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olivLaw · US equity research

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. MEC

Metal Forgings & Stampings · SIC 3460 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx)

16.01USD−0.31% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) is a U.S. vertically integrated value-added manufacturer of metal components for commercial vehicles, construction equipment, datacenters and other industries. In the second quarter of 2026 sales grew strongly, and demand in the datacenter and critical power segment, supported by reshoring and outsourcing, became the main growth driver while margins remain under pressure from project launch costs.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) stock was 16.01 USD (−0.31% on the day), with market capitalisation 408.3 m USD, beta 0.92, 52-week range 12.71–37.54 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 170.4 m USD (+18.1% YoY), net income of 424.0 k USD, diluted EPS 0.02 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
408.3 m USD
shares as of 31 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.68 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-4.27%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.92
Volatility (1y) 55%
52-week range
12.7137.54

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.5
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
12.64 – 16.39
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 25.8%
SMA 50 / 200
16.53 / 22.59
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.34 / -0.80
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−2.3%−1.1%−1.2 pp—
3 months−37.2%−0.5%−36.8 pp—
6 months−31.4%+4.4%−35.8 pp—
Year to date−14.5%+12.3%−26.8 pp—
1 year−11.0%+13.5%−24.5 pp+17.0%
3 years+32.0%+76.4%−44.4 pp+49.4%
5 years−6.9%+63.7%−70.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−66.1%
29 Jun 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−66.1%
29 Jun 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−1.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
170.4 m USD
+18.1% YoY
Net income
424.0 k USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.02
unavailable YoY
net / operating
0.2% / 2.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue121.3 m135.6 m132.3 m144.3 m134.3 m144.8 m163.0 m170.4 m
Cost of revenue110.5 m120.3 m118.7 m128.4 m125.4 m133.8 m145.3 m151.6 m
Operating income23.0 m1.6 m76.0 k48.0 k-5.5 m-7.7 m388.0 k4.3 m
Interest expense2.0 m1.6 m1.4 m3.4 m3.8 m3.7 m3.5 m3.0 m
Pre-tax income21.0 m10.0 k-1.3 m-3.4 m-9.4 m-11.5 m-3.1 m1.4 m
Income tax5.1 m-10.0 k-225.0 k-707.0 k-5.0 m-3.3 m-992.0 k958.0 k
Net income16.0 m20.0 k-1.1 m-2.7 m-4.4 m-8.2 m-2.1 m424.0 k
Diluted EPS0.75 ≈0.00-0.05-0.13-0.21 ≈-0.40-0.090.02
Operating cash flow38.0 m8.3 m15.0 m ≈1.9 m ≈13.4 m-2.8 m1.4 m ≈4.3 m ≈
Capex2.3 m3.0 m2.4 m ≈3.0 m ≈3.2 m4.2 m8.1 m ≈7.7 m ≈
Share repurchases3.9 m1.7 m2.9 m ≈0 ≈0———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue354.5 m519.7 m357.6 m454.8 m539.4 m588.4 m581.6 m546.5 m
Revenue YoY+13.1%+46.6%−31.2%+27.2%+18.6%+9.1%−1.2%−6.0%
Net income17.9 m-4.8 m-7.1 m-7.5 m18.7 m7.8 m26.0 m-8.1 m
Net income YoY+241.9%−126.5%unavailableunavailableunavailable−58.1%+231.1%−131.2%
Diluted EPSunavailable-0.27-0.36-0.360.910.381.24-0.40
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−58.2%+226.3%−132.3%
net %5.1%-0.9%-2.0%-1.6%3.5%1.3%4.5%-1.5%
Free cash flow18.8 m7.6 m28.7 m-24.9 m-6.2 m23.8 m77.7 m26.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.5 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
240.7 m USD
Total assets
563.6 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.72x
ROE
-3.3%
ROA
-1.6%
FCF margin
4.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
588.4 m
2024
581.6 m
2025
546.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
518.7 m
2024
510.5 m
2025
492.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
69.7 m ≈
2024
71.1 m ≈
2025
54.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived

Operating income
2023
20.2 m
2024
44.6 m
2025
-3.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
11.1 m
2024
11.0 m
2025
10.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
8.9 m
2024
33.6 m
2025
-14.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.0 m
2024
7.6 m
2025
-5.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
7.8 m
2024
26.0 m
2025
-8.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.38
2024
1.24
2025
-0.40

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
20.7 m
2024
21.0 m
2025
20.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
672.0 k
2024
206.0 k
2025
1.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
67.8 m
2024
54.8 m
2025
59.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
134.6 m
2024
112.9 m
2025
128.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
175.7 m
2024
156.5 m
2025
150.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
92.7 m
2024
92.7 m
2025
140.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
58.7 m
2024
51.7 m
2025
111.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
496.7 m
2024
445.6 m
2025
563.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
46.5 m
2024
39.1 m
2025
52.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
71.7 m
2024
64.6 m
2025
74.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
266.7 m
2024
193.8 m
2025
322.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
230.0 m †
2024
251.8 m †
2025
240.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
40.4 m
2024
89.8 m
2025
38.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
16.6 m
2024
12.1 m
2025
11.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
23.8 m ≈
2024
77.7 m ≈
2025
26.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-104.1 m
2024
-11.7 m
2025
-151.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
64.3 m
2024
-78.6 m
2025
114.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
2.7 m
2024
5.9 m
2025
4.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-108.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-131.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-132.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-65.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
16.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
23.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-6.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
46 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
41 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
408.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
2.09
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

16.01 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 408.3 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
408.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 1136derived 75

Score by group

40% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-2.3%13 (vs peers)16%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth0.4%4 (on a fixed band)21%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-0.6x0 (on a fixed band)16%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.7x78 (on a fixed band)11%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-1.7%0 (on a fixed band)21%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.1%16 (on a fixed band)16%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial4/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial16/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 546.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -6.0%; net margin -2.3%; ROE -5.0%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 1.7x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -2.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.4%
  • Interest coverage: -0.6x
  • FCF yield: -1.7%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.1%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 25.2x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.7x
P/S
0.7x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−58.5%)
P/B
1.2x
vertical median 2.5x
below median (−49.2%)
ROE
-5.0%
vertical median 10.0%
below median (−149.6%)
Net margin
-2.3%
vertical median 5.9%
below median (−139.2%)
EBIT margin
-1.4%
vertical median 7.3%
below median (−119.0%)
Revenue YoY
-6.0%
vertical median 6.0%
below median (−199.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PHParker-Hannifin Corporation114.7 bn32.025.1%17.0%+8.3%+6% / +110%
AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc.34.5 bn175.86.2%6.2%+33.5%−21% / +85%
SNASnap-on Inc19.0 bn19.217.0%19.2%unavailable+8% / +34%
SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.17.6 bn21.29.4%5.5%unavailable+65% / +30%
BALLBall Corporation17.5 bn33.99.6%3.5%+11.6%+36% / +22%
MASMasco Corporation16.7 bn18.8—12.1%−3.4%+34% / +43%
CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.13.5 bn17.426.7%5.8%+4.8%+29% / +45%
CRCrane Company11.9 bn35.416.2%12.4%+8.2%+13% / +95%
SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.8.4 bn22.418.7%15.6%+4.5%+23% / +23%
VMIValmont Industries, Inc.8.1 bn15.930.8%12.1%+0.7%+2% / +92%
ACAArcosa, Inc.7.3 bn14.917.9%17.9%+12.2%+46% / +116%
GFFGriffon Corporation4.9 bn27.4185.4%6.5%−3.9%+43% / +131%
SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc4.5 bn16.711.7%4.0%+10.7%+8% / +2%
AZZAZZ Inc.4.0 bn23.812.3%9.6%+4.6%+25% / +169%
MTRNMaterion Corporation3.9 bn38.310.5%4.6%+6.0%+53% / +66%
MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.3.8 bn17.021.7%15.0%+8.7%−1% / +81%
CXTCrane Nxt, Co.3.5 bn27.310.5%7.1%+11.4%+9% / +20%
AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.2.8 bn——0.2%+12.0%+27% / +18%
HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.2.2 bn31.27.7%8.0%unavailable+24% / +74%
HLMNHillman Solutions Corp.1.7 bn68.62.0%1.5%+5.4%+0% / +20%
PRLBProto Labs, Inc.1.6 bn46.65.1%6.0%+6.4%+31% / +84%
TRSTrimas Corporation1.4 bn1.683.9%136.2%+2.4%+16% / +54%
RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.797.5 m49.45.7%2.7%+1.9%+66% / +14%
SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.649.7 m26.56.6%4.4%+10.4%+66% / +5%
PKOHPark-Ohio Holdings Corp630.3 m23.17.0%1.6%−3.4%+103% / +91%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MEC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

    In brief

    Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) is a U.S. vertically integrated value-added manufacturer of metal components for commercial vehicles, construction equipment, datacenters and other industries. In the second quarter of 2026 sales grew strongly, and demand in the datacenter and critical power segment, supported by reshoring and outsourcing, became the main growth driver while margins remain under pressure from project launch costs 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Broad range of processes from design to aftermarket and a declared leadership position in U.S. fabrication 1.
    • Embedded customer relationships, high switching costs and contracts that pass through raw material price variations 1.
    • Ongoing investment in flexible automation and redeployable capacity that supports productivity and quality 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Reliance on a few large customers means losing one important customer could have a significant impact 1.
    • Margins were compressed in the second quarter of 2026 by project launch costs and workforce expansion costs 3.
    • High net debt and higher interest costs limit financial flexibility 3.

    Opportunities

    • Strong demand from datacenter and critical power infrastructure with a growing opportunity pipeline 3.
    • OEM production returning to the United States and outsourcing of non-core components could open new contracts 1.
    • Organic growth from planned capacity investment could expand offerings for higher-margin programs 3.

    Threats

    • Tariffs and trade measures can raise costs and disrupt supply chains 1.
    • Customers may terminate contracts on limited notice, and recovery of pre-production costs is not assured 1.
    • Weak demand in powersports, agriculture and military can reduce volumes in traditional segments 3.

    Risks

    • Dependence on large customershigh

      A small number of OEM customers generate a large share of sales, and losing or reducing orders from one of them could significantly affect results 1.

    • Lack of long-term commitmentshigh

      Most customers do not commit to long-term production schedules, which makes capacity and inventory planning difficult 1.

    • Launch costs and executionmedium

      Datacenter program launch costs reduced margins in the second quarter of 2026, and delayed execution could continue to pressure results 3.

    • Debt and financing costsmedium

      Net debt and higher interest costs reduce financial flexibility, and free cash flow was negative in the first six months of 2026 2.

    • Trade policy and inflationmedium

      Tariffs, retaliatory measures and inflation in labor and materials could affect margins if they cannot be fully passed to customers 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • Demand in the datacenter segment appears to be rising, and an opportunity pipeline above 125 million dollars could support multi-year growth 3.
    • If reshoring and outsourcing trends continue, the company may benefit from its integrated supplier position with a broad process range 1.
    • The raised 2026 sales guidance and the recovery in commercial vehicle demand could point to a favorable revenue momentum 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Adjusted margins declined in the second quarter of 2026, and launch and workforce costs may continue to constrain them 3.
    • Free cash flow was negative in the first six months of 2026, and high net debt could reduce flexibility 2.
    • Dependence on a few customers and weakness in some traditional segments could make revenue more volatile 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against third-quarter guidance for net sales and Adjusted EBITDAQ3 2026
    • Evolution of adjusted margins as datacenter program launch costs decline2026
    • Use of the 50 million dollar organic growth investment and its effect on capacity2027
    • Next annual report on net debt and the ratio of net debt to Adjusted EBITDAnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

    The business

    MEC is a value-added manufacturing partner covering the full product lifecycle, from design, prototyping and tooling to fabrication, aluminum extrusion, coating, assembly and aftermarket components 1. The company describes itself as the largest fabricator in the United States per The Fabricator magazine, a ranking it says it has held for 15 years in a row (2011 - 2025) 1. It operates 27 U.S. facilities, 25 of them in operation, with approximately 2400 employees 1.

    The business model rests on long-standing relationships with major OEM customers and contracts that pass commodity price variations through to customers, limiting exposure to steel and aluminum 1. The largest customer accounted for 13.6% of 2025 net sales and the top ten customers for 62.3% 1. The company reports as one operating segment 1.

    The MBX value-creation framework, announced in 2022, aims to lift performance through flexible automation, capacity investment and a continuous improvement culture, leveraging multi-year OEM reshoring and outsourcing trends 1. In August 2026 the company said it intends to invest an additional 50 million dollars in organic growth across 2026 and 2027 3.

    Market context

    MEC operates in a highly fragmented contract manufacturing market dominated by small local players, where few competitors match its full range of processes and scale 1. End-market demand is shaped by the economic cycle, customer destocking and trade policy, which can affect volumes and capacity utilization 1.

    Trends

    • Datacenter infrastructure expansiontailwind

      Demand for enclosures, racks and critical power systems has grown rapidly, and MEC reported new awards and additional investment to meet it 3. If the strong pace of demand persists it could support revenue growth, though launch costs may pressure margins in the near term 3.

    • OEM reshoring and outsourcingtailwind

      OEMs increasingly outsource non-core components to suppliers like MEC, and production returning to the United States supports demand 1. The effect could remain favorable if these trends continue.

    • Trade policy and tariffsmixed

      Tariffs and retaliatory measures have raised material and energy costs and added uncertainty about short- and long-term effects, though customer contracts limit the margin impact 1. The effect is mixed and depends on how trade policy evolves.

    • Inflation and interest ratesheadwind

      Wage inflation, material costs and elevated interest rates have raised costs and increased interest expense, which reached 3.5 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026 3. This effect is negative for profitability and liquidity.

    Competitive position

    The company says its breadth of processes, scale and engineering expertise make its position hard to replicate for small local competitors 1. Competition still comes from manufacturers with lower cost structures or who accept lower margins 1.

    Competitive risk rises if new entrants or industry consolidation pressure prices or fragment large customers 1. The company invests in automation and engineering to protect its cost advantage and its ability to serve national and local customers 1.

    • Local contract manufacturers

      Most competition comes from small local producers with capabilities limited to one product line or region 1.

    • Lower-cost manufacturers

      Competitors with lower labor or material costs can compete on price and may hold an advantage 1.

    • New entrants and non-traditional competitors

      The company notes new entrants to its industry, including non-traditional competitors 1.

    • Consolidation among competitors

      Industry consolidation could create pricing pressure and heightened competition 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. · 04 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.