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Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU

Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals · SIC 3350 · Vertical: Primary metal industries (SIC 335x)

110.74USD−6.23% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Kaiser Aluminum makes specialty semi-fabricated aluminum products for aerospace, beverage and food packaging, general engineering and automotive extrusion customers. In fiscal 2025 the company reported net sales of 3.37 billion USD, and in the third quarter of 2026 it reported Adjusted EBITDA of 84 million USD as its balance sheet improved.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) stock was 110.74 USD (−6.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.8 bn USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 12.93 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.78%, beta 1.47, 52-week range 89.62–195.63 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+44.0% YoY), net income of 31.0 m USD (−21.5% YoY), diluted EPS 1.84 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.8 bn USD
shares as of 19 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6
Diluted EPS TTM 12.93 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
11.68%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.78%
DPS 12m 3.08
Beta (2y)
1.47
Volatility (1y) 58%
52-week range
89.62195.63

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
31.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
95.91 – 169.09
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.20 · band width 55.2%
SMA 50 / 200
146.21 / 153.12
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-10.47 / -9.08
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−28.9%−1.1%−27.8 pp—
3 months−37.8%−0.5%−37.4 pp—
6 months−38.6%+4.4%−43.0 pp—
Year to date−3.6%+12.3%−15.9 pp—
1 year+21.4%+13.5%+7.8 pp+2.4%
3 years+88.1%+76.4%+11.7 pp+112.0%
5 years+3.2%+63.7%−60.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−46.1%
30 Jun 2026 → 26 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−54.3%
08 Nov 2021 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+0.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.2 bn USD
+44.0% YoY
Net income
31.0 m USD
−21.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.84
−22.7% YoY
net / operating
2.6% / 4.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue765.4 m777.4 m823.1 m843.5 m929.0 m1.1 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn
Cost of revenue669.5 m673.4 m722.8 m728.8 m805.6 m943.2 m1.1 bn1.1 bn
Operating income38.5 m41.4 m38.0 m48.8 m60.6 m97.8 m133.7 m55.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation29.6 m30.0 m29.6 m32.0 m30.9 m30.4 m29.6 m27.9 m
Interest expense10.4 m11.2 m12.5 m12.4 m14.0 m14.4 m14.5 m14.2 m
Pre-tax income28.5 m28.8 m29.9 m47.8 m43.5 m82.4 m126.3 m40.2 m
Income tax8.7 m7.2 m6.7 m8.3 m15.3 m19.9 m29.5 m9.2 m
Net income19.8 m21.6 m23.2 m39.5 m28.2 m62.5 m96.8 m31.0 m
Diluted EPS1.21 ≈1.311.412.381.66 ≈3.715.721.84
Operating cash flow43.4 m57.0 m15.9 m ≈59.1 m ≈-20.6 m87.9 m59.5 m ≈100.7 m ≈
Capex56.0 m38.2 m43.6 m ≈24.6 m ≈30.5 m19.4 m24.4 m ≈28.4 m ≈
Dividends paid12.7 m12.9 m12.8 m ≈12.8 m ≈12.8 m13.6 m12.8 m ≈12.8 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 11.2, median 18.2, max 424.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.6 bn1.5 bn1.2 bn2.6 bn3.4 bn3.1 bn3.0 bn3.4 bn
Revenue YoY+13.5%−4.5%−22.5%+123.6%+30.7%−9.9%−2.0%+11.5%
Net income91.7 m62.0 m28.8 m-18.5 m-29.6 m67.8 m65.7 m112.5 m
Net income YoY+102.0%−32.4%−53.5%−164.2%unavailableunavailable−3.1%+71.2%
Diluted EPS5.433.831.81-1.17-1.864.214.026.77
Diluted EPS YoY+106.5%−29.5%−52.7%−164.6%unavailableunavailable−4.5%+68.4%
net %5.8%4.1%2.5%-0.7%-0.9%2.2%2.2%3.3%
Free cash flow76.1 m172.1 m155.0 m21.4 m-205.6 m68.7 m-13.7 m-25.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
7.0 m USD
Financial debt
1.1 bn USD
Net debt
1.1 bn USD
Equity
826.1 m USD
Total assets
2.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.28x
Current ratio
2.95x
ROE
14.3%
ROA
4.5%
FCF margin
-0.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
358.8 m ≈
2024
357.4 m ≈
2025
442.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
11.1 m
2024
12.0 m
2025
10.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
122.5 m
2024
112.2 m
2025
188.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
108.6 m
2024
116.4 m
2025
122.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
231.1 m ≈
2024
228.6 m ≈
2025
311.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
46.9 m
2024
43.7 m
2025
50.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
83.0 m
2024
88.0 m
2025
150.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
15.2 m
2024
22.3 m
2025
37.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
67.8 m
2024
65.7 m
2025
112.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.21
2024
4.02
2025
6.77

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
16.1 m
2024
16.3 m
2025
16.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
3.08
2024
3.08
2025
3.08

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
82.4 m
2024
18.4 m
2025
7.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
325.2 m
2024
319.7 m
2025
423.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2026verified

Inventories
2023
550.7 m
2024
601.9 m
2025
725.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
990.2 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
18.8 m
2024
18.8 m
2025
18.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
50.0 m
2024
45.5 m
2025
41.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
252.7 m
2024
266.9 m
2025
274.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
370.0 m
2024
400.5 m
2025
427.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
708.4 m †
2024
743.1 m †
2025
826.1 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
211.9 m
2024
167.1 m
2025
111.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
143.2 m
2024
180.8 m
2025
136.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
68.7 m ≈
2024
-13.7 m ≈
2025
-25.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-128.2 m
2024
-174.6 m
2025
-77.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-54.3 m
2024
-55.3 m
2025
-44.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
50.4 m
2024
50.7 m
2025
51.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
23.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
68.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
71.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
31.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
68.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
30.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
24.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
15.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
23.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
41.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
921.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
6.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
227.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
102.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
124.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
57.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
48.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
37 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
72 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
11.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
7.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
14.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
3.05
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 51 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

110.74 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
24.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 19 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 2891derived 192

Score by group

  • Valuation73
  • Returns65
  • Quality37
  • Balance sheet51
  • Growth0

Estimated value range

Low
95.68
USD per share
Mid
206.65
USD per share
High
361.63
USD per share
Price: 110.74 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 86.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 46.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 79.51 – 510.03 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)95.68 – 214.30 (Mid 137.43)
    WACC 7.5% · starting FCFF 167.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -6.6%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA79.51 – 361.63 (Mid 206.65)
    5 companies used · median multiple 9.2x · quartiles 4.8x – 14.7x
    APWC, BDC, HWM, MLI, NX
  • Peers: P/E159.70 – 510.03 (Mid 300.21)
    8 companies used · median multiple 23.2x · quartiles 12.3x – 39.4x
    APWC, BDC, GLW, HWM, MLI, NX, OCC, TG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate40.47 – 54.43 (Mid 46.43)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Primary metal industries (SIC 335x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 51/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality13.9%33 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality4.8%43 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality57.1%39 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-0.5%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.0x20 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.1x70 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.6x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.6x75 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.9x60 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation6.9%86 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.9%41 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns41.7%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality37/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION (KALU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.5%; net margin 4.8%; ROE 24.5%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.

The estimated value range is 95.68–361.63 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 206.65 USD, the price of 110.74 USD leaves a potential of 86.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 46.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 51/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Interest coverage: 6.1x
  • Current ratio: 2.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 8.6x
  • FCF yield: 6.9%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 41.7%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 2.0x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.

Versus the vertical median

Primary metal industries (SIC 335x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.6x
vertical median 23.2x
below median (−63.1%)
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
vertical median 9.2x
below median (−36.5%)
P/S
0.4x
vertical median 1.3x
below median (−69.4%)
P/B
1.9x
vertical median 3.2x
below median (−41.8%)
ROE
24.5%
vertical median 15.7%
above median (+56.6%)
Net margin
4.8%
vertical median 5.6%
below median (−13.8%)
EBIT margin
7.7%
vertical median 9.0%
below median (−14.3%)
Revenue YoY
11.5%
vertical median 11.0%
at median
Net debt/EBITDA
2.0x
vertical median -0.2x
above median
Dividend yield
2.8%
vertical median 0.9%
above median (+194.9%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
GLWCorning Inc102.3 bn48.117.1%12.1%+19.1%+41% / +317%
HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.84.9 bn41.837.7%21.1%+11.1%+4% / +306%
MLIMueller Industries, Inc12.0 bn13.926.2%17.3%+10.9%+0% / +166%
BDCBelden Inc.4.1 bn23.613.4%5.6%+10.3%−7% / +58%
KALUKaiser Aluminum Corporation1.8 bn8.624.5%4.8%+11.5%+21% / +88%
NXQuanex Building Products Corporation1.0 bn22.86.2%2.4%+43.8%+74% / −27%
TGTredegar Corporation254.4 m7.615.8%—+16.1%−7% / +55%
OCCOptical Cable Corporation99.1 m38.615.6%3.1%+9.5%+38% / +329%
APWCAsia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation Limited23.1 m6.62.2%0.7%+11.0%−34% / −17%

1- and 3-year price returns: for KALU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Allowed range: -10 … 20%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
64.21
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
113.81
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
171.83
Total return 59% · Per year 59%
3 years
56.17
Total return -43% · Per year -17%
112.59
Total return 10% · Per year 3%
187.51
Total return 80% · Per year 22%
5 years
49.13
Total return -46% · Per year -12%
111.39
Total return 15% · Per year 3%
204.62
Total return 104% · Per year 15%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 28.15
  • Net margin± 19.70
  • Annual revenue growth± 16.99
  • Annual dilution± 1.66

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Kaiser Aluminum makes specialty semi-fabricated aluminum products for aerospace, beverage and food packaging, general engineering and automotive extrusion customers. In fiscal 2025 the company reported net sales of 3.37 billion USD, and in the third quarter of 2026 it reported Adjusted EBITDA of 84 million USD as its balance sheet improved 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds leading positions in niches with demanding technical requirements, and its customers are largely blue-chip firms 1.
  • KaiserSelect® products and the coating capacity at Warrick support differentiation and better margins 1.
  • The balance sheet improved in 2026, with liquidity and credit rating rising 3.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on a small group of large customers could expose the company to major revenue losses 1.
  • The company cannot always pass through fluctuations in energy and certain raw material costs to customers 1.
  • Production efficiency has been hit by planned outages and new line start-up costs in fiscal 2025 and 2026 13.

Opportunities

  • If demand for added capacity keeps growing, the company could capitalize on its investments at Trentwood and Warrick 3.
  • Growing sustainability of aluminum packaging could support long-term demand 1.
  • Lighter vehicle designs could increase the use of aluminum extrusions 1.

Threats

  • Foreign competitors with lower costs and possible dumping could pressure prices 1.
  • Changes in fuel efficiency rules could reduce demand from automotive and aerospace 1.
  • Shifts in trade policy and tariffs could disrupt supply chains 1.

Risks

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    A small number of large customers account for a significant part of sales, and losing one could materially affect results 1.

  • Aerospace cyclicalityhigh

    Downturns in the aerospace industry could reduce orders and deliveries of aircraft products 1.

  • Unrecovered costsmedium

    Energy, certain raw materials and freight cannot always be passed through to customers, and pricing pressure may increase 1.

  • International competitionmedium

    Producers in other countries may have lower costs, and tariffs may not be fully effective in offsetting them 1.

  • Environmental and fuel policylow

    Changes in emissions and fuel efficiency rules could alter demand for the company's products 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If conversion revenue and margins keep improving, results could support sustained growth 3.
  • A stronger balance sheet and a better credit rating could give flexibility for investment and dividends 3.
  • Customers appear to be seeking longer-term supply and added capacity, which could support growth plans 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If aluminum prices fall, metal price lag could reduce earnings, as it did against the prior year 3.
  • Dependence on a few large customers and cyclical sectors could make results more volatile 1.
  • Operational issues and start-up costs of new lines could keep weighing on margins in the short term 3.

What to watch

  • Trend in conversion revenue and Adjusted EBITDA marginQ4 2026
  • Evolution of metal price lag and its effect on results2027
  • 2027 guidance and capacity plansnext 10-K
  • CEO transition and the strategy of incoming leadership2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, a Delaware corporation, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated aluminum mill products including flat-rolled plate, sheet and coil, extruded and drawn products, and certain cast aluminum products 1. The company focuses on end markets with demanding applications and high barriers to entry, where it aims to earn premium pricing and long-term profitable growth 1. Recent investments, such as the fourth coating line at Warrick and the Trentwood modernization, aim to increase capacity, cost efficiency and KaiserSelect® product quality 1.

Segments

Packaging

Packaging products are bare and coated aluminum coil sold mainly to North American beverage and food can makers under long-term agreements 1. It was the largest segment in fiscal 2025 with net sales of 1489.6 million USD, and in the third quarter of 2026 the shift toward higher value coated products continued to support margins 13.

Market context

The semi-fabricated aluminum market is highly competitive, and producers abroad may have lower manufacturing costs 1. Aerospace demand is cyclical but supported by growing air travel and fuel efficiency needs, while packaging demand is supported by the recyclability of aluminum 1.

Competitive position

Primary competitors in the global aerospace market are Arconic Corporation, Constellium N.V. and Novelis Inc., while in packaging Tri-Arrows Aluminum, Inc. also competes 1. For GE Products and automotive extrusions, the main rivals are Arconic Corporation and Norsk Hydro ASA, and some competitors are larger with greater financial resources 1.

  • Arconic Corporation

    Main competitor across aerospace, packaging, GE Products and automotive extrusions, as named in the company's filings.

  • Constellium N.V.

    Competitor in aerospace products and in packaging in North America.

  • Novelis Inc.

    Competitor in aerospace products and in packaging.

  • Norsk Hydro ASA

    Competitor for GE Products and automotive extrusions in North America.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Kaiser Aluminum Corporation · 19 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Kaiser Aluminum Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Kaiser Aluminum Corporation · 21 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.