olivLaw · European equity research
Archicom Spółka Akcyjna ARH.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLARHCM00016 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Archicom is a Polish property developer focused almost entirely on residential projects in Wroclaw. In 2022 the company changed the timing of revenue recognition on apartment sales, which materially restated comparatives, and its outlook now depends on demand that is sensitive to high mortgage rates.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Archicom Spółka Akcyjna (ARH.WA) stock was 52.00 PLN (+1.96% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn PLN, P/E 12.1 on diluted EPS of 4.29 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.10%, beta 0.39, 52-week range 43.10–56.40 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 47.77 – 51.47
- above the upper band · %B 1.14 · band width 7.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 50.09 / 50.43
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.14 / -0.13
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.8% | +0.4% | +6.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.8% | −3.3% | +2.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −4.4% | +4.0% | −8.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.8% | +8.1% | +7.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.2% | +10.7% | −0.5 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | +113.1% | +50.1% | +63.0 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | +127.1% | +43.6% | +83.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 4.1, median 4.2, max 4.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 669.9 m | 637.7 m | 499.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −4.8% | −21.6% |
| Net income | 132.8 m | 126.0 m | 110.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −5.2% | −12.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.18 | 4.91 | 4.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −5.2% | −12.6% |
| net % | 19.8% | 19.8% | 22.1% |
| Free cash flow | -1.6 m | 250.6 m | 78.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 264.4 m PLN
- Financial debt
- 110.0 m PLN
- Net debt
- -154.4 m PLN
- Equity
- 731.7 m PLN
- Total assets
- 1.3 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- 0.15x
- Current ratio
- 2.93x
- ROE
- 15.9%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- FCF margin
- 15.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 669.9 m | 637.7 m | 499.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Cost of revenue | 466.1 m | 417.3 m | 320.5 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 203.8 m | 220.5 m | 179.2 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Operating income | 190.7 m | 164.3 m | 115.3 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 15.7 m | 5.5 m | 9.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 178.2 m | 164.9 m | 138.5 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Income tax | 43.0 m | 38.1 m | 24.6 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Net income | 132.8 m | 126.0 m | 110.2 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.18 | 4.91 | 4.29 | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.53 | 2.42 | 1.09 | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 174.1 m | 264.1 m | 264.4 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Receivables | 28.5 m | 92.1 m | 130.3 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Inventories | 953.4 m | 639.5 m | 645.8 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 16.2 m | 12.3 m | 11.0 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 165.0 k | 165.0 k | 165.0 k | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.6 m | 1.4 m | 4.5 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 301.7 m | 80.9 m | 110.0 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 441.5 m | 512.0 m | 419.3 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 826.9 m | 660.8 m | 595.2 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Equity | 621.7 m | 653.1 m | 731.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 25.6 m | 25.7 m | 25.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.8 m | 251.2 m | 79.7 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Capex | 6.3 m | 616.0 k | 792.0 k | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.6 m ≈ | 250.6 m ≈ | 78.9 m ≈ | esef· 02 May 2023derived |
| Investing cash flow | 102.0 m | -9.3 m | -7.6 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | -24.3 m | -151.7 m | -72.2 m | esef· 02 May 2023verified |
| Dividends paid | 64.9 m | 62.1 m | — | esef· 30 Mar 2022verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation62
- Quality69
- Returns63
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 18.1% | 64 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 22.1% | 87 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 71.6% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.1x | 53 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.9% | 74 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.7% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 78.8% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation62/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ARCHICOM SPÓŁKA AKCYJNA (ARH.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 499.7 m PLN in 2022; YoY growth -21.6%; net margin 22.1%; ROE 15.9%.
The estimated value range is 27.34–43.66 PLN per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 38.01 PLN, the price of 52.00 PLN leaves a potential of -26.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -36.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 22.1%
- Interest coverage: 11.9x
- Current ratio: 2.9x
- FCF yield: 5.9%
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| CAR.WAInter Cars Spółka Akcyjna | 14.8 bn | 21.2 | 17.0% | 3.9% | +18.0% | +86% / +79% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ARH.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 27.80 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 49.40 Total return -3% · Per year -3% | 74.75 Total return 46% · Per year 46% |
| 3 years | 22.08 Total return -54% · Per year -23% | 44.58 Total return -9% · Per year -3% | 74.75 Total return 51% · Per year 15% |
| 5 years | 17.53 Total return -60% · Per year -17% | 40.24 Total return -14% · Per year -3% | 74.75 Total return 56% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 11.15
- Net margin± 7.80
- Annual revenue growth± 7.05
- Annual dilution± 0.66
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Archicom is a Polish property developer focused almost entirely on residential projects in Wroclaw. In 2022 the company changed the timing of revenue recognition on apartment sales, which materially restated comparatives, and its outlook now depends on demand that is sensitive to high mortgage rates 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in the residential segment in Wroclaw and long experience in development.
- Internal process for land acquisition and project supervision with a focus on cost control.
- Land bank acquired at prices that reflect multi-year averages.
Weaknesses
- Strong dependence on a single regional market and a single product segment.
- Long capital cycles and positive cash flows arriving well after works begin.
- Comparability of figures is affected by the change in revenue recognition policy.
Opportunities
- Diversifying the offer across segments and client groups could reduce concentration risk.
- A decline in interest rates could revive mortgage demand.
- Stronger market position could provide access to better located land.
Threats
- High interest rates and bank lending restrictions can sharply reduce the number of buyers.
- Rising construction costs can compress project margins.
- Intense competition and new regulations may slow sales and raise costs.
Risks
- Long development cyclehigh
Projects require large capital before positive cash flows, and delays can tie up funds and raise costs.
- Interest rate sensitivityhigh
Higher rates make mortgages more expensive and can reduce both demand and project returns.
- Geographic concentrationhigh
Most revenue comes from Wroclaw, so local market performance directly drives results.
- Accounting policy changemedium
Changing the timing of revenue recognition makes comparison across data series difficult.
- Regulatory and administrative riskmedium
Delayed or challenged permits and new developer rules can postpone projects.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If rates stabilise or fall, housing demand in Wroclaw could recover quickly, given the company's leading position.
- A land bank bought at favourable prices could support margins in the following periods.
- Diversifying the business could reduce dependence on one market and one product type.
What would break the thesis
- If rates remain high, weaker mortgage demand could affect sales and cash flow.
- Rising construction costs could compress margins, especially on tightly budgeted projects.
- The accounting policy change makes comparison with earlier years harder and may obscure underlying trends.
What to watch
- Trend in residential sales and mortgage demandQuarterly 2027
- Construction cost levels and project marginsNext annual report
- Reference rate path and bank lending conditions2027
- Progress of discontinued and held-for-sale activitiesNext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Archicom group develops residential projects under the developer model, from land acquisition through sale and warranty. In 2022 management decided to concentrate the group on the residential segment and to sell other assets, treated as discontinued operations under IFRS 5 1. Revenue is now recognised on handover of the premises, after the use permit is obtained and almost full payment is received 1. The development cycle is long because projects absorb large capital before generating positive cash flows, which the company says arrive roughly six months or more after works begin 1.
The change in accounting policy moved the recognition point of revenue and restated the 2021 figures. Product sales revenue was increased by recognising amounts at handover, with related costs adjusted accordingly, so reported net profit rose versus the originally approved numbers 1. Investors should therefore compare series from different reports with care, since comparability is affected 1.
The company also reclassified project-related administrative costs and separated sales costs from general overheads. These presentation changes alter the reported expense structure and should be considered when interpreting margins 1.
Segments
Residential segment
The residential segment is the predominant part of the business and is concentrated in the Wroclaw market. Sales depend on mortgage rates and the creditworthiness of buyers, and the company noted that demand fell visibly in 2022 1.
Assets held for sale and discontinued activities
The company classified some assets as held for sale and presented the results of discontinued activities separately. This auxiliary part has a small weight in the main reporting but explains some structural items on the balance sheet 1.
Market context
The reference market is Wroclaw, regarded as one of the most attractive property markets in Poland, where competition is intense from both local and national developers 1. Demand weakened in 2022 after rate increases, and the number of mortgage applications in December 2022 was 63% lower than a year earlier, according to data cited by the company 1. The reference rate reached 6.75% in December 2022, a level that directly affects affordability for buyers 1.
The market also depends on the availability of serviced land and on administrative procedures, which can delay projects. Construction costs rose in earlier years, and the company monitors these costs constantly to protect margins 1.
Trends
- Rising interest ratesheadwind
Higher rates make mortgages more expensive and reduce the number of buyers, which can slow sales. If rates stay high, the impact on demand could persist into the following periods 1.
- Construction costsheadwind
Building materials and labour became more expensive in recent years, compressing project margins. The company tries to offset this through more professional procurement and by updating sale prices 1.
- Developer regulatory frameworkmixed
The new developer act, applicable from July 2022, changes the sales process and escrow accounts. In the short term implementation difficulties may arise, but clearer rules could stabilise processes over the longer term 1.
- Demand recovery after constraintsmixed
Lifting of pandemic restrictions and economic stabilisation could support demand over the medium term, although the company stresses that geopolitical uncertainty and inflation remain risk factors 1.
Competitive position
Competition in Wroclaw is intense, both for land acquisition and for the promotion and sale of projects. Many developers now offer similar quality, so location, range of offer and reputation become differentiating factors 1. Competitive pressure may force additional promotions, which reduces profitability 1.
The company says it diversifies its offer across product segments and client groups to reduce reliance on one market, seeking to use its position as the residential leader in Wroclaw 1.
- Local Wroclaw developers
Private or Warsaw-listed firms competing for the same land and buyers; not named in the source.
- National developers
Groups operating in several Polish cities that compete on price and promotion.
- Rival bidders for land
Competitors for serviced land, which influences the cost of the land bank.
- Other residential developers
Players offering similar housing that can influence prices and demand in the region.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202202 May 2023
- Annual report 202130 Mar 2022
- Annual report 202102 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Archicom Spółka Akcyjna · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.