olivLaw · US equity research
NRG NRG
Electric Services · SIC 4911 · Vertical: Electric Services (SIC 4911)
NRG Energy, Inc. provides electricity, natural gas and smart-home solutions to about 8 million customers in North America. In fiscal 2025 it sold 154 TWh of electricity and 1,857 MMDth of natural gas. After the LSP Portfolio acquisition in January 2026, its generation capacity rose to about 25 GW.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NRG (NRG) stock was 83.25 USD (−13.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 17.5 bn USD, P/E 21.6 on diluted EPS of 3.86 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.74%, beta 1.57, 52-week range 83.25–184.03 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 7.5 bn USD (+11.0% YoY), net income of 506.0 m USD, diluted EPS 2.31 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 29.9
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 86.85 – 110.41
- below the lower band · %B -0.15 · band width 23.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 103.27 / 134.39
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -3.50 / -2.85
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −14.0% | −1.1% | −12.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −31.0% | −0.5% | −30.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −44.7% | +4.4% | −49.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −47.7% | +12.3% | −60.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −50.4% | +13.5% | −64.0 pp | +2.4% |
| 3 years | +85.0% | +76.4% | +8.6 pp | +49.5% |
| 5 years | +129.5% | +63.7% | +65.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.2 bn | 6.8 bn | 8.6 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.8 bn | 10.3 bn | 7.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 7.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 6.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 8.9 bn | 5.5 bn |
| SG&A | 645.0 m | 606.0 m | 549.0 m | 724.0 m | 612.0 m | 717.0 m | 593.0 m | 562.0 m |
| Operating income | -812.0 m | 954.0 m | 1.1 bn | 0 | 414.0 m | 297.0 m | 328.0 m | 976.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 352.0 m | 358.0 m | 326.0 m | 344.0 m | 360.0 m | 376.0 m | 432.0 m | 494.0 m |
| Interest expense | 213.0 m | 123.0 m | 163.0 m | 148.0 m | 187.0 m | 243.0 m | 285.0 m | 310.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -1.0 bn | 715.0 m | 985.0 m | -153.0 m | 238.0 m | 64.0 m | 83.0 m | 663.0 m |
| Income tax | -247.0 m | 72.0 m | 235.0 m | -49.0 m | 86.0 m | -2.0 m | -42.0 m | 157.0 m |
| Net income | -767.0 m | 643.0 m | 750.0 m | -104.0 m | 152.0 m | 66.0 m | 125.0 m | 506.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -3.79 | 3.08 ≈ | 3.61 | -0.62 | 0.69 | 0.34 ≈ | 0.52 | 2.31 |
| Operating cash flow | 31.0 m ≈ | 952.0 m | 855.0 m | 451.0 m ≈ | 484.0 m ≈ | 123.0 m | -169.0 m | 1.1 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 114.0 m ≈ | 186.0 m | 217.0 m | 378.0 m ≈ | 254.0 m ≈ | 298.0 m | 317.0 m | 338.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 118.0 m ≈ | 83.0 m | 121.0 m | 86.0 m ≈ | 119.0 m ≈ | 85.0 m | 135.0 m | 100.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 226.0 m ≈ | 619.0 m | 314.0 m | 289.0 m ≈ | 355.0 m ≈ | 353.0 m | 481.0 m | 450.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 1.7, median 10.2, max 156.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.5 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.1 bn | 27.0 bn | 31.5 bn | 28.8 bn | 28.1 bn | 30.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.5% | +3.6% | −7.4% | +196.8% | +16.9% | −8.6% | −2.4% | +9.2% |
| Net income | 268.0 m | 4.4 bn | 510.0 m | 2.2 bn | 1.2 bn | -202.0 m | 1.1 bn | 864.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +1,556.0% | −88.5% | +328.8% | −44.2% | −116.5% | unavailable | −23.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.87 | 16.81 | 2.07 | 8.93 | 5.17 | -1.12 | 4.99 | 4.01 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +1,832.2% | −87.7% | +331.4% | −42.1% | −121.7% | unavailable | −19.6% |
| net % | 2.8% | 45.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | -0.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Free cash flow | 989.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 224.0 m | -7.0 m | -819.0 m | 1.8 bn | 766.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 16.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 11.7 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 29.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 9.78x
- Current ratio
- 1.64x
- ROE
- 41.5%
- ROA
- 3.3%
- FCF margin
- 2.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.1 bn | 27.0 bn | 31.5 bn | 28.8 bn | 28.1 bn | 30.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.5 bn | 20.5 bn | 27.4 bn | 26.5 bn | 22.1 bn | 24.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.6 bn ≈ | 6.5 bn ≈ | 4.1 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 6.0 bn ≈ | 6.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 8.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Mar 2021verified |
| SG&A | 810.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 384.0 m | 2.4 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 435.0 m | 785.0 m | 720.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.5 bn ≈ | 4.1 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 401.0 m | 485.0 m | 417.0 m | 667.0 m | 651.0 m | 741.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 761.0 m | 2.9 bn | 1.7 bn | -213.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 251.0 m | 672.0 m | 442.0 m | -11.0 m | 323.0 m | 270.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 510.0 m | 2.2 bn | 1.2 bn | -202.0 m | 1.1 bn | 864.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.07 | 8.93 | 5.17 | -1.12 | 4.99 | 4.01 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 246.0 m | 245.0 m | 236.0 m | 228.0 m | 212.0 m | 199.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.51 | 1.63 | 1.76 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.9 bn | 250.0 m | 430.0 m | 541.0 m | 966.0 m | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 904.0 m | 3.2 bn | 4.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 327.0 m | 498.0 m | 751.0 m | 607.0 m | 478.0 m | 461.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.0 bn | 10.8 bn | 16.2 bn | 9.7 bn | 9.0 bn | 13.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 579.0 m | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 668.0 m | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 14.9 bn | 23.2 bn | 29.1 bn | 26.0 bn | 24.0 bn | 29.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 649.0 m | 2.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.0 m | 4.0 m | 63.0 m | 620.0 m | 996.0 m | 31.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 8.7 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.0 bn | 10.1 bn | 9.8 bn | 16.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 7.9 bn | 13.0 bn | 9.5 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 13.2 bn | 19.6 bn | 25.3 bn | 23.1 bn | 21.5 bn | 27.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.8 bn | 493.0 m | 360.0 m | -221.0 m | 2.3 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 230.0 m | 269.0 m | 367.0 m | 598.0 m | 472.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.6 bn ≈ | 224.0 m ≈ | -7.0 m ≈ | -819.0 m ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 766.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -494.0 m | -3.0 bn | -332.0 m | -910.0 m | -24.0 m | -1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.2 bn | -272.0 m | 1.0 bn | -400.0 m | -1.8 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 295.0 m | 319.0 m | 332.0 m | 381.0 m | 405.0 m | 411.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 229.0 m | 48.0 m | 600.0 m | 1.2 bn | 935.0 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 33 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 17.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation52
- Returns59
- Quality29
- Balance sheet15
- Growth5
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.76 – 116.58 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)8.76 – 75.43 (Mid 8.76)WACC 6.7% · starting FCFF 1.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 82%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 19.8%
- Dividend discount (DDM)23.13 – 31.10 (Mid 26.53)
- Peers: EV/EBITDA42.01 – 116.58 (Mid 74.61)9 companies used · median multiple 11.0x · quartiles 9.1x – 13.4xAEP, CEG, CNP, D, EIX, ES, ETR, SO, VST
- Peers: P/E77.44 – 96.02 (Mid 88.19)10 companies used · median multiple 22.8x · quartiles 20.1x – 24.9xAEP, CEG, CNP, D, ES, ETR, FE, PPL, SO, VST
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 33/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.7% | 50 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.6% | 8 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.9% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 6.7x | 10 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.6x | 55 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 11.5x | 50 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 3.7% | 64 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 80.7% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet15/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth5/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality29/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Returns59/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation52/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
NRG Energy, Inc (NRG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 30.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.2%; net margin 2.6%; ROE 23.8%; net debt/EBITDA 6.7x.
The estimated value range is 32.57–85.72 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 50.57 USD, the price of 83.25 USD leaves a potential of -39.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -64.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 33/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 2.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -8.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 6.7x
- Interest coverage: 2.0x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Electric Services (SIC 4911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.5 bn and 158.7 bn (within 8× of the company's); 40 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOSouthern Co | 105.0 bn | 23.9 | 11.3% | 14.5% | +10.6% | +2% / +31% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | 87.1 bn | 24.0 | 15.3% | 11.1% | +8.3% | −33% / +103% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | 70.3 bn | 19.0 | 12.8% | 16.9% | +10.9% | +4% / +62% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc | 61.3 bn | 20.6 | 10.5% | 16.9% | +14.2% | +11% / +54% |
| ETREntergy Corp | 51.2 bn | 28.4 | 11.1% | 13.6% | +9.0% | +15% / +121% |
| VSTVistra Operations Company LLC | 40.4 bn | 19.9 | 43.1% | 11.6% | +3.0% | −33% / +240% |
| FEFirstenergy Corp | 27.3 bn | 25.7 | 8.4% | 6.9% | +12.0% | −1% / +28% |
| PPLPPL Corp | 26.9 bn | 21.8 | 8.3% | 13.1% | +6.9% | −3% / +37% |
| CNPCenterpoint Energy Inc | 26.8 bn | 25.2 | 9.6% | 11.4% | +8.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ESEversource Energy | 26.5 bn | 18.2 | 9.1% | 10.4% | +13.8% | +5% / +19% |
| EIXEdison International | 23.7 bn | 6.5 | 20.8% | 19.6% | +9.8% | +4% / −8% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc | 17.5 bn | 21.6 | 23.8% | 2.6% | +9.2% | −50% / +85% |
| TLNTalen Energy Corporation | 14.2 bn | — | -16.7% | -6.4% | +22.0% | −17% / +470% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NRG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 48.68 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 86.29 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 130.31 Total return 61% · Per year 61% |
| 3 years | 42.27 Total return -41% · Per year -16% | 84.77 Total return 13% · Per year 4% | 141.25 Total return 84% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 36.70 Total return -43% · Per year -11% | 83.28 Total return 19% · Per year 4% | 153.12 Total return 109% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 21.19
- Net margin± 14.84
- Annual revenue growth± 12.84
- Annual dilution± 1.25
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NRG Energy, Inc. provides electricity, natural gas and smart-home solutions to about 8 million customers in North America. In fiscal 2025 it sold 154 TWh of electricity and 1,857 MMDth of natural gas 1. After the LSP Portfolio acquisition in January 2026, its generation capacity rose to about 25 GW 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- Retail scale and a large customer base, especially in Texas, give an advantage in integrating sales with owned generation.
- An expanded generation fleet, reinforced by the LSP acquisition, provides capacity and long-term supply contracts.
- Vivint Smart Home brings recurring revenue and long-lived customers, strengthening consumer relationships.
Weaknesses
- Integrating acquired assets adds operational complexity and strains management and systems.
- Debt and financing costs rose after the acquisition, which reduced adjusted profit in the second quarter of 2026.
- Results depend on weather and volatile fuel prices, which can affect margins in the short term.
Opportunities
- Rising data center demand could support long-term generation contracts, including the BYOP model.
- Texas Energy Fund projects, if completed on schedule, could add new capacity by 2028.
- Demand response and virtual power plant programs could raise customer value and grid efficiency.
Threats
- Regulatory pressure on prices and affordability could limit retail rates and contract terms.
- Volatile gas and power prices could compress margins, especially when customer rates adjust with a lag.
- Plant operating risks such as outages and failures could create costs that insurance does not fully cover.
Risks
- LSP integrationhigh
Integrating the acquired assets could disrupt operations and reduce the expected benefits of the transaction 1.
- Price volatilityhigh
Power and gas prices can fluctuate sharply, and the company may not always pass these changes on to customers 1.
- Uncertain demandmedium
The expected rise in demand from data centers may not materialize at the forecast pace 1.
- Plant failuresmedium
Outages and failures can raise costs and reduce revenue, and insurance may be insufficient 1.
- Retail regulationmedium
Maryland price caps and contract limits could weigh on retail revenue while the litigation continues 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the LSP assets are integrated well, the company could gain greater scale, steadier revenue and a reaffirmed 2026 outlook 3.
- The BYOP model with data center customers could turn demand growth into investment backed by those customers 3.
- A large smart-home customer base could generate recurring revenue and support long-term retention 3.
What would break the thesis
- If integrating the acquired assets proves difficult, costs could rise and expected benefits could be delayed 1.
- Higher debt after the acquisition and lower liquidity could limit financial flexibility in difficult markets 2.
- Mild winters and higher supply costs could reduce earnings in retail-exposed segments 3.
What to watch
- LSP integration and Adjusted EBITDA against guidanceQ3 2026
- Commissioning of the remaining Texas Energy Fund projects2028
- Trend in liquidity and debt after the LSP acquisitionQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Segments
Vivint Smart Home
Vivint Smart Home reported Adjusted EBITDA of 301 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, supported by new customer additions and a higher recurring service margin per customer 3.
Market context
Natural gas prices play an important role in setting electricity prices in many NRG regions; the average Henry Hub price was 3.43 USD per MMBtu in 2025, up 51% from 2024 1. Electricity demand could rise significantly from data centers and AI, although forecasts are not assured 1.
Bill affordability and retail market rules are changing, and some states, such as Maryland, have restricted competitive retail sales to residential customers 2.
Trends
- Data center demandtailwind
Rising energy demand from data centers could support new generation plans, such as the BYOP project with a hyperscaler in Texas that is still subject to final documentation 3.
- Volatile gas pricesheadwind
Swings in gas and power prices could weigh on margins if customer rates adjust slowly 1.
- Regulation and affordabilitymixed
Maryland legislation and pressure on bill affordability could limit retail pricing and contracts, although parts of the law are under court review 2.
- LSP integrationmixed
Integrating the LSP assets could bring scale and higher revenue, but it also carries operational and integration risk 12.
Competitive position
NRG operates in competitive energy markets where rivals include retail suppliers and wholesale generators, and results depend on pricing pressure and its share in Texas 1.
In smart home, Vivint Smart Home competes with platforms that combine home security and automation; its advantage lies in a large customer base and bundled energy services 1.
- Texas retail electricity providers
Competitors in retail electricity sales to residential and commercial customers in Texas.
- Generation operators in PJM and ERCOT
Competitors in wholesale markets where NRG sells energy and capacity, with prices shaped by supply and demand.
- Home security and smart-home platforms
Competitors to Vivint Smart Home in home security and automation.
- Regional natural gas suppliers
Competitors in natural gas sales to customers in the East and West where NRG has a position.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jul 2026Other events
- Current report21 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report (amendment)30 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Apr 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NRG · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NRG · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NRG · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.