olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

TechPrecision Corporation TPCS

Fabricated Structural Metal Products · SIC 3440 · Vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 344x)

5.31USD−0.56% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

TechPrecision makes large precision metal structural components for the defense and precision industrial markets through its subsidiaries Ranor and Stadco. The company reported revenue growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, but it operates under covenant breaches on its bank loan and a going-concern warning, so its financial path depends on how the banking situation is resolved.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, TechPrecision Corporation (TPCS) stock was 5.31 USD (−0.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 53.6 m USD, beta 0.72, 52-week range 2.91–6.23 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 9.1 m USD (+23.3% YoY), net income of -153.0 k USD, diluted EPS -0.02 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
53.6 m USD
shares as of 06 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.13 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-2.48%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.72
Volatility (1y) 55%
52-week range
2.916.23

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
45.4
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
5.11 – 5.79
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.29 · band width 12.4%
SMA 50 / 200
5.45 / 4.52
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.02 / -0.01
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−0.4%−2.0%+1.6 pp—
3 months+12.5%−2.2%+14.7 pp—
6 months+30.5%+4.3%+26.2 pp—
Year to date+9.9%+10.6%−0.6 pp—
1 year+16.2%+10.5%+5.7 pp+1.9%
3 years−26.4%+73.7%−100.0 pp+85.2%
5 years−34.3%+61.7%−96.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−45.3%
08 Jan 2026 → 01 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−79.4%
13 Feb 2023 → 07 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−8.1%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
9.1 m USD
+23.3% YoY
Net income
-153.0 k USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.02
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-1.7% / -0.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27
Revenue8.9 m7.6 m9.5 m7.4 m9.1 m7.1 m8.1 m9.1 m
Cost of revenue7.9 m6.6 m7.4 m6.3 m6.6 m6.7 m7.0 m7.7 m
Gross profit1.0 m991.0 k2.1 m1.0 m2.5 m381.0 k1.1 m1.4 m
SG&A1.5 m1.7 m1.7 m1.5 m1.5 m1.7 m1.3 m1.4 m
Operating income-488.0 k-696.0 k367.0 k-463.0 k942.0 k-1.4 m-194.0 k-45.0 k
Depreciation & amortisation692.0 k702.0 k703.0 k701.0 k703.0 k694.0 k696.0 k698.0 k
Interest expense113.0 k147.0 k149.0 k135.0 k118.0 k121.0 k111.0 k106.0 k
Pre-tax income-601.0 k-799.0 k110.0 k-597.0 k825.0 k-1.5 m-388.0 k-153.0 k
Income tax———00031.0 k0
Net income-601.0 k-799.0 k112.0 k-597.0 k825.0 k-1.5 m-419.0 k-153.0 k
Diluted EPS-0.06-0.080.01 ≈-0.060.08-0.15-0.04 ≈-0.02
Operating cash flow-532.0 k ≈-570.0 k ≈396.0 k646.0 k-1.1 m ≈183.0 k ≈259.0 k1.9 m
Capex1.4 m ≈1.2 m ≈1.3 m1.3 m995.0 k ≈1.0 m ≈10.0 k2.4 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue16.7 m16.0 m15.6 m22.3 m31.4 m31.6 m34.0 m31.6 m
Revenue YoY−10.8%−4.2%−2.6%+42.9%+41.1%+0.5%+7.7%−7.0%
Net income1.1 munavailable320.6 k-349.8 k-979.0 k-7.0 m-2.7 m-1.7 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−209.1%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS0.04-0.010.01-0.04-0.11-0.81-0.29-0.17
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−125.0%unavailable−500.0%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %6.6%unavailable2.1%-1.6%-3.1%-22.3%-8.1%-5.3%
Free cash flow84.7 k636.9 k89.0 k-681.2 k812.5 k-2.5 m-4.7 m-3.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026

Cash
431.0 k USD
Financial debt
6.9 m USD
Net debt
6.5 m USD
Equity
7.7 m USD
Total assets
32.3 m USD
Debt / equity
0.90x
Current ratio
0.98x
ROE
-20.3%
ROA
-5.1%
FCF margin
-10.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
31.6 m
2025
34.0 m
2026
31.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
27.5 m
2025
29.7 m
2026
26.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
4.1 m
2025
4.3 m
2026
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

SG&A
2024
8.8 m
2025
6.5 m
2026
6.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Operating income
2024
-4.6 m
2025
-2.2 m
2026
-1.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
2.4 m
2025
2.8 m
2026
2.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
-2.2 m ≈
2025
638.0 k ≈
2026
1.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
521.0 k
2025
541.0 k
2026
485.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
-5.1 m
2025
-2.8 m
2026
-1.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Income tax
2024
1.9 m
2025
-2.0 k
2026
31.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Net income
2024
-7.0 m
2025
-2.7 m
2026
-1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
-0.81
2025
-0.29
2026
-0.17

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
8.7 m
2025
9.5 m
2026
9.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
138.0 k
2025
195.0 k
2026
431.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Receivables
2024
2.4 m
2025
2.2 m
2026
2.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Current assets
2024
14.9 m
2025
15.3 m
2026
17.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
14.8 m
2025
13.8 m
2026
10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Total assets
2024
34.7 m
2025
33.5 m
2026
32.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
1.4 m
2025
2.4 m
2026
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
7.6 m
2025
7.4 m
2026
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
—
2025
3.0 k
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Current liabilities
2024
17.8 m
2025
16.9 m
2026
18.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
26.9 m
2025
24.8 m
2026
24.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Equity
2024
7.8 m †
2025
8.7 m †
2026
7.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2024
—
2025
9.8 m
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
728.0 k
2025
-599.0 k
2026
6.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Capex
2024
3.2 m
2025
4.1 m
2026
3.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
-2.5 m ≈
2025
-4.7 m ≈
2026
-3.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-2.6 m
2025
-1.1 m
2026
868.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
1.5 m
2025
1.7 m
2026
-638.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-15.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-4.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
4.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-3.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
58.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
40 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
53.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
58.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
7.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
27.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
1.82
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 13 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

5.31 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 53.6 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
53.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
7.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
27.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-15.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 2141derived 181

Score by group

  • Quality9
  • Growth2
  • Valuation0
  • Balance sheet33

Estimated value range

Low
1.23
USD per share
Mid
2.14
USD per share
High
2.15
USD per share
Price: 5.31 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -59.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -148.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.23 – 2.15 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA1.23 – 2.15 (Mid 2.14)
    5 companies used · median multiple 12.2x · quartiles 7.9x – 12.3x
    ACA, GFF, JBI, VATE, VMI
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Fabricated metal products (SIC 344x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 13/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-4.2%0 (on a fixed band)16%
Net margin · Quality-3.7%25 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth0.2%2 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.1x60 (vs peers)16%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-1.4x0 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x16 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation27.2x0 (vs peers)16%
FCF yield · Valuation-6.0%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet33/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality9/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TECHPRECISION CORP (TPCS). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 31.6 m USD in 2026; YoY growth -7.0%; net margin -3.7%; ROE -15.4%; net debt/EBITDA 2.1x.

The estimated value range is 1.23–2.15 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.14 USD, the price of 5.31 USD leaves a potential of -59.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -148.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 13/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -4.2%
  • Net margin: -3.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.2%
  • Interest coverage: -1.4x
  • Current ratio: 1.0x
  • EV/EBITDA: 27.2x
  • FCF yield: -6.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Fabricated metal products (SIC 344x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 20.7x
EV/EBITDA
27.2x
vertical median 12.2x
above median (+122.4%)
P/S
1.6x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−11.8%)
P/B
7.0x
vertical median 1.7x
above median (+308.0%)
ROE
-15.4%
vertical median 5.5%
below median (−378.4%)
Net margin
-3.7%
vertical median 4.9%
below median (−175.2%)
EBIT margin
-1.9%
vertical median 8.3%
below median (−123.4%)
Revenue YoY
-7.0%
vertical median 6.4%
below median (−209.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
2.1x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−8.8%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
VMIValmont Industries, Inc.8.1 bn15.930.8%12.1%+0.7%+2% / +92%
ACAArcosa, Inc.7.3 bn14.917.9%17.9%+12.2%+46% / +116%
GFFGriffon Corporation4.9 bn27.4185.4%6.5%−3.9%+43% / +131%
PRLBProto Labs, Inc.1.6 bn46.65.1%6.0%+6.4%+31% / +84%
SMRNUSCALE POWER Corp1.2 bn—-30.2%-3,888.7%−15.0%−74% / +85%
JBIJanus International Group, Inc.682.2 m20.76.0%3.7%unavailable−19% / −53%
IMSRTerrestrial Energy Inc.304.0 m—-36.8%—unavailable−70% / unavailable
VATEInnovate Corp.74.1 m——-1.5%+12.5%+5% / −49%
TPCSTechprecision Corp53.6 m—-15.4%-3.7%−7.0%+16% / −26%
MTENMingteng International Corporation Inc.8.4 m—-11.7%-15.3%+15.3%−100% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for TPCS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    TechPrecision makes large precision metal structural components for the defense and precision industrial markets through its subsidiaries Ranor and Stadco. The company reported revenue growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, but it operates under covenant breaches on its bank loan and a going-concern warning, so its financial path depends on how the banking situation is resolved.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a solid position in defense, where most revenue comes from government and prime contractor customers, and its quality certifications and ITAR compliance are barriers to new entrants.
    • The order book, made up of funded backlog and unfunded purchase orders, gives visibility over the next two to three fiscal years, according to management.
    • The two subsidiaries have complementary capabilities, from heavy fabrication and machining to electron beam welding and non-destructive testing, which allows integrated solutions.

    Weaknesses

    • Dependence on a small number of customers means losing one major contract could have an outsized effect on revenue and profitability.
    • The company is loss-making, and debt has become current because of breached covenants, which reduces financial flexibility.
    • Reliance on individual purchase orders rather than long-term contracts makes revenue hard to forecast and prone to large swings between quarters.

    Opportunities

    • If project mix at Stadco keeps improving, margins could recover and losses could narrow further.
    • Higher defense spending and existing naval or aerospace programs could generate new orders for the company's components.
    • Diversifying away from the largest contractors could reduce concentration and steady revenue over the longer term.

    Threats

    • Failure to meet covenants and a lack of renewal of the revolving credit line could force accelerated repayment that the company could not fully pay.
    • Defense budget cuts or delays in military programs could reduce orders and seriously affect the company's operations.
    • Lower-cost competitors, including foreign ones, could force price cuts and squeeze the company's margins.

    Risks

    • Going-concern doubthigh

      The auditors expressed substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern. If the bank does not waive covenants or extend the facility, the company may have to seek additional financing on harsher terms.

    • Breached loan covenantshigh

      The company did not meet certain financial covenants at the end of fiscal 2026, and the bank could demand full repayment if it does not grant a waiver. The consequences of such a demand could be severe for liquidity.

    • Customer concentrationhigh

      A small number of customers generate almost all revenue, and losing or changing one of them could hurt profitability. The company says this dependence is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

    • Project-based contract modelmedium

      Contracts are mostly individual purchase orders rather than long-term agreements, so future revenue is not assured and can vary widely.

    • Stadco losses and margin recoverymedium

      Stadco has produced recurring losses, and a return to profitability depends on project execution and better use of capacity. If improvements do not materialize, pressure on finances could increase.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If revenue growth from the first quarter of fiscal 2027 holds and the project mix keeps lifting margins, the company could narrow its losses and reach its stated growth targets 3.
    • A large order book anchored in long-running defense programs could give visibility for several fiscal years 3.
    • Quality certifications and export compliance for defense work could be advantages that new competitors find hard to replicate, provided military demand stays steady.

    What would break the thesis

    • Going-concern doubts and breached covenants could lead to repayment demands or more expensive financing, which could hurt shareholders badly.
    • Dependence on a few customers and on non-recurring contracts means results could swing sharply, and losing one major client could wipe out recent progress.
    • If Stadco cannot improve capacity use, losses could persist and the company might miss its financial targets for fiscal 2027.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against fiscal 2027 revenue and EBITDA guidancefiscal 2027
    • Whether the bank grants waivers on covenants and extends the revolving credit lineSeptember 2026
    • Stadco gross margin trend and the narrowing of segment lossesQ2 2027
    • Conversion of roughly 22 million dollars of unfunded purchase orders into funded ordersnext three fiscal years

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    TechPrecision Corporation, through its two wholly owned subsidiaries, Ranor and Stadco, manufactures large-scale fabricated and machined precision metal components built to customer drawings and specifications, on a build-to-print basis. According to its annual report for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, the company does not design the products it makes and holds no proprietary intellectual property. All operations and customers are in the United States, and the company had 160 employees on March 31, 2026 1.

    The business runs mainly on individual purchase orders rather than long-term contracts, so revenue is lumpy and hard to predict from quarter to quarter. Customers fall into two groups, defense and precision industrial, with the industrial group a very small share, about 1% of revenue in fiscal 2026 1. The company says it aims to be an end-to-end provider, covering heavy fabrication, precision machining, assembly, inspection and non-destructive testing.

    Ranor, with roughly 145,000 square feet of facilities in Massachusetts, makes welded and machined components of up to 100 tons, while Stadco in Los Angeles makes critical components for military aircraft, helicopter and space programs. Both subsidiaries hold quality certifications and are registered and compliant with ITAR export rules, which matter for defense work 1.

    Segments

    Ranor

    Ranor is the company's longer-standing segment and makes large components, up to 100 tons, at its Massachusetts complex. More than 95% of its revenue comes from the defense sector. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Ranor revenue rose 27% and gross profit rose 4%, management said, on a more favorable customer and project mix 3.

    Stadco

    Stadco makes mission-critical components for military aircraft, helicopter and space programs, plus tooling, molds and fixtures for defense aircraft production. Almost all of its revenue is from defense, and according to the annual report it has produced recurring operating losses 1. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Stadco revenue rose 22% and its losses narrowed, which management attributed to a strategic change in project mix 3.

    Market context

    The market the company serves is fragmented, with no dominant player, and includes both domestic and foreign manufacturers. Defense is the main source of demand, and concentration is a concern: the company's ten largest customers produced 92% of revenue in fiscal 2026 1. For defense contracts foreign competition is limited, while for other products foreign rivals may have lower production costs 1.

    Demand depends heavily on defense budgets and on submarine and military helicopter programs such as the Virginia-class submarine program for the U.S. Navy. Changes in government defense spending and tariffs could shift order volumes, and demand could fall if major customers cut production 1.

    Trends

    • Government defense spendingmixed

      Defense budgets are the main demand source for both subsidiaries. A rise or a reallocation in these budgets could support orders, while a cut could reduce demand for large components.

    • Customer and project mixtailwind

      Management says a shift in customer and project mix lifted revenue and narrowed losses in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. If this pattern holds, margins could keep improving 3.

    • Financing and covenant pressureheadwind

      The company was not in compliance with certain financial covenants as of March 31, 2026, and the bank could demand full repayment. The situation has been deferred but remains a pressure on liquidity 1.

    • Raw material and energy costsmixed

      The company depends on specialty metal alloys with long lead times, and rising tariffs, energy costs or interest rates could hurt margins. Customers often supply raw materials, which limits the exposure 1.

    Competitive position

    The company competes with domestic and foreign manufacturers, some larger or smaller, some with greater resources or lower production costs. The annual report says being a domestic manufacturer can matter for defense contracts, and that preferred vendors of prime contractors can shape product specifications to their own products 1.

    The company says it differentiates on quality of work, reputation, ability to meet schedules and competitive pricing. Because the industry is fragmented, no single rival dominates it, and the annual report does not name specific competitors 1.

    • Domestic defense and aerospace component makers

      Larger and smaller rivals with different resources that can bid for the same military contracts; the report does not name them.

    • Foreign manufacturers with lower production costs

      Overseas rivals that may offer lower prices on products without defense restrictions; the company refers to this group without naming any firm.

    • Preferred vendors of prime contractors

      Suppliers that can shape product specifications and disadvantage the company in bids; the report describes them generically.

    • Precision industrial component producers

      Rivals in the precision industrial market, a very small segment for the company in fiscal 2026; none are named in the sources.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / TechPrecision Corporation · 25 Jun 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / TechPrecision Corporation · 13 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / TechPrecision Corporation · 13 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.