vertical median 5.0%
Net debt/EBITDA
2.0x
vertical median -0.2x
above median
Dividend yield
1.6%
vertical median 2.2%
below median (−26.1%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SNASnap-on Inc19.0 bn19.217.0%19.2%unavailable+8% / +34%
SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.17.1 bn20.69.4%5.5%unavailable+61% / +27%
SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.8.1 bn21.718.7%15.6%+4.5%+19% / +19%
HLMNHillman Solutions Corp.1.7 bn66.62.0%1.5%+5.4%−3% / +17%
CIXCompx International Inc451.8 m22.816.3%14.0%+8.5%+63% / +56%
ACUAcme United Corp263.9 m28.98.4%4.6%+1.1%+86% / +91%
LCUTLifetime Brands, Inc.178.6 m5.415.8%4.8%−5.1%+104% / +21%
EMLThe Eastern Company163.7 m20.36.3%3.4%unavailable+32% / +54%
RECTRectitude Holdings Ltd18.4 m6.713.9%7.0%+22.0%−37% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for EML from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
15.06
Total return -43% · Per year -43%
26.71
Total return -0% · Per year -0%
40.34
Total return 50% · Per year 50%
3 years
12.97
Total return -49% · Per year -20%
26.03
Total return 0% · Per year 0%
43.39
Total return 65% · Per year 18%
5 years
11.16
Total return -54% · Per year -14%
25.36
Total return 1% · Per year 0%
46.67
Total return 82% · Per year 13%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 6.51
  • Net margin± 4.55
  • Annual revenue growth± 3.96
  • Annual dilution± 0.38

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

The Eastern Company (EML) designs and manufactures engineered solutions for industrial markets, mainly commercial transportation and logistics, through three operating platforms plus a newly acquired fourth. Sales fell to 249.0 million USD in 2025 and dropped 12% to 61.8 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, while backlog rose 45% on acquired aerospace and defense orders.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A diversified range of engineered products with broad customers and no excessive dependence on a single client.
  • Asian production capacity through wholly owned subsidiaries that lowers costs and supports fast delivery.
  • A decentralized holding-company model that allows acquisitions and integration of new operating platforms.

Weaknesses

  • Sales declined in 2025 and the first half of 2026, and gross margins were below the prior year.
  • Debt rose in the second quarter of 2026 to fund the acquisition, which limits financial flexibility.
  • Reliance on returnable packaging orders has exposed the company to sharp volume swings.

Opportunities

  • A recovery in heavy-truck production and in large customers could support backlog growth and a better product mix.
  • Aerospace and defense programs with long cycles could reduce dependence on commercial transportation.
  • Further acquisitions in industrial segments could widen the portfolio if integration succeeds.

Threats

  • Tariffs on steel, aluminum and nickel could raise costs and reduce margins if not passed on to customers.
  • Aggressively priced imports from Asia and Latin America could keep pressure on prices.
  • Integrating recent acquisitions could delay progress or divert resources from core operations.

Risks

  • Tariffs and raw material costshigh

    Metal tariffs and sanctions can raise production costs and reduce margins if they cannot be fully passed on to customers 1.

  • Competitive pressure from importshigh

    Low-priced imports could force price cuts and loss of market share, affecting profitability 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    The recent acquisition may not reach expected results or may carry unforeseen liabilities, and the bargain purchase gain could be revisited when values are finalized 23.

  • Currency exposuremedium

    International operations are exposed to exchange rate swings and to restrictions on repatriating earnings, which affect earnings and asset values 1.

  • Dependence on packaging ordersmedium

    Lower orders for returnable packaging have reduced sales, and if the trend persists revenue could stay below earlier levels 13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • A rise in backlog and a recovery in heavy-truck production could support better profitability in the second half of the year 3.
  • Entry into aerospace and defense could bring long-cycle programs and a more diversified revenue base 23.
  • If new contracts book at better margins, the company could gradually recover the margin pressure seen in 2025 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Sales continue to fall year over year, and gross margin and adjusted EBITDA dropped significantly in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • Debt rose after the acquisition, which could limit investment capacity and share repurchases 3.
  • Import pressure and metal tariffs could keep compressing margins in the near term 1.

What to watch

  • Gross margin and adjusted EBITDA trajectory after integrating Sungear and Crown PrecisionQ3 2026
  • Conversion of backlog into sales, especially for aerospace programsQ4 2026
  • Total debt level and repayment capacity after the acquisitionnext 10-K
  • Effects of steel and aluminum tariffs on cost in the annual report2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Incorporated in Connecticut in 1912, the company manages industrial businesses that design, manufacture and sell unique engineered solutions, with fourteen locations across North America and Asia 1. It has one reportable segment, Engineered Solutions, which includes Big 3 Precision, Eberhard Manufacturing (access and security hardware), Velvac (vision technology and heavy-truck aftermarket components) and Hallink Moulds, the latter reported within the Big 3 Mold business that was partly sold 1. On June 1, 2026 it acquired Sungear and Sinecera (Crown Precision), California makers of aerospace and defense components, creating a fourth platform 23.

Segments

Engineered Solutions

The single reportable segment supplies customized products for commercial transportation and logistics, including turnkey returnable packaging, access and security hardware, truck mirrors and latch and handle assemblies 1. In fiscal 2025 it accounted for all continuing operations, and the customer base is broad without high concentration 1.

Aerospace and defense (Sungear, Crown Precision)

The acquisition completed June 1, 2026 adds a new platform of precision components for aerospace and defense, bringing sales and positions in long-cycle programs 3. The company recorded a non-cash bargain purchase gain tied to the transaction 3.

Market context

The company serves industrial and transportation markets, where demand depends on heavy-truck production rates and logistics investment 13. US tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised raw material costs, and imports from Asia and Latin America with favorable currency rates and low-cost labor have put pressure on prices 1.

Trends

  • Heavy-truck production ratestailwind

    Rising heavy-truck build rates could support Eberhard and Velvac, and the return of Eberhard's largest customer for mechanical access systems contributed to backlog growth 3. If the recovery holds, margins could benefit from a better product mix.

  • Metal tariffsheadwind

    US tariffs on steel and aluminum and sanctions affecting nickel supply can raise raw material costs and reduce availability, directly affecting margins if not passed on to customers 1.

  • Demand for returnable packagingmixed

    Lower shipments of returnable transport packaging were the main driver of sales declines in 2025 and the first half of 2026, and the company says the unfavorably priced contracts are now behind it 13.

  • Expansion into aerospace and defensetailwind

    The Sungear and Crown Precision acquisition opens access to long-cycle aerospace and defense programs, which could diversify the revenue base if integration proceeds as planned 23.

Competitive position

The company faces global competition, notably from imports from Asia and Latin America that have created pricing pressure 1. It responds with high-quality custom products, internal engineering, cost-effective Asian subsidiaries and inventory for fast turnaround 1. The sources provided do not name specific competitors.

  • Importers from Asia and Latin America

    Competitors importing products with favorable exchange rates and low-cost labor put downward pressure on the company's prices 1.

  • Companies offering comparable products

    Firms offering comparable products or products for the same uses are described in the filing without being named 1.

  • Suppliers of new or updated products

    Competitors introducing new or updated products may force the company to adapt its range, according to its disclosed risk factors 1.

  • Returnable packaging and automotive component makers

    In packaging and vehicle component markets, competition and price cuts have affected volumes, according to company reports 13.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · SEC / The Eastern Company · 03 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-04 · SEC / The Eastern Company · 11 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Eastern Company · 11 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.