olivLaw · US equity research
Ford Motor Company F
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · SIC 3711 · Vertical: Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711)
Ford Motor Company, based in Dearborn, Michigan, makes trucks, SUVs, commercial vehicles and Lincoln luxury cars, and runs a financing arm through Ford Credit. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported revenue of 48.3 billion USD and raised its full-year guidance, which puts the focus on how it balances its core business with spending on electric vehicles.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ford Motor Company (F) stock was 12.67 USD (+2.92% on the day), with market capitalisation 47.2 bn USD, dividend yield 4.74%, beta 0.94, 52-week range 11.21–17.44 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 49.5 bn USD (−2.0% YoY), net income of 2.0 bn USD (−16.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.50 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.55 – 12.70
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 9.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.80 / 13.33
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.22
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.3% | −1.1% | +5.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.3% | −0.5% | −9.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +4.1% | +4.4% | −0.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −3.4% | +12.3% | −15.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −0.9% | +13.5% | −14.5 pp | −40.0% |
| 3 years | +20.0% | +76.4% | −56.4 pp | −57.7% |
| 5 years | −34.3% | +63.7% | −98.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 48.2 bn | 40.7 bn | 50.2 bn | 50.5 bn | 45.9 bn | 43.3 bn | 48.3 bn | 49.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 41.3 bn | 35.2 bn | 44.2 bn | 43.4 bn | 51.6 bn | 35.3 bn | 42.2 bn | 42.1 bn |
| SG&A | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Operating income | 1.2 bn | 319.0 m | 511.0 m | 1.6 bn | -11.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 638.0 m | 1.5 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 10.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Interest expense | — | 288.0 m | 297.0 m | 321.0 m | 348.0 m | 350.0 m | 357.0 m | 385.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.3 bn | 621.0 m | 541.0 m | 1.8 bn | -14.8 bn | 2.9 bn | -2.0 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Income tax | 483.0 m | 148.0 m | 570.0 m | -630.0 m | -3.8 bn | 361.0 m | -711.0 m | 97.0 m |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 471.0 m | -36.0 m | 2.4 bn | -11.1 bn | 2.6 bn | -1.3 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 0.45 ≈ | 0.12 | -0.01 | 0.60 | -2.88 ≈ | 0.63 | -0.33 | 0.50 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 6.3 bn ≈ | 7.4 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn | 1.3 bn | 4.3 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 2.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 596.0 m | 1.2 bn | 597.0 m ≈ | 597.0 m ≈ | 599.0 m | 607.0 m | 599.0 m ≈ | 598.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 150.0 m | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 311.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 160.3 bn | 155.9 bn | 127.1 bn | 136.3 bn | 158.1 bn | 176.2 bn | 185.0 bn | 187.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +2.3% | −2.8% | −18.4% | +7.2% | +15.9% | +11.5% | +5.0% | +1.2% |
| Net income | 3.7 bn | 84.0 m | -1.3 bn | 17.9 bn | -2.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.9 bn | -8.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | −52.4% | −97.7% | −1,619.0% | unavailable | −111.0% | unavailable | +35.2% | −238.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.92 | 0.01 | -0.32 | 4.45 | -0.49 | 1.08 | 1.46 | -2.06 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −52.3% | −98.9% | −3,300.0% | unavailable | −111.0% | unavailable | +35.2% | −241.1% |
| net % | 2.3% | 0.1% | -1.0% | 13.2% | -1.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| Free cash flow | 7.2 bn | 10.0 bn | 18.5 bn | 9.6 bn | -13.0 m | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 12.5 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 23.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 36.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 289.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.07x
- ROE
- -20.2%
- ROA
- -2.8%
- FCF margin
- 6.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 127.1 bn | 136.3 bn | 158.1 bn | 176.2 bn | 185.0 bn | 187.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 112.8 bn | 114.7 bn | 134.4 bn | 150.6 bn | 158.4 bn | 174.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 14.4 bn ≈ | 21.7 bn ≈ | 23.7 bn ≈ | 25.6 bn ≈ | 26.6 bn ≈ | 12.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 7.1 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.0 bn | 9.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 10.2 bn | 11.9 bn | 10.9 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -4.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.2 bn | -9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.8 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.6 bn | 16.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 4.4 bn ≈ | 11.8 bn ≈ | 14.0 bn ≈ | 13.1 bn ≈ | 12.8 bn ≈ | 6.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 5.1 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 7.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.1 bn | 17.8 bn | -3.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 7.2 bn | -11.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 160.0 m | -130.0 m | -864.0 m | -362.0 m | 1.3 bn | -3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.3 bn | 17.9 bn | -2.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.9 bn | -8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.32 | 4.45 | -0.49 | 1.08 | 1.46 | -2.06 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.78 | 0.75 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 25.2 bn | 20.5 bn | 25.1 bn | 24.9 bn | 22.9 bn | 23.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 10.0 bn | 11.4 bn | 15.7 bn | 15.6 bn | 14.7 bn | 15.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 10.8 bn | 12.1 bn | 14.1 bn | 15.7 bn | 15.0 bn | 15.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 116.7 bn | 109.0 bn | 116.5 bn | 121.5 bn | 124.5 bn | 123.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 37.1 bn | 37.1 bn | 37.3 bn | 40.8 bn | 41.9 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 258.0 m | 619.0 m | 603.0 m | 683.0 m | 658.0 m | 483.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 144.0 m | 111.0 m | 86.0 m | 80.0 m | 69.0 m | 170.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 267.3 bn | 257.0 bn | 255.9 bn | 273.3 bn | 285.2 bn | 289.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 22.2 bn | 22.3 bn | 25.6 bn | 26.0 bn | 24.1 bn | 25.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 291.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2021verified |
| Current liabilities | 97.2 bn | 90.7 bn | 96.9 bn | 101.5 bn | 106.9 bn | 114.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 236.5 bn | 208.4 bn | 212.7 bn | 230.5 bn | 240.3 bn | 253.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 30.8 bn | 48.6 bn | 43.2 bn | 42.8 bn | 44.9 bn | 36.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 24.3 bn | 15.8 bn | 6.9 bn | 14.9 bn | 15.4 bn | 21.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 5.7 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.9 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 18.5 bn ≈ | 9.6 bn ≈ | -13.0 m ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 12.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -18.6 bn | 2.7 bn | -4.3 bn | -17.6 bn | -24.4 bn | -18.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.3 bn | -23.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 7.5 bn | -3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 596.0 m | 403.0 m | 2.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 484.0 m | 335.0 m | 426.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 47.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.86 – 13.25 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)9.86 – 13.25 (Mid 11.31)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -4.2% | 60 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.8% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -5.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 24 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 10.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.7% | 82 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 46.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet9/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial48/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial60/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns89/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Ford Motor Co (F). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 187.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.2%; net margin -4.2%; ROE -18.4%.
The estimated value range is 9.86–13.25 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.31 USD, the price of 12.67 USD leaves a potential of -10.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -12.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF yield: 10.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 46.7%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: -5.0x
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies (SIC 3711) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 25 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | 1,522.6 bn | 424.6 | 3.8% | 3.1% | −2.9% | −10% / +60% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | 78.0 bn | 20.6 | 6.1% | 2.1% | −1.3% | +26% / +192% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | 55.9 bn | 20.2 | 13.7% | 9.5% | −15.5% | +1% / +16% |
| LILi Auto Inc. | 23.5 bn | 144.8 | 1.6% | 1.0% | −18.8% | −37% / −69% |
| RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc. | 20.5 bn | — | -55.0% | -45.9% | +8.4% | −17% / −16% |
| OSKOshkosh Corporation | 8.7 bn | 17.5 | 11.0% | 4.6% | −2.9% | +12% / +47% |
| NIONIO Inc. | 8.2 bn | — | -302.6% | -17.1% | +38.9% | −40% / −55% |
| VFSVinFast Auto Ltd. | 7.8 bn | — | — | -175.5% | +54.7% | +2% / −61% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | 7.2 bn | 24.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | +17.1% | +3% / +71% |
| LCIDLucid Group, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -571.4% | -249.2% | +67.6% | −75% / −92% |
| LOTLotus Technology Inc. | 217.2 m | — | — | -89.4% | −43.8% | −75% / −97% |
| NIUNiu Technologies | 115.3 m | — | -4.4% | -0.9% | +36.7% | −49% / −24% |
| GGRGogoro Inc. | 45.7 m | — | -56.2% | -28.4% | −9.4% | −23% / −94% |
| WKHSWorkhorse Group Inc. | 36.2 m | — | — | -301.5% | +201.1% | −69% / −100% |
| DCXDigital Currency X Technology Inc. | 21.5 m | — | — | -434.9% | −27.1% | −100% / −100% |
| FFAIFaraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. | 12.2 m | — | -2,030.5% | -21,838.0% | −0.6% | −100% / −100% |
| FLYEFly-E Group, Inc. | 2.8 m | — | -82.2% | -67.9% | −25.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| CENNCenntro Inc. | 434.8 k | — | -126.6% | -423.9% | −42.2% | −98% / −100% |
| FFord Motor Co | — | — | -18.4% | -4.2% | +1.2% | −1% / +20% |
| HMCHonda Motor Co., Ltd. | — | — | 6.7% | 3.9% | +6.2% | +16% / +15% |
| RACEFerrari N.V. | — | — | 42.9% | 22.3% | +7.0% | +10% / +20% |
| XPEVXpeng Inc. | — | — | -7.9% | -46.7% | unavailable | −55% / −41% |
| STLAStellantis N.V. | — | — | -33.0% | -14.5% | −2.1% | −56% / −79% |
| AIIORobo.ai Inc. | — | — | — | -17,614.9% | −92.1% | −96% / −100% |
| TMToyota Motor Corp | — | — | 13.6% | 9.9% | +6.5% | −1% / +5% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for F from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Ford Motor Company, based in Dearborn, Michigan, makes trucks, SUVs, commercial vehicles and Lincoln luxury cars, and runs a financing arm through Ford Credit. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported revenue of 48.3 billion USD and raised its full-year guidance, which puts the focus on how it balances its core business with spending on electric vehicles 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a strong position in trucks and off-road vehicles, which bring good margins and pricing power 3. Ford Pro remains an important profit contributor, and Ford Credit adds steady results 3.
- The company has a broad dealer network and a strong global presence, giving it commercial flexibility 1. Operating cash flow remains solid, which supports strategic investment 3.
- Ford has shown discipline in execution and cost reduction, which helped improve profitability in the first half of 2026 3.
Weaknesses
- The electric vehicle segment is still loss-making, and the company has absorbed impairments and costs from cancelled programs 13. This burden weighs on overall results and on the capacity to fund new investment.
- The company depends on external suppliers for components and raw materials, and supply interruptions can halt production 12. A high share of fixed costs means volume changes have large effects on profitability 1.
- The net result was negative in the second quarter of 2026, due to special items linked to BOSK and to cancelled electric programs 3.
Opportunities
- If profitability in Ford Blue and Ford Pro holds, the company could more easily fund new technologies, including Ford Energy 3. Recovering lost output in the second half of the year could add further positive impact 2.
- Cost reductions and quality gains could strengthen its position in the US market, where its share has risen 13. Connected services and fleet solutions could create more recurring revenue.
- Tariff reimbursements could lower the company's net costs if they arrive on the expected timeline 2.
Threats
- Trade policy and tariffs could raise costs and uncertainty across the supply chain 1. Regulatory changes may also influence demand for electric vehicles.
- Competitive pressure and excess industry capacity could keep prices under strain, especially in the electric segment 1.
- High borrowing costs and persistent inflation could weigh on consumer demand and on Ford Credit's margins 1.
Risks
- Recalls and warranty costshigh
Product defects can lead to recalls, higher warranty costs and delayed model launches 1. If these costs rise above expectations, financial results could be significantly affected 1.
- Supplier dependencehigh
The company relies on a complex supplier network, and a disruption at one critical supplier can halt production 12. Recovering lost volumes may be limited, which could affect revenue 1.
- Electric vehicle strategymedium
Slow EV adoption and policy changes could lead to further impairments or program cancellations 12. The additional costs of these actions could exceed current estimates 1.
- Trade policy and tariffsmedium
Tariffs and export restrictions can raise production costs and delay expected reimbursements 12. Uncertainty about the timing of refunds makes short-term financial planning harder 2.
- Financing and macro riskslow
High interest rates can raise the cost of capital and could compress Ford Credit's margin if funding becomes more expensive 1. Inflation and government debt may keep cost pressure elevated 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Ford keeps improving profitability in its traditional segments and cutting costs, it could reach its raised full-year 2026 guidance 3. Pricing power in trucks and off-road models could support margins over the medium term 3.
- Capital discipline and lower losses in the electric segment could free resources for new technology investment 13. Recovering output hit by the supplier fires could add revenue in the second half of the year 2.
- Diversification into connected services, fleet solutions and vehicle financing could create steadier income streams 13.
What would break the thesis
- If demand for electric vehicles stays weak, losses in the Model e segment could continue and may require further impairments 13. Extra costs tied to cancelled programs could exceed current estimates 1.
- Tariffs and trade policy uncertainty could compress margins and delay expected reimbursements 12. Competitive pressure could limit price increases in key markets 1.
- Dependence on external suppliers and repeated supply interruptions could continue to hit production and revenue 12.
What to watch
- Adjusted EBIT trajectory against the raised guidance rangeQ3 2026
- Timing and amount of tariff reimbursements, including IEEPA-related amounts2026
- Recovery of output and cost effects from the Novelis aluminum firesnext 10-Q
- Ford Model e losses and progress of the UEV platform and Ford Energy investments2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Ford Motor Company was incorporated in Delaware in 1919 and is headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan, with about 169,000 employees worldwide 1. It sells the Ford and Lincoln brands through independent dealerships and offers connected services such as BlueCruise and security features 1. Its Ford+ plan aims for a higher-growth, higher-margin and more capital-efficient company 1.
The business is organized into three segments: Ford Blue for internal combustion and hybrid vehicles, Ford Model e for electric vehicles and related software, and Ford Pro for commercial, government and rental customers 1. Ford Credit provides vehicle financing through dealers, with most of its business in the United States and Canada 1.
In 2025 the company sold about 4,395,000 vehicles at wholesale worldwide, slightly below the prior year 12. Volumes depend on industry demand, dealer inventory levels and the ability to keep production running despite supply disruptions 1.
Segments
Market context
The United States is Ford's largest market, where its sales rose in 2025 and its market share reached 13.2% 1. The industry is highly competitive, with excess capacity and pricing pressure, and the company's guidance assumes a US annual selling rate between 16.0 and 16.5 million units 13.
Demand for electric vehicles has slowed, and US policy changes have reduced incentives for them 1. The company has cancelled several EV programs and recorded significant impairments, which shows how volatile this market is for a traditional automaker 12.
Trends
- Trade tariffsmixed
Tariffs have raised costs and uncertainty across the industry, and Ford reported gross tariff costs of about 3 billion USD in 2025 1. The company expects around 3 billion USD of reimbursements, but their timing is uncertain and depends on trade policy 2.
- Demand for electric vehiclesheadwind
Adoption of EVs has been below expectations, and reduced incentives could prolong the underuse of production capacity 1. Ford's rationalized EV plans could reduce future losses but may also limit growth in that segment 12.
- Demand for trucks and off-road vehiclestailwind
Trucks, SUVs and off-road models supported pricing power and better margins in the second quarter of 2026 3. If demand for these vehicles stays solid, it could support the company's financial results 3.
- Raw material costs and supply disruptionsmixed
Fires at a major aluminum supplier affected production, and raw material prices remain volatile 12. The company expects to partly recover lost output in the second half of the year, but the final impact is uncertain 2.
Competitive position
The auto industry has many producers and no single dominant global player, and in many countries a few manufacturers account for most sales 1. Competition includes traditional automakers and new entrants in electric vehicles, which pushes down prices and margins 1.
Ford faces pricing pressure and excess capacity, especially in electric vehicles, where demand has been weaker than expected 1. Its strength remains a strong presence in the truck market and in commercial vehicles 3.
- General MotorsGM
A US automaker in the same category, facing similar pricing pressure and the transition to electric vehicles, as described in the industry context of the Ford sources.
- Asian and European automakers
Global competitors cited in the industry analysis, which add pressure on prices and compete in international markets.
- Electric vehicle makers
New entrants in the electric segment that have changed industry dynamics and influenced demand and prices for battery vehicles.
- Battery and raw material suppliers
Supply chain players whose costs and availability of components affect automakers producing electric vehicles.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- The hidden supply chain costs of the AI boomThe Verge · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Cei mai mari câștigători și perdanți ai alegerilor din SUASpotMedia.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- „Premiere” istorice în alegerile intermediare din SUA - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Ford ousts Lombardo in battleground Nevada governor’s raceThe Hill · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Alegeri în SUA: Premiere istorice pentru femei și minorități - radioromania.roSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Anti-Ukraine Incumbents Lose in Half-Dozen Congressional RacesKyiv Post · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Eat your way through Nashville with this credit cardThe Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- HARTĂ. Cele mai profitabile firme din fiecare județ al României. Bucureștiul și două județe concentrează peste jumătate din profiturile companiilorStartupCafe.ro · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford beats GOP incumbent for governorNPR News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Trăia într-o dubă și era ospătar, dar o întâmplare a schimbat totul pentru Chris Pratt. Azi e ginerele lui Arnold și star de cinema - Film NowSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alegeri SUA 2026. Victorie zdrobitoare a democraților care obțin majoritatea în Camera Reprezentanților și în Senat. Surprize uriașe în mai multe stateMediafax · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- US Congress turns blue, Trump keeps the veto—and Ukraine’s balance sheet in Washington gets both wins and lossesEuromaidan Press (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Înfrângeri majore ale republicanilor, inclusiv în Texas. Elon Musk reacționează furios, ce spune Donald Trump - Aktual24Surge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Înfrângeri majore ale republicanilor, inclusiv în Texas. Elon Musk reacționează furios, ce spune Donald Trump - Aktual24Surge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Un criminal condamnat pe viață în SUA a evadat din închisoare și a fost prins după nouă zile. Cadavrul victimei fusese ascuns sub casa saMediafax · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Republicana de origine ucraineană care a votat împotriva Ucrainei în Congresul SUA a pierdut alegerileMediafax · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- LIVE TEXT | Midterms 2026. Rezultatele alegerilor din SUA. Democrații vor câștiga Congresul. Victorii în Senat și în districte din state-cheie - PRO TV ChisinauSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alegeri SUA 2026. Victorie zdrobitoare a democraților care obțin majoritatea în Camera Reprezentanților și în SenatMediafax · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Rezultat istoric pentru democrați în Texas: James Talarico câștigă cursa pentru SenatG4Media · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alegeri importante în America. Inflația și costul vieții, printre principalele nemulțumiri ale alegătorilor - TargovisteNEWSSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ford Motor Company · 11 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Ford Motor Company · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ford Motor Company · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.