olivLaw · European equity research
ARGAN ARG.PA
France · Euronext Paris · Vertical: Listed companies from France
ARGAN is a French real estate company that develops and leases long-term logistics warehouses to business tenants, with 2025 revenue of 212 M EUR and occupancy close to 99 percent. Its focus now is the refinancing of a 500 M EUR bond maturing in November 2026.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ARGAN (ARG.PA) stock was 68.00 EUR (+0.29% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.7 bn EUR, P/E 7.1 on diluted EPS of 9.56 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.75%, beta 0.57, 52-week range 56.40–77.40 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 66.59 – 68.45
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.76 · band width 2.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 69.46 / 65.59
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.44 / -0.64
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.4% | −0.6% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.6% | −4.2% | −4.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.0% | +4.3% | +5.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.0% | +7.5% | −4.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.8% | +9.9% | −8.1 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | −0.4% | +49.8% | −50.3 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | −38.0% | +42.8% | −80.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 6.1, median 6.5, max 6.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -263.4 m | 245.7 m | 245.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −0.2% |
| Diluted EPS | -11.43 | 9.96 | 9.56 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −4.0% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 186.2 m | 173.5 m | 198.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 27.2 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.1 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.1 bn EUR
- Equity
- 2.4 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 4.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.45x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 10.4%
- ROA
- 5.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -201.2 m | 302.2 m | 290.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -263.4 m | 245.7 m | 245.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -11.43 | 9.96 | 9.56 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.67 | 2.13 | 2.55 | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 52.0 m | 85.7 m | 27.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 55.6 m | 55.6 m | 55.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.0 k | 0 | 31.0 k | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.1 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 23.0 m | 24.7 m | 25.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 186.3 m | 173.7 m | 199.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 136.0 k | 161.0 k | 202.0 k | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 186.2 m ≈ | 173.5 m ≈ | 198.8 m ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -161.2 m | -34.8 m | -74.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -142.5 m | -105.2 m | -182.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 61.6 m | 52.5 m | 65.4 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.7 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.70 – 281.93 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E109.84 – 281.93 (Mid 170.14)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)34.70 – 47.32 (Mid 40.04)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.5% | 45 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 81.1% | 73 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.1x | 88 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.8% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 32.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns72/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ARGAN (ARG.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 10.6%.
The estimated value range is 72.27–164.62 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 105.09 EUR, the price of 68.00 EUR leaves a potential of 54.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 35.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 81.1%
- P/E (TTM): 7.1x
- FCF yield: 11.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 32.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ARG.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ARGAN is a French real estate company that develops and leases long-term logistics warehouses to business tenants, with 2025 revenue of 212 M EUR 1 and occupancy close to 99 percent. Its focus now is the refinancing of a 500 M EUR bond maturing in November 2026 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Portfolio almost fully occupied, with pre-let contracts and high rental income profitability.
- Stable shareholder base, with the founding family involved in strategy and management.
- Strengthened liquidity through expanded revolving credit lines and an available bridge financing.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a relatively small number of key executives, which raises the risk of difficult succession.
- Activity concentrated almost exclusively in the French market, which limits geographic diversification.
- Need to refinance a major bond in 2026 at a cost probably higher than the current one.
Opportunities
- Demand for small and medium warehouses from regional companies and parcel operators.
- Reconversion of former industrial sites and development of AutOnom green energy projects.
- Existing land reserve, which could support growth over several years if conditions remain favourable.
Threats
- Land use restrictions that could limit the volume of new projects.
- An economic recession could reduce demand for logistics space and pressure rents.
- Costs of climate adaptation and energy compliance could rise if regulation tightens.
Risks
- Refinancing of the 2026 bondmedium
If refinancing does not take place in the desired market window, the cost of debt could rise significantly and weigh on profitability. The company has set up bridge financing to reduce this risk.
- Dependence on key tenantsmedium
If one of the major clients does not renew its lease, re-letting the building could take time and reduce income.
- Restrictions on land accessmedium
Restrictive planning rules could slow or stop new development projects.
- Physical climate riskslow
Extreme weather or clay soils could cause structural damage to some buildings, with additional repair costs.
- Dependence on key managementmedium
Departure or unavailability of main executives could negatively affect strategy and ongoing projects.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for mid-sized warehouses keeps growing, the almost fully let portfolio could generate predictable and rising rental income.
- If refinancing is completed on acceptable terms, the cost of debt could stay under control and support margins.
- The land reserve and AutOnom energy projects could provide additional long-term growth sources.
What would break the thesis
- If the 2026 refinancing is done at a much higher coupon, profitability could fall from current levels.
- A recession could lead to fewer new leases and lower rents, weighing on revenue growth.
- Concentration on the French market and dependence on a few executives could make the company vulnerable to local shocks.
What to watch
- Outcome of the refinancing of the 500 M EUR bond and final coupon2026
- Evolution of the EPRA LTV ratio and average cost of debtend 2026
- Reaching the rental revenue target of 220 M EURend 2026
- Pace of new leases and the level of portfolio occupancynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
ARGAN develops, owns and manages logistics warehouses leased to clients, mainly companies in industry and distribution. Its model relies on warehouses developed almost entirely pre-let, which provides predictable rental income 1. According to the 2025 annual report, recurring net income averages around 70 percent of rental revenues over the long term, and was 73 percent in 2025 1.
The growth strategy combines developing new platforms with active portfolio management. Rental revenues rose by 13.7 M EUR between 2024 and 2025, and the target for end 2026 is 220 M EUR 1. The company also aims to strengthen liquidity and keep debt at a controlled level.
The LE LAN family, through the holding Kerlan SAS, holds 36.5 percent of capital and voting rights, which supports governance stability and long-term alignment of interests 1. Activity is carried out almost exclusively in France.
Segments
Premium logistics warehouses
Buildings are designed to tenant requirements, with high technical and environmental standards, and are located in sought-after areas. The average remaining firm lease term is 5.0 years, and about 30 percent of leases have more than 6 years remaining 1.
AutOnom projects and solar energy
AutOnom warehouses generate solar power on the roof and store it in batteries for self-consumption. The company has also extended photovoltaic canopies, and these projects respond to the Climate and Resilience law 1.
Development and land reserve
ARGAN holds a buildable land reserve of about 750,000 m2 in France, sufficient to support growth for at least five years 1. Activity also includes reconversion of former industrial sites.
Market context
ARGAN operates in the French logistics property market, where access to land is increasingly restricted by rules such as Zero Artificialisation Nette and pressure from other economic activities 1. The report notes sustained demand for small and medium warehouses, especially from mid-sized companies with regional presence 1.
Stabilising interest rates, with a cost of debt of 2.10 percent at end 2025 versus 2.25 percent at end 2024, create a more favourable financing context 1. If the bond refinancing takes place at an average coupon of about 3.5 percent, the average cost of debt could rise toward about 3 percent by end 2026 1.
Trends
- Demand for mid-sized logistics spacetailwind
Regional companies and parcel operators increasingly seek small and medium warehouses, which could open new opportunities for the ARGAN portfolio 1.
- Restrictions on land accessheadwind
Rules such as Zero Artificialisation Nette and competition from other activities could limit the number of new projects and raise development costs 1.
- Stabilising interest ratesmixed
Lower cost of debt in 2025 supports margins, but the 2026 refinancing could reflect market conditions more expensive than the old coupon 1.
- Energy and environmental regulationmixed
The Climate and Resilience law and the BACS decree require solarisation and energy efficiency for new and existing buildings, which could raise costs but also encourage green energy investment 1.
Competitive position
The French logistics market is competitive, with several developers and investors competing for the same land and tenants. The report indicates that during difficult economic cycles new entrants or concentration among strong players could emerge, which could reduce rental returns 1.
ARGAN differentiates its offer through the premium quality of its buildings, long-term relationships with clients and the ability to deliver turnkey projects with pre-letting. The company does not depend on a single supplier, as the construction market offers many options 1.
- French listed logistics developers
Companies that develop and lease warehouses in France and compete for similar land and tenants.
- European logistics real estate funds
Institutional investors that acquire logistics portfolios and may compete for transactions of existing assets.
- Regional logistics park developers
Local or regional operators competing on small and mid-sized projects.
- General contractors of warehouses
Suppliers of turnkey projects that could become direct competitors in asset development.
News & filings
In the press
- Argan’s (AGX) Power Boom Comes With A Margin CatchYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Why Argan Stock Swooned by Almost 8% TodayYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Freedom Broker Turns Bullish on Argan (AGX) After Record QuarterYahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
- Why Argan Stock Just PoppedYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Argan Q2 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- 10 mai - Ziua internațională a arborelui de arganAgerpres · 10 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ARGAN · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.