olivLaw · US equity research
Macy's, Inc. M
Retail-Department Stores · SIC 5311 · Vertical: General merchandise stores (SIC 53xx)
Macy's, Inc. is an omnichannel retailer with three nameplates, Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, selling apparel, cosmetics, home goods and other consumer products. The company is in the second year of its Bold New Chapter strategy, and its second-quarter 2026 results showed comparable sales growth across all nameplates, while net sales reached 21.764 billion USD in fiscal 2025.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Macy's, Inc. (M) stock was 25.70 USD (+7.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.7 bn USD, P/E 9.4 on diluted EPS of 2.74 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.91%, beta 1.35, 52-week range 16.92–26.21 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 5.1 bn USD (+1.2% YoY), net income of 169.0 m USD (+94.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.62 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.26 – 25.21
- above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 12.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.90 / 21.71
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.48 / 0.36
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.2% | −1.1% | +15.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.7% | −0.5% | +1.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +29.7% | +4.4% | +25.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.6% | +12.3% | +4.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +32.5% | +13.5% | +18.9 pp | +16.9% |
| 3 years | +98.5% | +76.4% | +22.0 pp | +33.7% |
| 5 years | −18.0% | +63.7% | −81.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.9 bn | 8.0 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.9 bn | 7.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.9 bn | 5.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn |
| SG&A | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Operating income | 64.0 m | 499.0 m | 94.0 m | 149.0 m | 42.0 m | 745.0 m | 112.0 m | 244.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 228.0 m | 224.0 m | 219.0 m | 218.0 m | 235.0 m | 222.0 m | 210.0 m | 206.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 35.0 m | 436.0 m | 68.0 m | 115.0 m | 5.0 m | 662.0 m | 93.0 m | 227.0 m |
| Income tax | 7.0 m | 94.0 m | 30.0 m | 28.0 m | -6.0 m | 155.0 m | 30.0 m | 58.0 m |
| Net income | 28.0 m | 342.0 m | 38.0 m | 87.0 m | 11.0 m | 507.0 m | 63.0 m | 169.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 1.21 ≈ | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 1.85 ≈ | 0.23 | 0.62 |
| Operating cash flow | -167.0 m ≈ | 1.3 bn | -64.0 m | 319.0 m ≈ | -8.0 m ≈ | 1.2 bn | 292.0 m | 294.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 128.0 m ≈ | 119.0 m | 100.0 m | 79.0 m ≈ | 93.0 m ≈ | 101.0 m | 88.0 m | 65.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 48.0 m ≈ | 48.0 m | 51.0 m | 49.0 m ≈ | 49.0 m ≈ | 48.0 m | 50.0 m | 51.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 1.0 m | 97.0 m | 52.0 m ≈ | 51.0 m ≈ | 50.0 m | 51.0 m | 53.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 3.4, median 7.2, max 109.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ⚠ 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.0 bn | 24.6 bn | 17.3 bn | 25.4 bn | 25.4 bn | 23.9 bn | 23.0 bn | 22.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +0.1% | −1.6% | −29.4% | — | +0.2% | −6.2% | −3.6% | −1.7% |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 564.0 m | -3.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 45.0 m | 582.0 m | 642.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −29.2% | −49.1% | −799.3% | — | −19.9% | −96.1% | +1,193.3% | +10.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.56 | 1.81 | -12.68 | 4.55 | 4.08 | 0.16 | 2.07 | 2.32 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −30.2% | −49.2% | −800.6% | — | −10.3% | −96.1% | +1,193.7% | +12.1% |
| net % | 4.4% | 2.3% | -22.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 706.0 m | 311.0 m | 2.4 bn | 727.0 m | 674.0 m | 760.0 m | 1.1 bn |
The series breaks before 2022: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 2.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 16.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.50x
- Current ratio
- 1.49x
- ROE
- 13.6%
- ROA
- 3.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17.3 bn | 25.4 bn | 25.4 bn | 23.9 bn | 23.0 bn | 22.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 12.3 bn | 15.0 bn | 15.3 bn | 14.2 bn | 13.7 bn | 13.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 5.1 bn ≈ | 10.4 bn ≈ | 10.1 bn ≈ | 9.6 bn ≈ | 9.3 bn ≈ | 9.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026derived |
| SG&A | 6.8 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -4.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 301.0 m | 909.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 959.0 m | 874.0 m | 857.0 m | 897.0 m | 881.0 m | 894.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -3.5 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 284.0 m | 256.0 m | 175.0 m | 170.0 m | 158.0 m | 139.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -4.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 43.0 m | 763.0 m | 849.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -846.0 m | 436.0 m | 331.0 m | -2.0 m | 181.0 m | 207.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -3.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 45.0 m | 582.0 m | 642.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -12.68 | 4.55 | 4.08 | 0.16 | 2.07 | 2.32 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 311.1 m | 314.0 m | 281.1 m | 278.2 m | 281.6 m | 276.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.73 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 862.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.2 bn | 6.8 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 5.9 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 828.0 m | 828.0 m | 828.0 m | 828.0 m | 828.0 m | 828.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 437.0 m | 435.0 m | 432.0 m | 430.0 m | 425.0 m | 420.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 17.7 bn | 17.6 bn | 16.9 bn | 16.2 bn | 16.4 bn | 16.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 452.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 649.0 m | 2.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 338.0 m | 354.0 m | 888.0 m | 631.0 m | 518.0 m | 373.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 311.0 m ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 727.0 m ≈ | 674.0 m ≈ | 760.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -325.0 m | -370.0 m | -1.2 bn | -913.0 m | -592.0 m | -639.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 699.0 m | -2.4 bn | -1.3 bn | -220.0 m | -413.0 m | -852.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 117.0 m | 90.0 m | 173.0 m | 181.0 m | 192.0 m | 197.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.0 m | 500.0 m | 601.0 m | 38.0 m | 1.0 m | 250.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 58 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation96
- Balance sheet53
- Quality42
- Growth0
- Returns91
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.59 – 120.20 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)69.89 – 120.20 (Mid 88.27)WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 1.5 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA58.27 – 96.93 (Mid 75.43)7 companies used · median multiple 10.3x · quartiles 8.1x – 13.1xBJ, DG, DLTR, KSS, OLLI, PSMT, TGT
- Peers: P/E49.08 – 63.58 (Mid 57.50)9 companies used · median multiple 21.0x · quartiles 17.9x – 23.2xBJ, BURL, DG, DLTR, FIVE, KSS, OLLI, PSMT, TGT
- Dividend discount (DDM)9.59 – 12.90 (Mid 11.00)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 58/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.9% | 10 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.3% | 38 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 188.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -17.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 20 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 66 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.4x | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.9x | 89 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 21.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.0% | 86 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 14.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet53/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality42/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns91/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation96/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Macy's, Inc. (M). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 22.6 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -1.7%; net margin 3.3%; ROE 16.0%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 53.67–80.25 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 66.47 USD, the price of 25.70 USD leaves a potential of 158.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 61.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 58/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 188.5%
- Interest coverage: 8.2x
- P/E (TTM): 9.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.9x
- FCF yield: 21.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 14.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 13.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -17.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
Versus the vertical median
General merchandise stores (SIC 53xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 13 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart Inc. | 1,024.8 bn | 46.6 | 23.4% | 3.0% | +4.7% | +17% / +149% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corp | 463.7 bn | 50.4 | 28.4% | 3.0% | +10.1% | +15% / +77% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | 74.1 bn | 16.9 | 26.4% | 4.1% | −1.7% | +80% / +22% |
| DGDollar General Corp | 31.2 bn | 18.4 | 19.7% | 3.9% | +5.2% | +29% / +8% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | 27.6 bn | 17.9 | 45.9% | 8.0% | +10.4% | +33% / +19% |
| BURLBurlington Stores, Inc. | 16.2 bn | 23.2 | 41.4% | 5.8% | +8.8% | +2% / +52% |
| BJBj’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | 14.0 bn | 24.3 | 27.7% | 2.6% | +4.7% | +24% / +72% |
| FIVEFive Below, Inc. | 13.9 bn | 22.6 | 28.3% | 11.7% | +22.9% | +53% / +34% |
| MMacy's, Inc. | 6.7 bn | 9.4 | 16.0% | 3.3% | −1.7% | +32% / +98% |
| OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | 5.6 bn | 21.0 | 14.9% | 9.8% | +16.6% | −24% / +28% |
| PSMTPriceSmart, Inc. | 5.1 bn | 30.6 | 12.3% | 2.8% | +11.5% | +34% / +145% |
| KSSKohl’s Corp | 2.9 bn | 10.9 | 6.7% | 1.7% | −4.3% | +3% / +8% |
| DDSDillard’s, Inc. | — | — | 33.8% | 10.3% | −0.4% | −5% / +83% |
| MNSOMINISO Group Holding Limited | — | — | 26.9% | 15.4% | +48.1% | −48% / −59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for M from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.61 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 25.94 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 39.23 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 11.90 Total return -48% · Per year -19% | 23.98 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 40.13 Total return 67% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 9.69 Total return -53% · Per year -14% | 22.17 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 41.06 Total return 78% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 5.99
- Net margin± 4.20
- Annual revenue growth± 3.74
- Annual dilution± 0.35
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Macy's, Inc. is an omnichannel retailer with three nameplates, Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, selling apparel, cosmetics, home goods and other consumer products. The company is in the second year of its Bold New Chapter strategy, and its second-quarter 2026 results showed comparable sales growth across all nameplates, while net sales reached 21.764 billion USD in fiscal 2025 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of three nameplates with distinct positioning, from mass to luxury, gives flexibility as demand shifts 1.
- Positive comparable sales growth across all nameplates in the second quarter of 2026 and a balance sheet that supports access to funding 23.
- A credit card program and a retail media network generate revenue beyond merchandise sales 1.
Weaknesses
- Net sales declined in fiscal 2025, partly because of store closures, which shows pressure on the physical sales base 1.
- Gross margin declined in fiscal 2025, and dependence on seasonality concentrates results in the fourth quarter 1.
- Many stores sit in mall locations where traffic is declining, which raises questions about the productivity of physical space 1.
Opportunities
- Expanding the Reimagine program and luxury brands could support long-term comparable sales growth 23.
- Using artificial intelligence in recommendations, planning and advertising could improve efficiency and the customer experience 12.
- Monetizing the real estate portfolio through mixed-use development could generate additional income if projects are completed 1.
Threats
- Inflation, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty could reduce customers' discretionary spending 13.
- Competition from e-commerce and off-price retailers could erode market share, especially if rivals adopt artificial intelligence faster 1.
- Regulatory changes affecting credit cards could reduce revenue from the Citibank program 1.
Risks
- Failure of the Bold New Chapter strategyhigh
If initiatives do not deliver the expected returns or implementation runs into difficulty, profitability and growth could be affected 1.
- Dependence on the holiday seasonhigh
A large share of revenue and cash flow is generated in the fourth quarter, so weakness in that period could have a disproportionate effect on annual results 1.
- Labor and benefit costsmedium
Minimum wage increases and rising health care costs could pressure margins and cash flow 1.
- Credit card revenuesmedium
Changes in payment behavior, the shift to buy-now-pay-later and industry regulation could reduce revenue from the card program 1.
- Tariffs and supply chain volatilitymedium
Tariffs could reduce margins, and refunds received may be temporary or reinvested, which makes results harder to anticipate 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If comparable sales growth at Reimagine stores and Bloomingdale's continues, the company could gradually exceed its updated guidance, supported by a solid balance sheet and well-targeted reinvestment 23.
- Diversification across three nameplates and revenue from cards and advertising can provide stability even when merchandise sales fluctuate 1.
- If operational efficiency in the supply chain keeps improving, the company could convert more sales into profit 12.
What would break the thesis
- If net sales keep declining after store closures, comparable sales growth may not offset the loss of sales base 13.
- The tariff refund gain is viewed as temporary; if reinvestments absorb the benefit, profitability could remain below expectations 3.
- If digital or off-price competitors gain market share, pressure on prices and store traffic could increase 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against the updated guidance for net sales and adjusted diluted EPS2026
- Trajectory of Reimagine 200 and Bloomingdale's comparable salesQ3 2026
- How tariff refunds are reinvested and their effect on gross margin2026
- Holiday season results and discretionary spending behaviorQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores, websites and mobile applications under three brands, Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, and serves an annual base of nearly 40 million active consumers 1. The company was organized in Delaware in 1985 and, with its predecessors, has operated department stores since 1830 1. Its multi-brand, multi-category and multi-channel model lets it adapt to shifting consumer demand, from value-conscious shoppers to luxury customers 1.
The multi-year Bold New Chapter strategy has three pillars: strengthening and reimagining the Macy's nameplate, accelerating and differentiating the Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury luxury brands, and simplifying and modernizing end-to-end operations 1. The company closed unproductive stores to focus resources on its go-forward business, and its China Grove fulfillment center, with automation and artificial intelligence, opened in fiscal 2025 1.
The business is seasonal, with a significant portion of annual sales and earnings typically occurring in the fourth quarter, which includes the holiday period 1. Beyond merchandise sales, the company earns revenue from its credit card program with Citibank and from Macy's Media Network, its retail media business 1.
Segments
Macy's
Macy's is the group's mass department store, targeting a broad base of middle-to-higher-income customers through full-line and smaller formats and the Macy's Backstage off-price concept 1. In fiscal 2025 Macy's comparable sales rose 0.4%, and the Reimagine 125 locations outperformed the rest of the fleet 1. In the second quarter of 2026 Macy's comparable sales rose 1.1%, and Reimagine 200 locations rose 1.9% 23.
Bloomingdale's
Bloomingdale's is the group's premium and luxury brand, serving an affluent, multigenerational clientele in curated stores with exceptional service 1. In fiscal 2025 it posted its highest owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace comparable sales growth in 14 quarters, and in the second quarter of 2026 its comparable sales rose 11.3%, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth 13.
Market context
The company operates in one of the most competitive US retail markets, competing with department stores, off-price retailers, specialty stores, mass merchants, marketplaces and direct-to-consumer brands 1. Total revenue in fiscal 2025 was 22.621 billion USD, and digital sales accounted for 35% of net sales 1.
Demand for discretionary goods is sensitive to inflation, tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, which can shift sales across categories 13. The company raised its 2026 guidance to net sales of 21.675 to 21.825 billion USD and adjusted diluted EPS of 2.15 to 2.35 USD, with results depending on tariffs and reinvestment 3.
Trends
- Bold New Chapter strategytailwind
The transformation program centers on the customer experience and operational modernization, with visible results in Macy's and Bloomingdale's comparable sales in 2026 12. If investments in Reimagine stores and expanded luxury continue to drive growth, the company could strengthen its position.
- Premium consumer demandtailwind
Bloomingdale's strong growth suggests sustained demand in the luxury segment, which could offset pressure on middle-income customers 23.
- Tariffs and sourcing costsmixed
Tariffs pressured gross margin in fiscal 2025, although the company received IEEPA refunds; the net effect depends on how they are reinvested and how costs evolve 13.
- Shift to digital and changing payment habitsheadwind
Moving sales from stores to digital channels and growing use of alternative payment methods could reduce credit card revenues or raise costs, which could weigh on results if the shift accelerates 1.
Competitive position
Macy's competes with department stores, off-price and outlet retailers, mass merchants, e-commerce platforms and online brands 1. Competitive factors include customer experience, brand relevance, price, service, speed of fulfillment and digital experience quality 1.
The company argues that differentiation through its nameplates, private label and loyalty programs allows it to compete, but warns that slower adoption of artificial intelligence could erode its competitive advantage 12.
- Nordstrom
Direct competitor in the premium department store segment, within the department store category the company's filings describe.
- Kohl's
Competitor in the mass department store category, with offers close to Macy's for middle-income customers.
- Off-price and outlet retailers
Group of competitors attracting price-conscious shoppers, a category the company names explicitly in describing competition.
- E-commerce platforms and marketplaces
Global digital competition affecting both pricing and online shopper behavior, according to the company.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Oracle, AeroVironment, American Eagle, Micron, Macy's & moreCNBC — Top News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Macy's, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Macy's and American Eagle Drop, JetBlue Dips | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Macy's Outlook Disappoints InvestorsBloomberg Markets · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Macy's, Meta, Apple, Novartis and moreCNBC — Top News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Macy's turnaround shows promise as earnings beat estimates, outlook improvesYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Macy's posts strong results, raises guidance as turnaround begins to take holdCNBC — Top News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Alibaba & Macy's Rise, Snap Shares Tumble | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 17 Aug 2026 · EN
- By billboards for over 100 years, holdout building by Macy's is backHacker News · 28 Jul 2026 · EN
- Macy's CEO on Earnings, Brand Strategy and OutlookBloomberg Markets · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 10 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 23 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report23 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report10 Sept 2026
- Current report10 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Jun 2026
- Current report03 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement31 Mar 2026
- Annual report27 Mar 2026
- Current report26 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report18 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / Macy's, Inc. · 27 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / Macy's, Inc. · 10 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Macy's, Inc. · 10 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.