olivLaw · US equity research
Nelnet, Inc. NNI
Personal Credit Institutions · SIC 6141 · Vertical: Personal Credit Institutions (SIC 6141)
Nelnet is an operating holding company active in consumer lending, loan servicing, payments and education technology. Its revenue still depends on the FFELP student loan portfolio, which is shrinking, while the company expands into consumer loans and services for clients outside the US. GAAP net income in the second quarter of 2026 fell compared with the prior year, partly because of a one-time gain in 2025, while the consumer loan portfolio grew considerably.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) stock was 127.58 USD (+4.11% on the day), with P/E 15.3 on diluted EPS of 8.36 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.39%, beta 0.58, 52-week range 121.88–144.23 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): net income of 66.7 m USD (−63.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.85 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 121.09 – 128.75
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 6.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 125.41 / 130.12
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.45 / -0.61
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.1% | −1.1% | +3.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.1% | −0.5% | −5.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.2% | +4.4% | −13.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.0% | +12.3% | −16.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.2% | +13.5% | −15.8 pp | +7.2% |
| 3 years | +44.4% | +76.4% | −32.0 pp | +142.3% |
| 5 years | +48.5% | +63.7% | −15.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | 72.3 m | 68.7 m | 57.5 m | 55.7 m | 60.0 m | 53.0 m | 52.0 m | 41.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 13.7 m | 26.5 m | 23.1 m | 7.6 m | 7.3 m | 22.4 m | 21.2 m | 10.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | -2.2 m | 78.4 m | 106.1 m | 237.4 m | 136.4 m | 76.5 m | 75.7 m | 65.4 m |
| Income tax | -282.0 k | 15.0 m | 25.0 m | 59.5 m | 35.8 m | 7.7 m | 20.1 m | 19.9 m |
| Net income | 2.4 m | 63.2 m | 82.6 m | 181.5 m | 106.7 m | 57.8 m | 71.1 m | 66.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | 1.73 ≈ | 2.26 | 4.97 | 2.94 | 1.60 ≈ | 1.97 | 1.85 |
| Operating cash flow | 137.0 m ≈ | 180.5 m | 91.2 m | 81.8 m ≈ | 112.4 m ≈ | 137.6 m | 73.1 m | 77.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 4.4 m ≈ | -17.4 m | 3.4 m | 3.7 m ≈ | 11.7 m ≈ | 7.5 m | 11.6 m | 6.3 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 10.1 m ≈ | 10.2 m | 10.2 m | 10.2 m ≈ | 10.8 m ≈ | 11.8 m | 11.8 m | 11.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 576.0 k ≈ | 403.0 k | 4.5 m | 21.4 m ≈ | 27.3 m ≈ | 16.3 m | 16.3 m | 24.4 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 59 percentile of its own 22-quarter history (min 5.4, median 12.4, max 36.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 227.9 m | 141.8 m | 352.4 m | 393.3 m | 406.9 m | 89.8 m | 184.0 m | 428.5 m |
| Net income YoY | +31.6% | −37.8% | +148.5% | +11.6% | +3.5% | −77.9% | +104.9% | +132.8% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 3.54 | 9.02 | 10.20 | 10.82 | 2.40 | 5.02 | 11.79 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +154.8% | +13.1% | +6.1% | −77.8% | +109.2% | +134.9% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 145.9 m | 206.4 m | 235.8 m | 421.4 m | 623.6 m | 358.0 m | 642.0 m | 396.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 296.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 7.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 7.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 14.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.18x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 12.5%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | 105.0 m | 108.7 m | 168.4 m | 219.8 m | 252.3 m | 226.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 198.5 m | 132.3 m | 176.2 m | 145.4 m | 132.5 m | 90.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 330.1 m | 176.2 m | 430.1 m | 845.1 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 450.5 m | 502.1 m | 501.8 m | 68.7 m | 228.6 m | 556.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 100.9 m | 115.8 m | 113.1 m | 19.4 m | 52.7 m | 128.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 352.4 m | 393.3 m | 406.9 m | 89.8 m | 184.0 m | 428.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 9.02 | 10.20 | 10.82 | 2.40 | 5.02 | 11.79 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 39.1 m | 38.6 m | 37.6 m | 37.4 m | 36.6 m | 36.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 121.2 m | 125.6 m | 118.1 m | 168.1 m | 194.5 m | 296.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 123.5 m | 119.4 m | 122.5 m | 127.0 m | 95.2 m | 75.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 142.1 m | 142.1 m | 176.9 m | 158.0 m | 158.0 m | 158.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 75.1 m | 52.0 m | 63.5 m | 44.8 m | 36.3 m | 29.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 22.6 bn | 21.7 bn | 19.4 bn | 16.7 bn | 13.8 bn | 14.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 19.3 bn | 17.6 bn | 14.6 bn | 11.8 bn | 8.3 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 20.0 bn | 18.7 bn | 16.2 bn | 13.5 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 349.1 m | 480.3 m | 683.1 m | 432.0 m | 662.9 m | 423.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 113.3 m | 59.0 m | 59.4 m | 74.1 m | 20.9 m | 26.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 235.8 m ≈ | 421.4 m ≈ | 623.6 m ≈ | 358.0 m ≈ | 642.0 m ≈ | 396.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 621.2 m | 1.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 356.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -1.4 bn | -2.8 bn | -2.7 bn | -3.2 bn | -737.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 31.8 m | 34.5 m | 36.6 m | 39.4 m | 40.8 m | 43.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 73.4 m | 58.1 m | 97.7 m | 28.0 m | 83.3 m | 69.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.57 – 119.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E75.74 – 119.75 (Mid 105.84)8 companies used · median multiple 12.7x · quartiles 9.1x – 14.3xAFRM, ATLC, BFH, CACC, ENVA, HAPN, RM, WRLD
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.57 – 8.84 (Mid 7.54)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 120.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 15.3x | 25 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 12.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NELNET, INC. (NNI). Latest full fiscal year: 2017; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 8.2%.
The estimated value range is 41.16–64.29 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 56.69 USD, the price of 127.58 USD leaves a potential of -55.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -125.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 120.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 12.7%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 15.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Personal Credit Institutions (SIC 6141) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CACCCredit Acceptance Corp | 5.1 bn | 16.3 | 22.7% | 14.4% | +7.2% | +8% / +9% |
| AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc. | 4.5 bn | 13.7 | 45.1% | 45.3% | +32.2% | +7% / +120% |
| ENVAEnova International, Inc. | 4.4 bn | 12.5 | 26.8% | 10.5% | +18.6% | +38% / +340% |
| BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 4.0 bn | 8.3 | 15.9% | — | −19.0% | +55% / +273% |
| HAPNHappen, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 9.3 | 13.8% | — | −58.5% | −8% / +165% |
| ATLCAtlanticus Holdings Corp | 1.5 bn | 12.8 | 24.3% | 5.8% | +50.1% | +69% / +223% |
| WRLDWorld Acceptance Corp | 751.2 m | 19.4 | 9.9% | 6.6% | +3.7% | +4% / +45% |
| RMRegional Management Corp. | 353.4 m | 8.0 | 12.6% | 7.0% | +9.7% | +4% / +79% |
| NNINelnet, Inc. | — | 15.3 | 8.2% | — | unavailable | −2% / +44% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NNI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nelnet is an operating holding company active in consumer lending, loan servicing, payments and education technology. Its revenue still depends on the FFELP student loan portfolio, which is shrinking, while the company expands into consumer loans and services for clients outside the US. GAAP net income in the second quarter of 2026 fell compared with the prior year, partly because of a one-time gain in 2025, while the consumer loan portfolio grew considerably 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has large-scale proprietary servicing platforms and long-standing relationships with government and institutional clients 1.
- Diversification across lending, servicing, payments and technology reduces dependence on any single income stream 1.
- Deposits and the loan book of Nelnet Bank provide an own funding source 3.
Weaknesses
- Interest income still depends on a FFELP portfolio that is shrinking and is no longer replenished by new originations 1.
- Dependence on a single government client for a large share of revenue exposes the company to federal decisions 1.
- Margins in some segments have narrowed because of investment and amortization of acquired assets 3.
Opportunities
Risks
- Credit risk on unsecured loanshigh
Private and consumer loans are unsecured, and a rise in defaults could increase provisions and affect financial results 1.
- Higher prepaymentsmedium
If the government expands cancellation or consolidation programs, prepayments could rise and reduce interest income 1.
- Dependence on the Department of Educationhigh
The Department accounts for a large share of revenue, and contract or performance changes could materially affect the company 1.
- Funding and refinancing riskmedium
Some warehouse facilities mature before the assets they fund, and funding costs could rise if alternatives are not found 1.
- Derivatives and interest rate riskmedium
Hedging instruments do not always match the portfolios precisely, and rate moves could produce unrealized losses 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If consumer loan growth continues and credit risk stays controlled, income could depend less on the shrinking FFELP portfolio 3.
- Servicing platforms and the education technology segment generate fee income that is steadier than interest income 13.
- The Canadian acquisition and service expansion could add new clients and diversify the revenue base geographically 1.
What would break the thesis
- The FFELP portfolio, the main source of interest income, is shrinking, and the company must compensate with riskier credit 1.
- GAAP net income fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the prior year, which included a one-time gain 23.
- Loan loss provisions rose with consumer loan purchases, which could reduce profitability if the risk materializes 3.
What to watch
- Provisions on acquired consumer loansQ3 2026
- AGM interest income as the FFELP portfolio runs offQ3 2026
- Department of Education contract and servicing volumes2027
- Integration of NDS Canada and NDS segment marginsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nelnet, Inc. is an operating holding company with primary businesses in consumer lending, loan servicing, payments and technology services, many of them focused on the education sector 1. The company was formed in Nebraska in 1978 as a servicer of federal student loans and became a leading originator, holder and servicer of them 1. Following the 2010 Reconciliation Act it no longer originates FFELP loans, and its existing FFELP portfolio, at $7.6 billion on December 31, 2025, is paying down 1. To reduce reliance on this income it has expanded into private education loans, consumer loans and Nelnet Bank, launched in 2020 13. On February 2, 2026 it acquired a Canadian student loan servicing business, NDS Canada 1.
Segments
Education Technology Services and Payments (NBS)
NBS provides technology and payment services for K-12 schools, universities and businesses through the FACTS, Nelnet Campus Commerce, Nelnet Payment Services and Nelnet International divisions 1. Segment revenue was $118.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, close to the prior year 3. Margins declined because of higher spending on new technology development 3.
Market context
The student loan servicing market is dominated by contracts with the Department of Education and private servicers, and service volume depends on federal decisions 1. The market for unsecured private education and consumer credit and education technology is more fragmented and offers an alternative to the shrinking FFELP business 13. The company notes that fewer consolidations into the federal direct program have reduced prepayment incentives, which could support interest income over a longer period 1.
Trends
- Expansion of consumer lendingtailwind
Consumer loan purchases have grown strongly and the portfolio reached $1.21 billion on June 30, 2026, which could offset the FFELP decline if credit risk stays controlled 3.
- Federal loan policy changesmixed
Federal decisions on debt cancellation or repayment plans could accelerate prepayments and reduce company income, although the outcome depends on how they are implemented 1.
- Investment in artificial intelligence and technologymixed
The company invests in artificial intelligence and product development, which may raise short-term costs but could support more efficient services 3.
Competitive position
The company competes on the scale of its servicing platforms and its low service costs, an advantage it supports through ongoing system investment 1. In education technology and payments it competes with specialized providers, and in lending with banks and other non-bank institutions 1.
- Education software and payment providers
Specialized providers of technology for schools and universities offering similar payment and tuition administration solutions 1.
- Private loan servicers
Companies that service loan portfolios for banks and other lenders, a market where Nelnet competes for new contracts 1.
- Banks and consumer lenders
Institutions offering private education and consumer loans that compete directly with Nelnet Bank 13.
- Government administration service providers
Companies providing administration services to governments and financial institutions, an area in which NDS Canada operates 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report30 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report16 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report18 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Nelnet, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Nelnet, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Nelnet, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.