olivLaw · European equity research
GRK Infra Oyj GRK.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
GRK Infra Oyj is a Finnish infrastructure construction group active in Finland, Sweden and Estonia, with exposure to rail and urban transit projects. The company listed on the stock exchange in April 2025 and updated its long-term targets. Revenue in fiscal 2025 was 872.3 million euro and net profit was 43 million euro.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, GRK Infra Oyj (GRK.HE) stock was 19.60 EUR (−2.73% on the day), with market capitalisation 788.5 m EUR, P/E 18.3 on diluted EPS of 1.07 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.97%, beta 0.55, 52-week range 11.97–27.60 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 30.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 17.83 – 28.72
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.16 · band width 46.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 24.02 / 17.97
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.45 / -0.93
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −29.0% | +0.4% | −29.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.8% | −3.3% | −4.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +34.2% | +4.0% | +30.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +36.7% | +8.1% | +28.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +52.1% | +10.7% | +41.4 pp | −2.6% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +50.1% | unavailable | +5.4% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +43.6% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 13.4, median 13.4, max 13.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 728.6 m | 872.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +19.7% |
| Net income | 36.9 m | 43.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +16.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +15.1% |
| net % | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| Free cash flow | 45.0 m | 142.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 248.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 15.6 m EUR
- Net debt
- -232.9 m EUR
- Equity
- 190.1 m EUR
- Total assets
- 520.8 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.08x
- Current ratio
- 1.40x
- ROE
- 27.8%
- ROA
- 10.1%
- FCF margin
- 16.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 728.6 m | 872.3 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 45.2 m | 53.5 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 2.8 m | 4.8 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 45.8 m | 52.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 8.9 m | 9.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 36.9 m | 43.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.93 | 1.07 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.16 | 0.19 | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 126.7 m | 248.6 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 108.7 m | 126.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 6.7 m | 8.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 242.6 m | 418.6 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 72.3 m | 82.3 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 334.5 m | 520.8 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 106.1 m | 94.2 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 16.7 m | 15.6 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 184.7 m | 298.3 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 215.2 m | 330.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 119.3 m | 190.1 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 39.7 m | 40.2 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 61.5 m | 157.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 16.6 m | 15.1 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 45.0 m ≈ | 142.6 m ≈ | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -15.4 m | -56.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -15.2 m | 17.3 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 6.2 m | 7.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 5.0 m | 0 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 788.5 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.81 – 105.19 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)69.19 – 105.19 (Mid 83.01)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 146.5 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E8.81 – 18.78 (Mid 11.87)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 17.6xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate2.59 – 3.53 (Mid 2.99)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.9% | 51 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 331.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 50 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.3x | 39 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 18.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.0% | 14 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 5.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GRK Infra Oyj (GRK.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 872.3 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 19.7%; net margin 4.9%; ROE 27.8%.
The estimated value range is 39.00–61.98 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 47.44 EUR, the price of 19.60 EUR leaves a potential of 142.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 58.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 331.3%
- Interest coverage: 11.2x
- FCF yield: 18.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 5.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.0%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −17% / +4% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GRK.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.81 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 22.54 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 33.81 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 15.19 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 29.81 Total return 56% · Per year 16% | 48.69 Total return 153% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 18.02 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 39.42 Total return 109% · Per year 16% | 70.11 Total return 268% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 7.45
- Net margin± 5.22
- Annual revenue growth± 3.89
- Annual dilution± 0.44
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
GRK Infra Oyj is a Finnish infrastructure construction group active in Finland, Sweden and Estonia, with exposure to rail and urban transit projects. The company listed on the stock exchange in April 2025 and updated its long-term targets. Revenue in fiscal 2025 was 872.3 million euro and net profit was 43 million euro.
SWOT
Strengths
- Presence in three countries and a diversified rail portfolio combining construction, design and maintenance 1.
- Strengthened financial position, with a high equity ratio and negative net debt at the end of fiscal 2025 1.
- Revenue and profit growth over prior years, supported by steady demand from public clients 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- The Rail Baltica project in Estonia could become a major contract if the execution phase is confirmed in summer 2026 1.
- Investment in electrical networks, circular economy and data centres offers room for expansion in Finland and Sweden 1.
- Expansion into southern Sweden, with a new office in Stockholm, could open access to new regional projects 1.
Risks
- Rail Baltica timinghigh
The decision on the execution phase is planned for summer 2026, and a delay could push revenue into later years 1.
- Seasonality and the first halfmedium
The company expects a weak first half due to winter conditions and the stage of large projects, which could affect quarterly comparisons 1.
- Competitive pressuremedium
Intense competition in construction could reduce margins, especially on fixed-price contracts 1.
- Rail market in Finlandmedium
The expected decline in rail maintenance in Finland could reduce the volume of an important segment 1.
- Dependence on public clientslow
Most large projects are contracted with public authorities, and budget changes could affect new orders 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Rail Baltica project enters the execution phase, revenue and the order backlog could rise significantly 1.
- The raised revenue target for 2028 shows management confidence in growing both existing and new markets 1.
- A solid balance sheet with negative net debt could provide flexibility for investment and dividends 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Rail Baltica execution phase decisionsummer 2026
- Annual general meeting and proposed dividend paymentApril 2026
- First quarter results against revenue guidanceQ1 2026
- Development of the order backlog and new contracts in Sweden2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
GRK provides infrastructure construction services including bridges and tunnels, roads, electrical networks and industrial projects, as well as design and maintenance services for railways 1. It operates in three countries, Finland, Sweden and Estonia, with an average of 1197 employees in 2025 1. The group began trading in April 2025 and reported an order backlog of 382 million euro at the end of 2025 1.
In rail, GRK offers construction, design and maintenance, and is currently developing the Rail Baltica project in Estonia under an alliance contract 1. Paving and environmental services complete the portfolio. The company expects the rail maintenance market in Finland to shrink, while its Estonian business is oriented to large long-term projects 1.
For 2026, the company guides to revenue of 720–870 million euro and adjusted operating profit of 45–60 million euro 1. The first half is expected to be weak due to seasonality and the stage of large projects, which could affect quarterly comparisons 1.
Segments
Road and bridge infrastructure
This segment covers bridges, tunnels, roads and paving, where GRK relies on public and private infrastructure projects 1. Demand in Finland and Sweden is supported by road investments and infrastructure for data centres 1.
Rail and Rail Baltica
The rail segment includes construction, design and maintenance, including the Southwest Finland maintenance contract extended to March 2028 at a value of about 10 million euro 1. The Rail Baltica project, with an initial estimated value of 158–216 million euro, is the main growth opportunity 1.
Environmental and industrial construction
Environmental services and industrial construction complement the group, with focus on the circular economy and electrical networks 1. In November 2025 the company signed a contract for the first phase of the Vantaa tram, adding about 45 million euro to its backlog 1.
Market context
Management expects infrastructure construction markets to grow in 2026 in all operating countries, but competition remains tight because of weak residential construction 1. Demand is expected to grow in electrical networks and the circular economy, as well as in defence and border security investments 1. The rail maintenance market in Finland is expected to decline 1.
In Estonia, investment is concentrated on Rail Baltica, and a decision on the execution phase is planned for summer 2026 1. If the decision is postponed, revenue from this project could be lower than currently estimated 1.
Trends
- Investment in electrical networks and circular economytailwind
Demand for electrical networks and circular economy projects is expected to grow steadily in all countries where the company operates 1. This could support new orders over the medium term 1.
- Defence and border security investmenttailwind
Management believes defence and border security investment will support the market in Finland and Sweden 1. The effect depends on the timing of public budgets 1.
- Weak residential constructionheadwind
The decline in residential construction keeps competitive pressure on prices, which could reduce margins on some contracts 1.
- Rail maintenance in Finlandmixed
The rail maintenance market in Finland is expected to contract, but existing contracts, such as those in the southwest, provide short-term visibility 1. The net effect is mixed 1.
Competitive position
Nordic infrastructure is a field with many players of varying size, and management describes competitive pressure as high 1. The sources do not identify specific competitors, so the list below is limited to what could be verified from the official document.
GRK's stated advantage lies in its combination of rail expertise, design and maintenance, and regional presence in three countries 1. The 2028 revenue target of above 950 million euro shows its ambition to grow in a contested market 1.
- Local infrastructure construction firms in Finland
The official source does not name competing companies; competition is described as intense.
- Construction companies in Sweden
The source mentions competition in the construction market only, without names.
- Rail project builders in the Baltic states
The Rail Baltica project attracts several contractors, without details in the source.
- Environmental and industrial service providers
The source does not identify competitors in this area.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202510 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202510 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / GRK Infra Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.