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olivLaw · US equity research

Starling Oncology, Inc. STLN

Services-Offices & Clinics of Doctors of Medicine · SIC 8011 · Vertical: Services-Offices & Clinics of Doctors of Medicine (SIC 8011)

6.94USD+9.46% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Starling Oncology (formerly The Oncology Institute) runs community oncology clinics but increasingly earns its revenue from value-based contracts, in which it takes on the cost risk of care for patient populations. Revenue rose 34.6% in the second quarter of 2026, and the company raised its 2026 guidance, which makes its model closely watched by investors.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Starling Oncology, Inc. (STLN) stock was 6.94 USD (+9.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 707.3 m USD, beta 1.72, 52-week range 2.39–7.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 161.3 m USD (+34.6% YoY), net income of -9.8 m USD, diluted EPS -0.08 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
707.3 m USD
shares as of 30 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.31 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-4.52%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.72
Volatility (1y) 78%
52-week range
2.397.05

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
56.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
6.15 – 7.05
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 13.6%
SMA 50 / 200
6.48 / 4.74
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.03 / 0.04
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+10.2%−1.1%+11.3 pp—
3 months+38.0%−0.5%+38.4 pp—
6 months+82.6%+4.4%+78.2 pp—
Year to date+94.9%+12.3%+82.6 pp—
1 year+63.7%+13.5%+50.1 pp−18.7%
3 years+243.6%+76.4%+167.2 pp−57.3%
5 years−30.5%+63.7%−94.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−44.7%
08 Jan 2026 → 12 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−98.8%
12 Nov 2021 → 20 Nov 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−7.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
161.3 m USD
+34.6% YoY
Net income
-9.8 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.08
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-6.1% / -2.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue99.9 m100.3 m104.4 m119.8 m136.6 m142.0 m147.4 m161.3 m
SG&A26.6 m24.9 m25.4 m26.9 m25.3 m28.0 m28.2 m29.9 m
Operating income-13.9 m-11.9 m-9.9 m-11.2 m-8.1 m-6.9 m-6.5 m-4.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation1.6 m1.7 m1.8 m1.8 m1.7 m1.6 m1.6 m1.8 m
Interest expense2.2 m1.2 m5.6 m1.9 m1.9 m1.9 m1.9 m1.9 m
Pre-tax income-16.1 m-13.2 m-19.6 m-17.1 m-16.5 m-7.5 m-2.5 m-9.8 m
Income tax000-131.0 k0000
Net income-16.1 m-13.2 m-19.6 m-17.0 m-16.5 m-7.5 m-2.5 m-9.8 m
Diluted EPS-0.18-0.17 ≈-0.21-0.15-0.14-0.07 ≈-0.02-0.08
Operating cash flow819.0 k ≈4.0 m-5.0 m-10.2 m ≈-12.6 m ≈3.2 m-2.2 m11.9 m ≈
Capex-402.0 k ≈1.8 m328.0 k1.2 m ≈604.0 k ≈1.1 m1.0 m908.0 k ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈0——————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202020212022202320242025
Revenue187.5 m203.0 m252.5 m324.2 m393.4 m502.7 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+8.3%+24.4%+28.4%+21.3%+27.8%
Net income-14.3 m-10.9 m152.0 k-83.1 m-64.7 m-60.6 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−54,750.0%unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.24-0.16-0.21-0.92-0.71-0.54
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-7.6%-5.4%0.1%-25.6%-16.4%-12.1%
Free cash flow-686.0 k-35.5 m-67.3 m-40.9 m-30.3 m-27.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
33.6 m USD
Financial debt
77.4 m USD
Net debt
43.8 m USD
Equity
-15.7 m USD
Total assets
164.7 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.59x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-35.9%
FCF margin
-5.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
324.2 m
2024
393.4 m
2025
502.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
113.9 m
2024
107.8 m
2025
105.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-77.0 m
2024
-60.1 m
2025
-36.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
5.9 m
2024
6.3 m
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-71.1 m ≈
2024
-53.8 m ≈
2025
-29.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
6.8 m
2024
7.5 m
2025
11.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-83.1 m
2024
-64.7 m
2025
-60.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-36.0 k
2024
0
2025
-131.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-83.1 m
2024
-64.7 m
2025
-60.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.92
2024
-0.71
2025
-0.54

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
73.7 m
2024
75.0 m
2025
92.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
33.5 m
2024
49.7 m
2025
33.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
42.4 m
2024
48.3 m
2025
59.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
13.7 m
2024
10.0 m
2025
16.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
143.5 m
2024
112.4 m
2025
112.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
10.9 m
2024
11.9 m
2025
10.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
7.2 m
2024
7.2 m
2025
7.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
17.9 m
2024
14.8 m
2025
11.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
209.2 m
2024
172.7 m
2025
164.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
14.4 m
2024
24.3 m
2025
43.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
86.8 m
2024
93.1 m
2025
77.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
34.8 m
2024
52.2 m
2025
71.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
152.2 m
2024
169.1 m
2025
180.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
57.0 m †
2024
3.6 m †
2025
-15.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-36.3 m
2024
-26.5 m
2025
-24.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
4.6 m
2024
3.8 m
2025
3.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-40.9 m ≈
2024
-30.3 m ≈
2025
-27.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
62.6 m
2024
46.2 m
2025
-3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-6.8 m
2024
-3.5 m
2025
11.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.0 m
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
27.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
25.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
21.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-6.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-21.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
-31.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
38.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
-3.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
328.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
3.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-3.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
707.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
746.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

6.94 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 707.3 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
707.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-6.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
27.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 906derived 71

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
0.15
USD per share
Mid
0.27
USD per share
High
0.46
USD per share
Price: 6.94 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -96.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -2,475.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.15 – 0.46 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)0.15 – 0.46 (Mid 0.27)
    WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 3.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Offices & Clinics of Doctors of Medicine (SIC 8011)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-6.2%50 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth25.8%100 (on a fixed band)25%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-3.4x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.4x47 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-0.5%0 (on a fixed band)25%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial50/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Starling Oncology, Inc. (STLN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 502.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 27.8%; net margin -6.2%.

The estimated value range is 0.15–0.46 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.27 USD, the price of 6.94 USD leaves a potential of -96.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -2,475.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 25.8%

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: -3.4x
  • FCF yield: -0.5%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Offices & Clinics of Doctors of Medicine (SIC 8011) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+48.1%)
P/B
—
vertical median 1.6x
ROE
—
vertical median -11.5%
Net margin
-6.2%
vertical median -5.9%
at median
EBIT margin
-4.4%
vertical median -6.6%
above median
Revenue YoY
27.8%
vertical median 13.2%
above median (+111.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TDOCTeladoc Health, Inc.1.8 bn—-11.5%-6.3%−1.5%+28% / −47%
STLNStarling Oncology, Inc.707.3 m——-6.2%+27.8%+64% / +244%
SBCSBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated547.1 m11.419.3%28.0%−15.5%+49% / −51%
CCMConcord Medical Services Holdings Ltd481.9 m——-20.2%+25.2%−4% / −63%
AIRSAirSculpt Technologies, Inc.122.6 m—-12.0%-7.8%−15.8%−52% / −66%
LFMDLifeMD, Inc.118.1 m—6.5%0.1%+25.3%−36% / −68%
BMGLBasel Medical Group Ltd8.2 m—-169.7%-94.0%unavailable−64% / unavailable
AUNAAuna S.A.——7.5%2.5%+13.2%0% / unavailable
HIMSHims & Hers Health, Inc.0—-32.0%-5.5%+59.0%−33% / +200%

1- and 3-year price returns: for STLN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Starling Oncology (formerly The Oncology Institute) runs community oncology clinics but increasingly earns its revenue from value-based contracts, in which it takes on the cost risk of care for patient populations. Revenue rose 34.6% in the second quarter of 2026 3, and the company raised its 2026 guidance 3, which makes its model closely watched by investors.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The value-based contract model provides recurring and predictable revenue through fixed monthly payments per member 1.
    • The community clinic network and the large managed patient population give the company a solid position in payor negotiations 12.
    • Second quarter 2026 results and the raised guidance indicate operating momentum 3.

    Weaknesses

    • The company has reported net losses in recent years, and sustainable profitability is not yet demonstrated 13.
    • Specialty pharmacy, the fastest-growing segment, carries lower margins than clinical services 1.
    • Reliance on a limited number of payors and on reimbursement makes revenue sensitive to their decisions 1.

    Opportunities

    • Expansion of delegated contracts into new states and the California exclusivity could add capitated revenue 3.
    • The shift toward chronic cancer care could increase demand for community oncology services 2.
    • Launch of the provider portal could strengthen adherence to clinical pathways across the network 3.

    Threats

    • Regulatory changes and Medicare rate cuts could directly hit the company's margins 1.
    • Competition from providers with greater resources could raise the cost of winning contracts 1.
    • Higher tariffs and exchange rate changes, noted in the guidance, could weigh on world trade and demand 3.

    Risks

    • Cost estimation riskhigh

      In capitation contracts the company bears the risk that costs exceed its payment, and wrong estimates can make contracts unprofitable 1.

    • Payor dependencehigh

      A significant part of revenue comes from a few payors and pharmacy benefit managers, which could decide to exclude the clinics from their networks 1.

    • Regulation and health reformmedium

      The company states it cannot predict the effect of health care reform or changes in government programs on its business 1.

    • Rapid growth and integrationmedium

      Fast expansion of the network and staff could strain management systems and affect the quality of care 1.

    • Technology and data riskmedium

      Reliance on information systems and third-party vendors exposes the company to outages, security breaches or data loss 12.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If capitated revenue grows after the new contracts in Nevada, Oregon and California, the company could turn revenue growth into steadier operating profit 3.
    • The high share of value-based contracts and a population of over two million patients offer a base that could support long-term growth 12.
    • If adjusted EBITDA stays positive, the company could show that its delegation model is financially sustainable 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • If payors or regulations cut rates, margins on capitation contracts could fall quickly 1.
    • Growth in lower-margin specialty pharmacy could dilute overall profitability if its share keeps rising 1.
    • The company has reported net losses in recent periods, and durable profit could lag if expansion costs rise faster than revenue 13.

    What to watch

    • Third quarter 2026 results and whether adjusted EBITDA meets the third quarter outlookQ3 2026
    • Launch of the Starling Nexus provider portal and its effect on network adherenceQ3 2026
    • Share of revenue from capitation and the direct cost margin on value-based contractsnext 10-K
    • Changes in payor contracts in California and new states, including the rates applied2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Founded in 2007, the company serves adult and senior oncology patients through community clinics run by physician-owned professional corporations, known as PCs. Its central model is capitation contracts and full delegation of care from a payor, which shift risk and treatment coordination to the company. Besides fee-for-service care, it operates specialty pharmacy and clinical trial activities 1.

    Value-based contracts are a large share of revenue: in 2025 more than 46% of revenue came from patients covered by such contracts 1. Capitation is paid monthly per member, and profit depends on the gap between that fixed payment and the actual cost of care. The company describes this structure as a way to reduce wasteful treatment and costs for payors and patients 1.

    Since 2025 the company has extended its network through full delegation, in which it also performs functions typical of insurers, such as utilization management and claims adjudication, both in its own clinics and in an independent provider network 1. This model allows reach to populations not served directly in company clinics 1.

    Market context

    The company operates in 17 markets across five states, with 65 clinics owned by affiliated PCs and 81 independently owned clinics contracted with its managed services organization 1. As of June 30, 2026, it managed a population of about 2.1 million patients under value-based agreements 2. The community oncology market is under pressure from rising treatment costs, which makes the company's model relevant to payors 1.

    The company links demand to the shift of cancer care toward chronic management rather than acute episodes, which increases the need for high-quality community care 2. Expansion beyond Florida into Nevada and Oregon shows the delegation model is also growing 3. Contracts however depend on payor decisions, which can change or end the relationship 1.

    Trends

    • Growth of specialty pharmacymixed

      High volumes of prescription fills, including Part D, drove fast revenue growth in pharmacy as new capitated lives joined the platform 3. If this pace holds, the segment could keep dominating the revenue mix, but at lower margins than clinical services 1.

    Competitive position

    The company says it faces competition from other healthcare service providers that pursue the same payor relationships and the same physicians and clinical staff 1. Some competitors have greater resources, and consolidation in the industry may raise the cost of winning contracts 1.

    The company also names large payor-affiliated networks, including Medicare Advantage organizations, which shows that market position is decided in negotiated contracts 1. A stated advantage is that independent providers can access managed populations without building the required infrastructure themselves 1.

    • Anthem

      Insurance group named in the source as part of the payor network with which the company holds value-based contracts 1.

    • CareMore Health

      Medicare Advantage provider named in the source as a contractual partner of the company 1.

    • Heritage Provider Network

      Provider network named in the source as a payor in value-based contracts 1.

    • Optum Care

      Care division of a healthcare services group, named as a value-based contract partner 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    • Current report02 Sept 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers
    • Current report21 Aug 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
    • Current report06 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report03 Aug 2026
      Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report07 Jul 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report18 Jun 2026
      Shareholder vote
    • Current report22 May 2026
      Material cybersecurity incident · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report07 May 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report07 May 2026

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Starling Oncology, Inc. · 12 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Starling Oncology, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Starling Oncology, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.