olivLaw · US equity research
Smithfield Foods, Inc. SFD
Meat Packing Plants · SIC 2011 · Vertical: Food products (SIC 201x)
Smithfield Foods is an American producer of packaged meats and fresh pork, majority owned by Hong Kong-based WH Group, with sales above 7 billion USD in the first half of fiscal 2026. The company reported record first-half operating profit, while it revised its 2026 outlook because of macroeconomic pressures.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) stock was 19.72 USD (+7.41% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.8 bn USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 2.28 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.02%, beta 0.32, 52-week range 18.22–29.59 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.4 bn USD (−8.3% YoY), net income of 89.0 m USD (−64.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.23 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 17.90 – 19.19
- above the upper band · %B 1.41 · band width 7.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 19.54 / 23.96
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.20 / -0.38
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.3% | −1.1% | +6.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −21.8% | −0.5% | −21.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −24.6% | +4.4% | −29.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −11.7% | +12.3% | −24.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −10.4% | +13.5% | −24.0 pp | −1.9% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +13.5% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 3.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Gross profit | 533.0 m | 510.0 m | 499.0 m | 479.0 m | 602.0 m | 511.0 m | 478.0 m | 313.0 m |
| SG&A | 246.0 m | 197.0 m | 268.0 m | 178.0 m | 206.0 m | 180.0 m | 191.0 m | 193.0 m |
| Operating income | 335.0 m | 321.0 m | 260.0 m | 310.0 m | 400.0 m | 333.0 m | 290.0 m | 127.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 86.0 m | 83.0 m | 82.0 m | 82.0 m | 84.0 m | 83.0 m | 85.0 m | 86.0 m |
| Interest expense | 14.0 m | 11.0 m | 11.0 m | 11.0 m | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | 6.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 316.0 m | 304.0 m | 254.0 m | 318.0 m | 394.0 m | 323.0 m | 299.0 m | 120.0 m |
| Income tax | 106.0 m | 72.0 m | 62.0 m | 71.0 m | 78.0 m | 72.0 m | 64.0 m | 30.0 m |
| Net income | 204.0 m | 224.0 m | 188.0 m | 248.0 m | 327.0 m | 246.0 m | 238.0 m | 89.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.54 ≈ | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.63 | 0.83 ≈ | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.23 |
| Operating cash flow | — | -166.0 m | 274.0 m ≈ | 13.0 m ≈ | — | -65.0 m | 269.0 m ≈ | 161.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 82.0 m | 79.0 m | 78.0 m | 88.0 m | 95.0 m | 88.0 m | 77.0 m ≈ | 116.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 18.0 m | 0 | 197.0 m ≈ | 100.0 m ≈ | 99.0 m | — | — | 138.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 29 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 7.6, median 9.4, max 10.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.1 bn | 13.9 bn | 15.0 bn | 14.4 bn | 16.2 bn | 14.6 bn | 14.1 bn | 15.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.3% | +6.1% | +8.2% | −3.9% | unavailable | −9.6% | −3.4% | +9.8% |
| Net income | 361.3 m | 120.7 m | 556.1 m | 452.3 m | 870.0 m | 17.0 m | 953.0 m | 987.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −30.7% | −66.6% | +360.7% | −18.7% | unavailable | −98.0% | +5,505.9% | +3.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.21 | 1.26 | unavailable | unavailable | 2.29 | 0.05 | 2.51 | 2.51 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −29.2% | −43.0% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −97.8% | +4,920.0% | 0.0% |
| net % | 2.8% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 0.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% |
| Free cash flow | 279.4 m | -105.3 m | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 2.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 450.0 m USD
- Equity
- 6.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 12.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.29x
- Current ratio
- 2.97x
- ROE
- 15.6%
- ROA
- 8.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2014 | 2015 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.0 bn | 14.4 bn | 16.2 bn | 14.6 bn | 14.1 bn | 15.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 14.7 bn | 13.8 bn | 12.2 bn | 13.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 889.0 m | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | — | — | 157.0 m | 175.0 m | 144.0 m | 214.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | — | 807.0 m | 1.1 bn | 840.0 m | 849.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 931.6 m | 793.8 m | 1.1 bn | -56.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | 440.0 m | 427.0 m | 339.0 m | 332.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | — | 1.6 bn ≈ | 371.0 m ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 87.0 m | 76.0 m | 66.0 m | 41.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | 1.0 bn | -129.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | — | 231.0 m | -41.0 m | 271.0 m | 283.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 556.1 m | 452.3 m | 870.0 m | 17.0 m | 953.0 m | 987.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | 2.29 | 0.05 | 2.51 | 2.51 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | — | 380.1 m | 380.1 m | 380.1 m | 392.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | — | — | 1.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2014 | 2015 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 433.5 m | 704.9 m | 547.0 m | 687.0 m | 943.0 m | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 864.0 m | 760.0 m | — | 577.0 m | 558.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | — | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | — | 4.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | — | — | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | — | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 10.1 bn | 9.9 bn | — | 13.3 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 675.1 m | 686.1 m | — | 789.0 m | 777.0 m | 856.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 46.9 m | 29.1 m | — | 5.0 m | 0 | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.7 bn | 2.2 bn | — | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | — | 2.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2014 | 2015 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | 301.4 m | — | 338.0 m | 353.0 m | 350.0 m | 341.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 496.0 m | 323.0 m | 288.0 m | 396.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 78 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation88
- Balance sheet100
- Quality100
- Growth10
- Returns89
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.14 – 82.63 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E49.04 – 82.63 (Mid 56.72)5 companies used · median multiple 24.9x · quartiles 21.5x – 36.2xHRL, JBS, PPC, TSN, WYHG
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.14 – 17.67 (Mid 15.07)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 78/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.1% | 21 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 38.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.6x | 83 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 4.8x | 92 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.2% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth10/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial89/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SMITHFIELD FOODS, INC. (SFD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 15.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.8%; net margin 5.9%; ROE 13.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.
The estimated value range is 31.09–50.15 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 35.90 USD, the price of 19.72 USD leaves a potential of 82.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 45.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 78/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 14.9%
- Net margin: 5.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
- Interest coverage: 38.3x
- Current ratio: 2.4x
- P/E (TTM): 8.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 3.1%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Food products (SIC 201x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc. | 7.8 bn | 8.6 | 13.4% | 5.9% | +9.8% | −10% / unavailable |
| PPCPilgrim’s Pride Corporation | 6.9 bn | 21.5 | 8.6% | 1.7% | +3.5% | −24% / +13% |
| MAMAMama’s Creations, Inc. | 629.4 m | 78.1 | 7.5% | 3.5% | +39.2% | +18% / +230% |
| WYHGWing Yip Food Holdings Group Limited | 200.3 m | 24.9 | 4.8% | 5.9% | −6.5% | +8% / unavailable |
| BRIDBridgford Foods Corporation | 49.3 m | — | -12.3% | -6.1% | +3.3% | −32% / −49% |
| JBSJbs N.V. | — | 6.9 | 25.6% | 2.3% | +11.7% | −12% / unavailable |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | — | 37.0 | 3.2% | 1.0% | +2.1% | +3% / +28% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | — | 36.2 | 4.3% | 2.8% | +1.6% | −2% / −26% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SFD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 10.99 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 19.49 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 29.44 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 9.44 Total return -40% · Per year -15% | 18.95 Total return 14% · Per year 4% | 31.60 Total return 83% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 8.11 Total return -40% · Per year -10% | 18.43 Total return 22% · Per year 4% | 33.92 Total return 111% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 4.74
- Net margin± 3.32
- Annual revenue growth± 2.89
- Annual dilution± 0.28
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).
In brief
Smithfield Foods is an American producer of packaged meats and fresh pork, majority owned by Hong Kong-based WH Group, with sales above 7 billion USD in the first half of fiscal 2026 23. The company reported record first-half operating profit, while it revised its 2026 outlook because of macroeconomic pressures 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of recognized brands, a leading position in packaged meats and a balance sheet that provides financial flexibility.
- A vertically integrated model that gives control over raw material supply.
- Long-standing relationships with large retailers and a broad customer base.
Weaknesses
- Results are cyclical and sensitive to prices of hogs, feed and energy.
- Reliance on one major customer creates a concentration risk for sales.
- The Fresh Pork segment has had thin margins in recent quarters.
Opportunities
- Growth in value-added and premium products could improve margins.
- The Nathan's Famous acquisition could extend the brand portfolio if completed.
- Global demand for pork could open new export channels.
Threats
- Tariffs and tensions with China could reduce access to exports.
- Higher costs for feed, energy and transport could pressure margins.
- Animal disease or food safety events could affect production and demand.
Risks
- Cyclical raw material priceshigh
Results are sensitive to hog, grain and fuel prices, which can fluctuate significantly 1.
- Animal disease riskhigh
Outbreaks among livestock could reduce production and supply across the chain 1.
- Tariffs and trade relationsmedium
Changes in trade policy, especially with China, could affect exports 12.
- Dependence on a major customermedium
Walmart and other large retailers hold a significant share of sales, and losing them would have a material effect 1.
- Acquisition and investment riskslow
The Nathan's deal and the Sioux Falls project depend on approvals and execution, which could affect the balance sheet if delayed 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company reported record first-half 2026 operating profit, showing that its integrated model and brands can support results even in a difficult environment 3.
- The Packaged Meats segment, which generates most of the profit, holds a strong position and could benefit from protein consumption trends 1.
- Low leverage and high liquidity provide flexibility for investments and acquisitions 3.
What would break the thesis
- The 2026 outlook was lowered and total sales are expected to be roughly flat, indicating macroeconomic pressure 3.
- Packaged Meats profit fell in the first half of 2026 compared with the prior year, while Fresh Pork and Hog Production have fragile margins 3.
- Tariff risks and raw material costs could weigh on results if conditions worsen 1.
What to watch
- Completion of the Nathan's Famous acquisition and its effect on the balance sheetfirst half 2026
- Board decision on the Sioux Falls project and regulatory approvals2027
- Evolution of the adjusted 2026 outlook given costs and demandQ3 2026
- Development of U.S.-China trade relations and export tariffsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).
The business
Smithfield, headquartered in Smithfield, Virginia, produces a wide variety of packaged meats and fresh pork products, mainly in the United States, under brands such as Smithfield, Eckrich and Nathan's Famous 1. Operations run through three reportable segments, Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork and Hog Production, plus Mexico and Bioscience, reported together as 'Other' 1. The company is a majority-owned subsidiary of WH Group Limited and has been listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SFD since its initial public offering in January 2025 1.
Strategy emphasizes growing Packaged Meats through mix improvement, volume growth and innovation, and optimizing hog production by buying more from independent suppliers 1. The company agreed to acquire Nathan's Famous for 102.00 USD per share in cash and plans to replace its Sioux Falls, South Dakota plant with a preliminary investment of up to 1.3 billion USD 1. Both projects are pending and are excluded from the current outlook 3.
Customers are mostly U.S. retailers and foodservice operators, and Walmart accounted for about 15% of consolidated sales in fiscal 2025 1. Exports, particularly of pork products to China, Mexico and Japan, are a relevant part of the Fresh Pork segment 1.
Segments
Packaged Meats
This is the main growth segment, selling bacon, sausage, hot dogs and deli meats to retailers and foodservice. It generated 56% of sales and 85% of operating profit in fiscal 2025 1. Operating profit in the first half of 2026 was 540 million USD, down from 567 million USD a year earlier 3.
Fresh Pork
This segment processes live hogs into primal, sub-primal and offal products for domestic retail, foodservice, industrial and export channels. It faced thinner margins in the second quarter of 2026, with operating profit of 14 million USD 3. About one-third of its products are transferred to Packaged Meats 1.
Market context
The company operates in the large packaged and fresh meats market, with business concentrated in North America and an important export role, as the U.S. became the world's largest pork exporter in 2024 1. Demand is supported by long-term trends such as high-protein diets and preference for convenient products 1.
The market is sensitive to hog, feed and fuel prices and to competition from beef and chicken 1. Cautious consumer spending and higher input costs led the company to revise its 2026 outlook 3.
Trends
- High-protein consumptiontailwind
Demand for high-protein diets, quality nutrition and convenient products supports, according to the company, growth in overall meat consumption 1. If this trend continues, it could support volumes in Packaged Meats.
- Cautious consumer spendingheadwind
The company cites cautious consumer spending as a pressure on its 2026 outlook 3. If this caution persists, volumes could be affected.
- Tariffs and trade tensionsheadwind
Products exported to China face tariffs of 25% to 47%, and the pace of U.S.-China trade relations remains uncertain 1. The impact on export sales could be significant if conditions worsen.
- Consolidation of hog productionmixed
The company is reducing internal hog production and buying more from independent suppliers, which could reduce exposure to grain and hog price swings 1. The effect depends on market conditions and contracts with farmers.
Competitive position
Smithfield competes with vertically integrated producers that also own hog farms, and with processors that buy all raw materials on the market. The company notes that when hog prices are below production costs, competitors without hog farms may have a cost advantage 1.
The market is competitive, and the ability to hold prices and share depends on brand strength and relations with large retailers 1. The company states that it gained market share in key branded categories 3.
- Hormel FoodsHRL
American processed meat producer with a strong position in deli and packaged meats.
- Tyson FoodsTSN
American meat processor active in chicken, beef and pork.
- Pilgrim's PridePPC
American chicken producer, relevant to competition in the protein category.
- Non-integrated hog buyers
Processors that buy hogs on the market and can benefit from lower costs when hog prices are high.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Smithfield Foods (SFD) Warns of Fresh Pork Loss as Industry Spreads CompressYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Smithfield Foods forecasts Q3 loss for fresh-pork armYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer on Smithfield Foods (SFD): “It’s a Very Inexpensive Stock”Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 11 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 27 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report27 Oct 2026
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report11 Aug 2026
- Current report03 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Proxy statement20 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / Smithfield Foods, Inc. · 24 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Smithfield Foods, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Smithfield Foods, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.