olivLaw · US equity research
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. SWBI
Ordnance & Accessories, (No Vehicles/Guided Missiles) · SIC 3480 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx)
Smith & Wesson Brands makes and designs firearms, including revolvers, pistols, rifles and Gemtech suppressors, and also offers manufacturing services to third parties. The company reported strong sales growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, but demand and inventory remain sensitive to regulation and political conditions. Net sales for fiscal 2026 were 523.8 million USD, and the quarter ended July 31, 2026 brought 112.6 million USD.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) stock was 14.34 USD (−1.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 643.0 m USD, P/E 35.0 on diluted EPS of 0.41 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.63%, beta 0.58, 52-week range 8.16–16.67 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 112.6 m USD (+32.3% YoY), net income of 2.6 m USD, diluted EPS 0.06 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 13.05 – 15.08
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 14.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.79 / 14.06
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / -0.05
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.2% | −1.1% | −0.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.4% | −0.5% | −1.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.6% | +4.4% | −7.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +45.3% | +12.3% | +33.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +50.8% | +13.5% | +37.2 pp | +11.1% |
| 3 years | +0.3% | +76.4% | −76.1 pp | +45.6% |
| 5 years | −34.8% | +63.7% | −98.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 129.7 m | 115.9 m | 140.8 m | 85.1 m | 124.7 m | 135.7 m | 178.4 m | 112.6 m |
| Cost of revenue | 95.2 m | 87.9 m | 100.2 m | 63.0 m | 94.3 m | 100.1 m | 125.3 m | 80.3 m |
| Gross profit | 34.5 m | 27.9 m | 40.5 m | 22.1 m | 30.3 m | 35.6 m | 53.1 m | 32.3 m |
| Research & development | 2.2 m | 2.9 m | 2.0 m | 3.0 m | 2.4 m | 2.4 m | 2.5 m | 2.6 m |
| Operating income | 7.5 m | 4.7 m | 13.1 m | -3.0 m | 4.1 m | 6.7 m | 21.3 m | 4.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.2 m ≈ | 7.6 m ≈ | 8.0 m | 8.4 m | 8.0 m ≈ | 7.2 m ≈ | 7.6 m | 7.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | 6.1 m | 3.0 m | 12.4 m | -4.1 m | 3.0 m | 5.4 m | 20.8 m | 4.0 m |
| Income tax | 1.6 m | 920.0 k | 3.7 m | -690.0 k | 1.1 m | 1.6 m | 4.6 m | 1.4 m |
| Net income | 4.5 m | 2.1 m | 8.6 m | -3.4 m | 1.9 m | 3.8 m | 16.2 m | 2.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 0.05 | — | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.08 | — | 0.06 |
| Operating cash flow | -7.4 m ≈ | -9.8 m ≈ | 40.8 m | -8.1 m | 27.3 m ≈ | 20.5 m ≈ | 74.6 m | -8.8 m |
| Capex | 3.3 m ≈ | 6.3 m ≈ | 7.3 m | 4.3 m | 11.0 m ≈ | 3.6 m ≈ | 4.8 m | 11.9 m |
| Dividends paid | 5.8 m ≈ | 5.7 m ≈ | 5.7 m | 5.9 m | 5.8 m ≈ | 5.8 m ≈ | 5.8 m | 6.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 9.8 m ≈ | 2.8 m ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 92 percentile of its own 24-quarter history (min 3.4, median 9.8, max 90.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 481.3 m | 529.6 m | 1.1 bn | 864.1 m | 479.2 m | 535.8 m | 474.7 m | 523.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | −20.7% | +10.0% | +100.0% | −18.4% | −44.5% | +11.8% | −11.4% | +10.4% |
| Net income | 18.4 m | -61.2 m | 252.0 m | 194.5 m | 36.9 m | 41.4 m | 13.4 m | 18.5 m |
| Net income YoY | −8.5% | −432.6% | unavailable | −22.8% | −81.0% | +12.2% | −67.5% | +37.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.33 | -1.10 | 4.55 | 4.08 | 0.80 | 0.89 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −10.8% | −433.3% | unavailable | −10.3% | −80.4% | +11.3% | −66.3% | +36.7% |
| net % | 3.8% | -11.6% | 23.8% | 22.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| Free cash flow | 26.2 m | 82.3 m | 293.3 m | 113.8 m | -72.8 m | 16.0 m | -28.8 m | 90.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Apr 2026
- Cash
- 28.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 376.6 m USD
- Total assets
- 512.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.20x
- ROE
- 4.9%
- ROA
- 3.4%
- FCF margin
- 17.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 864.1 m | 479.2 m | 535.8 m | 474.7 m | 523.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 610.2 m | 489.6 m | 324.7 m | 377.7 m | 347.5 m | 382.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 449.0 m | 374.6 m | 154.5 m | 158.1 m | 127.2 m | 141.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Research & development | 7.5 m | 7.3 m | 7.6 m | 7.3 m | 9.6 m | 10.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | 319.6 m | 251.7 m | 48.4 m | 47.1 m | 23.9 m | 29.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 31.6 m | 30.1 m | 31.4 m | 32.6 m | 31.8 m | 31.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 351.2 m ≈ | 281.7 m ≈ | 79.8 m ≈ | 79.7 m ≈ | 55.7 m ≈ | 60.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 318.0 m | 252.4 m | 48.2 m | 51.7 m | 19.2 m | 25.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 74.4 m | 57.9 m | 11.4 m | 10.4 m | 5.8 m | 6.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | 252.0 m | 194.5 m | 36.9 m | 41.4 m | 13.4 m | 18.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.55 | 4.08 | 0.80 | 0.89 | 0.30 | 0.41 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 55.4 m | 47.7 m | 46.2 k | 46.2 k | 44.9 k | 44.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 113.0 m | 120.7 m | 53.6 m | 60.8 m | 25.2 m | 28.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | 67.4 m | 62.7 m | 55.2 m | 59.1 m | 55.9 m | 40.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 268.3 m | 327.6 m | 291.9 m | 287.3 m | 277.3 m | 241.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 19.0 m | 19.0 m | 19.0 m | 19.0 m | 19.0 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.4 m | 3.6 m | 3.6 m | 2.6 m | 2.4 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Total assets | 446.4 m | 497.5 m | 541.3 m | 577.4 m | 559.6 m | 512.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 57.3 m | 30.0 m | 36.8 m | 41.8 m | 26.9 m | 34.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 125.7 m | 88.9 m | 87.2 m | 94.4 m | 66.6 m | 75.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 180.0 m | 137.0 m | 156.7 m | 177.5 m | 187.2 m | 136.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 266.4 m † | 360.5 m † | 384.6 m † | 399.9 m † | 372.5 m † | 376.6 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 315.3 m | 137.8 m | 16.7 m | 106.7 m | -7.2 m | 114.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 22.1 m | 24.0 m | 89.6 m | 90.8 m | 21.6 m | 23.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 293.3 m ≈ | 113.8 m ≈ | -72.8 m ≈ | 16.0 m ≈ | -28.8 m ≈ | 90.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -23.4 m | -24.1 m | -89.8 m | -81.5 m | -19.2 m | -28.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -303.9 m | -106.0 m | 5.9 m | -18.0 m | -9.2 m | -83.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 8.2 m | 15.0 m | 18.3 m | 22.0 m | 23.1 m | 23.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 110.0 m | 90.0 m | 0 | 10.2 m | 25.5 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 56 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 643.0 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Returns71
- Growth13
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation67
- Quality71
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.83 – 15.98 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E9.76 – 15.98 (Mid 11.95)24 companies used · median multiple 21.9x · quartiles 17.9x – 29.3xACA, ACU, AZZ, BALL, CIX, CXT, EML, HLIO, LCUT, MAS, MTRN, NPK, OFLX, PH, PKOH, PRLB, RECT, SNA, SSD, TRS, VMI, WTS, XPEL, ZJK
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.83 – 9.19 (Mid 7.84)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 56/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.4% | 42 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 335.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.0% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -20.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 26.3x | 41 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.6% | 52 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 28.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth13/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 523.8 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 10.4%; net margin 4.4%; ROE 6.6%.
The estimated value range is 8.30–12.59 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.89 USD, the price of 14.34 USD leaves a potential of -31.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -45.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 335.3%
- Current ratio: 3.6x
- FCF yield: 12.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 28.4%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -20.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | 114.7 bn | 32.0 | 25.1% | 17.0% | +8.3% | +6% / +110% |
| AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc. | 34.5 bn | 175.8 | 6.2% | 6.2% | +33.5% | −21% / +85% |
| SNASnap-on Inc | 19.0 bn | 19.2 | 17.0% | 19.2% | unavailable | +8% / +34% |
| BALLBall Corporation | 17.5 bn | 33.9 | 9.6% | 3.5% | +11.6% | +36% / +22% |
| MASMasco Corporation | 16.7 bn | 18.8 | — | 12.1% | −3.4% | +34% / +43% |
| SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 8.1 bn | 21.7 | 18.7% | 15.6% | +4.5% | +19% / +19% |
| VMIValmont Industries, Inc. | 7.6 bn | 15.1 | 30.8% | 12.1% | +0.7% | −4% / +81% |
| ACAArcosa, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 14.9 | 17.9% | 17.9% | +12.2% | +46% / +116% |
| MTRNMaterion Corporation | 3.7 bn | 36.3 | 10.5% | 4.6% | +6.0% | +45% / +57% |
| AZZAZZ Inc. | 3.7 bn | 22.0 | 12.3% | 9.6% | +4.6% | +16% / +149% |
| CXTCrane Nxt, Co. | 3.4 bn | 26.3 | 10.5% | 7.1% | +11.4% | +5% / +15% |
| AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 2.8 bn | — | — | 0.2% | +12.0% | +27% / +18% |
| HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 28.0 | 7.7% | 8.0% | unavailable | +11% / +57% |
| PRLBProto Labs, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 44.2 | 5.1% | 6.0% | +6.4% | +24% / +74% |
| TRSTrimas Corporation | 1.4 bn | 1.6 | 83.9% | 136.2% | +2.4% | +11% / +48% |
| XPELXpel, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 20.3 | 19.5% | 10.8% | +13.3% | −14% / −12% |
| SMRNUSCALE POWER Corp | 1.0 bn | — | -30.2% | -3,888.7% | −15.0% | −78% / +58% |
| NPKNational Presto Industries Inc | 1.0 bn | 23.5 | 10.9% | 7.9% | +29.7% | +50% / +88% |
| RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. | 790.9 m | 49.0 | 5.7% | 2.7% | +1.9% | +64% / +13% |
| SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc. | 643.0 m | 26.3 | 6.6% | 4.4% | +10.4% | +51% / +0% |
| PKOHPark-Ohio Holdings Corp | 573.9 m | 21.0 | 7.0% | 1.6% | −3.4% | +85% / +74% |
| BWBabcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc | 461.8 m | — | — | -2.2% | +1.1% | −50% / +118% |
| CIXCompx International Inc | 451.8 m | 22.8 | 16.3% | 14.0% | +8.5% | +63% / +56% |
| MECMayville Engineering Company, Inc. | 332.8 m | — | -5.0% | -2.3% | −6.0% | −23% / +3% |
| IMSRTerrestrial Energy Inc. | 271.7 m | — | -36.8% | — | unavailable | −73% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SWBI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.35 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 14.77 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 22.27 Total return 60% · Per year 60% |
| 3 years | 7.86 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 15.67 Total return 21% · Per year 7% | 25.98 Total return 96% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 7.40 Total return -34% · Per year -8% | 16.63 Total return 37% · Per year 6% | 30.30 Total return 139% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 3.92
- Net margin± 2.74
- Annual revenue growth± 2.28
- Annual dilution± 0.23
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Smith & Wesson Brands makes and designs firearms, including revolvers, pistols, rifles and Gemtech suppressors, and also offers manufacturing services to third parties. The company reported strong sales growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, but demand and inventory remain sensitive to regulation and political conditions. Net sales for fiscal 2026 were 523.8 million USD 1, and the quarter ended July 31, 2026 brought 112.6 million USD 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- The historic brand and product recognition support a broad portfolio and a strong position in pistols.
- Owned factories and manufacturing capacity for third parties offer flexibility and an extra revenue source.
- Operating cash flow was strong in fiscal 2026, allowing dividends and debt reduction.
Weaknesses
- Sales depend heavily on volatile demand that spikes on political fears and then softens.
- Reliance on a concentrated group of commercial distributors may limit bargaining power and sales visibility.
- Gross margins are sensitive to tariffs, manufacturing costs and fixed-cost absorption.
Opportunities
- New product launches and line extensions could keep supporting sales growth.
- Growth in manufacturing for third parties and e-commerce could diversify revenue.
- A recovery in long guns could add volume if consumer demand stabilizes.
Threats
- Federal and state legislation could restrict sales, accessories or exports.
- Civil litigation and product liability exposure could raise costs if legal protections change.
- Tariffs and ammunition shortages could affect orders and margins.
Risks
- Federal and state regulationhigh
New restrictions on firearms, magazine capacity or sales could hinder distribution and product development.
- Civil liabilityhigh
Changes to laws protecting manufacturers from liability could lead to a wave of lawsuits and higher costs.
- Environmentmedium
Soil and groundwater contamination at the Springfield facility could require remediation costs beyond current reserves.
- Tariffs and supply chainmedium
Tariffs on imported components and ammunition shortages could affect margins and demand.
- Distributor concentrationlow
Dependence on a few large distributors could affect sales if those relationships change.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Sales growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and revenue guidance could suggest the brand and new products support demand.
- Strong operating cash flow and dividend payments could indicate solid financial discipline.
- Diversification into manufacturing for third parties and e-commerce could reduce reliance on demand cycles.
What would break the thesis
- Demand depends on political fears and could drop quickly if they ease, which could hit revenue.
- Regulatory and civil liability risk could limit the market or raise costs.
- High inventory and tariffs could pressure margins if sales do not hold up.
What to watch
- Sales growth against the 5-7 percent fiscal 2027 guidanceFiscal 2027
- Inventory levels and how they decline after the second quarterQ2 2027
- Consumer demand tracked through NICS background checksQ2 2027
- Federal and state legislative changes on firearms and accessories2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company produces a wide range of firearms, including revolvers, semi-automatic pistols, rifles, pistol caliber carbines, Gemtech suppressors, handcuffs and components, manufactured in Maryville (Tennessee), Springfield (Massachusetts) and Houlton (Maine) 1. Customers include enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, competitive shooters, law enforcement and military agencies in the United States and abroad 1. Sales go through distributors, strategic retailers and buying groups, while direct e-commerce sales cover accessories and branded merchandise 1.
Strategy focuses on organic growth through new product launches and leveraging the Smith & Wesson brand, more than 170 years old 1. The company invests in ERP and compliance systems to standardize operations and aims to maximize return on invested capital using operating cash flow 1. Factories are level loaded to keep production steady, and manufacturing services for third parties help use capacity 2.
On the sales side, pistols generated most of the revenue growth in fiscal 2026, while long guns declined 1. International sales are a small share, and the top five US commercial distributors account for a significant portion of net sales 1.
Segments
Handguns
Pistols and revolvers were the main growth driver in fiscal 2026, with sales rising from the prior year on new products and consumer demand 1. The quarter ended July 31, 2026 confirmed the trend, with handgun sales growing 2.
Long guns
Long gun sales fell in fiscal 2026 because of the timing of prior-year launches and weaker consumer demand 1. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, long gun sales rose sharply, suggesting a possible recovery in the segment 2.
Other products and services
This segment includes parts, Gemtech suppressors, e-commerce and manufacturing services for third parties; it grew in fiscal 2026 on suppressors and online sales, offsetting lower business-to-business sales 1. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, parts and suppressors continued to grow 2.
Market context
The company estimates the annual domestic non-military market at about 2.7 billion USD for handguns and 1.7 billion USD for long guns, excluding shotguns 1. Industry growth has been volatile, driven by crime fears, news and politics 1. Quarterly demand rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 based on NICS checks 2.
The market relies on distributors, whose inventory can shape future revenue 1. Inventory rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to level load production, and the company expects inventory to build through the second quarter 2.
Trends
- Politically driven demand swingsmixed
The company says demand fell under unified Republican control because the perceived risk of gun legislation was lower, and that fears of regulation can cause sudden demand spikes followed by softening 1. If those fears fade, demand could decline again.
- Tariffsheadwind
Higher tariffs on imported components reduced gross margin in fiscal 2026, while tariff refunds received in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 helped margins but were non-recurring 12.
- New productstailwind
New pistol and rifle launches contributed to sales in fiscal 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal 2027 12.
- Regulation and legislationheadwind
Federal and state laws could restrict sales of certain firearms or accessories, and exports depend on licenses, which could limit growth if rules tighten 1.
Competitive position
The company competes in consumer and professional firearm markets, where several manufacturers offer pistols, revolvers, rifles and accessories 1. It says its brand and attractive price points support its market share, but competition and imports can influence pricing 1.
In suppressors and law enforcement equipment, competition comes from specialized makers, and the company positions its Gemtech brand as involved in military standards 1. Differentiation depends on innovation and the ability to launch new products 1.
- US firearm manufacturers
Makers of pistols and rifles for civilian and professional markets that compete directly on sales.
- Suppressor manufacturers
Specialized suppressor makers competing with the Gemtech line in civilian and military markets.
- Handcuff and law enforcement equipment makers
Suppliers of restraints and equipment to law enforcement, a niche where the company is among the largest US makers 1.
- Firearm distributors and retailers
Channel partners that distribute products and can influence inventory and pricing, but also compete through margins and negotiations.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Smith & Wesson’s (SWBI) Profit Turnaround Comes With a CatchYahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Smith & Wesson (SWBI) Q1 2027 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Q1 2027 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Smith & Wesson Brands Q1 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 12 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 21 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report21 Oct 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Item 3.02 · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Sept 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report03 Sept 2026
- Current report03 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement06 Aug 2026
- Current report15 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report17 Jun 2026
- Current report17 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Mar 2026
- Current report05 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-04-30 · SEC / Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. · 17 Jun 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. · 03 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. · 03 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.