olivLaw · European equity research
VERBUND AG VER.VI
Austria · Wiener Börse · ISIN AT0000746409 · Vertical: Listed companies from Austria
VERBUND AG is Austria's largest producer of electricity, active in hydropower, wind, solar, thermal plants, grids and sales to end customers and traders. In 2025 revenue declined to 8013.6 million euros, and pressure on earnings came mainly from weaker hydro output due to drought and from windfall-profit taxes.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, VERBUND AG (VER.VI) stock was 75.35 EUR (+8.57% on the day), with market capitalisation 26.2 bn EUR, P/E 17.6 on diluted EPS of 4.29 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.08%, beta 0.08, 52-week range 54.75–75.35 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 80.0
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 62.83 – 72.72
- above the upper band · %B 1.27 · band width 14.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 64.06 / 61.34
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.18 / 1.78
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +18.8% | +0.4% | +18.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +28.7% | −3.3% | +32.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +25.7% | +4.0% | +21.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.5% | +8.1% | +13.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.2% | +10.7% | +0.5 pp | +5.3% |
| 3 years | −11.8% | +50.1% | −61.9 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | −13.3% | +43.6% | −56.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 13.0, median 13.7, max 14.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.2 bn | 8.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −2.8% |
| Net income | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −20.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.40 | 4.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −20.6% |
| net % | 22.7% | 18.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 72.8 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.8 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.7 bn EUR
- Equity
- 11.3 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 18.6 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.16x
- Current ratio
- 0.98x
- ROE
- 13.3%
- ROA
- 8.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.2 bn | 8.0 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.7 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 577.8 m | 625.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.3 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 2.8 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 638.5 m | 422.7 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.40 | 4.29 | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.57 | 3.83 | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 795.1 m | 72.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 94.3 m | 75.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.5 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 13.1 bn | 13.8 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 18.7 bn | 18.6 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.1 bn | 11.3 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 347.3 m | 347.2 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 26.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.85 – 95.42 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA24.85 – 43.18 (Mid 30.14)5 companies used · median multiple 4.4x · quartiles 3.8x – 6.1xETS.VI, FAA.VI, FKA.VI, PYT.VI, SEM.VI
- Peers: P/E49.09 – 95.42 (Mid 71.79)24 companies used · median multiple 16.7x · quartiles 11.4x – 22.2x1AST.VI, ACAG.VI, AMAG.VI, ANDR.VI, BMAG.VI, CPI.VI, DOC.VI, ETS.VI, EVN.VI, FAA.VI, FACC.VI, FQT.VI, MMK.VI, OMV.VI, POS.VI, POST.VI, PYT.VI, ROS.VI, SBO.VI, STR.VI, SWUT.VI, TKA.VI, VOE.VI, WIE.VI
- Dividend discount (DDM)52.08 – 71.01 (Mid 60.09)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.3% | 70 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 18.6% | 92 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 50 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.6x | 42 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.2x | 0 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.1% | 73 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial73/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation21/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
VERBUND AG (VER.VI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.0 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -2.8%; net margin 18.6%; ROE 14.7%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 49.09–71.01 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 60.09 EUR, the price of 75.35 EUR leaves a potential of -20.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -25.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 13.3%
- Net margin: 18.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.1%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 10.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Austria · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMV.VIOmv Aktiengesellschaft | 35.6 bn | 23.4 | 8.9% | 6.3% | −7.2% | +53% / +86% |
| VER.VIVerbund AG | 26.2 bn | 17.6 | 14.7% | 18.6% | −2.8% | +19% / −14% |
| STR.VIStrabag Se | 11.7 bn | 12.8 | 17.2% | 4.9% | +7.4% | +32% / +168% |
| ANDR.VIAndritz AG | 8.1 bn | 17.7 | 19.3% | 5.8% | −5.2% | +33% / +66% |
| VOE.VIvoestalpine AG | 7.1 bn | 17.0 | 5.7% | 2.8% | −4.3% | +12% / +61% |
| EVN.VIEvn AG | 5.5 bn | 12.5 | 6.9% | 14.6% | +3.8% | +15% / +14% |
| ATS.VIAT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft | 2.5 bn | — | -2.4% | -1.4% | +12.7% | +238% / +346% |
| DOC.VIDO & CO Aktiengesellschaft | 2.4 bn | 22.2 | 24.0% | 4.3% | +7.1% | +12% / +70% |
| CPI.VICPI Europe AG | 2.2 bn | 4.2 | 12.2% | 68.2% | −6.7% | +1% / −17% |
| POST.VIÖsterreichische Post Aktiengesellschaft | 2.2 bn | 16.4 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.6% | +6% / +2% |
| WIE.VIWienerberger AG | 1.9 bn | 11.7 | 5.9% | 3.6% | +1.2% | −40% / −32% |
| LNZ.VILenzing Aktiengesellschaft | 1.8 bn | — | -11.8% | -5.2% | −2.3% | −48% / −65% |
| MMK.VIMayr-Melnhof Karton Aktiengesellschaft | 1.3 bn | 17.1 | 3.6% | 1.9% | −4.8% | −21% / −41% |
| POS.VIPorr AG | 1.2 bn | 10.7 | 12.9% | 1.8% | +1.7% | +6% / +167% |
| AMAG.VIAMAG Austria Metall AG | 1.1 bn | 33.4 | 4.7% | 2.3% | +2.1% | +34% / +19% |
| BMAG.VIPIERER Mobility AG | 1.1 bn | 1.8 | 638.9% | 58.9% | −46.3% | +85% / −47% |
| FQT.VIFrequentis AG | 790.7 m | 28.1 | 15.5% | 4.9% | +20.8% | −14% / +111% |
| ETS.VIEuroTeleSites AG | 745.4 m | 22.3 | 8.8% | 11.9% | +3.7% | −6% / +34% |
| AGR.VIAGRANA Beteiligungs-Aktiengesellschaft | 722.9 m | — | -3.6% | -1.2% | −7.9% | −3% / −15% |
| FACC.VIFacc AG | 602.4 m | 28.4 | 9.1% | 2.2% | +11.3% | +22% / +127% |
| ROS.VIRosenbauer International AG | 591.1 m | 11.9 | 17.4% | 3.5% | +9.4% | +35% / +104% |
| 1AST.VIASTA Energy Solutions AG | 467.7 m | 15.5 | 42.3% | 4.3% | +8.3% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SBO.VISbo AG | 456.6 m | 19.4 | 5.2% | 5.2% | −18.8% | +5% / −30% |
| SEM.VISemperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding | 379.1 m | 902.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | −2.1% | +39% / +28% |
| ACAG.VIAustriacard Holdings AG | 347.8 m | 25.6 | 11.4% | 4.1% | −8.2% | +76% / +65% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VER.VI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 41.27 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 73.24 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 110.70 Total return 53% · Per year 53% |
| 3 years | 34.39 Total return -44% · Per year -18% | 69.19 Total return 6% · Per year 2% | 115.62 Total return 72% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 28.66 Total return -46% · Per year -12% | 65.37 Total return 10% · Per year 2% | 120.76 Total return 91% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 17.30
- Net margin± 12.11
- Annual revenue growth± 10.69
- Annual dilution± 1.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
VERBUND AG is Austria's largest producer of electricity, active in hydropower, wind, solar, thermal plants, grids and sales to end customers and traders. In 2025 revenue declined to 8013.6 million euros 1, and pressure on earnings came mainly from weaker hydro output due to drought and from windfall-profit taxes.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong position in hydropower, with a reliable long-term production base and regulated grids in Austria.
- Solid balance sheet and controlled net debt level, which supports the funding of investments.
- Diversified portfolio across generation, grids and sales to end customers and traders.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on hydrological conditions makes results volatile from one year to the next.
- The new renewables coefficient stayed below plan, which shows limits in wind and solar output.
- Expenses linked to windfall-profit taxes reduced net results in a difficult year.
Opportunities
- Investments in wind and solar, especially in Spain and Germany, could expand the production base.
- Growing demand for flexibility and storage could bring additional revenue.
- If the Austrian economy continues to recover, energy demand could support sales.
Threats
- Prolonged droughts could again reduce hydro output and related revenue.
- Regulatory interventions, including windfall-profit taxes, could affect results.
- Geopolitical tensions and gas price volatility could cause shocks in energy markets.
Risks
- Hydro volume riskhigh
Hydro output depends on river flows, and options to offset weak years with annual storage plants are limited. A prolonged drought could again affect results.
- Price riskhigh
The gap between projected and realised prices can affect revenue. Long-term contracts and pricing strategy reduce exposure but do not eliminate it.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Changes in legislation or tax rules, including windfall-profit taxes, could reduce revenue in some segments.
- Impairment riskmedium
Changes in electricity price forecasts and cost of capital could lead to asset write-downs, as happened for projects in Spain.
- Counterparty and rating risklow
Non-payment by business partners or a change in credit rating could raise financing costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the hydrological cycle returns to normal and prices stay high, output and margins could recover. The dominant position in hydropower and regulated grids provides a stable base.
- Planned investments in renewables and grids could expand capacity and revenue over the medium term, if projects are delivered on time.
- The dividend policy, combined with a controlled balance sheet, could support shareholder returns even in a weak year.
What would break the thesis
- If droughts recur, hydro output and revenue could fall again, directly affecting group results.
- Windfall-profit taxes and other regulatory measures could limit gains in periods of high prices.
- The new renewables coefficient below plan suggests that growth in wind and solar could be slower than expected.
What to watch
- Hydro output and run-of-river hydro coefficientQ1 2027
- Development of the windfall-profit tax regime in Austria2027
- Progress of the 2026–2028 investment plan in wind and solarnext 10-K
- Actual results compared with the 2026 guidanceQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group also owns transmission and distribution grids through Austrian Power Grid AG, as well as gas and district heating activities. Grid revenue rose in 2025 on higher tariffs and cross-border capacity revenues, though part of this excess will be skimmed off through regulation 1. The group thus combines regulated activities with relatively stable revenue and market activities that are more exposed to volatility.
On financing, VERBUND kept net debt/EBITDA below its target of 3.0, at 1.0 on 31 December 2025 1. The company proposed a total dividend of 3.15 euro per share for financial year 2025 1, combining a regular and a special dividend.
Segments
Hydro
The Hydro segment is the most important part of group generation. In 2025 hydro output fell by 24.2% to 25370 GWh 1, due to drought and a hydro coefficient below the long-term average. The average sales price for own hydropower remained at 116.3 euro/MWh 1, which limited the impact of lower volumes.
Grid
The Grid segment generated higher revenue in 2025 on higher tariffs and transport volumes at higher voltage levels, while cross-border capacity revenues were above the prior year 1. These revenues are partly redistributed through regulatory mechanisms, which limits long-term gains.
Market context
The electricity markets of Austria and Germany are VERBUND's main markets, with Austria accounting for about 50% of electricity sold in 2025 1 and Germany for about 83% of volumes sold abroad 1. Wholesale prices were lower in 2025 than the year before, while concerns about gas supply security in Europe remained. Price developments depend on weather conditions and geopolitical tensions.
The Austrian economy returned to slight growth in 2025 after two years of recession, and the WIFO institute expects growth of 1.1% in 2026, which could support energy demand 1. Restrictive fiscal policy and weak international demand for capital goods remain pressure factors.
Trends
- Drought and lower hydro outputheadwind
Weak hydrological conditions in 2025 reduced hydro output and lowered revenue from electricity sales. If rainfall and river flows return to average levels, output could improve.
- Transition to renewablesmixed
Investments in wind and solar, especially in Spain and Germany, could expand own capacity. On the other hand, the new renewables coefficient was below plan in 2025, showing that results are not yet stable.
- Windfall-profit regulationheadwind
Windfall-profit taxes in Austria, Spain and Romania generated expenses in 2025 and could continue to weigh on results if the tax regime remains in place.
- Demand for flexibilitytailwind
Flexibility products such as congestion management and battery storage could add revenue. Their contribution stayed at the prior-year level, which shows that the potential is still limited for now.
Competitive position
VERBUND competes with other electricity producers and suppliers in Austria and Central Europe, both in wholesale markets and for end customers. Competition depends on production costs, access to grid capacity and the ability to manage price volatility.
In grids and new renewables, competition comes from regional operators and investors in wind and solar projects. VERBUND's advantage lies in its strong positions in hydropower and Austrian grids, which provide long-term stability.
- Energie Steiermark
Regional energy supplier in Austria, active in generation and sales to end customers.
- EVN AG
Austrian utility company with activities in generation, grids and energy supply.
- Iberdrola
Energy group active in European markets, including wind power and grids.
- Enel
Italian energy group with renewable generation and distribution operations in several European countries.
News & filings
In the press
- Albania, Verbund seal deal to build Spille wind farm – country’s firstBalkan Green Energy News (EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Bursă. Acţiunile Hidroelectrica s-au dublat în trei ani de la listare, dar Verbund, cea mai apropiată companie comparabilă din Europa, a pierdut 20% în acest interval. De ce?Ziarul Financiar · 22 Jul 2026 · RO
- Bursă. Swiss Capital vede acţiunile Hidroelectrica supraevaluate faţă de Verbund pe multiplul EV/EBITDA şi dă un preţ ţintă dur, cu 40% sub cotaţia actuală. Proiectele de investiţii ale Hidroelectrica trebuie să prindă viaţăZiarul Financiar · 17 Jul 2026 · RO
- Swiss Capital vede acţiunile Hidroelectrica supraevaluate faţă de Verbund pe multiplul EV/EBITDA şi dă un preţ ţintă dur. Proiectele de investiţii ale Hidroelectrica trebuie să prind viaţăZiarul Financiar · 16 Jul 2026 · RO
- Bursă. Hidroelectrica a numit un nou CEO şi CFO fără CV-uri, fotografii sau explicaţii pentru investitori. Cum anunţă schimbările de conducere la companii din afară precum Verbund, Engie, Orlen sau Shell. Vorbim despre o companie unde viitorii pensionari ai României controlează indirect, prin fondurile de pensii private Pilon 2, aproximativ 12% din acţiuniZiarul Financiar · 11 Jun 2026 · RO
- Bursă. Hidroelectrica a numit un nou CEO şi CFO fără CV-uri, fotografii sau explicaţii pentru investitori. Cum anunţă schimbările de conducere la companii din afară precum Verbund, Engie, Orlen sau ShellZiarul Financiar · 11 Jun 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / VERBUND AG · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.