olivLaw · US equity research
Oshkosh Corporation OSK
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · SIC 3711 · Vertical: Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711)
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) designs and builds purpose-built vehicles and equipment for construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse collection and defense, with a focus on electrification and autonomy. In the second quarter of 2026 the company lowered its 2026 outlook because municipal fire truck production is ramping more gradually, while demand for access equipment remains strong. Net sales for 2026 are now expected at about 11.2 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) stock was 143.40 USD (+0.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.7 bn USD, P/E 54.2 on diluted EPS of 2.65 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.55%, beta 1.31, 52-week range 118.59–177.94 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.8 bn USD (+5.7% YoY), net income of 138.4 m USD (−29.5% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 121.35 – 145.20
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 17.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 139.11 / 146.30
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.63 / -0.31
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.1% | −1.1% | +9.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.2% | −0.5% | −5.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.5% | +4.4% | −12.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +14.1% | +12.3% | +1.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +19.1% | +13.5% | +5.5 pp | −40.0% |
| 3 years | +51.8% | +76.4% | −24.6 pp | −57.7% |
| 5 years | +24.5% | +63.7% | −39.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Gross profit | 447.3 m | 399.9 m | 524.5 m | 470.5 m | 424.1 m | 311.9 m | 480.3 m | 440.3 m |
| Research & development | 45.5 m | 48.8 m | 45.0 m | 39.4 m | 40.5 m | 39.1 m | 39.8 m | 42.2 m |
| SG&A | 209.2 m | 211.0 m | 213.3 m | 196.2 m | 198.2 m | 215.6 m | 222.7 m | 228.9 m |
| Operating income | 223.9 m | 175.4 m | 291.7 m | 260.4 m | 212.0 m | 82.0 m | 243.2 m | 197.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 53.7 m | 53.6 m | 55.9 m | 56.3 m | 58.3 m | 60.6 m | 62.2 m | 62.8 m |
| Interest expense | 31.5 m | 27.0 m | 30.1 m | 30.6 m | 29.9 m | 29.8 m | 30.7 m | 30.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 198.9 m | 150.9 m | 270.9 m | 238.4 m | 181.8 m | 54.7 m | 219.7 m | 177.9 m |
| Income tax | 45.2 m | 36.8 m | 65.2 m | 41.7 m | 47.8 m | 10.5 m | 37.2 m | 40.5 m |
| Net income | 153.1 m | 112.2 m | 204.8 m | 196.2 m | 133.8 m | 43.1 m | 183.2 m | 138.4 m |
| Operating cash flow | 790.8 m | -394.9 m | 89.2 m ≈ | 489.0 m ≈ | 600.1 m | -161.0 m | 374.3 m ≈ | 319.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 87.5 m | 40.3 m | 54.3 m | 38.9 m | 59.8 m | 28.1 m | 26.7 m ≈ | 45.2 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 29.9 m | 32.9 m | 32.8 m ≈ | 32.6 m ≈ | 32.1 m | 35.6 m | 35.4 m ≈ | 35.2 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 50.4 m | 28.7 m | 40.0 m ≈ | 90.6 m ≈ | 118.7 m | 47.3 m | 91.6 m ≈ | 82.4 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 24-quarter history (min 8.7, median 15.5, max 33.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.7 bn | 8.4 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.8% | +8.8% | −18.2% | +12.8% | +7.0% | +16.6% | +11.1% | −2.9% |
| Net income | 471.9 m | 579.4 m | 321.5 m | 508.9 m | 173.9 m | 598.0 m | 681.4 m | 647.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +65.2% | +22.8% | −44.5% | +58.3% | −65.8% | +243.9% | +13.9% | −5.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.29 | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +66.8% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% |
| Free cash flow | 341.0 m | 420.7 m | 215.0 m | 1.1 bn | 331.8 m | 274.3 m | 269.1 m | 618.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 479.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 621.1 m USD
- Equity
- 4.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 10.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.24x
- Current ratio
- 1.94x
- ROE
- 14.9%
- ROA
- 6.6%
- FCF margin
- 5.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.9 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 103.9 m | 103.1 m | 113.4 m | 133.6 m | 169.1 m | 173.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 620.6 m | 666.5 m | 662.8 m | 810.4 m | 852.4 m | 818.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 484.8 m | 592.1 m | 372.3 m | 837.6 m | 1.0 bn | 939.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 104.2 m | 104.0 m | 107.6 m | 159.9 m | 200.1 m | 224.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 589.0 m ≈ | 696.1 m ≈ | 479.9 m ≈ | 997.5 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 59.3 m | 48.2 m | 53.4 m | 68.6 m | 119.5 m | 117.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 435.2 m | 545.3 m | 275.6 m | 797.6 m | 903.0 m | 842.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 111.9 m | 36.4 m | 97.5 m | 190.0 m | 210.0 m | 191.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 321.5 m | 508.9 m | 173.9 m | 598.0 m | 681.4 m | 647.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 68.8 m | 69.2 m | 66.1 m | 65.9 m | 65.8 m | 64.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.20 | 1.32 | 1.48 | 1.64 | 1.84 | 2.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 582.9 m | 1.4 bn | 805.9 m | 125.4 m | 204.9 m | 479.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 565.9 m | 595.9 m | 826.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 466.8 m | 466.8 m | 457.0 m | 830.2 m | 777.6 m | 734.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.9 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.7 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.4 bn | 10.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 577.8 m | 860.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 5.2 m | — | 9.7 m | 175.0 m | 362.3 m | 600.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 817.9 m | 818.8 m | 595.0 m | 597.5 m | 599.5 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 327.3 m | 1.2 bn | 601.3 m | 599.6 m | 550.1 m | 783.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 112.3 m | 104.4 m | 269.5 m | 325.3 m | 281.0 m | 165.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 215.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 331.8 m ≈ | 274.3 m ≈ | 269.1 m ≈ | 618.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -77.6 m | -245.6 m | -300.4 m | -1.3 bn | -388.8 m | -204.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -115.5 m | -180.4 m | -485.0 m | 3.4 m | -75.1 m | -315.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 81.8 m | 90.4 m | 97.3 m | 107.2 m | 120.0 m | 130.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 40.8 m | 107.8 m | 155.0 m | 22.5 m | 116.0 m | 278.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 81 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation82
- Balance sheet70
- Quality92
- Growth66
- Returns87
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 26.81 – 409.09 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)256.07 – 409.09 (Mid 314.44)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 1.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -22.4%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA256.15 – 371.89 (Mid 296.31)3 companies used · median multiple 19.0x · quartiles 16.5x – 23.7xFSS, GGR, LI
- Peers: P/E166.97 – 184.31 (Mid 168.53)3 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 20.4x – 22.5xFSS, GM, PCAR
- Dividend discount (DDM)26.81 – 36.05 (Mid 30.75)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 81/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.9% | 93 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.6% | 84 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 195.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.0% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 67 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.1x | 70 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.5x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 9.5x | 50 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.5% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 14.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial66/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 10.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.9%; net margin 4.6%; ROE 11.0%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 211.52–278.10 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 232.42 USD, the price of 143.40 USD leaves a potential of 62.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 38.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 81/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 10.9%
- Net margin: 4.6%
- FCF conversion: 195.3%
- Interest coverage: 6.1x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- P/E (TTM): 17.5x
- FCF yield: 11.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 14.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 25 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | 1,522.6 bn | 424.6 | 3.8% | 3.1% | −2.9% | −10% / +60% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | 78.0 bn | 20.6 | 6.1% | 2.1% | −1.3% | +26% / +192% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | 55.9 bn | 20.2 | 13.7% | 9.5% | −15.5% | +1% / +16% |
| LILi Auto Inc. | 23.5 bn | 144.8 | 1.6% | 1.0% | −18.8% | −37% / −69% |
| RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc. | 20.5 bn | — | -55.0% | -45.9% | +8.4% | −17% / −16% |
| OSKOshkosh Corporation | 8.7 bn | 17.5 | 11.0% | 4.6% | −2.9% | +19% / +52% |
| NIONIO Inc. | 8.2 bn | — | -302.6% | -17.1% | +38.9% | −40% / −55% |
| VFSVinFast Auto Ltd. | 7.8 bn | — | — | -175.5% | +54.7% | +2% / −61% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | 7.2 bn | 24.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | +17.1% | +3% / +71% |
| LCIDLucid Group, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -571.4% | -249.2% | +67.6% | −75% / −92% |
| LOTLotus Technology Inc. | 217.2 m | — | — | -89.4% | −43.8% | −75% / −97% |
| NIUNiu Technologies | 115.3 m | — | -4.4% | -0.9% | +36.7% | −49% / −24% |
| GGRGogoro Inc. | 45.7 m | — | -56.2% | -28.4% | −9.4% | −23% / −94% |
| WKHSWorkhorse Group Inc. | 36.2 m | — | — | -301.5% | +201.1% | −69% / −100% |
| DCXDigital Currency X Technology Inc. | 21.5 m | — | — | -434.9% | −27.1% | −100% / −100% |
| FFAIFaraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. | 12.2 m | — | -2,030.5% | -21,838.0% | −0.6% | −100% / −100% |
| FLYEFly-E Group, Inc. | 2.8 m | — | -82.2% | -67.9% | −25.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| CENNCenntro Inc. | 434.8 k | — | -126.6% | -423.9% | −42.2% | −98% / −100% |
| FFord Motor Co | — | — | -18.4% | -4.2% | +1.2% | −5% / +23% |
| HMCHonda Motor Co., Ltd. | — | — | 6.7% | 3.9% | +6.2% | +16% / +15% |
| TMToyota Motor Corp | — | — | 13.6% | 9.9% | +6.5% | −1% / +5% |
| PSNYPolestar Automotive Holding UK PLC | — | — | — | -100.8% | −14.1% | −72% / −93% |
| XPEVXpeng Inc. | — | — | -7.9% | -46.7% | unavailable | −55% / −41% |
| RACEFerrari N.V. | — | — | 42.9% | 22.3% | +7.0% | +10% / +20% |
| AIIORobo.ai Inc. | — | — | — | -17,614.9% | −92.1% | −96% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OSK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 87.71 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 154.82 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 232.86 Total return 62% · Per year 62% |
| 3 years | 91.16 Total return -36% · Per year -14% | 180.46 Total return 26% · Per year 8% | 297.15 Total return 107% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 94.73 Total return -34% · Per year -8% | 210.34 Total return 47% · Per year 8% | 379.18 Total return 164% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 45.11
- Net margin± 31.58
- Annual revenue growth± 25.09
- Annual dilution± 2.65
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) designs and builds purpose-built vehicles and equipment for construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse collection and defense, with a focus on electrification and autonomy. In the second quarter of 2026 the company lowered its 2026 outlook because municipal fire truck production is ramping more gradually, while demand for access equipment remains strong 23. Net sales for 2026 are now expected at about 11.2 billion USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- NGDV contract performancehigh
The production ramp-up has been slower and more costly than anticipated, and the company flagged a possible impairment of its deferred contract asset 1. If the USPS orders fewer units, results could be affected significantly 1.
- Tariffs and international tradehigh
Tariffs can raise costs and reduce demand, and their ultimate scope remains uncertain 1. Trade restrictions could disrupt supply chains 1.
- Cyclicality of marketsmedium
Demand for access equipment, fire apparatus and collection vehicles depends on the economy and municipal budgets, which can lead to sharp declines 1.
- Supplier dependencemedium
Delays or disruptions at suppliers of engines, chassis and batteries could halt production 1.
- Government dependencemedium
Government contracts can be reduced, delayed or awarded to other manufacturers, which could reduce revenue 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong demand for access equipment and a high backlog could support revenue growth and a recovery in margins 2.
- If fire apparatus production improves and prices hold, Vocational margins could keep rising 12.
- An additional NGDV order could bring revenue and favorable adjustments to the Transport segment 2.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Pace of fire apparatus production growth and Vocational marginsQ3 2026
- Additional NGDV order and USPS production volumeQ4 2026
- Evolution of tariffs and their impact on 2026 costs2026
- Order pace and backlog in the Access segmentnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Oshkosh Corporation describes itself as a global industrial technology company that designs and deploys purpose-built vehicles and equipment for construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse collection, defense and delivery 1. It is organized into three reportable segments: Access, Vocational and Transport 1. Its strategy is summarized as 'Innovate. Serve. Advance.', aiming at intelligent, connected and electrified products and expansion into adjacent categories 1.
The company supports its position with strong brands, from JLG and Pierce to Oshkosh Defense, and with flexible, technology-enabled manufacturing that adapts to customer specifications 1. It also provides lifecycle services, including parts and support, which the company links to customer loyalty 1. A key contract is the Next Generation Delivery Vehicle program for the U.S. Postal Service, which allows deliveries of up to 165,000 vehicles over ten years 1.
Over recent periods the company has continued to reshape its portfolio through acquisitions and investments, including AeroTech in 2023 and AUSA in September 2024 1. It has also maintained share repurchases and dividend growth 12.
Segments
Access
The Access segment designs aerial work platforms and telehandlers under the JLG and SkyTrak brands for construction, industrial and maintenance use 1. It accounted for about 43% of 2025 consolidated net sales 1. The segment also includes Jerr-Dan towing and recovery vehicles 1.
Vocational
The Vocational segment includes fire apparatus (Pierce, Maxi-Metal), airport equipment, refuse collection vehicles (McNeilus) and concrete mixers, and represented about 36% of 2025 consolidated net sales 1. Its customers are mainly municipalities and commercial customers in North America 1.
Transport
The Transport segment, under the Oshkosh Defense brand, supplies tactical vehicles to the U.S. Department of Defense and allied nations, as well as NGDV vehicles for the USPS 1. It accounted for about 20% of 2025 consolidated net sales 1. Its revenues depend on multi-year contracts, which can make results more volatile 1.
Market context
The markets Oshkosh serves are cyclical, especially access equipment, which is affected by residential and non-residential construction, rental company financing and capital spending 1. Net sales fell 2.9% in 2025 to about 10.4 billion USD, reflecting weaker demand in Access but growth in Vocational 1. For 2026 the company estimates sales rising to about 11.2 billion USD 3.
The trade environment and tariffs add cost pressure, with the company estimating tariffs of about 200 million USD in 2026 1. Demand in defense and delivery depends on government budgets and on the production pace of the USPS contract 12.
Trends
- Tariffsheadwind
Tariffs imposed by the U.S. have added costs, and the company expects them to rise significantly in 2026 1. If tariff levels persist, pressure on margins could continue 1.
- Demand for access equipmenttailwind
Strong orders in the second quarter of 2026 and a large backlog point to solid demand in Access, although the segment's sales declined in 2025 21. If this demand holds, it could support revenue in 2026 2.
- Fire apparatus productionmixed
The company is modernizing its fire apparatus manufacturing but has signaled a more gradual increase in throughput 2. Delays could push back revenue and affect margins in Vocational 2.
- NGDV program for USPSmixed
NGDV production is ramping gradually, and the company expects an additional order, which could support Transport revenue 2. However, production costs above expectations have already been flagged as a risk 1.
Competitive position
Oshkosh operates in markets with varied competition: access equipment, fire apparatus, airport and defense vehicles, each with different rivals 1. The company says it holds strong market positions in nearly all of its businesses and that its products offer a lower total cost of ownership 1. Competition for government contracts is intense, and the Department of Defense could award contracts to other manufacturers 1.
The company is compared mainly with larger vehicle manufacturers, but it argues its flexibility and scale give it an edge 1. In access equipment, competition also depends on rental company financing capacity and pricing policy 1.
- CaterpillarCAT
Named in the source as a partner that ordered telehandlers under an agreement that expired in 2024; not explicitly described as a direct rival.
- Fire apparatus manufacturers
Not named in the supplied sources; competition in this segment is mentioned only in general terms.
- Access equipment manufacturers
Competitors in the Access segment are not identified in the supplied sources.
- Other tactical vehicle makers
The company competes for government contracts, but its rivals are not named in the supplied sources.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- ► Oshkosh Defense and Grid Aero announce strategic partnershipEuropean Defence Review · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Oshkosh partners with startup to build military dronesDefense News (US, EN) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- EAA AirVenture Oshkosh: How The World’s Largest Fly-In Runs The Busiest Tower On EarthSimple Flying · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Oshkosh adapts JLTV for Dutch military patrol vehicleDefense News (US, EN) · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Oshkosh Defense begins production of first DXPV prototype for Netherlands Ministry of DefenceEuropean Defence Review · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- Oshkosh Defense receives follow-on order from Morocco for HET A1 tractors and trailersEuropean Defence Review · 06 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report08 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report08 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement26 Mar 2026
- Current report16 Mar 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report17 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Oshkosh Corporation · 17 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Oshkosh Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Oshkosh Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.