olivLaw · US equity research
Tesla, Inc. TSLA
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · SIC 3711 · Vertical: Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711)
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) describes its business as bringing artificial intelligence into the real world through electric vehicles, energy storage systems and software services such as FSD (Supervised) and Robotaxi. In fiscal 2025 total revenues were 94.83 billion USD and net income attributable to common stockholders was 3.79 billion USD. In the first nine months of fiscal 2026 revenues reached 78.67 billion USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock was 385.19 USD (−3.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 1,522.6 bn USD, P/E 424.6 on diluted EPS of 0.91 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.32, 52-week range 298.32–489.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 28.0 bn USD (−0.2% YoY), net income of 787.0 m USD (−42.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.22 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 352.79 – 413.63
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.53 · band width 15.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 372.11 / 384.76
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 8.19 / 7.48
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.7% | −1.1% | +2.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +19.8% | −0.5% | +20.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.4% | +4.4% | −7.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −14.3% | +12.3% | −26.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −13.3% | +13.5% | −26.8 pp | −40.0% |
| 3 years | +75.1% | +76.4% | −1.3 pp | −57.7% |
| 5 years | −5.4% | +63.7% | −69.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.7 bn | 19.3 bn | 22.5 bn | 28.1 bn | 24.9 bn | 22.4 bn | 28.2 bn | 28.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 21.5 bn | 16.2 bn | 18.6 bn | 23.0 bn | 19.9 bn | 17.7 bn | 23.5 bn | 22.6 bn |
| Gross profit | 4.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.5 bn |
| Research & development | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn |
| SG&A | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Operating income | 1.6 bn | 399.0 m | 923.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 941.0 m | 398.0 m | 718.0 m |
| Interest expense | 96.0 m | 91.0 m | 86.0 m | 76.0 m | 85.0 m | 92.0 m | 81.0 m | 90.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.5 bn | 589.0 m | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 748.0 m | 1.3 bn | 956.0 m |
| Income tax | 381.0 m | 169.0 m | 359.0 m | 570.0 m | 325.0 m | 257.0 m | 201.0 m | 152.0 m |
| Net income | 2.1 bn | 409.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 840.0 m | 477.0 m | 1.1 bn | 787.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.60 ≈ | 0.12 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.24 ≈ | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| Operating cash flow | 4.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn ≈ | 6.2 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.7 bn ≈ | 6.3 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 2.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 5.8 bn ≈ | 4.7 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 96 percentile of its own 26-quarter history (min 34.1, median 135.7, max 563.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.5 bn | 24.6 bn | 31.5 bn | 53.8 bn | 81.5 bn | 96.8 bn | 97.7 bn | 94.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +82.5% | +14.5% | +28.3% | +70.7% | +51.4% | +18.8% | +0.9% | −2.9% |
| Net income | -976.0 m | -862.0 m | 721.0 m | 5.5 bn | 12.6 bn | 15.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 3.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +665.5% | +127.5% | +19.4% | −52.7% | −46.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -1.14 | -0.98 | 0.21 | 1.63 | 3.62 | 4.30 | 2.04 | 1.08 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +676.2% | +122.1% | +18.8% | −52.6% | −47.1% |
| net % | -4.5% | -3.5% | 2.3% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| Free cash flow | -3.0 m | 1.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 5.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 6.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 16.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 8.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- -8.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 82.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 137.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 2.16x
- ROE
- 4.9%
- ROA
- 2.9%
- FCF margin
- 6.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 31.5 bn | 53.8 bn | 81.5 bn | 96.8 bn | 97.7 bn | 94.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 24.9 bn | 40.2 bn | 60.6 bn | 79.1 bn | 80.2 bn | 77.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 6.6 bn | 13.6 bn | 20.9 bn | 17.7 bn | 17.5 bn | 17.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Research & development | 1.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.5 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| SG&A | 3.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.0 bn | 6.5 bn | 13.7 bn | 8.9 bn | 7.1 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 748.0 m | 371.0 m | 191.0 m | 156.0 m | 350.0 m | 338.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 13.7 bn | 10.0 bn | 9.0 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Income tax | 292.0 m | 699.0 m | 1.1 bn | -5.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | 721.0 m | 5.5 bn | 12.6 bn | 15.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.21 | 1.63 | 3.62 | 4.30 | 2.04 | 1.08 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 19.4 bn | 17.6 bn | 16.3 bn | 16.4 bn | 16.1 bn | 16.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.1 bn | 5.8 bn | 12.8 bn | 13.6 bn | 12.0 bn | 12.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Current assets | 26.7 bn | 27.1 bn | 40.9 bn | 49.6 bn | 58.4 bn | 68.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.7 bn | 18.9 bn | 23.5 bn | 29.7 bn | 35.8 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 207.0 m | 200.0 m | 194.0 m | 253.0 m | 244.0 m | 257.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 313.0 m | 257.0 m | 215.0 m | 178.0 m | 150.0 m | 124.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Total assets | 52.1 bn | 62.1 bn | 82.3 bn | 106.6 bn | 122.1 bn | 137.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 6.1 bn | 10.0 bn | 15.3 bn | 14.4 bn | 12.5 bn | 13.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.8 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 8.5 bn | 4.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 14.2 bn | 19.7 bn | 26.7 bn | 28.7 bn | 28.8 bn | 31.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 28.4 bn | 30.5 bn | 36.4 bn | 43.0 bn | 48.4 bn | 54.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | 23.1 bn | 31.0 bn | 45.5 bn | 63.4 bn | 73.6 bn | 82.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 5.9 bn | 11.5 bn | 14.7 bn | 13.3 bn | 14.9 bn | 14.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.2 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.9 bn | 11.3 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.8 bn ≈ | 5.0 bn ≈ | 7.6 bn ≈ | 4.4 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 6.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.1 bn | -7.9 bn | -12.0 bn | -15.6 bn | -18.8 bn | -15.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 10.0 bn | -5.2 bn | -3.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 46 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1,522.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet91
- Growth22
- Valuation1
- Quality80
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.27 – 20.56 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)14.27 – 20.56 (Mid 16.72)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 3.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E17.74 – 19.57 (Mid 18.53)4 companies used · median multiple 20.4x · quartiles 19.6x – 21.6xFSS, GM, OSK, PCAR
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 46/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.6% | 71 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.1% | 76 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 102.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.2% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -33.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 78 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 424.6x | 0 (vs peers) | 15% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.2% | 3 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth22/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation1/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 94.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.9%; net margin 3.1%; ROE 3.8%.
The estimated value range is 16.00–20.06 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 17.62 USD, the price of 385.19 USD leaves a potential of -95.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -2,085.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 46/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 3.6%
- Net margin: 3.1%
- FCF conversion: 102.6%
- Interest coverage: 10.0x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -33.2%
- P/E (TTM): 424.6x
- FCF yield: 0.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 25 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | 1,522.6 bn | 424.6 | 3.8% | 3.1% | −2.9% | −13% / +75% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | 78.0 bn | 20.6 | 6.1% | 2.1% | −1.3% | +26% / +192% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | 55.9 bn | 20.2 | 13.7% | 9.5% | −15.5% | +1% / +16% |
| LILi Auto Inc. | 23.5 bn | 144.8 | 1.6% | 1.0% | −18.8% | −37% / −69% |
| RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc. | 20.5 bn | — | -55.0% | -45.9% | +8.4% | −17% / −16% |
| OSKOshkosh Corporation | 8.7 bn | 17.5 | 11.0% | 4.6% | −2.9% | +12% / +47% |
| NIONIO Inc. | 8.2 bn | — | -302.6% | -17.1% | +38.9% | −40% / −55% |
| VFSVinFast Auto Ltd. | 7.8 bn | — | — | -175.5% | +54.7% | +2% / −61% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | 7.2 bn | 24.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | +17.1% | +3% / +71% |
| LCIDLucid Group, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -571.4% | -249.2% | +67.6% | −75% / −92% |
| LOTLotus Technology Inc. | 217.2 m | — | — | -89.4% | −43.8% | −75% / −97% |
| NIUNiu Technologies | 115.3 m | — | -4.4% | -0.9% | +36.7% | −49% / −24% |
| GGRGogoro Inc. | 45.7 m | — | -56.2% | -28.4% | −9.4% | −23% / −94% |
| WKHSWorkhorse Group Inc. | 36.2 m | — | — | -301.5% | +201.1% | −69% / −100% |
| DCXDigital Currency X Technology Inc. | 21.5 m | — | — | -434.9% | −27.1% | −100% / −100% |
| FFAIFaraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. | 12.2 m | — | -2,030.5% | -21,838.0% | −0.6% | −100% / −100% |
| FLYEFly-E Group, Inc. | 2.8 m | — | -82.2% | -67.9% | −25.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| CENNCenntro Inc. | 434.8 k | — | -126.6% | -423.9% | −42.2% | −98% / −100% |
| FFord Motor Co | — | — | -18.4% | -4.2% | +1.2% | −5% / +23% |
| XPEVXpeng Inc. | — | — | -7.9% | -46.7% | unavailable | −55% / −41% |
| HMCHonda Motor Co., Ltd. | — | — | 6.7% | 3.9% | +6.2% | +16% / +15% |
| RACEFerrari N.V. | — | — | 42.9% | 22.3% | +7.0% | +10% / +20% |
| STLAStellantis N.V. | — | — | -33.0% | -14.5% | −2.1% | −56% / −79% |
| TMToyota Motor Corp | — | — | 13.6% | 9.9% | +6.5% | −1% / +5% |
| AIIORobo.ai Inc. | — | — | — | -17,614.9% | −92.1% | −96% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TSLA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 205.77 Total return -47% · Per year -47% | 363.66 Total return -6% · Per year -6% | 547.61 Total return 42% · Per year 42% |
| 3 years | 202.50 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 402.42 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 664.95 Total return 73% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 199.28 Total return -48% · Per year -12% | 445.32 Total return 16% · Per year 3% | 807.44 Total return 110% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 100.61
- Net margin± 70.42
- Annual revenue growth± 57.43
- Annual dilution± 5.92
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) describes its business as bringing artificial intelligence into the real world through electric vehicles, energy storage systems and software services such as FSD (Supervised) and Robotaxi 1. In fiscal 2025 total revenues were 94.83 billion USD and net income attributable to common stockholders was 3.79 billion USD 1. In the first nine months of fiscal 2026 revenues reached 78.67 billion USD 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- Vertical integration of vehicle, battery and software production allows the company to control costs and quality, as its own description states 1.
- Its own sales, service and charging network, including Superchargers, supports delivery and maintenance of its products 13.
- The company reported a record order rate and backlog for energy storage in Q3 2026, indicating solid demand 3.
Weaknesses
- Battery cell availability remains a limiting factor for production volume, and reliance on a few suppliers adds operational risk 13.
- Capital expenditure and research spending have risen, which could weigh on near-term profitability 2.
- Net income attributable to common stockholders fell in fiscal 2025 compared with the prior year, showing margin sensitivity 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Delays in product launches and production rampshigh
The company has experienced launch and ramp delays in the past and could face further difficulty reaching planned costs and volumes 1.
- Dependence on suppliers and battery cellshigh
Single-source suppliers and limited cell availability could interrupt production or raise costs 13.
- Trade policy and tariffsmedium
Changes in trade policy could affect supply chain costs and demand 12.
- Cyclicality of the auto industrymedium
Vehicle sales are cyclical and sensitive to interest rates, inflation and the liquidity of enterprise customers 12.
- Heavy capital expendituremedium
Investment in AI, factories and infrastructure could require additional funding if operating cash flow does not cover needs 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Robotaxi service and FSD subscriptions reach scale, the company could develop recurring software and fleet-based revenue 12.
- Demand for energy storage, supported by rising data center load, could sustain growth in the energy segment 3.
- Vertical integration and expanded in-house cell production could reduce supplier dependence and improve long-term margins 12.
What would break the thesis
- If tariffs and trade policy worsen, costs and demand could be hit, particularly in the energy segment 1.
- Rising capital and research spending could keep profitability under pressure if operating results do not improve enough 2.
- If new competitors and charging standards spread quickly, the company's current advantages could narrow 12.
What to watch
- Trend in vehicle deliveries and factory utilization ratesQ4 2026
- Expansion of the Robotaxi service and the number of FSD subscriptions2027
- Ramp of planned energy storage capacity at Megafactory Texas2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Tesla designs, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, selling mainly directly to customers through its own website and stores worldwide 1. The company operates two reportable segments: automotive and energy generation and storage 1. It stated it intends to use its current operations to develop and commercialize AI robots, including Optimus 1.
In fiscal 2025 the company produced about 1.66 million consumer vehicles and delivered about 1.64 million, and deployed 46.7 GWh of energy storage products 1. Its supply chain is partly vertically integrated, with factories in the U.S., China and Germany, while components come from thousands of suppliers 1.
In its Q3 2026 update the company reported that it launched Cybercab into the Robotaxi fleet in Austin and began Optimus production, while its AI compute infrastructure is expanding 3. It said battery availability remained the limiting factor for increasing automotive volumes 3.
Segments
Energy generation and storage
This segment includes Powerwall and Megapack storage products, solar panels and Solar Roof, plus the Autobidder and Powerhub software platforms 1. In Q3 2026 the company reported its highest-ever order rate and backlog for energy storage, and Megafactory Texas began production 3.
Market context
The company describes the electric vehicle and energy storage markets as cyclical and sensitive to consumer trends, regulatory uncertainty and financing costs 1. Demand for storage is supported by rising data center load, which the company said could keep driving demand for its products 3.
Trade tariffs and fiscal policy, including the removal of electric vehicle tax credits, could affect demand and costs, and the impact could be larger for the energy segment than for automotive 12.
Trends
- Robotaxi and software-based servicestailwind
The company launched its Robotaxi service in June 2025 and is expanding the fleet with Cybercab, which could open a service-driven business model built on fleet profits 12.
- Storage demand tied to AI infrastructuretailwind
Rising data center load makes energy storage more attractive, and the company says demand could stay high 13.
- Trade policy and tariffsheadwind
Tariffs and retaliatory measures could raise component costs and weigh on consumer demand, with a larger effect on the energy segment 1.
- Battery availabilitymixed
The company states battery availability limits vehicle volume, but investments in 4680 and LFP cells could reduce that dependence 3.
Competitive position
The company notes that several automakers are adopting the NACS charging standard and that new entrants could change market dynamics 1. Competition is named as a factor that could affect the company's momentum 2.
In energy storage the company faces suppliers and producers offering similar solutions, and its vertical integration is presented as a competitive advantage 1.
- Traditional automakers adopting NACS
Automakers named in the filing that have announced adoption of the NACS charging standard for access to the charging network.
- Panasonic
Supplier of lithium-ion battery cells for vehicles and storage products, named as a current source for the company.
- Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL)
Lithium-ion battery cell supplier named in the filing as a current source of cells.
- New entrants in electric vehicles
New manufacturers named in the filing that could enter the market and influence competition.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Un avion spre Moscova cu trei apropiați ai lui Aleksandar Vucic la bord a fost întors de urgență la Belgrad. Opoziția acuză că ar fi încercat să fugăLibertatea.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Cei mai mari câștigători și perdanți ai alegerilor din SUASpotMedia.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Elon Musk, prima țintă a unei grupări clandestine care a pornit o campanie împotriva miliardarilor americani. Cine se află în spatele planuluiMediafax · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Уолл-стрит закрылась в заметном плюсе после выборов в Конгресс СШАInterfax Russia (RU) · 05 Nov 2026 · RU
- Elon Musk’s nearly half a billion dollars in midterms spending was a flopThe Guardian World · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Miliardarii din industria tehnologică americană, marii perdanţi ai alegerilor pentru Congresul SUA - afaceri.newsSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- 🇺🇸 ⚡ Elon Musk lost around $30 bln following the announcement of preliminary res…Telegram — Intel Slava Z (pro-RU OSINT EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Bilanțul lui Musk după alegerile din SUA: peste 458 de milioane de dolari cheltuiți, 44 de înfrângeri și 18 victoriiMediafax · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Pariul de 474 de milioane de dolari al lui Elon Musk a fost un eșec total: acțiunile Tesla și SpaceX, în cădere după alegerile din SUALibertatea.ro · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Politician Bypasses Preflight Security Checkpoint, Prompting Moscow-Bound Jet To DivertSimple Flying · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Маск потерял десятки миллиардов после поражения республиканцев на выборахRBC News (RU business+politics) · 04 Nov 2026 · RU
- Musk’s Tesla, SpaceX slide as Democrats take control of CongressAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Not even $200 million could help Elon Musk buy TexasThe Verge · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- JUST IN - SpaceX, Tesla and AI stocks fall after Democrats dominate US electionsTelegram — Insider Paper (EN, defense leaks) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Lovitură pentru Elon Musk după alegerile din SUA. Acțiunile Tesla și SpaceX s-au prăbușit după victoria democrațilorAntena 3 CNN · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Tesla and SpaceX shares slide as Musk’s political push falls flatMarketWatch — Top Stories · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Trump Media, Tesla, CoreWeave, Novo Nordisk and moreCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Акции Tesla и SpaceX упали после поражения республиканцев на выборахKommersant (RU) · 04 Nov 2026 · RU
- Musk makes light of defeats after record spend on Republican candidatesAl Jazeera English · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Акции компаний Маска упали на фоне предварительных результатов выборовRBC News (RU business+politics) · 04 Nov 2026 · RU
SEC filings
- Quarterly report22 Oct 2026
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement19 Oct 2026
- Current report02 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Sept 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report (amendment)30 Apr 2026
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Tesla, Inc. · 29 Jan 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Tesla, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Tesla, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.