olivLaw · US equity research
LGI Homes, Inc. LGIH
Operative Builders · SIC 1531 · Vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)
LGI Homes builds and sells new homes, mainly entry-level homes for first-time buyers, across several US states, and its activity is sensitive to mortgage interest rates. Home deliveries fell to 4685 in 2025, and for 2026 the company faces pressure on demand and margins, though its balance sheet has strengthened. Buyers financed by mortgages remain essential to its sales.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) stock was 47.15 USD (−3.58% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, P/E 15.5 on diluted EPS of 3.05 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.14, 52-week range 34.24–65.84 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 444.5 m USD (+10.2% YoY), net income of 24.6 m USD (+24.6% YoY), diluted EPS 1.05 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 39.45 – 47.90
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 19.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 47.68 / 50.09
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.34 / -1.27
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.3% | −1.1% | +3.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.3% | −0.5% | −19.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.9% | +4.4% | −2.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +9.8% | +12.3% | −2.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.0% | +13.5% | −16.6 pp | −13.7% |
| 3 years | −56.8% | +76.4% | −133.3 pp | +16.0% |
| 5 years | −65.9% | +63.7% | −129.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 557.4 m | 351.4 m | 488.2 m | 403.5 m | 430.4 m | 319.7 m | 516.0 m | 444.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 429.9 m | 277.7 m | 378.6 m | 316.2 m | 352.4 m | 259.8 m | 414.4 m | 355.3 m |
| Operating income | 45.6 m | 169.0 k | 39.6 m | 21.5 m | 18.5 m | -582.0 k | — | — |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 828.0 k | 861.0 k | 1.0 m ≈ | 1.2 m ≈ | 1.3 m | 1.2 m | 1.3 m ≈ | 1.6 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax income | 67.1 m | 5.7 m | 42.0 m | 26.7 m | 24.0 m | 4.3 m | 36.6 m | 33.3 m |
| Income tax | 16.2 m | 1.7 m | 10.5 m | 7.0 m | 6.7 m | 2.2 m | 9.6 m | 8.8 m |
| Net income | 50.9 m | 4.0 m | 31.5 m | 19.7 m | 17.3 m | 2.2 m | 27.0 m | 24.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 2.15 ≈ | 0.17 | 1.36 | 0.85 | 0.75 ≈ | 0.09 | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| Operating cash flow | 57.0 m | -127.1 m | -86.4 m ≈ | -13.2 m ≈ | 86.8 m | -55.5 m | 114.6 m ≈ | 38.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 607.0 k | 831.0 k | 54.0 k ≈ | 39.0 k ≈ | 0 | 696.0 k | 816.0 k ≈ | 997.0 k ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 13.0 m | 3.1 m | 20.6 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 90 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 4.8, median 10.4, max 22.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +19.6% | +22.2% | +28.8% | +28.8% | −24.4% | +2.3% | −6.6% | −22.6% |
| Net income | 155.3 m | 178.6 m | 323.9 m | 429.6 m | 326.6 m | 199.2 m | 196.1 m | 72.6 m |
| Net income YoY | +37.1% | +15.0% | +81.3% | +32.6% | −24.0% | −39.0% | −1.6% | −63.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.24 | 7.02 | 12.76 | 17.25 | 13.76 | 8.42 | 8.30 | 3.12 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +31.9% | +12.5% | +81.8% | +35.2% | −20.2% | −38.8% | −1.4% | −62.4% |
| net % | 10.3% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -371.6 m | -58.4 m | -145.7 m | -140.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 61.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.79x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 3.5%
- ROA
- 1.9%
- FCF margin
- -8.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 603.1 m ≈ | 818.0 m ≈ | 646.6 m ≈ | 542.2 m ≈ | 533.3 m ≈ | 353.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | 364.7 m | 547.7 m | 390.1 m | 233.3 m | 212.1 m | 79.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 710.0 k | 1.2 m | 1.6 m | 2.4 m | 3.1 m | 4.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 365.4 m ≈ | 548.9 m ≈ | 391.7 m ≈ | 235.7 m ≈ | 215.3 m ≈ | 84.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 367.8 m | 542.8 m | 418.1 m | 261.8 m | 258.9 m | 98.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 44.0 m | 113.1 m | 91.5 m | 62.5 m | 62.8 m | 25.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 323.9 m | 429.6 m | 326.6 m | 199.2 m | 196.1 m | 72.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 12.76 | 17.25 | 13.76 | 8.42 | 8.30 | 3.12 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 25.4 m | 24.9 m | 23.7 m | 23.6 m | 23.6 m | 23.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 35.9 m | 50.5 m | 32.0 m | 49.0 m | 53.2 m | 61.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.6 m | 16.9 m | 33.0 m | 45.5 m | 57.0 m | 107.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 538.4 m | 805.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 687.1 m | 956.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 202.2 m | 21.7 m | -370.5 m | -57.0 m | -143.7 m | -140.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | — | — | 1.2 m | 1.4 m | 2.0 m | 924.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | — | -371.6 m ≈ | -58.4 m ≈ | -145.7 m ≈ | -140.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.6 m | -70.4 m | -6.0 m | -13.6 m | 15.6 m | 27.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -198.9 m | 63.3 m | 357.9 m | 87.6 m | 132.3 m | 120.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 48.1 m | 193.8 m | 95.1 m | 0 | 31.0 m | 23.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
54% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 39.42 – 46.94 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E39.42 – 46.94 (Mid 44.50)12 companies used · median multiple 14.6x · quartiles 12.9x – 15.4xCCS, DFH, DHI, ECG, GRBK, KBH, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, SDHC, TOL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.2% | 47 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 256.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -39.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 15.5x | 31 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 16.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.9% | 27 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial27/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation62/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LGI HOMES, INC. (LGIH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -22.6%; net margin 4.2%; ROE 3.4%.
The estimated value range is 39.42–46.94 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.50 USD, the price of 47.15 USD leaves a potential of -5.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -6.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 256.6%
- FCF yield: 16.6%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -9.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -39.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.9%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Operative Builders (SIC 1531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | 43.9 bn | 14.9 | 12.8% | 9.2% | −6.9% | −1% / +23% |
| PHMPultegroup, Inc. | 25.0 bn | 14.5 | 13.9% | 11.2% | −3.5% | +7% / +54% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 17.6 | 28.3% | 11.2% | −1.9% | −15% / +4% |
| TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | 14.3 bn | 12.5 | 14.4% | 11.1% | +1.1% | +11% / +81% |
| MTHMeritage Homes Corporation | 4.6 bn | 16.0 | 5.8% | — | unavailable | −3% / +1% |
| ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 14.6 | 39.5% | 6.0% | +31.5% | −21% / unavailable |
| MHOM/i Homes, Inc. | 3.4 bn | 12.8 | 8.7% | 6.6% | −1.9% | −2% / +27% |
| KBHKb Home | 3.2 bn | 14.6 | 5.9% | 4.4% | −10.0% | −19% / −0% |
| GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | 2.8 bn | 10.6 | 14.3% | 14.2% | −1.0% | −3% / +39% |
| CCSCentury Communities, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 15.2 | 4.2% | 2.9% | −6.4% | −13% / −21% |
| LGIHLgi Homes, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 15.5 | 3.4% | 4.2% | −22.6% | −3% / −57% |
| BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc | 893.2 m | — | -0.7% | -0.4% | +1.8% | +49% / +38% |
| HOVHovnanian Enterprises Inc | 75.5 m | 77.0 | 2.2% | 0.6% | −0.9% | −20% / +16% |
| LRELead Real Estate Co., Ltd | — | — | 12.2% | 3.5% | −3.5% | −15% / −84% |
| LGPSLogprostyle Inc. | — | — | 19.7% | 3.4% | +7.6% | −48% / unavailable |
| SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp. | — | 19.1 | 6.0% | 0.5% | −0.4% | −47% / unavailable |
| DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc. | — | 13.0 | 7.6% | 2.6% | −2.9% | −37% / −49% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LGIH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 25.24 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 44.85 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 67.86 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 20.04 Total return -57% · Per year -25% | 40.48 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 67.86 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 15.91 Total return -66% · Per year -20% | 36.53 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 67.86 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 10.12
- Net margin± 7.08
- Annual revenue growth± 6.40
- Annual dilution± 0.60
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
In brief
LGI Homes builds and sells new homes, mainly entry-level homes for first-time buyers, across several US states, and its activity is sensitive to mortgage interest rates. Home deliveries fell to 4685 in 2025, and for 2026 the company faces pressure on demand and margins, though its balance sheet has strengthened. Buyers financed by mortgages remain essential to its sales.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has an integrated model for land acquisition and development, giving it control over its lot portfolio and construction schedule.
- Presence in many states and regions reduces reliance on a single market, although the company acknowledges this diversification does not fully protect it from regional crises.
- The balance sheet improved in 2026, with debt reduced and a better debt-to-capital ratio than the prior year.
Weaknesses
- Gross margins have fallen noticeably from earlier years, and lower deliveries have reduced sales revenue.
- The company is smaller than some national competitors, which may limit access to financial resources and certain land.
- Reliance on buyers who use mortgage financing makes the business sensitive to credit conditions.
Opportunities
- A decline in mortgage rates could revive demand from first-time buyers, the company's core customer group.
- Bulk sales to institutional investors offer an additional route to absorbing inventory.
- Expanding or improving operating efficiency could help protect margins in difficult conditions.
Threats
- A prolonged economic slowdown or housing downturn could affect several regions at the same time.
- Changes to federal mortgage credit programs could reduce buyers' access to financing.
- Inflationary pressure on materials, labor and trade costs could compress margins further.
Risks
- Sensitivity to mortgage rateshigh
Rising mortgage interest rates can reduce buyers' ability to finance a home and can lead to cancelled contracts.
- Dependence on regional marketsmedium
Operations across many states can be affected by local economic conditions, and a regional downturn could have a significant impact.
- Margin pressurehigh
Construction costs, lower prices and wholesale sales can reduce gross margin, as seen over the past year.
- Land availabilitymedium
Acquiring suitable parcels at reasonable prices becomes harder as competition grows, and developing land can take several years.
- Regulatory and insurance riskslow
Changes in construction regulation and access to homeowners insurance in some areas could slow development and raise costs for buyers.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If mortgage rates stabilize or fall, demand from first-time buyers could recover quickly, and the company could benefit from its active community count.
- An improved balance sheet and lower debt could give the company more flexibility in periods of uncertainty.
- The raised 2026 gross margin guidance shows that pricing discipline and inventory management can deliver results.
What would break the thesis
- If mortgage rates stay high, the decline in deliveries could continue and reduce revenue further.
- Margins below earlier years could persist if cost pressures remain or intensify.
- Competition from larger national builders could limit the company's ability to secure land and maintain market share.
What to watch
- Delivery and active community guidance deliveryQ3 2026
- Gross margin trend against the revised guidanceQ3 2026
- Path of mortgage rates and consumer confidence2026
- Debt and liquidity levels in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
The business
LGI Homes, Inc. is a residential land developer and homebuilder headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, which designs, builds and sells new homes, primarily for the entry-level segment. It operates through product lines that include attached and detached homes for first-time buyers, active adult homes under the LGI Homes brand and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand. It also carries on complementary activities, such as bulk sales to institutional investors buying homes for rental and single-family rental projects 1.
The operating model rests on a flexible land acquisition strategy, buying finished lots or raw land that the company develops itself, which lets it keep a pipeline of land for new and replacement communities 1. Construction is managed by the company's own staff, while subcontractors provide materials and labor, and standard finishes and CompleteHome packages are used to streamline production 1.
In 2026 the company reports a moderate recovery in volumes in the second quarter, with homebuilding revenues rising and debt falling, but with margins lower than in prior years 23. It also began dual trading of its common stock on Nasdaq Texas under the symbol LGIH, which points to a wider market presence 2.
Segments
Central segment
The Central segment, which includes Texas and the Midwest, was the largest in 2025, with home sales revenues of 419,240 thousand USD and 1340 closings, but it fell roughly 25.7% from the prior year as absorption slowed 1.
Southeast segment
The Southeast segment, covering Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Maryland, generated 472,150 thousand USD in revenue in 2025 with 1431 closings, showing a milder decline than other regions 1. It has the largest number of active communities, making it an important pillar for future growth 1.
Florida segment
The Florida segment recorded the sharpest drop in closings in 2025, roughly 35.7%, with 651 homes delivered, reflecting this market's sensitivity to financing conditions and weaker absorption 1.
Market context
The US new-home market is directly influenced by the cost of mortgage credit, housing affordability and consumer confidence. The company notes that persistently high mortgage rates remain a pressure point for entry-level buyers, and in the second quarter of 2026 rates trended upward again under the influence of inflation and geopolitical uncertainty 2. Growth in wholesale volumes shows that institutional investors remain active, but this channel can lower the average sales price 1.
Weaker consumer confidence and slow absorption affect local market dynamics, but presence in several regions may soften the risk of a regional decline, although the company acknowledges that a prolonged recession could hit several areas at once 1.
Trends
- High mortgage ratesheadwind
Mortgage interest rates, which rose significantly from 2022, limit the ability of first-time buyers to obtain financing. If rates stay high, sales volume could remain under pressure 12.
- Support from federal credit programsmixed
FHA, USDA and VA programs, along with the roles of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, support access to mortgages for the company's buyers. Any scaling back of these programs could negatively affect sales 1.
- Construction cost pressureheadwind
Labor, materials and lumber could raise costs, and the company has said it could see inflationary pressures in future quarters. Sales prices have been adjusted in the past to absorb such increases 1.
- Raised margin guidancetailwind
The company raised its 2026 gross margin guidance after a stronger-than-expected first half, suggesting that pricing discipline and inventory management can offset cost pressures 3.
Competitive position
The residential construction market is highly competitive, with low barriers to entry. LGI Homes competes with large national and regional homebuilders, some with greater financial resources, as well as smaller local developers that may have lower administrative costs 1.
Larger competitors may benefit from wider geographic diversification and longer relationships with subcontractors, which can give them advantages in material prices and delivery times, potentially placing the company in a tougher position in certain markets 1.
- D.R. HortonDHI
National homebuilder with more geographically diversified operations, cited as better able to withstand regional downturns.
- PulteGroupPHM
Large national homebuilder, cited among competitors with greater financial and operational resources.
- NVRNVR
National homebuilder with extensive presence, competing for buyers, land and labor.
- Regional and local builders
Local homebuilders and land developers in each market, which may have lower administrative costs and strong relationships with local suppliers.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- LGI Homes (LGIH) Raises Guidance While Wall Street Bets Against ItYahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 14 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jun 2026Item 4.01 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Apr 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement13 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / LGI Homes, Inc. · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / LGI Homes, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / LGI Homes, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.