olivLaw · European equity research
Grieg Seafood ASA GSF.OL
Norway · Euronext Oslo Børs · ISIN NO0010365521 · Vertical: Listed companies from Norway
Grieg Seafood ASA is a Norwegian producer of Atlantic salmon with operations in Norway, Canada and Newfoundland. The company reported a loss before tax of NOK 310 million for 2024 and is now focused on improving biological stability and strengthening a balance sheet after a difficult period.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Grieg Seafood ASA (GSF.OL) stock was 22.38 NOK (−0.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.1 bn NOK, P/E 2.8 on diluted EPS of 7.90 NOK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.45, 52-week range 22.38–77.85 NOK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 33.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.35 – 23.53
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.03 · band width 5.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 24.66 / 41.38
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.60 / -0.68
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.9% | −0.6% | −3.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −24.9% | −4.2% | −20.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −30.5% | +4.3% | −34.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −71.3% | +7.5% | −78.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −66.3% | +9.9% | −76.2 pp | −4.7% |
| 3 years | −67.8% | +49.8% | −117.6 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | −76.4% | +42.8% | −119.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.9, median 11.8, max 13.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −52.7% | +11.3% |
| Net income | 559.8 m | -2.5 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −537.8% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 5.00 | -21.90 | 7.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −538.0% | unavailable |
| net % | 8.0% | -73.9% | 30.0% |
| Free cash flow | -1.1 bn | -757.6 m | -328.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.0 bn NOK
- Financial debt
- 2.3 bn NOK
- Net debt
- -2.7 bn NOK
- Equity
- 4.5 bn NOK
- Total assets
- 8.7 bn NOK
- Debt / equity
- 0.52x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 25.9%
- ROA
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- -8.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (NOK)
Margins
Income statement · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 532.9 m | 114.8 m | 115.3 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 276.8 m | 324.9 m | 299.5 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 844.2 m | 24.9 m | 76.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 284.4 m | 238.3 m | -18.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 559.8 m | -2.5 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.00 | -21.90 | 7.90 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.50 | 1.75 | 0.00 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 216.3 m | 203.0 m | 5.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 230.1 m | 219.3 m | 140.6 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 727.1 m | 20.5 m | 20.5 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 13.7 bn | 13.0 bn | 8.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 760.8 m | 1.1 bn | 458.5 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 208.3 m | 1.6 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.0 bn | 8.9 bn | 4.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.7 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 112.0 m | 111.9 m | 140.5 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -302.0 m | 450.6 m | 405.2 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 790.0 m | 1.2 bn | 734.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.1 bn ≈ | -757.6 m ≈ | -328.8 m ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 255.7 m | -1.2 bn | 8.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -387.3 m | 761.0 m | -4.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 504.1 m | 196.2 m | — | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 5.5 m | 0 | 95.0 k | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.1 bn NOK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 30.0% | 97 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -29.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 2.8x | 90 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -10.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.2% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality49/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial89/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA (GSF.OL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.7 bn NOK in 2025; YoY growth 11.3%; net margin 30.0%; ROE 25.9%.
The estimated value range is 72.34–249.58 NOK per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 156.09 NOK, the price of 22.38 NOK leaves a potential of 597.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 85.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 30.0%
- P/E (TTM): 2.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -29.6%
- FCF yield: -10.5%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Norway · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKER.OLAker Asa | 79.8 bn | 20.3 | 7.9% | 21.4% | +42.5% | +36% / +59% |
| AFG.OLAf Gruppen Asa | 21.5 bn | 19.8 | 39.7% | 3.4% | +4.4% | +8% / +69% |
| ELK.OLElkem Asa | 19.2 bn | 39.3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | −15.7% | +10% / +73% |
| ATEA.OLAtea Asa | 18.5 bn | 21.4 | 19.7% | 2.3% | +8.1% | +11% / +36% |
| AKSO.OLAker Solutions Asa | 17.4 bn | 6.8 | 22.5% | 4.1% | +19.2% | +18% / −12% |
| AUSS.OLAustevoll Seafood Asa | 16.6 bn | 37.1 | 1.6% | 1.1% | +11.1% | −7% / +10% |
| BRG.OLBorregaard Asa | 15.6 bn | 25.1 | 11.4% | 8.0% | +1.3% | −18% / −9% |
| BONHR.OLBonheur ASA | 11.2 bn | 7.8 | 17.1% | 11.4% | −10.8% | +17% / +44% |
| AFK.OLArendals Fossekompani Asa | 10.3 bn | — | -2.3% | -3.1% | −14.9% | +39% / +31% |
| B2I.OLB2 Impact Asa | 8.8 bn | 14.3 | 11.0% | 16.4% | +2.6% | +40% / +238% |
| AKVA.OLAkva Group Asa | 5.7 bn | 31.2 | 13.7% | 4.2% | +24.4% | +74% / +152% |
| ELMRA.OLElmera Group Asa | 5.1 bn | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.3% | −0.9% | +32% / +98% |
| BOUV.OLBouvet Asa | 5.0 bn | 14.2 | 80.7% | 9.2% | −0.2% | −19% / −16% |
| CLOUD.OLCloudberry Clean Energy Asa | 4.0 bn | 61.9 | 1.3% | 13.1% | +34.0% | −5% / +29% |
| ABG.OLAbg Sundal Collier Holding Asa | 3.6 bn | 10.7 | 34.9% | 16.8% | +12.4% | −13% / +20% |
| GSF.OLGrieg Seafood Asa | 3.1 bn | 2.8 | 25.9% | 30.0% | +11.3% | −69% / −66% |
| ANDF.OLAndfjord Salmon Group As | 2.2 bn | — | -5.7% | -12,770.4% | +328.9% | −18% / −11% |
| BMA.OLByggma Asa | 1.6 bn | — | -25.3% | -11.9% | −2.5% | +61% / +15% |
| APR.OLAppear Asa | 1.4 bn | 10.5 | 30.1% | 16.1% | +32.3% | −53% / unavailable |
| AZT.OLArcticzymes Technologies Asa | 1.1 bn | 108.9 | 2.9% | 8.6% | +7.9% | −8% / −48% |
| CAPSL.OLCapsol Technologies Asa | 884.6 m | — | -89.4% | -114.8% | −25.0% | −33% / −66% |
| BOR.OLBorgestad Asa | 553.2 m | 36.1 | 2.1% | 1.4% | −3.0% | −7% / +41% |
| ARR.OLArribatec Group Asa | 234.6 m | 4.8 | 22.1% | 9.3% | +15.7% | −33% / −55% |
| DELIA.OLDellia Group Asa | 73.5 m | 1.5 | 22.6% | 7.7% | +140.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| ABTEC.OLAqua Bio Technology Asa | 11.1 m | 0.1 | — | 7,297.7% | −87.2% | −82% / −97% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GSF.OL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (NOK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.14 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 24.92 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 37.43 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 15.67 Total return -30% · Per year -11% | 30.89 Total return 38% · Per year 11% | 50.66 Total return 126% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 17.38 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 38.30 Total return 71% · Per year 11% | 68.58 Total return 206% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 7.72
- Net margin± 5.41
- Annual revenue growth± 4.16
- Annual dilution± 0.45
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Grieg Seafood ASA is a Norwegian producer of Atlantic salmon with operations in Norway, Canada and Newfoundland. The company reported a loss before tax of NOK 310 million for 2024 1 and is now focused on improving biological stability and strengthening a balance sheet after a difficult period.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has an integrated position with operations in several regions and value-added processing capacity in Norway and Canada.
- Investments in post-smolt offer a longer-term advantage in reducing biological risk.
- Global demand for sustainable protein remains a support for the company's activity.
Weaknesses
- The company reported a loss for 2024 and a low equity level, which limits financial flexibility.
- Reliance on high-value biological assets makes the balance sheet sensitive to production problems.
- The company could not distribute a dividend for the 2024 financial year due to insufficient liquidity.
Opportunities
- If post-smolt and Gardermoen processing investments perform as planned, the company could improve margins.
- A possible sale-leaseback of the Finnmark smolt facilities could strengthen liquidity.
- Rising salmon consumption in new markets could support long-term demand.
Threats
- Biological problems such as sea lice, disease and low oxygen events can quickly affect production.
- Regulation in Norway and Canada, including the resource rent tax, could reduce cash flow available to the company.
- Trade tariffs and antitrust investigations in Europe and the UK could bring additional costs.
Risks
- Biological riskhigh
Diseases, parasites and environmental events could reduce production and increase fish mortality, with direct effects on revenue.
- Financing and liquidity riskhigh
High net debt and low equity limit access to funding, and part of the debt carries floating interest rates.
- Canadian regulatory riskmedium
Uncertainty about licences and the transition plan in British Columbia could lead to further write-downs or asset losses.
- Trade tariff riskmedium
Tariffs on exports to the USA could reduce sales and pressure the prices the company achieves.
- Antitrust investigationsmedium
The European Commission investigation and civil claims in the UK over alleged anticompetitive arrangements could generate costs and penalties.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Salmon supply could remain limited in 2025, which could support prices, while better biological performance could improve volumes.
- If post-smolt and processing investments deliver results, the company could reduce costs and achieve better margins.
- The 2025 hybrid bond issue could strengthen equity and financial flexibility.
What would break the thesis
- Recurring biological problems could continue to affect volumes and costs, which could keep the company in loss.
- High net debt and low equity could limit the company's ability to invest and to pay dividends.
- Regulatory uncertainty in Canada and Norway could reduce asset values and delay investments.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and harvest volume against the target of 84000 tonnesQ1 2027
- Completion of the Gardermoen processing facility and pace of production ramp-up2025
- Progress of the Finnmark post-smolt unit and transfer of the first batch to sea2026
- Development of equity level and net debt in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Grieg Seafood produces Atlantic salmon in growing areas in Norway, Canada and Newfoundland, with activity covering both smolt production in freshwater facilities and sea-based growth. Book value of live fish excluding fair value adjustment was NOK 4202 million at year-end 2024 1, showing the high share of biological assets on the balance sheet. The company sells to markets in continental Europe and North America.
Segments
Norwegian operations
Rogaland and Finnmark are the main production bases, and the company is investing in post-smolt units that reduce the time fish spend in open sea pens. A 3000-tonne post-smolt unit is planned in Finnmark, with first transfer to sea expected in 2026 1.
Canada and Newfoundland operations
In British Columbia, political and regulatory uncertainty has led to impairment of seawater licences and goodwill, and growth investments in Newfoundland have been paused. The company notes the Canadian government plan to ban open net-pen salmon farming by 2029 1.
Value-added processing
A secondary processing facility at Gardermoen near Oslo is expected to be operational in the second half of 2025, with a capacity of 12000 tonnes 1. It aims to reduce the risk of low prices for production-grade fish.
Market context
Global supply of Atlantic salmon in 2025 is expected to increase compared with 2024, supported by better biological performance in most regions. The company expects average prices around EUR 7.30 per kg for full-year 2025, with less seasonality than in 2024 1. The USA accounted for 23% of sales in 2024, and an escalation of tariffs could reduce these sales 1.
Trends
- Rising demand for healthy proteintailwind
Consumers in Europe and emerging markets increasingly seek sustainable, high-quality protein, which supports long-term demand for salmon.
- Trade tensions and tariffsheadwind
Possible tariffs on Norwegian exports to the USA could affect prices and margins, and the company monitors these developments.
- Norwegian aquaculture regulationmixed
The Norwegian government proposal on coexistence with wild salmon and sea lice control could open growth opportunities for farmers who keep lice levels under control, but the timing is uncertain.
- Biological and cost pressuresheadwind
Biological problems in 2024 and capital-intensive post-smolt investments weighed on earnings and cash flow, while financing costs rise with market rates.
Competitive position
The Atlantic salmon market is dominated by Norwegian and Chilean producers, and competition rests on biological performance, production costs and access to sales markets. Grieg Seafood competes through its value-added processing capacity and its presence in Canada.
- Mowi ASA
Norwegian large-scale salmon producer with integrated operations in several countries.
- SalMar ASA
Norwegian salmon producer with extensive farming and processing activity.
- Cermaq
Salmon producer with operations in Chile and Canada, in direct competition in some markets.
- Bakkafrost P/F
Faroe Islands salmon producer with activity in Scotland and European markets.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202421 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Grieg Seafood ASA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.