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olivLaw · US equity research

GM GM

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · SIC 3711 · Vertical: Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711)

92.43USD+4.63% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

General Motors reported total net sales and revenue of 185.0 bn USD in fiscal 2025 and guided to EBIT-adjusted of 14.5-15.5 bn USD for 2026. In the third quarter of 2026 revenue reached 50.0 bn USD and the company approved a new 20.0 bn USD share repurchase authorization.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, GM (GM) stock was 92.43 USD (+4.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 78.0 bn USD, P/E 20.6 on diluted EPS of 4.48 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.75%, beta 0.95, 52-week range 67.91–92.43 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 50.0 bn USD (+2.9% YoY), net income of 3.3 bn USD (+151.3% YoY), diluted EPS 3.73 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
78.0 bn USD
shares as of 09 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.6
Diluted EPS TTM 4.48 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.85%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.75%
DPS 12m 0.69
Beta (2y)
0.95
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
67.9192.43

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
67.7
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
73.64 – 91.78
above the upper band · %B 1.04 · band width 21.9%
SMA 50 / 200
83.30 / 80.73
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.69 / 0.21
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+15.2%−1.1%+16.3 pp—
3 months+3.7%−0.5%+4.1 pp—
6 months+17.4%+4.4%+13.1 pp—
Year to date+13.7%+12.3%+1.3 pp—
1 year+38.2%+13.5%+24.7 pp−40.0%
3 years+210.5%+76.4%+134.1 pp−57.7%
5 years+57.9%+63.7%−5.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−16.2%
27 Jan 2026 → 13 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−59.5%
04 Jan 2022 → 09 Nov 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+9.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
50.0 bn USD
+2.9% YoY
Net income
3.3 bn USD
+151.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.73
+176.3% YoY
net / operating
6.7% / 7.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue47.7 bn44.0 bn47.1 bn48.6 bn45.3 bn43.6 bn48.0 bn50.0 bn
Operating income1.5 bn3.4 bn2.1 bn1.1 bn-3.6 bn2.9 bn1.5 bn3.6 bn
Depreciation & amortisation2.9 bn2.9 bn3.0 bn3.1 bn3.0 bn3.0 bn3.1 bn2.9 bn
Pre-tax income-2.6 bn3.6 bn2.4 bn1.4 bn-4.2 bn3.3 bn1.6 bn3.9 bn
Income tax318.0 m719.0 m481.0 m127.0 m-988.0 m642.0 m214.0 m565.0 m
Net income-3.0 bn2.8 bn1.9 bn1.3 bn-3.3 bn2.6 bn1.3 bn3.3 bn
Diluted EPS-2.75 ≈3.351.911.35-3.48 ≈2.821.413.73
Operating cash flow4.1 bn6.1 bn6.9 bn ≈7.1 bn ≈6.8 bn3.0 bn6.4 bn ≈7.3 bn ≈
Capex3.2 bn1.8 bn2.1 bn ≈2.1 bn ≈3.2 bn1.5 bn1.9 bn ≈2.3 bn ≈
Dividends paid127.0 m175.0 m144.0 m ≈200.0 m ≈138.0 m223.0 m608.0 m ≈215.0 m ≈
Share repurchases4.7 bn2.0 bn0 ≈1.5 bn ≈2.5 bn800.0 m2.0 bn ≈2.5 bn ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 85 percentile of its own 41-quarter history (min 3.6, median 6.1, max 58.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue147.0 bn137.2 bn122.5 bn127.0 bn156.7 bn171.8 bn187.4 bn185.0 bn
Revenue YoY+1.0%−6.7%−10.7%+3.7%+23.4%+9.6%+9.1%−1.3%
Net income8.0 bn6.7 bn6.4 bn10.0 bn9.9 bn10.1 bn6.0 bn2.7 bn
Net income YoYunavailable−16.0%−4.5%+55.9%−0.8%+1.9%−40.7%−55.1%
Diluted EPS5.534.574.336.706.137.326.373.27
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−17.4%−5.3%+54.7%−8.5%+19.4%−13.0%−48.7%
net %5.4%4.9%5.2%7.9%6.3%5.9%3.2%1.5%
Free cash flow6.5 bn7.4 bn11.4 bn7.7 bn6.8 bn10.0 bn9.3 bn17.6 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
20.9 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
63.2 bn USD
Total assets
281.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.17x
ROE
4.2%
ROA
1.0%
FCF margin
9.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
171.8 bn
2024
187.4 bn
2025
185.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Feb 2022verified

Gross profit
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Feb 2022derived

SG&A
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Feb 2022verified

Operating income
2023
9.3 bn
2024
12.8 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
11.7 bn
2024
11.5 bn
2025
12.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
21.0 bn ≈
2024
24.2 bn ≈
2025
14.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2021verified

Pre-tax income
2023
10.4 bn
2024
8.5 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Income tax
2023
563.0 m
2024
2.6 bn
2025
338.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Net income
2023
10.1 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
7.32
2024
6.37
2025
3.27

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
973.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.36
2024
0.48
2025
0.57

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
18.9 bn
2024
19.9 bn
2025
20.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Receivables
2023
12.4 bn
2024
12.8 bn
2025
13.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Inventories
2023
16.5 bn
2024
14.6 bn
2025
14.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Current assets
2023
101.6 bn
2024
108.5 bn
2025
108.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jan 2023verified

Goodwill
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Total assets
2023
273.1 bn
2024
279.8 bn
2025
281.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
28.1 bn
2024
25.7 bn
2025
23.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
94.4 bn
2024
96.3 bn
2025
93.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
204.8 bn
2024
214.2 bn
2025
218.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Equity
2023
68.2 bn
2024
65.6 bn
2025
63.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
1.2 bn
2024
995.0 m
2025
904.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
20.9 bn
2024
20.1 bn
2025
26.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Capex
2023
11.0 bn
2024
10.8 bn
2025
9.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
10.0 bn ≈
2024
9.3 bn ≈
2025
17.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-14.7 bn
2024
-20.5 bn
2025
-16.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-6.4 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
-9.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
597.0 m
2024
653.0 m
2025
657.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
11.1 bn
2024
7.1 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-77.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-55.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-35.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-15.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-48.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-18.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
88.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
15.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
23.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
9.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
14.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
363.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
143.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
78.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
19.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
5.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
11.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
1.21
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 65 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

92.43 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 78.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
78.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 09 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 20 Oct 2026
verified 2365derived 169

Score by group

  • Balance sheet24
  • Valuation78
  • Quality86
  • Growth24
  • Returns100

Estimated value range

Low
84.68
USD per share
Mid
90.72
USD per share
High
100.23
USD per share
Price: 92.43 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -1.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -1.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 84.68 – 100.23 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E84.68 – 100.23 (Mid 90.72)
    3 companies used · median multiple 20.2x · quartiles 18.9x – 22.4x
    FSS, OSK, PCAR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate7.49 – 10.07 (Mid 8.59)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 65/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality2.1%72 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality363.8%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth5.7%47 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-18.9%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x24 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation20.6x60 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation18.5%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns11.5%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns8.2%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial24/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth24/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality86/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY (GM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 185.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.3%; net margin 2.1%; ROE 6.1%.

The estimated value range is 84.68–100.23 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 90.72 USD, the price of 92.43 USD leaves a potential of -1.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 2.1%
  • FCF conversion: 363.8%
  • FCF yield: 18.5%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 11.5%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 8.2%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -18.9%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 25 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
20.6x
vertical median 24.5x
below median (−15.8%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 19.0x
P/S
0.4x
vertical median 1.5x
below median (−71.5%)
P/B
1.2x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−45.1%)
ROE
6.1%
vertical median -7.9%
above median
Net margin
2.1%
vertical median -28.4%
above median
EBIT margin
2.3%
vertical median -38.7%
above median
Revenue YoY
-1.3%
vertical median -1.4%
at median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.5x
Dividend yield
0.7%
vertical median 1.5%
below median (−51.8%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TSLATesla, Inc.1,522.6 bn424.63.8%3.1%−2.9%−10% / +60%
GMGeneral Motors Company78.0 bn20.66.1%2.1%−1.3%+38% / +210%
PCARPACCAR Inc55.9 bn20.213.7%9.5%−15.5%+1% / +16%
LILi Auto Inc.23.5 bn144.81.6%1.0%−18.8%−37% / −69%
RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc.20.5 bn—-55.0%-45.9%+8.4%−17% / −16%
OSKOshkosh Corporation8.7 bn17.511.0%4.6%−2.9%+12% / +47%
NIONIO Inc.8.2 bn—-302.6%-17.1%+38.9%−40% / −55%
VFSVinFast Auto Ltd.7.8 bn——-175.5%+54.7%+2% / −61%
FSSFederal Signal Corporation7.2 bn24.520.5%11.7%+17.1%+3% / +71%
LCIDLucid Group, Inc.1.3 bn—-571.4%-249.2%+67.6%−75% / −92%
LOTLotus Technology Inc.217.2 m——-89.4%−43.8%−75% / −97%
NIUNiu Technologies115.3 m—-4.4%-0.9%+36.7%−49% / −24%
GGRGogoro Inc.45.7 m—-56.2%-28.4%−9.4%−23% / −94%
WKHSWorkhorse Group Inc.36.2 m——-301.5%+201.1%−69% / −100%
DCXDigital Currency X Technology Inc.21.5 m——-434.9%−27.1%−100% / −100%
FFAIFaraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.12.2 m—-2,030.5%-21,838.0%−0.6%−100% / −100%
FLYEFly-E Group, Inc.2.8 m—-82.2%-67.9%−25.0%−62% / unavailable
CENNCenntro Inc.434.8 k—-126.6%-423.9%−42.2%−98% / −100%
FFord Motor Co——-18.4%-4.2%+1.2%−5% / +23%
RACEFerrari N.V.——42.9%22.3%+7.0%+10% / +20%
STLAStellantis N.V.——-33.0%-14.5%−2.1%−56% / −79%
HMCHonda Motor Co., Ltd.——6.7%3.9%+6.2%+16% / +15%
XPEVXpeng Inc.——-7.9%-46.7%unavailable−55% / −41%
AIIORobo.ai Inc.———-17,614.9%−92.1%−96% / −100%
TMToyota Motor Corp——13.6%9.9%+6.5%−1% / +5%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
57.84
Total return -37% · Per year -37%
102.19
Total return 11% · Per year 11%
153.85
Total return 67% · Per year 67%
3 years
57.48
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
114.15
Total return 26% · Per year 8%
188.49
Total return 107% · Per year 27%
5 years
57.12
Total return -35% · Per year -8%
127.49
Total return 43% · Per year 7%
230.93
Total return 156% · Per year 21%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 28.54
  • Net margin± 19.98
  • Annual revenue growth± 16.21
  • Annual dilution± 1.68

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

General Motors reported total net sales and revenue of 185.0 bn USD in fiscal 2025 1 and guided to EBIT-adjusted of 14.5-15.5 bn USD for 2026 2. In the third quarter of 2026 revenue reached 50.0 bn USD and the company approved a new 20.0 bn USD share repurchase authorization 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Strong portfolio of high-margin trucks and SUVs and a leading position in the U.S. market 1.
  • Extensive North American manufacturing base and diversified production capacity 1.
  • Software and connected-services platform, including OnStar and Super Cruise, deployed across part of the fleet 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on high-margin ICE vehicles makes profitability sensitive to shifts in consumer preferences 1.
  • Large charges tied to realigning EV capacity weighed on results in fiscal 2025 1.
  • High fixed costs and collective bargaining agreements limit flexibility when demand falls 1.

Opportunities

  • If production is moved onto U.S. soil and material costs ease, margins could return to the target range 2.
  • Development of advanced driver-assistance features could expand software-related revenue 1.
  • If invalidated tariffs are refunded, the impact on results could be reduced 2.

Threats

  • New or changed trade tariffs could materially reduce profitability in North America 12.
  • Competition from lower-cost economies could pressure prices and market share in emerging markets 1.
  • Slow EV adoption could require further restructuring actions and additional charges 1.

Risks

  • Slow adoption of electric vehicleshigh

    If EV adoption stays below expectations, the company could record further charges and may need to reduce production capacity 1.

  • Trade tariffshigh

    The tariff environment remains dynamic, and changes could affect the cost of imported parts and vehicles and the EBIT-adjusted result 12.

  • Pricing competitionmedium

    Industry excess capacity can lead to aggressive incentives and pricing pressure, which could reduce margins 1.

  • Supplier dependencemedium

    Single-source purchases and concentration of EV battery supply chains could expose production to disruption 1.

  • Autonomous driving risklow

    The autonomous driving strategy could face technical or regulatory delays that affect software investment returns 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If North American profitability returns to the target range, annual results could exceed current guidance 23.
  • The share repurchase program, combined with growing automotive cash flow, could support shareholder returns 3.
  • A strong position in the U.S. market and sales of trucks and SUVs could sustain margins in coming periods 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If tariffs stay high, their effect on EBIT-adjusted could exceed current estimates 2.
  • Weak EV demand could lead to further restructuring charges and weigh on investor confidence 12.
  • If competition in emerging markets intensifies, the China market share could decline further 1.

What to watch

  • Trajectory of GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin against the target rangeQ4 2026
  • Additional charges linked to EV capacity realignment2026
  • Execution of the 20 bn USD share repurchase program2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

General Motors Company designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts, and provides software-enabled services and subscriptions, under the Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC brands 1. Its operations are organized into GMNA (North America), GMI (International) and GM Financial, the captive finance arm. In fiscal 2025, 27.5% of wholesale volume was generated outside the U.S., out of 3.8 million vehicles 1. The company refocused its autonomous driving strategy from robotaxis to personal-vehicle systems after winding down Cruise robotaxi operations 1.

The full-size ICE trucks and SUVs, which carry the highest margins, remain the main source of profitability, while EV investments were realigned after U.S. demand slowed 12. In fiscal 2025 GMNA recorded 7.9 bn USD of EV-related charges 1. Software services such as OnStar and Super Cruise complement the model 1.

Segments

GM International (GMI)

GMI includes the China operations run through joint ventures, where market share was 7.1% in fiscal 2025 1. In the third quarter of 2026, GMI EBIT-adjusted fell sharply from the prior year 3.

GM Financial

GM Financial provides vehicle financing, with revenue of 17.1 bn USD in fiscal 2025 1. Leased vehicle income is the largest component but is exposed to used-vehicle residual values 1.

Trends

  • Demand for electric vehiclesheadwind

    Slower U.S. EV demand after the removal of tax incentives could keep pressure on EV capacity and segment profitability 1.

  • Trade tariffsmixed

    Tariffs on imported vehicles and parts change costs, though refunds of invalidated tariffs could bring favorable adjustments 2.

  • High-margin ICE vehiclestailwind

    Sustained demand for full-size trucks and SUVs supports margins, provided consumer preferences do not shift quickly toward smaller vehicles 1.

  • Emissions and fuel-economy rulesmixed

    Changes to emissions and fuel-economy regulation could reduce compliance costs or lead to impairment of acquired regulatory credits 1.

Competitive position

Competition in the auto industry is intense, and manufacturers in lower-cost economies such as China and India are expanding in emerging markets and in entry-level segments 1. Pricing pressure could increase if industry excess capacity remains high 1.

New entrants and technology suppliers, including ridesharing services backed by large technology companies, are reshaping the traditional business model 1. The company must deliver new products, including EVs and autonomous features, to stay competitive 1.

  • Chinese automakers

    Chinese manufacturers offering lower-cost vehicles in emerging markets and entry-level segments, affecting pricing and market share 1.

  • Indian automakers

    Indian manufacturers that have become competitors in emerging markets with low-cost products 1.

  • Technology companies and ridesharing services

    Software and transport service companies backed by large technology firms that are changing industry structure 1.

  • Traditional vehicle manufacturers

    Established automakers redirecting resources in response to regulation and shifting consumer preferences 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report29 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Current report27 Oct 2026
    Delisting notice · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report20 Oct 2026
  • Current report20 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report21 Jul 2026
  • Current report21 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report04 Jun 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report26 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Quarterly report28 Apr 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / GM · 27 Jan 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / GM · 20 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / GM · 20 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.