olivLaw · European equity research
Finnair Oyj FIA1S.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Finnair is a Finnish airline operating passenger and cargo traffic between North America, Asia and Europe, and offering package tours through its Aurinkomatkat brand. In fiscal 2025 revenue reached 3106.2 million EUR, a modest increase, while weak North Atlantic demand and strikes that cancelled more than 2600 flights weighed on results.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Finnair Oyj (FIA1S.HE) stock was 4.54 EUR (−1.65% on the day), with market capitalisation 927.4 m EUR, P/E 50.4 on diluted EPS of 0.09 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.43%, beta 1.35, 52-week range 2.59–5.53 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.96 – 4.55
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 13.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.42 / 4.03
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.8% | +0.4% | +1.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.0% | −3.3% | −7.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +20.4% | +4.0% | +16.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +44.4% | +8.1% | +36.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +66.2% | +10.7% | +55.5 pp | −2.6% |
| 3 years | −7.8% | +50.1% | −57.9 pp | +4.1% |
| 5 years | −61.6% | +43.6% | −105.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 12.3, median 23.6, max 34.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.9% |
| Net income | 37.0 m | 18.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −50.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −50.0% |
| net % | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 529.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.0 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 490.5 m EUR
- Equity
- 636.7 m EUR
- Total assets
- 3.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.60x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 2.9%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 114.2 m | 64.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 107.2 m | 81.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 46.1 m | 23.3 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.1 m | 5.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 37.0 m | 18.4 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.09 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.11 | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 219.1 m | 529.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 125.4 m | 51.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 735.4 m | 968.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 627.1 m | 636.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 205.6 m | 204.4 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 927.4 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
40% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.75 – 2.04 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.75 – 1.66 (Mid 1.02)24 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 8.3x – 18.4xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)1.50 – 2.04 (Mid 1.73)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.2% | 25 (vs peers) | 26% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.6% | 36 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 50.4x | 14 (vs peers) | 26% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.4% | 35 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial35/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FINNAIR OYJ (FIA1S.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 1.9%; net margin 0.6%; ROE 2.9%.
The estimated value range is 1.12–1.85 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.37 EUR, the price of 4.54 EUR leaves a potential of -69.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -229.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 4.2%
- Interest coverage: 0.8x
- P/E (TTM): 50.4x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −17% / +4% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FIA1S.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.61 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 4.62 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 6.97 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 2.40 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 4.80 Total return 12% · Per year 4% | 7.96 Total return 83% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 2.21 Total return -44% · Per year -11% | 4.98 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 9.10 Total return 115% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 1.20
- Net margin± 0.84
- Annual revenue growth± 0.71
- Annual dilution± 0.07
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Finnair is a Finnish airline operating passenger and cargo traffic between North America, Asia and Europe, and offering package tours through its Aurinkomatkat brand. In fiscal 2025 revenue reached 3106.2 million EUR, a modest increase, while weak North Atlantic demand and strikes that cancelled more than 2600 flights weighed on results 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A strong brand and reputation built over many years, a loyalty programme with more than 5 million members and a leading position in package tours 1.
- Strategic partnerships with key suppliers and oneworld cooperation that support the global network 1.
- Growth in ancillary revenue shows the company's ability to monetise additional services 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Strike-related disruptionhigh
Industrial action led to the cancellation of more than 2600 flights and to extra compensation costs, which could affect results if disputes recur 1.
- Weak North Atlantic demandhigh
Lower load factors and pressure on average fares on North Atlantic routes could continue if geopolitical uncertainty persists 1.
- China route limitationsmedium
Chinese carriers can use Russian airspace while Europe-China demand has yet to recover, which limits the company's operations there 1.
- Rising operating costsmedium
Traffic charges, capacity rents and staff costs increased, which could compress margins if prices do not rise in parallel 1.
- Currency and fuel exposurelow
Although the hedging policy reduces direct impact, movements in the dollar and jet fuel prices can affect costs over the medium term 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The brand, a loyalty programme with more than 5 million members and a leading position in package tours give the company a solid base for growth 1.
- Demand in Asia grew through 2025, and additional capacity on these routes could support revenue if the trend continues 1.
- Ancillary and travel service revenue both grew, showing the potential to monetise existing customers 1.
What would break the thesis
- The comparable operating margin fell and costs rose faster than revenue, which could limit the company's capacity to invest 1.
- Dependence on the weak North Atlantic market exposes the company to geopolitical risks that may persist 1.
- Repeated strikes and disruption could weigh on customer confidence and compensation costs if they recur 1.
What to watch
- Development of North Atlantic demand and average fares2026
- Risk of further strikes and their effect on cancelled flights2026
- Recovery of Europe-China demand2027
- Development of operating costs, including traffic charges and capacity rentsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Finnair operates as a network airline, with direct flights to about 40 countries and over 100 destinations, and builds its activity on three pillars: passenger transport, cargo transport and travel services. The Finnair Plus loyalty programme has more than 5 million members and over 100 partners, and cooperation with oneworld partners, including the Siberian Joint Business, the Atlantic Joint Business and the Qatar Airways partnership in the Middle East, completes the network 1. The company is exposed to industry cyclicality, jet fuel prices, exchange rates and external factors, which it partly offsets through its hedging policy 1. Aurinkomatkat held the largest share of passengers on air package travel abroad in 2025, showing the brand's position in the Finnish travel market 1.
The company's key intangible resources include the brand and reputation built over the years, skilled employees and strategic partnerships with key suppliers, which Finnair regards as part of its long-term growth strategy 1. It adapted to the closure of Russian airspace in 2022 with longer routings to Asia, but operations to China remain limited because Chinese carriers can use Russian airspace and Europe-China demand has yet to recover 1.
Segments
Market context
The air cargo market continued to grow in 2025 after the record year 2024, but demand softened and yields declined under the influence of US trade tariffs 1. Global cargo capacity expanded broadly in line with demand 1. In passenger traffic, demand was higher in Asia and the Nordics and Baltics, while the North Atlantic stayed weak and average fares per kilometre declined 1.
Jet fuel prices fell in 2025 compared with the previous year and the US dollar weakened against the euro, but these effects are not directly reflected in the company's result because of its hedging policy 1. The Finnish travel market remained under pressure from hotel prices and price-sensitive consumers, and demand for city breaks declined 1.
Trends
- Recovering demand in Asiatailwind
Demand in Asia, supported by leisure travel from Japan, grew through 2025 and supported the company's revenue 1.
- Weaker North Atlantic demandheadwind
Economic and geopolitical uncertainty linked to US foreign policy reduced demand on routes between the Nordics and North America, which could continue to weigh on results if tensions persist 1.
- Higher operating costsheadwind
Traffic charges, capacity rents and staff costs rose, and costs linked to the EU sustainable aviation fuel obligation and emissions trading increased significantly 1.
- Fuel prices and currencymixed
Lower jet fuel prices and a weaker dollar could reduce costs, but the hedging policy limits the direct impact on the result 1.
Competitive position
Finnair competes with other airlines operating routes between Europe, Asia and North America, particularly through European hubs, and maintains its position through its Asian routes, oneworld cooperation and the Qatar Airways partnership 1. Competition from Chinese carriers that can use Russian airspace limits its access to the Chinese market 1.
In package tours, Aurinkomatkat competes with other Finnish travel operators, and its leading position in air package travel points to a market advantage, although demand in Finland is under pressure 1.
- European oneworld airlines
Cooperation partners that are also competitors on European and North Atlantic routes, according to the sources 1.
- Chinese airlines
Competition on Europe-China routes, with access to Russian airspace that gives them a routing advantage, according to the sources 1.
- Qatar Airways
Cooperation partner in the Middle East, whose joint flights between Nordic cities and Doha ended for certain flights in January 2025, according to the sources 1.
- Finnish travel operators
Competition for package tours in a domestic market under pressure from prices and consumer price sensitivity 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Alerte cu bombe: Pilotul cursei Dublin - Roma este anchetat, după ce a refuzat să aterizeze la o bază militară - Spotmedia.roSpotMedia.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Fighter Jets Scrambled As More Bomb Threats Force Multiple Passenger Flights To DivertSimple Flying · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Încă o alertă cu bombă pe Aeroportul Otopeni. Un avion Air Serbia, verificat de echipele de intervențieMediafax · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Val de alerte false cu bombă la avioane din toată Europa / Două zboruri din România afectate. E suspectată o grupare din RusiaEconomedia · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Val de amenințări cu bombă pe cerul Europei. 18 avioane vizate într-o singură zi. Reacția Comisiei Europene - Cotidianul ROSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Val de amenințări cu bombă în Europa: 18 zboruri vizate într-o singură zi. Experții suspectează un „act deliberat”Mediafax · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Multiple Alerte cu Bombă în Zboruri Europene, Inclusiv la București, Panicând Milioane de Europeni - iDevice.roSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Un nou val de amenințări false cu bombă a afectat zeci de zboruri și aeroporturi europene (sinteză) - AgerpresAgerpres · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Multe aeronave europene au fost nevoite să facă devieri de urgență din cauza amenințărilor cu bombă. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Неизвестные угрожали взорвать 18 европейских авиарейсов за деньInterfax Russia (RU) · 05 Nov 2026 · RU
- Între cursele aeriene vizate de amenințarea cu bombă e și un zbor Ryanair care pleca… - MediafaxMediafax · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alertă în spațiul aerian european: 15 zboruri, inclusiv unul spre București, vizate de amenințări cu bombă. E a treia zi cu astfel de incidente - PRO TV ChisinauSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- 🇪🇺 ⚡️ — A wave of bomb threats targeting passenger planes has swept across Europ…Telegram — Intel Slava Z (pro-RU OSINT EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Val de alerte de securitate în avioanele din Europa. România este printre țările vizate - ziarulromanesc.deSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Bomb threats target at least 12 more European flightsPolitico EU · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Mai multe zboruri au fost vizate joi de amenințări cu bomba. Aeronavele au fost redirecționate pe alte aeroporturi sau escortate de forțe aeriene | AUDIO - : Europa FMSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Hoax bomb threats target 2 Finnair flightsAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Alertă cu bombă pe Aeroportul Otopeni – Henri Coandă. Celulă de criză. Lista avioanelor afectate… - Economica.netSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alertă cu bombă pe Aeroportul Otopeni – Henri Coandă. Celulă de criză – Lista avioanelor… - Economica.netSurge — Google News · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alertă cu bombă la bordul unor avioane care zburau spre Italia. Ce s-a întâmplat cu… - MediafaxMediafax · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Finnair Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.