olivLaw · European equity research
ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΟΣ Α.Ε. ETE.AT
Greece · Athens Stock Exchange · ISIN GRS003003035 · Vertical: Listed companies from Greece
Εθνική Τράπεζα is one of Greece's largest banks, active in retail and corporate banking, asset management through Εθνική Asset Management and banking services in Cyprus and North Macedonia. Amid the Athens exchange rally of 2025, the bank remains a benchmark of the Greek banking sector, with international assets of around 3.4 bn EUR.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΟΣ Α.Ε. (ETE.AT) stock was 16.80 EUR (+1.20% on the day), with market capitalisation 15.2 bn EUR, P/E 13.1 on diluted EPS of 1.28 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.97%, beta 1.05, 52-week range 12.40–17.85 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 55.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 15.25 – 16.89
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 10.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 16.80 / 15.25
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.15 / -0.26
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.9% | +0.4% | −4.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.8% | −3.3% | +6.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +17.9% | +4.0% | +13.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +29.2% | +8.1% | +21.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +27.5% | +10.7% | +16.8 pp | 0.0% |
| 3 years | +199.5% | +50.1% | +149.4 pp | +33.3% |
| 5 years | +500.0% | +43.6% | +456.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 5.2, median 6.0, max 10.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.5% | −5.4% |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +4.7% | +0.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.21 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +5.0% | +0.8% |
| net % | 40.1% | 40.1% | 42.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.2 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 9.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 78.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 13.2%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 188.0 m | 186.0 m | 207.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 370.0 m | 356.0 m | 385.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.21 | 1.27 | 1.28 | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.67 | esef· 23 Oct 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 9.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.2 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 74.6 bn | 75.0 bn | 78.9 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 66.9 bn | 66.5 bn | 69.8 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.1 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 914.0 m | 911.8 m | 906.3 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -4.8 bn | -2.5 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -3.1 bn | -2.9 bn | -2.9 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 490.0 m | 793.0 m | -202.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 332.0 m | 605.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 17.0 m | 37.0 m | 142.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 15.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
23% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.08 – 17.42 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E10.60 – 17.42 (Mid 14.01)26 companies used · median multiple 10.9x · quartiles 8.3x – 13.6xAEGN.AT, AEM.AT, ALMY.AT, ASCO.AT, ASTAK.AT, AVAX.AT, BELA.AT, BIOKA.AT, BIOSK.AT, BIOT.AT, BRIQ.AT, BYLOT.AT, CENER.AT, CENTR.AT, DAIOS.AT, DIMAND.AT, EIS.AT, ELBE.AT, ELHA.AT, ELLAKTOR.AT, ELSTR.AT, ELTON.AT, EUROB.AT, EYAPS.AT, FAIS.AT, FLEXO.AT
- Dividend discount (DDM)9.08 – 12.38 (Mid 10.48)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 42.5% | 90 (vs peers) | 27% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.1x | 37 (vs peers) | 45% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.9% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial90/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial70/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial37/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΟΣ Α.Ε. (ETE.AT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.7 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -5.4%; net margin 42.5%; ROE 13.3%.
The estimated value range is 9.84–14.90 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.24 EUR, the price of 16.80 EUR leaves a potential of -27.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -37.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 42.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 4.9%
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Greece · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUROB.ATΤραπεζα Eurobank Ανωνυμη Eταιρεια | 17.3 bn | 12.7 | 14.0% | 39.7% | +2.7% | +38% / +178% |
| ETE.ATΕθνικη Τραπεζα Της Ελλαδος Α.ε. | 15.2 bn | 13.1 | 13.3% | 42.5% | −5.4% | +24% / +167% |
| ELPE.ATHelleniq Energy Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Συμμετοχων | 4.9 bn | 28.5 | 6.4% | 1.5% | −9.0% | +97% / +114% |
| CENER.ATCenergy Holdings | 4.5 bn | 23.5 | 24.3% | 9.4% | +14.7% | +45% / +207% |
| BELA.ATJumbo Ανωνυμη Εμπορικη Εταιρεια | 3.7 bn | 11.6 | 21.5% | 26.0% | +7.2% | +1% / +15% |
| AKTR.ATΑκtor Ανώνυμη Εταιρεία Συμμετοχών, Τεχνικών Και Ενεργειακών Έργων | 2.0 bn | 110.5 | 6.7% | 1.3% | +11.2% | +7% / +186% |
| EYDAP.ATΕταιρια Υδρευσεως Και Αποχετευσεως Πρωτευουσης Ανωνυμη Εταιρια | 1.5 bn | — | -2.6% | -5.9% | −2.4% | +86% / +136% |
| ELHA.ATEλβαλχαλκορ Ελληνικη Βιομηχανια Χαλκου Και Αλουμινιου Ανωνυμος Εταιρεια | 1.3 bn | 12.4 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +5.1% | +6% / +83% |
| AEGN.ATΑεροπορια Αιγαιου Ανωνυμη Αεροπορικη Εταιρεια | 1.0 bn | 6.9 | 27.7% | 7.9% | +4.6% | −21% / −1% |
| AVAX.ATΑβαξ Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Εργοληπτικη-Τουριστικη-Εμπορικη-Βιομηχανικη-Οικοδομικων Υλικων & Μηχανηματων | 505.7 m | 10.7 | 25.9% | 5.0% | +47.1% | +40% / +123% |
| BYLOT.ATBally's Intralot Α.ε. | 464.8 m | 15.3 | -9.3% | -12.6% | +34.8% | +12% / +18% |
| ELLAKTOR.ATΕλλακτωρ Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια | 421.5 m | 2.7 | 26.1% | 175.2% | −74.8% | −32% / −44% |
| AEM.ATAlter Ego Media Α.ε. | 356.1 m | 18.1 | 18.3% | 14.0% | +12.6% | −2% / unavailable |
| ALMY.ATΑλουμυλ Βιομηχανια Αλουμινιου Αε | 324.0 m | 10.5 | 23.5% | 6.0% | +11.7% | +16% / +121% |
| DIMAND.ATDimand Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Αξιοποιησης Και Εκμεταλλευσης Ακινητων Και Κατασκευων Υπηρεσιων Και Συμμετοχων | 266.7 m | 7.6 | 18.5% | 58.5% | +110.6% | +42% / +28% |
| EYAPS.ATΕταιρεια Υδρευσης & Αποχετευσης Θεσσαλονικης Α.ε. | 169.9 m | 22.0 | 4.1% | 8.8% | +2.4% | +24% / +42% |
| EVR.ATΕυρώπη Holdings Α.ε. | 168.6 m | 37.2 | 2.9% | 30.7% | +435.3% | −32% / +33% |
| BRIQ.ATBriq Properties Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Επενδυσεων Σε Ακινητη Περιουσια | 150.0 m | 5.9 | 15.5% | 116.9% | +37.8% | +13% / +70% |
| FAIS.ATΦαις Συμμετοχων Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια | 117.2 m | 8.7 | 22.1% | 6.3% | +12.9% | −6% / unavailable |
| DAIOS.ATΔαϊος Πλαστικα Ανωνυμη Βιομηχανικη Εμπορικη Εταιρεια Α.ε. | 107.2 m | 10.9 | 14.0% | 15.6% | +9.1% | 0% / +123% |
| ASTAK.ATAlpha Real Estate Services Ae | 93.3 m | 12.4 | 10.4% | 30.3% | +22.4% | −8% / −8% |
| FLEXO.ATFlexopack Ανωνυμη Εμπορικη Και Βιομηχανικη Εταιρεια Πλαστικων | 92.5 m | 8.3 | 8.3% | 6.8% | +4.6% | −2% / −2% |
| ASCO.ATA.s. Εμπορικη-Βιομηχανικη Εταιρια Η/υ & Παιχνιδιων Α.ε. | 59.8 m | 10.5 | 14.1% | 15.8% | +16.4% | +11% / +106% |
| AVE.ATAve Α.ε. | 50.9 m | — | -25.2% | -7.4% | +8.2% | −7% / −12% |
| ELTON.ATΕλτον Διεθνους Εμποριου Ανωνυμη Εμπορικη Βιομηχανικη Εταιρεια | 47.3 m | 13.9 | 4.9% | 1.9% | +8.6% | −11% / −18% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ETE.AT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.98 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 15.96 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 24.15 Total return 48% · Per year 48% |
| 3 years | 7.13 Total return -50% · Per year -21% | 14.40 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 24.15 Total return 57% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 5.66 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 13.00 Total return -6% · Per year -1% | 24.15 Total return 67% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 3.60
- Net margin± 2.52
- Annual revenue growth± 2.28
- Annual dilution± 0.21
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Εθνική Τράπεζα is one of Greece's largest banks, active in retail and corporate banking, asset management through Εθνική Asset Management and banking services in Cyprus and North Macedonia. Amid the Athens exchange rally of 2025, the bank remains a benchmark of the Greek banking sector, with international assets of around 3.4 bn EUR 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A leading position in the domestic mutual fund market through the asset management subsidiary, with a large client base 1.
- An important role on the Athens exchange, with a significant share of equity trading 1.
- An extensive branch network in Greece and capital and liquidity ratios reported at high levels 1.
Weaknesses
- The brokerage subsidiary's market share fell in 2025 compared with the prior year 1.
- International presence is small and has partly been withdrawn, with some portfolios classified as held for sale 1.
- Dependence on the Greek market exposes the bank to the performance of the local economy and banking sector 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Exposure to the Greek economymedium
The group's activity is concentrated in Greece, and a local economic slowdown could weigh on lending and asset quality 1.
- Loan portfolio qualitymedium
Portfolios held for sale, such as the one linked to the Etalia project, show that credit risk management remains an active topic 1.
- Share price volatilitymedium
The share had a wide trading range in 2025, from the year low to the year high, which signals sensitivity to the market 1.
- Withdrawal from foreign positionslow
The exit from Egypt and the reduction of international activities could limit the group's geographic diversification 1.
- Competitive pressure in brokeragelow
The lower market share of the brokerage subsidiary could persist if competitors keep gaining ground in trading 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If profitability in the Greek banking sector stays high, the bank could benefit from solid fundamentals and rising capital 1.
- As a leader in domestic mutual funds, the asset management subsidiary could grow fee income as assets under management rise 1.
- A wider foreign investor base and a consolidated exchange could support share liquidity and companies' access to funding 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the banking sector's profitability falls, the market value of the share could decline after the strong 2025 rally 1.
- Concentration in Greece could expose the group to a weak economic cycle, with effects on loan quality 1.
- A lower brokerage share and competition in asset management could limit revenue growth in these business lines 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of the brokerage subsidiary's market share and trading revenuesQ1 2027
- Completion of the Etalia loan portfolio sale and its impact on loan quality2027
- Handback of the Egyptian banking licence and effects on international assets2026
- Development of assets under management at Εθνική Asset Management and its fund market sharenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Εθνική Τράπεζα Group provides retail and corporate banking services in Greece through an extensive branch network, and manages assets and investment services through subsidiaries. According to the 2025 annual report, international activities represent 4.3% of total Group assets 1. Risk management is organised on a three lines of defence model under board oversight 1.
Through Εθνική Asset Management ΑΕΔΑΚ, a 100% subsidiary, the bank manages mutual funds and mandate portfolios for private and institutional clients. Assets under management reached 6.2 bn EUR at 31 December 2025, with a 16.8% share of the domestic mutual fund market 1. The company serves more than 88,000 clients, 60 of them institutional investors 1.
International presence is limited and centres on banking subsidiaries in North Macedonia and Cyprus, while the Egyptian branch has transferred its client base and is in the process of handing back its banking licence in 2026 1. At year end 2025, gross loans to customers outside Greece stood at 2.0 bn EUR and deposits at 2.6 bn EUR 1.
Segments
Εθνική Asset Management (asset management)
The subsidiary manages 56 mutual funds, nine of them in Luxembourg, as well as mandate portfolios for private and institutional clients. Fixed-term funds aimed at capital protection are a recent development focus 1.
Εθνική Factors and Εθνική Leasing (specialised financing)
The factoring and leasing subsidiaries complement the financing offer for businesses and are consolidated in the group. During 2025 part of the loan portfolio was classified as held for sale under the Etalia project 1.
Market context
The Greek banking market benefited in 2025 from improved profitability and high capital and liquidity ratios, and the Athens banking sector index rose 78.4% 1. The general index gained 44.3%, and average daily trading value reached 219 mn EUR, versus 140 mn EUR in 2024 1. The ETE market capitalisation stood at 11.9 bn EUR at year end 2025 1.
Rising foreign investor positions in Greek equities and the proposed takeover of Ελληνικά Χρηματιστήρια by Euronext could widen the investor base of the local market 1. For the bank, this could ease access to capital market funding for Greek companies 1.
Trends
- Growing international investor interest in Greek equitiestailwind
Rising positions of foreign institutional investors in Greek stocks supported bank shares listed in Athens. If this interest persists, it could support liquidity and traded values on the exchange 1.
- Consolidation of exchange infrastructuretailwind
Euronext's proposal to take over Ελληνικά Χρηματιστήρια could widen the investor base and the number of funding opportunities for Greek firms 1. The effect for banks depends on how the capital market develops 1.
- Divestments and reduced international exposuremixed
The bank classified loan portfolios as held for sale and announced its exit from Egypt through a client transfer and licence handback. Reducing foreign exposure could limit risks, but also growth potential outside Greece 1.
Competitive position
In asset management, Εθνική Asset Management competes with other fund managers in Greece and in international markets, and its stated aim is more attractive returns than rivals 1. Its 16.8% share of the domestic mutual fund market shows a leading local position 1.
- Alpha Bank
Greek bank listed in Athens, a direct competitor in the domestic banking market and in exchange trading 1.
- Eurobank
Greek bank listed in Athens, active in retail and corporate banking and competing in the domestic market 1.
- Piraeus Bank
Greek bank listed in Athens with comparable positions in the domestic banking sector 1.
- Euronext group
The operator that proposed taking over Ελληνικά Χρηματιστήρια, which could change the structure of the Greek capital market 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202523 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΟΣ Α.Ε. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.