olivLaw · European equity research
Ageas SA/NV AGS.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · ISIN BE0974264930 · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
Ageas is an international insurance group that protects clients against unwanted events and invests in the economy, with ambitious targets tied to the transition to a more sustainable future. Its Impact24 strategy sets a goal of 25% of gross written premiums from products supporting this transition. The company has also committed to invest at least 10 billion EUR in assets with a positive impact by 2024.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ageas SA/NV (AGS.BR) stock was 78.50 EUR (+0.51% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.4 k EUR, P/E 14.3 on diluted EPS of 5.48 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.56, 52-week range 56.35–78.50 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 71.42 – 78.00
- above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 8.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 74.67 / 68.62
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.90 / 0.47
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.8% | +0.4% | +6.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.8% | −3.3% | +9.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +16.6% | +4.0% | +12.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.3% | +8.1% | +23.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +35.6% | +10.7% | +24.9 pp | +6.3% |
| 3 years | +111.2% | +50.1% | +61.2 pp | −6.5% |
| 5 years | +83.9% | +43.6% | +40.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 7.6, median 8.8, max 10.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.8 k | 10.4 k |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −24.6% |
| Net income | 845 | 1.0 k |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +19.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.52 | 5.48 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +21.2% |
| net % | 6.1% | 9.7% |
| Free cash flow | -1.1 k | -684 |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 1.2 k EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 8.6 k EUR
- Total assets
- 100.3 k EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 8.9%
- ROA
- 1.0%
- FCF margin
- -6.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.8 k | 10.4 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 138 | 187 | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.2 k | 1.5 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Income tax | 215 | 229 | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Net income | 845 | 1.0 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.52 | 5.48 | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.9 k | 1.2 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.7 k | 2.2 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Total assets | 111.1 k | 100.3 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 97.0 k | 91.7 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Equity | 14.2 k | 8.6 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 187 | 184 | esef· 18 Apr 2023derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -1.1 k | -588 | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Capex | 50 | 96 | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.1 k ≈ | -684 ≈ | esef· 18 Apr 2023derived |
| Investing cash flow | 1.4 k | 1.0 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | -684 | -1.1 k | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
| Share repurchases | 56 | 91 | esef· 18 Apr 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 14.4 k EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 56.40 – 129.46 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E56.40 – 129.46 (Mid 84.30)24 companies used · median multiple 15.4x · quartiles 10.3x – 23.6xACKB.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, BPOST.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, ELI.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR, MOUR.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.7% | 77 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -67.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.3x | 59 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -4.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.6% | 9 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality38/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial9/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation33/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AGEAS SA/NV (AGS.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 10.4 k EUR in 2022; YoY growth -24.6%; net margin 9.7%; ROE 10.4%.
The estimated value range is 56.40–129.46 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 84.30 EUR, the price of 78.50 EUR leaves a potential of 7.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 6.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 9.7%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -67.7%
- FCF yield: -4.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.6%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELI.BRElia Group | 11.9 bn | 23.3 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +28% / +34% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.4 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.7 bn | 23.2 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +22% / +16% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.2 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.6 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +12% / −6% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.2 bn | 12.2 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +21% / +72% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 16.1 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +29% / −42% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.1 bn | 12.4 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | −1% / −38% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.1 bn | 30.7 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +10% / −5% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.2 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +15% / +40% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.4 bn | 33.9 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +62% / +11% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 706.9 m | 17.2 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +111% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 563.5 m | 9.1 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −48% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 487.2 m | 39.5 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +48% / +52% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 341.3 m | 24.6 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +8% / +8% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 272.3 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +161% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 266.8 m | 11.1 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +22% / +48% |
| MOUR.BRMoury Construct | 261.2 m | 10.7 | 21.3% | 13.1% | −4.0% | +11% / +76% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 245.9 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 229.8 m | 3.5 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −39% / −75% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 210.7 m | 40.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −1% / −36% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 171.0 m | 162.0 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −5% / −17% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AGS.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 42.08 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 74.77 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 113.14 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 33.41 Total return -57% · Per year -25% | 67.48 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 113.14 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 26.53 Total return -66% · Per year -20% | 60.90 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 113.14 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 16.87
- Net margin± 11.81
- Annual revenue growth± 10.67
- Annual dilution± 0.99
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ageas is an international insurance group that protects clients against unwanted events and invests in the economy, with ambitious targets tied to the transition to a more sustainable future. Its Impact24 strategy sets a goal of 25% of gross written premiums from products supporting this transition 1. The company has also committed to invest at least 10 billion EUR in assets with a positive impact by 2024 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Formalised sustainability commitment, with an Impact24 strategy and a well-documented policy framework.
- Solid compliance and governance framework, with direct reporting to executive management and the board.
- International group position that allows diversification of products and markets.
Weaknesses
- Many taxonomy reporting data points are based on estimates, which limits the precision of the information.
- Reliance on evolving reporting standards could make it harder to compare performance over time.
- Data integration and information security processes require ongoing investment.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for insurance and investment products with a positive environmental and social impact.
- Development of offerings such as repair instead of replacement, which may attract sustainability-minded clients.
- Use of data for innovation and personalised offers, provided information is managed properly.
Threats
- Changes to the European regulatory framework could raise compliance costs.
- Climate events and other catastrophes could affect technical results in non-life insurance.
- Cybersecurity risks and personal data breaches could cause financial and reputational losses.
Risks
- Quality of reporting datamedium
Taxonomy and emissions data are partly estimated and reporting requirements are changing, which could affect the comparability of information.
- Regulatory changesmedium
New European sustainability requirements could force adjustments to products and internal processes.
- Personal data securityhigh
Managing a large volume of sensitive data carries the risk of security incidents or non-compliance with the GDPR.
- Climate risk in insurancemedium
Extreme weather events could raise claims costs, particularly in non-life insurance.
- Reputational risklow
Any gap between sustainability commitments and actual practice could affect the trust of clients and investors.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Impact24 strategy is delivered, the company could hold a strong position in the transition to sustainable products and green investments.
- The international group structure and solid governance framework can support long-term operational stability.
- Joining international initiatives such as the Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance could strengthen credibility with ESG-focused investors.
What would break the thesis
- If reporting data remains partly estimated, the comparability of sustainability performance could stay limited.
- Compliance costs under new European rules could rise and compress margins in the short term.
- Exposure to climate events and cyber incidents could generate unexpected losses in certain periods.
What to watch
- Progress toward the target of 25% of gross written premiums from products supporting the transition2024
- Delivery of the commitment to invest at least 10 billion EUR in assets with a positive impact2024
- Evolution of European taxonomy reporting requirements and data qualitynext 10-K
- Interim pathway for reducing emissions in the investment portfolio2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ageas describes itself in its annual report as a global insurer whose mission is to protect clients from unwanted events so they can live, save and invest with confidence 1. Its activities cover both non-life insurance and products linked to investment and savings. The company pursues a client-oriented development with a focus on a good service experience.
Beyond its insurance business, Ageas defines a social role, reflected in the Impact24 strategy and in its commitments on ethics and integrity. The group states that a successful organisation needs a solid foundation of good behaviour and the support of society 1. These principles are formalised in a policy framework applicable to all group entities.
In 2022 Ageas joined the UN-backed Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance, aiming for an investment portfolio with net zero emissions by 2050 1. To track progress, the company set an interim pathway for reducing CO2 emissions.
Segments
Non-life insurance
The non-life segment includes property and liability insurance, where the company promotes options such as repair instead of replacement, which supports the circular economy. The report also describes product policies that include ESG criteria from the design phase 1. Reinsurance in this segment is, for now, largely internal to the group.
Life and investment insurance
Investment-based insurance products are subject to the European SFDR regulation on sustainability disclosure, applicable since March 2021 for the relevant entities 1. Ageas applies to investment management an approach based on excluding controversial activities, integrating ESG factors and exercising voting rights.
Market context
Ageas operates as an international insurance group with a significant presence in Europe, where the sustainability regulatory framework is gradually strengthening. The report notes that European reporting requirements, including the taxonomy, are still being clarified and that available data is partly based on estimates 1. The market is therefore shaped by the evolution of reporting standards.
Demand for insurance products that support the green transition and client resilience could grow as society adapts its behaviour. The company mentions initiatives such as 'minder rijden', which encourages less car use 1.
Trends
- Sustainability regulationmixed
European ESG reporting and taxonomy requirements are becoming stricter, which could raise compliance costs but also recognition of sustainable products.
- Transition to a low-emission economytailwind
Decarbonisation targets for the investment portfolio could open green financing opportunities if the transition accelerates.
- Uncertainty in reporting dataheadwind
Availability and quality of data for taxonomy reporting remain limited, and requirements may change in coming years, which could complicate reporting.
- Digitalisation and data protectionmixed
Growing volumes of personal data increase both their value for innovation and the risk of security and compliance failures.
Competitive position
Ageas competes with other large European and international insurers in non-life, life and savings markets. The annual report does not detail the company's competitive position against these peers, so the assessment rests on the general sector context.
Differentiation may come from service quality for clients, product transparency and the integration of sustainability criteria, themes the group places explicitly in its strategy.
- AXA
Large European insurer with comparable activity in non-life and life insurance.
- Allianz
German insurance and asset management group, a competitor in several European markets.
- Generali
Italian insurer with international operations in life and non-life insurance.
- NN Group
European life insurance and pensions group, a competitor in the savings segment.
News & filings
In the press
- Malaysia’s Top Bank Is Said to Near Buying Ageas Stake in EtiqaBloomberg Markets · 03 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202218 Apr 2023
- Annual report 202218 Apr 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ageas SA/NV · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.