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olivLaw · US equity research

PulteGroup, Inc. PHM

Operative Builders · SIC 1531 · Vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)

135.97USD+7.16% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

PulteGroup is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, active in more than 45 markets. In 2026 demand weakened under pressure from high mortgage rates and gross margins declined, so the company's profitability is sensitive to financing conditions and costs.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock was 135.97 USD (+7.16% on the day), with market capitalisation 25.0 bn USD, P/E 14.5 on diluted EPS of 9.36 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.76%, beta 0.77, 52-week range 109.35–142.56 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 4.0 bn USD (−9.8% YoY), net income of 475.7 m USD (−18.8% YoY), diluted EPS 2.53 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
25.0 bn USD
shares as of 15 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.5
Diluted EPS TTM 9.36 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.89%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.76%
DPS 12m 1.04
Beta (2y)
0.77
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
109.35142.56

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
69.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
103.96 – 132.95
above the upper band · %B 1.10 · band width 24.5%
SMA 50 / 200
119.37 / 124.05
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.35 / 1.21
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+19.3%−1.1%+20.4 pp—
3 months+2.2%−0.5%+2.7 pp—
6 months+13.2%+4.4%+8.8 pp—
Year to date+16.0%+12.3%+3.6 pp—
1 year+13.6%+13.5%+0.1 pp−13.7%
3 years+63.1%+76.4%−13.3 pp+3.6%
5 years+169.6%+63.7%+105.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−23.3%
13 Feb 2026 → 14 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−38.3%
18 Oct 2024 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+21.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
4.0 bn USD
−9.8% YoY
Net income
475.7 m USD
−18.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.53
−14.5% YoY
net / operating
12.0% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue4.9 bn3.9 bn4.4 bn4.4 bn4.6 bn3.4 bn4.0 bn4.0 bn
Cost of revenue—2.8 bn3.1 bn3.2 bn—2.5 bn2.9 bn2.9 bn
SG&A195.6 m393.3 m390.5 m400.7 m389.5 m380.3 m383.0 m397.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation24.2 m24.7 m25.0 m25.8 m37.0 m24.5 m25.4 m26.7 m
Income tax269.5 m158.3 m198.7 m182.0 m153.6 m102.4 m150.4 m149.5 m
Net income913.2 m522.8 m608.5 m585.8 m501.6 m347.0 m472.0 m475.7 m
Diluted EPS4.43 ≈2.573.032.962.56 ≈1.792.482.53
Operating cash flow567.6 m134.2 m287.5 m ≈678.4 m ≈771.1 m159.8 m17.1 m ≈460.2 m ≈
Capex24.5 m29.6 m34.5 m ≈27.3 m ≈31.3 m25.4 m29.9 m ≈22.9 m ≈
Dividends paid41.1 m45.8 m44.3 m ≈43.6 m ≈43.0 m52.0 m49.8 m ≈49.0 m ≈
Share repurchases320.0 m300.0 m300.0 m ≈300.0 m ≈300.0 m308.2 m373.0 m ≈350.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 3.8, median 9.5, max 23.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue10.2 bn10.2 bn11.0 bn13.7 bn16.0 bn16.1 bn17.9 bn17.3 bn
Revenue YoY+18.8%+0.2%+8.1%+24.5%+16.5%+0.4%+11.7%−3.5%
Net income1.0 bn1.0 bn1.4 bn1.9 bn2.6 bn2.6 bn3.1 bn2.2 bn
Net income YoY+128.5%−0.5%+38.4%+38.3%+34.5%−0.6%+18.5%−28.0%
Diluted EPS3.553.665.187.4311.0111.7214.6911.12
Diluted EPS YoY+146.5%+3.1%+41.5%+43.4%+48.2%+6.4%+25.3%−24.3%
net %10.0%10.0%12.7%14.2%16.4%16.2%17.2%12.8%
Free cash flow1.4 bn1.0 bn1.7 bn931.2 m555.8 m2.1 bn1.6 bn1.7 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.0 bn USD
Financial debt
43.9 m USD
Net debt
-1.9 bn USD
Equity
13.0 bn USD
Total assets
18.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
17.7%
ROA
12.5%
FCF margin
10.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
16.1 bn
2024
17.9 bn
2025
17.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
80.8 m
2024
89.2 m
2025
112.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
469.0 k
2024
479.0 k
2025
605.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
846.9 m
2024
922.6 m
2025
692.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.6 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
11.72
2024
14.69
2025
11.12

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
221.2 m
2024
209.8 m
2025
199.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.68
2024
0.82
2025
0.92

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
221.5 m
2024
253.1 m
2025
238.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
68.9 m
2024
68.9 m
2025
40.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
56.3 m
2024
46.3 m
2025
26.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
16.1 bn
2024
17.4 bn
2025
18.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
73.5 m
2024
31.1 m
2025
43.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
5.7 bn
2024
5.2 bn
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
10.4 bn †
2024
12.1 bn †
2025
13.0 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Oct 2022verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.2 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
92.2 m
2024
118.5 m
2025
122.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.1 bn ≈
2024
1.6 bn ≈
2025
1.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-129.1 m
2024
-94.5 m
2025
-80.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.3 bn
2024
-1.8 bn
2025
-1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
142.5 m
2024
167.7 m
2025
176.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-28.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-5.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
9.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-24.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
16.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
11.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
8.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
9.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
14.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
109.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
72.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
25.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
13.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
19.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

135.97 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 25.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
25.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
11.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 15 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 1985derived 157

Score by group

58% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
121.06
USD per share
Mid
138.35
USD per share
High
146.11
USD per share
Price: 135.97 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 1.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 1.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 121.06 – 146.11 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E121.06 – 146.11 (Mid 138.35)
    12 companies used · median multiple 14.8x · quartiles 12.9x – 15.6x
    CCS, DFH, DHI, ECG, GRBK, KBH, LGIH, MHO, MTH, NVR, SDHC, TOL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate12.09 – 16.26 (Mid 13.87)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality11.2%93 (vs peers)11%
FCF conversion · Quality72.3%60 (on a fixed band)11%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.7%22 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth0.3%2 (on a fixed band)14%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation14.5x69 (vs peers)18%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation5.2%65 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns6.1%87 (on a fixed band)11%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns14.9%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth12/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality77/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns92/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

PULTEGROUP, INC. (PHM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.5%; net margin 11.2%; ROE 13.9%.

The estimated value range is 121.06–146.11 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 138.35 USD, the price of 135.97 USD leaves a potential of 1.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 1.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 11.2%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.1%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 14.9%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.7%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 0.3%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Operative Builders (SIC 1531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
14.5x
vertical median 14.9x
at median
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
1.6x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+96.1%)
P/B
1.9x
vertical median 1.0x
above median (+97.0%)
ROE
13.9%
vertical median 8.1%
above median (+70.6%)
Net margin
11.2%
vertical median 4.2%
above median (+170.8%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 7.1%
Revenue YoY
-3.5%
vertical median -1.9%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
0.8%
vertical median 1.9%
below median (−60.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DHID.R. Horton, Inc.43.9 bn14.912.8%9.2%−6.9%−1% / +23%
PHMPultegroup, Inc.25.0 bn14.513.9%11.2%−3.5%+14% / +63%
NVRNVR, Inc.16.9 bn17.628.3%11.2%−1.9%−15% / +4%
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.14.3 bn12.514.4%11.1%+1.1%+11% / +81%
MTHMeritage Homes Corporation4.6 bn16.05.8%—unavailable−3% / +1%
ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.3.7 bn14.639.5%6.0%+31.5%−21% / unavailable
MHOM/i Homes, Inc.3.4 bn12.88.7%6.6%−1.9%−2% / +27%
KBHKb Home3.2 bn14.65.9%4.4%−10.0%−19% / −0%
GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.2.8 bn10.614.3%14.2%−1.0%−3% / +39%
CCSCentury Communities, Inc.1.6 bn15.24.2%2.9%−6.4%−13% / −21%
LGIHLgi Homes, Inc.1.1 bn15.53.4%4.2%−22.6%−9% / −60%
BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc893.2 m—-0.7%-0.4%+1.8%+49% / +38%
HOVHovnanian Enterprises Inc75.5 m77.02.2%0.6%−0.9%−20% / +16%
LGPSLogprostyle Inc.——19.7%3.4%+7.6%−48% / unavailable
LRELead Real Estate Co., Ltd——12.2%3.5%−3.5%−15% / −84%
SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp.—19.16.0%0.5%−0.4%−47% / unavailable
DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc.—13.07.6%2.6%−2.9%−37% / −49%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PHM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
82.22
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
145.48
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
219.32
Total return 62% · Per year 62%
3 years
76.86
Total return -42% · Per year -16%
153.31
Total return 15% · Per year 5%
254.18
Total return 90% · Per year 24%
5 years
71.85
Total return -44% · Per year -11%
161.56
Total return 23% · Per year 4%
294.59
Total return 122% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 38.33
  • Net margin± 26.83
  • Annual revenue growth± 22.42
  • Annual dilution± 2.25

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

PulteGroup is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, active in more than 45 markets. In 2026 demand weakened under pressure from high mortgage rates and gross margins declined, so the company's profitability is sensitive to financing conditions and costs.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a diversified operating platform across many U.S. markets and brands covering several buyer groups 3.
  • A growing share of move-up and active-adult segments supports margins above the market average, according to management 3.
  • The financial structure remains solid, with high liquidity and a moderate leverage profile 3.

Weaknesses

  • The gross margin on home sales has declined in recent quarters due to sales incentives and higher land costs 2.
  • Selling, general and administrative expenses rose as a share of home sale revenues, which reduces operating margin 2.
  • Closings and the value of net new orders have fallen, pointing to weak demand in some segments 2.

Opportunities

  • If mortgage rates stabilize or fall, demand for new homes could gradually recover 2.
  • Share repurchases and a higher dividend can support shareholder returns 2.
  • Using artificial intelligence in development could improve productivity and operational efficiency 1.

Threats

  • Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions could raise construction costs and reduce home affordability 2.
  • Dependence on mortgage financing makes the company vulnerable to changes in monetary policy or in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 1.
  • A fall in land values could lead to inventory write-downs and significant impairments 1.

Risks

  • High mortgage rateshigh

    The cost of mortgage credit can discourage buyers and reduce sales volume or prices if rates stay high for a long period 1.

  • Declining marginshigh

    Sales incentives and land costs could keep eroding gross margins, especially if prices cannot be adjusted enough 2.

  • Land value declinemedium

    If land values fall significantly, the company could have to record inventory impairments and losses on abandoned options 1.

  • Shortages of labor and materialsmedium

    A shortage of skilled workers and disruptions in the supply chain can delay deliveries and increase costs 1.

  • Technology and regulatory risklow

    Using artificial intelligence carries risks to accuracy, security and compliance, and regulatory changes can affect construction and financing 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If mortgage rates fall and demand recovers, the company could benefit from a rebound in volume and margins, given its geographic and segment diversification 3.
  • A large share of move-up and active-adult segments could support margins above those of competitors more exposed to the entry-level market 3.
  • Ongoing share repurchases and a higher dividend can support long-term shareholder returns 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If mortgage rates stay high, demand could keep falling and closings could be reduced over several quarters 2.
  • Gross margin has declined in recent quarters, and management expects cost effects could continue in the coming period 2.
  • Rising selling and administrative costs and elevated inventories of completed homes could weigh on profitability and liquidity 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in mortgage rates and net new ordersQ4 2026
  • Gross margin level on home salesQ4 2026
  • Evolution of backlog and number of closings2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, builds homes through brands such as Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes and John Wieland Homes 3. Its activity has two parts: Homebuilding, the core business, and Financial Services, which covers mortgage banking, title and insurance agency operations 1. In fiscal 2025, Homebuilding revenues totaled 16.9 billion USD and net income was 2.22 billion USD 1.

As a capital allocation policy, PulteGroup continued share repurchases and raised its quarterly dividend from 0.22 to 0.26 USD per share 2. At September 30, 2026 the company reported a debt-to-capital ratio of 12% and substantial liquidity 3.

Market context

Demand for new homes remains under pressure from the high cost of mortgage credit and reduced affordability. Management states that mortgage rates rose sharply in the third quarter of 2026 and that economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have weighed on consumer confidence 2. Inventories of new and existing homes have increased in most of the company's geographies 2.

Over the long term, management believes demographics support housing demand 2. In the short term, land acquisition and development costs continue to pressure margins, and their effects appear with a delay due to the length of the construction cycle 1.

Trends

  • High mortgage ratesheadwind

    Higher mortgage rates reduce affordability and can push buyers out of the market. If rates fall, demand could recover, although management noted that rates stayed elevated even after Federal Reserve cuts 1.

  • Pressure from construction and land costsheadwind

    Inflation and shortages of labor and materials raise costs, and sales contracts often fix the price at signing, which limits passing costs on to customers 1.

  • Artificial intelligence and digitalizationmixed

    The company is in the early phases of using AI for productivity and data analysis. If it integrates the technology effectively, operations could improve, but there are risks around accuracy, security and regulation 1.

Competitive position

The U.S. new-home market is highly competitive. Builders compete on location, price, quality and reputation, and also face resales of existing homes, speculators and the rental market 1. Competition for suitable land is equally intense 1.

Competition can reduce deliveries or force acceptance of lower margins to keep sales volume 1. The company notes it must balance price with sales pace, adjusting incentives and production cadence 2.

  • D.R. HortonDHI

    American homebuilder competing with PulteGroup in regional markets and the entry-level segment.

  • LennarLEN

    American homebuilder active in many markets and a direct competitor for new-home buyers.

  • NVRNVR

    American homebuilder competing in the same regional markets and for entry-level buyers.

  • Toll BrothersTOL

    American homebuilder focused on luxury and move-up segments, competing for higher-income buyers.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / PulteGroup, Inc. · 04 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / PulteGroup, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / PulteGroup, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.