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olivLaw · US equity research

XPEL, Inc. XPEL

Coating, Engraving & Allied Services · SIC 3470 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx)

40.06USD−4.91% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

XPEL supplies protective films and coatings, mainly to the automotive aftermarket, new car dealerships and automakers. The company reported revenue growth of 14.7% in the second quarter of 2026, alongside large manufacturing investments that drove cash outflows from investing activities.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) stock was 40.06 USD (−4.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, P/E 20.3 on diluted EPS of 1.97 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.16, 52-week range 36.16–54.95 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 143.1 m USD (+14.7% YoY), net income of 18.0 m USD (+10.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.65 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.1 bn USD
shares as of 07 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.3
Diluted EPS TTM 1.97 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.93%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.16
Volatility (1y) 41%
52-week range
36.1654.95

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
33.8
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
41.15 – 46.50
below the lower band · %B -0.20 · band width 12.2%
SMA 50 / 200
45.44 / 45.98
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.77 / -0.54
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−11.3%−1.1%−10.2 pp—
3 months−16.0%−0.5%−15.5 pp—
6 months−8.9%+4.4%−13.3 pp—
Year to date−19.7%+12.3%−32.1 pp—
1 year+13.5%+13.5%−0.1 pp+11.3%
3 years−19.6%+76.4%−96.0 pp+45.6%
5 years−46.6%+63.7%−110.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−31.8%
21 Jan 2026 → 17 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−71.5%
10 Jul 2023 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−11.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
143.1 m USD
+14.7% YoY
Net income
18.0 m USD
+10.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.65
+10.2% YoY
net / operating
12.6% / 16.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue112.9 m107.5 m103.8 m124.7 m125.4 m122.3 m117.4 m143.1 m
Cost of revenue64.9 m63.8 m59.9 m71.2 m73.0 m71.1 m66.1 m79.9 m
Gross profit47.9 m43.7 m43.9 m53.5 m52.4 m51.2 m51.2 m63.1 m
Operating income18.4 m12.3 m11.1 m19.3 m16.8 m15.5 m13.0 m23.2 m
Interest expense97.0 k34.0 k75.0 k7.0 k1.0 k04.0 k262.0 k
Pre-tax income18.6 m11.2 m11.3 m20.3 m16.6 m15.8 m13.3 m23.4 m
Income tax3.7 m2.3 m2.7 m4.1 m3.5 m2.2 m2.8 m5.1 m
Net income14.9 m8.9 m8.6 m16.3 m12.9 m13.4 m10.3 m18.0 m
Diluted EPS0.540.32 ≈0.310.590.470.48 ≈0.370.65
Operating cash flow19.6 m ≈6.3 m3.2 m27.9 m ≈33.2 m ≈2.7 m7.4 m30.8 m ≈
Capex1.3 m ≈1.6 m1.0 m943.0 k ≈988.0 k ≈1.1 m9.7 m65.1 m ≈
Share repurchases——00 ≈——2.9 m0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 9 percentile of its own 22-quarter history (min 17.2, median 34.2, max 77.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue109.9 m129.9 m158.9 m259.3 m324.0 m396.3 m420.4 m476.2 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+18.2%+22.3%+63.1%+25.0%+22.3%+6.1%+13.3%
Net income8.7 m14.0 m18.3 m31.6 m41.4 m52.8 m45.5 m51.2 m
Net income YoYunavailable+60.4%+30.8%+72.7%+31.1%+27.6%−13.8%+12.6%
Diluted EPSunavailable0.510.661.141.501.911.651.85
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+29.4%+72.7%+31.6%+27.3%−13.6%+12.1%
net %7.9%10.8%11.5%12.2%12.8%13.3%10.8%10.8%
Free cash flow4.8 m9.4 m16.7 m11.5 m4.1 m31.0 m41.1 m62.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
50.9 m USD
Financial debt
59.0 k USD
Net debt
-50.8 m USD
Equity
285.2 m USD
Total assets
382.5 m USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
3.25x
ROE
20.1%
ROA
15.3%
FCF margin
13.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
396.3 m
2024
420.4 m
2025
476.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
233.9 m
2024
243.0 m
2025
275.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
162.4 m
2024
177.4 m
2025
201.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
2.9 m
2024
2.9 m
2025
2.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
67.0 m
2024
59.1 m
2025
62.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
1.2 m
2024
996.0 k
2025
83.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
66.0 m
2024
56.8 m
2025
64.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
13.2 m
2024
11.3 m
2025
12.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
52.8 m
2024
45.5 m
2025
51.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.91
2024
1.65
2025
1.85

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
27.6 m
2024
27.6 m
2025
27.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
11.6 m
2024
22.1 m
2025
50.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
24.1 m
2024
29.1 m
2025
49.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
106.5 m
2024
110.9 m
2025
122.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
146.5 m
2024
168.3 m
2025
230.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
17.0 m
2024
17.7 m
2025
15.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
37.5 m
2024
44.1 m
2025
59.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
34.9 m
2024
34.6 m
2025
49.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
252.0 m
2024
285.6 m
2025
382.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
32.4 m
2024
36.1 m
2025
54.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
59.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
36.5 m
2024
41.5 m
2025
71.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
72.1 m
2024
60.2 m
2025
97.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
180.0 m
2024
225.5 m
2025
285.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
37.4 m
2024
47.8 m
2025
66.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
6.4 m
2024
6.7 m
2025
4.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
31.0 m ≈
2024
41.1 m ≈
2025
62.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-26.4 m
2024
-18.4 m
2025
-33.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-7.3 m
2024
-19.3 m
2025
-3.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
13.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
13.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
24.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
5.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
22.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
12.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
7.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
22.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
53.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
42.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
13.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
19.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
13.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
17.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
17.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
256.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
74.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
76.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-2.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
146 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
60 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
119 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
20.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
16.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
7.08
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 55 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

40.06 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
19.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
13.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 07 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 1157derived 96

Score by group

  • Returns8
  • Growth74
  • Balance sheet100
  • Valuation37
  • Quality50

Estimated value range

Low
35.29
USD per share
Mid
44.26
USD per share
High
57.80
USD per share
Price: 40.06 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 10.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 9.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 35.29 – 57.80 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E35.29 – 57.80 (Mid 44.26)
    24 companies used · median multiple 22.4x · quartiles 17.9x – 29.3x
    ACA, ACU, AZZ, BALL, CIX, CXT, EML, HLIO, LCUT, MAS, MTRN, NPK, OFLX, PH, PKOH, PRLB, RECT, SNA, SSD, SWBI, TRS, VMI, WTS, ZJK
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 55/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality17.1%65 (vs peers)14%
Net margin · Quality10.8%74 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality-5.3%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth13.7%100 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth7.2%48 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet256.4x100 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.6x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation20.3x67 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-0.3%0 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.5%8 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial8/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

XPEL, INC. (XPEL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 476.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.3%; net margin 10.8%; ROE 19.5%.

The estimated value range is 35.29–57.80 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.26 USD, the price of 40.06 USD leaves a potential of 10.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 9.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 10.8%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.7%
  • Interest coverage: 256.4x
  • Current ratio: 2.6x

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -5.3%
  • FCF yield: -0.3%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.5%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Fabricated metal products (SIC 34xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
20.3x
vertical median 23.5x
below median (−13.7%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.7x
P/S
2.2x
vertical median 1.6x
above median (+36.4%)
P/B
3.6x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+56.3%)
ROE
19.5%
vertical median 8.4%
above median (+133.3%)
Net margin
10.8%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+128.0%)
EBIT margin
13.5%
vertical median 6.6%
above median (+104.2%)
Revenue YoY
13.3%
vertical median 4.5%
above median (+191.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.0x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.9%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PHParker-Hannifin Corporation114.7 bn32.025.1%17.0%+8.3%+6% / +110%
AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc.34.5 bn175.86.2%6.2%+33.5%−21% / +85%
SNASnap-on Inc19.0 bn19.217.0%19.2%unavailable+8% / +34%
BALLBall Corporation17.5 bn33.99.6%3.5%+11.6%+36% / +22%
MASMasco Corporation16.7 bn18.8—12.1%−3.4%+34% / +43%
SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.8.1 bn21.718.7%15.6%+4.5%+19% / +19%
VMIValmont Industries, Inc.7.6 bn15.130.8%12.1%+0.7%−4% / +81%
ACAArcosa, Inc.7.3 bn14.917.9%17.9%+12.2%+46% / +116%
MTRNMaterion Corporation3.7 bn36.310.5%4.6%+6.0%+45% / +57%
AZZAZZ Inc.3.7 bn22.012.3%9.6%+4.6%+16% / +149%
CXTCrane Nxt, Co.3.4 bn26.310.5%7.1%+11.4%+5% / +15%
AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.2.8 bn——0.2%+12.0%+27% / +18%
HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.2.0 bn28.07.7%8.0%unavailable+11% / +57%
PRLBProto Labs, Inc.1.5 bn44.25.1%6.0%+6.4%+24% / +74%
TRSTrimas Corporation1.4 bn1.683.9%136.2%+2.4%+11% / +48%
XPELXpel, Inc.1.1 bn20.319.5%10.8%+13.3%+13% / −20%
SMRNUSCALE POWER Corp1.0 bn—-30.2%-3,888.7%−15.0%−78% / +58%
NPKNational Presto Industries Inc1.0 bn23.510.9%7.9%+29.7%+50% / +88%
RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.790.9 m49.05.7%2.7%+1.9%+64% / +13%
SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.643.0 m26.36.6%4.4%+10.4%+65% / +4%
PKOHPark-Ohio Holdings Corp573.9 m21.07.0%1.6%−3.4%+85% / +74%
BWBabcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc461.8 m——-2.2%+1.1%−50% / +118%
CIXCompx International Inc451.8 m22.816.3%14.0%+8.5%+63% / +56%
MECMayville Engineering Company, Inc.332.8 m—-5.0%-2.3%−6.0%−23% / +3%
IMSRTerrestrial Energy Inc.271.7 m—-36.8%—unavailable−73% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for XPEL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
26.01
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
45.80
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
68.73
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
3 years
30.13
Total return -25% · Per year -9%
59.20
Total return 48% · Per year 14%
96.83
Total return 142% · Per year 34%
5 years
34.89
Total return -13% · Per year -3%
76.53
Total return 91% · Per year 14%
136.43
Total return 241% · Per year 28%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 14.80
  • Net margin± 10.36
  • Annual revenue growth± 7.82
  • Annual dilution± 0.87

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

XPEL supplies protective films and coatings, mainly to the automotive aftermarket, new car dealerships and automakers. The company reported revenue growth of 14.7% in the second quarter of 2026, alongside large manufacturing investments that drove cash outflows from investing activities 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company runs an integrated model of products, proprietary software and services, supported by a network of trained installers that sustains its gross margin 13.
  • Revenue growth has been consistent, and gross margin rose in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • The company holds a diversified customer base across channels and regions, reducing reliance on any single segment 1.

Weaknesses

  • The company relies heavily on third-party suppliers and contract manufacturers, exposing costs and quality to disruption 1.
  • Margins in the distributor channel are lower than in other channels, and installation labor carries lower margins 1.
  • Capital spending has risen sharply, consuming cash in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new markets and integration of distributors could open further growth 1.
  • Extending into architectural and non-automotive products could diversify revenue if demand grows 1.
  • Investment in in-house manufacturing could reduce costs and strengthen quality control 1.

Threats

  • A prolonged contraction in automotive sales could directly reduce demand for the company's products 2.
  • Competition from Asian producers and established rivals could pressure prices 1.
  • Tariffs and trade restrictions could disrupt supply chains and raise costs 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on third-party suppliershigh

    A disruption at suppliers or an inability to source from alternate providers could affect deliveries and costs 1.

  • Execution of manufacturing investmentshigh

    Investments in manufacturing assets and the supply chain could bring unanticipated operational and environmental risks 12.

  • Exposure to Chinamedium

    Chinese government regulation and fluctuations in the RMB could generate currency losses and operational changes 1.

  • Dependence on the automotive industrymedium

    A decline in vehicle sales and production could reduce demand for the company's products 2.

  • Dealership sales regulationlow

    Changes in rules on selling accessories could affect product offerings in showrooms 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The integrated model of products, software and services could support differentiation from competitors and installer loyalty 1.
  • Manufacturing investments and international expansion could open long-term growth if execution holds 13.

What would break the thesis

  • Large manufacturing investments consumed considerable cash in the second quarter of 2026, which could reduce financial flexibility 3.
  • The company depends on the automotive industry, and a slowdown in vehicle sales could quickly reduce demand 2.
  • Competition from Asian producers could pressure margins, particularly in standard product segments 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery against third quarter revenue outlookQ3 2026
  • Cash consumed by San Antonio and China manufacturing investmentsQ3 2026
  • Pace of revenue growth in China and Asia Pacific2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

The distribution model combines independent installers, new car dealerships, third-party distributors, 34 company-owned installation centers, OEMs and online sales, the latter being negligible 1. The company pursues global expansion through distributor acquisitions, including in China 1. Its strategy also includes moving from an asset-light model toward investment in its own manufacturing and supply chain 1.

In the first six months of 2026, revenue reached $260.4 million, and the company invested in manufacturing facilities in San Antonio and China 23. Moving to in-house production could lower costs and improve quality control, but it also brings execution risks 1.

Segments

Paint protection film

This flagship product is the largest revenue line, representing 52.4% of consolidated revenue in 2025 1.

Automotive and architectural window film

Automotive window film accounted for 16.6% of revenue in 2025 1, while the VISION architectural line extends the company into non-automotive uses such as solar and safety films 1.

Installation services and software

Installation services represented 18.3% of revenue in 2025, and the DAP software, with over 90000 vehicle applications, supports installer efficiency 1.

Trends

  • Dealership adoption of protective filmtailwind

    New car dealerships have become an important channel, exposing the product to buyers of new vehicles, and this has supported growth 1.

  • Expansion in China and Asiamixed

    The acquisition of the China distributor and investment in local facilities open new markets, but also increase exposure to Chinese regulation 12.

  • Tariffs and international tradeheadwind

    Tariffs could reduce vehicle demand and accessory purchases, and could disrupt supply chains 1.

  • Investment in in-house manufacturingmixed

    Moving from an asset-light model to owned factories could lower costs and improve quality if execution succeeds 13.

Competitive position

The company competes mainly with other manufacturers and distributors of automotive protective film. Its principal named competitor is Eastman Chemical Company, through the LLumar and Suntek brands, alongside numerous suppliers in Korea and China and several smaller companies 1.

XPEL differentiates itself through the services accompanying its products, including the DAP software, marketing and lead generation for installers 1. It also competes for shelf space within new car dealerships 1.

  • Eastman Chemical CompanyEMN

    Principal competitor through the LLumar and Suntek brands in surface and paint protection film 1.

  • Suppliers in Korea

    Numerous film suppliers cited as principal competitors in surface protection 1.

  • Suppliers in China

    Local film producers competing on price and volume in the automotive market 1.

  • Other smaller companies

    A group of smaller competitors cited in the protective film category 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / XPEL, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / XPEL, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / XPEL, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.