olivLaw · European equity research
Elisa Oyj ELISA.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Elisa Oyj is a Finnish telecommunications and digital services operator, also active in Estonia and, through international software services, in several other countries. For fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of 2257 million euros, and its 2026 guidance points to similar or slightly higher revenue amid intense competition in the Finnish telecom market.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Elisa Oyj (ELISA.HE) stock was 34.74 EUR (+1.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.6 bn EUR, P/E 16.3 on diluted EPS of 2.13 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.76%, beta 0.10, 52-week range 32.02–44.86 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 31.54 – 36.49
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.65 · band width 14.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 35.48 / 38.51
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.57 / -0.73
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.2% | +0.4% | −0.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.5% | −3.3% | +1.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −14.8% | +4.0% | −18.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.9% | +8.1% | −16.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −7.3% | +10.7% | −18.0 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | −17.5% | +50.1% | −67.6 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −35.5% | +43.6% | −79.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 17.7, median 18.2, max 18.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.0% |
| Net income | 358.4 m | 342.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −4.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.23 | 2.13 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −4.5% |
| net % | 16.4% | 15.2% |
| Free cash flow | 344.2 m | 409.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 189.5 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.6 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.4 bn EUR
- Equity
- 1.3 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 3.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.25x
- Current ratio
- 1.08x
- ROE
- 26.8%
- ROA
- 10.0%
- FCF margin
- 18.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 487.6 m | 465.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 47.9 m | 49.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 447.9 m | 424.8 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 91.5 m | 83.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 358.4 m | 342.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.23 | 2.13 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 160.7 m | 160.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.24 | 2.35 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 89.9 m | 189.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 573.0 m | 577.8 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 75.6 m | 47.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 746.8 m | 826.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 874.5 m | 891.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 234.6 m | 244.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 424.2 m | 440.3 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 458.5 m | 275.4 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 913.6 m | 766.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 160.7 m | 160.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 650.9 m | 688.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 306.7 m | 279.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 344.2 m ≈ | 409.6 m ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -394.9 m | -289.1 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -228.8 m | -298.8 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 359.8 m | 381.4 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 74 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.6 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet69
- Returns74
- Quality81
- Valuation67
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.54 – 62.95 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)33.74 – 62.95 (Mid 44.39)WACC 7.5% · starting FCFF 449.8 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -5.4%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E17.54 – 39.40 (Mid 23.64)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 18.5xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)31.96 – 43.58 (Mid 36.88)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 74/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.1% | 71 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.2% | 79 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 119.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 23 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.3x | 46 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.3% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.8% | 98 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 93.1% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet69/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Elisa Oyj (ELISA.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 3.0%; net margin 15.2%; ROE 27.0%.
The estimated value range is 31.96–43.58 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 36.88 EUR, the price of 34.74 EUR leaves a potential of 6.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 5.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 74/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 14.1%
- Net margin: 15.2%
- FCF conversion: 119.8%
- Interest coverage: 9.3x
- FCF yield: 7.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.8%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −17% / +4% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ELISA.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 20.22 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 35.78 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 53.93 Total return 63% · Per year 63% |
| 3 years | 19.04 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 37.95 Total return 29% · Per year 9% | 62.90 Total return 106% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 17.92 Total return -26% · Per year -6% | 40.26 Total return 49% · Per year 8% | 73.35 Total return 156% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 9.49
- Net margin± 6.64
- Annual revenue growth± 5.53
- Annual dilution± 0.56
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Elisa Oyj is a Finnish telecommunications and digital services operator, also active in Estonia and, through international software services, in several other countries. For fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of 2257 million euros, and its 2026 guidance points to similar or slightly higher revenue amid intense competition in the Finnish telecom market 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A leading position in the Finnish telecom market and a broad base of consumer and corporate customers 1.
- Solid operating margins and comparable cash flow that support the dividend policy 1.
- Sustainability-linked financing commitments and a sustainability report verified by a third party for the thirteenth consecutive year 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Intense competitionhigh
Competition in the Finnish telecom market, especially in mobile and fixed broadband, could affect revenue and margins 1.
- Macroeconomic uncertaintymedium
Weak economic growth and uncertainty could delay corporate client investments and IT projects 1.
- Decline of fixed connectionsmedium
A fall in the number and use of traditional fixed connections could reduce revenue in this segment 1.
- Indebtednessmedium
A high level of net debt relative to equity could limit financial flexibility if financing conditions worsen 1.
- Compliance and reporting riskslow
Sustainability reporting and compliance requirements could generate extra costs and errors if internal processes are not robust enough 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in mobile service revenue and in the international software division could support steady revenue growth 1.
- Guidance for 2026 points to similar or slightly higher revenue, and growing cash flow could support dividends 1.
- Demand for cybersecurity and IT services could offer growth opportunities in the corporate segment 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Revenue and comparable EBITDA guidance for 20262026
- Development of mobile service revenueQ1 2027
- Payment of the approved dividend instalments for 20252026
- Development of net debt relative to EBITDAnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Elisa offers consumer and corporate customers mobile and fixed connections, IT services, IoT services, equipment, cybersecurity services and entertainment services. The company serves about 2,8 million customers in Finland and Estonia, and in fiscal 2025 had 6744 employees in 21 countries 1. Its growing international digital business offers software services to manufacturing and telecom clients worldwide 1.
The group structure was adjusted in 2025: Banana Fingers and Epic TV SAS were sold in July, and Elisa Eesti AS was transferred to Karelsat Oy, which later merged into Elisa Oyj 1. According to the report these transactions have no effect on the consolidated income statement or balance sheet 1.
The dividend policy foresees distributing 80–100% of the previous year's result, and the board proposed a dividend of at most 2,40 euros per share for 2025, payable in four instalments 1. The company also tracks sustainability-linked financing targets, including 100% carbon-free electricity procurement 1.
Segments
Corporate customers
The corporate customers division generated revenue of 750 million euros in fiscal 2025, roughly flat year on year, with a comparable EBITDA margin of 34,2% 1. The offering includes ICT equipment, mobile and fixed connections and IoT services for efficiency and security 1.
Consumer and digital services
The consumer business includes mobile and fixed broadband, telephony, equipment, security and entertainment services. Growth in mobile service revenue was the main driver of revenue growth in fiscal 2025 1.
Market context
The Finnish telecom market is competitive, especially in mobile, where demand for 5G remained strong 1. In fixed broadband competition is tight and the number of traditional fixed connections is declining 1.
Demand for IT and cybersecurity services rose amid geopolitical uncertainty, although broader economic uncertainty delayed some corporate investment decisions. Finnish economic growth was weak 1.
Trends
- Demand for mobile and 5G servicestailwind
Mobile service usage developed favourably, and a wider range of 5G devices and better coverage support demand. If this continues it could support mobile service revenue growth 1.
- Demand for cybersecuritytailwind
Geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for cybersecurity services, a direction that could support the corporate segment 1.
- Decline of traditional fixed connectionsheadwind
The number and use of traditional fixed connections are falling, and competition in fixed broadband remains intense, pressuring revenue in this segment 1.
- Economic uncertaintymixed
Weak Finnish economic growth and macroeconomic uncertainty have delayed investments by some corporate clients, which could affect projects but may recover if the economy improves 1.
Competitive position
Elisa operates in a telecom environment with intense competition, especially in the mobile and fixed broadband markets in Finland 1. The report does not name individual competitors, so the list below is limited to what can be identified in the sources 1.
In IT and security services Elisa competes with ICT service providers and integrators, and in international software with specialised companies serving manufacturing clients 1. The outcome depends on maintaining network and service quality 1.
- Finnish telecom operators
Direct competition in mobile and fixed broadband, described in the report as intense 1.
- ICT service providers and integrators
Competition in corporate IT services and cybersecurity, a segment with growing demand 1.
- International industrial software companies
Competition in the international software division where Elisa is expanding 1.
- Entertainment and television service providers
Competition in consumer entertainment services, an area where Elisa reduced activity by selling Epic TV 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Living in a Ghost Town: The Geography of Depopulation and Aging -- by Elisa Giannone, Yuhei Miyauchi, Nuno Paixao, Xinle Pang, Yuta SuzukiNBER — New Working Papers · 05 Oct 2026 · EN
- Elisa – marea poveste de iubire care a cucerit Italia ajunge la Prima TVProfit.ro · 07 Sept 2026 · RO
- CEC Bank pentru afaceri româneşti. Elisa Cristea, Ţuca Zbârcea & Asociaţii: Rămâne provocatoare trecerea de la proiectele energetice aflate în etapa de dezvoltare la puneri în funcţiune. Traseul este în continuare anevoiosZiarul Financiar · 05 Aug 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Elisa Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.